jaxjagman

Looks like the system i said into the latter part of the first week of June is going to go north of the Valley.PNA has been showing more positive around the 6th through the 9th,unlike the earlier runs.But the crap winds right now,probably wouldn't have mattered anyways...lol

With the drought in the plains we shouldnt see a system going through Texas with more of a anti-cyclonic flow,seems like if something if it were to develop would either go east of Texas or go into Mexico,least right now anyways,but we'd rather see a tropical system as far west as you get though it might work out for you guys in the east but we need to see a storm first

Not only is the GOM favorable for tropical genesis,there is also potential with the favorable MJO in Asia for a recurving typhoon,if it were to evolve #activepotentialfortheValley

Slight risk now for the Western Valley,hail and wind tomorrow potential right now Should dry out in the Valley for few days then become unsettled again,we could get in the lower 90's around next weekend Middle Valley even hotter in the West Valley,east seems to be a dart throwing competition. Chance for tropical genesis once again into the GOM towards the mid month.If the Euro is right there would be a good trough coming through the Valley Mid month coming out of Asia in the long run.Either way,MJO,etc.,etc.,the wet pattern is coming back seemingly,we'll see. Above median precipitation is most likely for parts of the eastern Gulf Coast into the interior Southeast, where dynamical model forecasts, including the ECMWF, CFS, JMA, and SubX MME, indicate enhanced atmospheric moisture flow from the tropics, including the potential for tropical storm activity. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/

Was watching the radar and it looked like a band trained around the Chatty area for a couple hours around the time you are talking about.We got one good band with no thunder

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Wed May 30 2018 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MONTANA/WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA VICINITY...AS WELL AS THE MID MISSISSIPPI...LOWER OHIO...AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND SURROUNDING AREAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible Thursday from the Missouri Ozarks to the lower Ohio Valley and Tennessee Valleys as well as the northern High Plains and northern Rockies. ...Synopsis... A large upper trough near the West Coast at the start of the period is progged to advance slowly eastward toward the Intermountain West. Meanwhile, a smaller/shorter-wavelength trough will shift east across the Upper Great Lakes and Midwest regions and vicinity. At the surface, a cold front will progress slowly across the Intermountain West ahead of the western trough, while a second/weaker front crosses the Great Lakes region. Weaker troughing/low pressure -- enhanced by convective outflows -- is also expected to linger in a west-to-east zone from the Kansas/Oklahoma area into the lower Ohio Valley area. ...The Ozarks into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys... While the background environment across the region appears favorable for development of organized/severe storms Thursday, a somewhat complex/uncertain evolution of convective risk is evident -- largely due to overnight/late Day 1 convection which should be moving out of the Oklahoma/Kansas area across the Ozarks/southern Missouri vicinity. Models differ with respect to how widespread/organized the lingering convection is likely to be, and thus locations of associated convective outflows and associated cloud cover. In addition, some guidance suggests re-intensification of this convection early in the day as it crosses the Tennessee Valley vicinity, prior to the main round storms expected to develop later in the day. Given the uncertainties regarding early convective evolution and the effects on timing/location of subsequent development, will maintain 15%/SLGT risk across the region. As Day 1 convective evolution becomes more clear, an upgraded corridor of enhanced risk for Thursday may become necessary, as afternoon destabilization of the moist boundary layer away from convectively contaminated areas combined with enhanced mid-level westerlies associated with the advancing short-wave trough will result in an environment favorable for organized/severe storms. In general, loose agreement amongst various models suggests afternoon storm redevelopment over the vicinity of the Mid Mississippi/Lower Ohio Valleys, which could tend toward upscale growth toward linear/bowing segments. While some risk for a couple of tornadoes may evolve -- particularly near remnant boundaries, damaging winds along with some hail can be expected. Threat may continue through much of the evening, spreading eastward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Meanwhile, a broader zone of lesser risk appears to extend eastward to the Appalachians region, where ample afternoon CAPE but weaker flow aloft suggests more disorganized convection. A risk for damaging winds locally, along with some hail, can be expected with stronger cells from afternoon through early evening.

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Wed May 30 2018 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI...TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible Thursday from the Missouri Ozarks to the lower Ohio Valley and Tennessee Valleys as well as the northern High Plains. ...Synopsis... Synoptic trough will advance through the Great Lakes and OH Valley Thursday. A low-amplitude shortwave trough now approaching southern AZ will reach the middle MS Valley 12Z Thursday before continuing through the southern portion of the OH Valley during the day. Farther west a high-amplitude upper trough will move through the western states. At the start of the period a weak cold front should extend from the Great Lakes into the upper MS Valley and central Plains. A quasi-stationary/warm front will extend from a weak low in northwest TX through OK and the lower MS Valley, while dryline persists across west TX. Farther north a cold front will extend from the High Plains of MT through the northern Rockies. ...Southern MO through KY and TN... In the wake of Alberto, 70F dewpoints will reside in the warm sector. Meanwhile, an increase in westerly trajectories will contribute to eastward expansion of the elevated mixed layer through the lower MS and western portion of TN Valley above the very moist boundary layer. These processes and expected diabatic warming should result in moderate to strong instability with MLCAPE from 2000-2500 J/kg during the afternoon. Storms may be ongoing in association with progressive, low-amplitude shortwave trough from OK into southeast KS and southwest MO. Evolution of the early storms is uncertain, but new development and or intensification of additional storms along associated outflow boundaries may occur as the downstream atmosphere destabilizes. An increase in flow through the mid-levels accompanying the shortwave trough will contribute to 30-40 kt effective bulk shear supportive of some organized storm structures, including bowing segments with damaging wind and hail the primary threats from afternoon into the evening.

We had one good band, got about a half inch out of that.About it other than just a brief shower/light rain at times through out the day

Euro continues this pathetic severe season in the Valley,we can't even get a tropical system to produce..lol

Alberto got relocated further east today/tonight,so the storm is being shown further east on tonight's models,yeah that's how i feel..lol.The better winds are now being shown to the east of Middle Valley ,east of I-65 anyways,maybe more towards the plateau,but better potential flooding for us as it looks the system could go over Nashville right now,per GFS and NAM

Nice catch.I believe we are talking about the same system but i'm slower than what the models are showing or the models are fast,we shall see.Yesterday the the AO was being shown going negative and today it's being shown slightly positive with still a -PNA,less suppressed system

System going through Korea in the end of the month,PNA is going - while the NAO is up in the air and could go negative(not what we want,this would suppress the storm),if the NAO stays more neutral/positive we could see a decent system towards the end of the 1st week of June,we'll see

The cone just got expanded further east,typical no belief in the NAM..lol

Shift to the W on the Euro this afternoonThat's a large cone for our area, so there is alot of uncertainty for the Valley for the exact track.

16/9/4 June 2/0/0 July 3/1/0 August 3/3/2 September 5/3/2 October 3/2/0 November 0/0/0

IMME keeps the ENSO more neutral though summer and the Valley wet

The Valley looks fairly active through out the month of June, per the Dashboard.We should see a chance of thunderstorms pop back up Friday as the Upper ridge weakens and shifts east,then we'll see what or if the system in the GOM brings someone next week.

Been hanging out at the french quarters last week for a graduation (don't think i ever want to drink again) Jamstec did a reverse from it's last update.The IODI was closer to a +0.5 now hovering around +2 into Sept-Oct..What would have been more trough in the west with "AN" temps in the Valley this winter,is reversed with with more trough in the east and "BN" temps in the Valley.Stronger more modoki Nino look close if not a moderate one.No real signs of any let go with the wet pattern through fall,no signs of any drought anyways.

I took my contacts out last week because of the pollen then stuck them back in during the week-end.Wrong move,i now have an eye infection.This sucks also,nothing worse than something effecting your eyes,your whole body feels it.

Nashville is in danger of breaking the record high of 90 today set back in 2016

The NMME latest update this month starts to develop a Nino Modoki in August.Then a full basinwide weak Nino by Dec

Some signs of a wet June in the Valley.NMME and RRWT is showing it

SOI recently has taken some big swings.Wednesday looks questionable but both the GFS and Euro has a shortwave coming through Middle TN in the afternoon,so if something does pop it could get severe.GFS also shows some better bulk sheer tonight.Soundings just west of Nashville Edit:Euro still looks pathetic on the OZ Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 8 May 2018 1014.56 1011.85 9.06 -2.94 3.12 7 May 2018 1013.35 1013.75 -14.77 -2.93 2.71 6 May 2018 1013.17 1014.85 -24.57 -1.88 2.57 5 May 2018 1013.09 1013.65 -15.99 -0.39 2.62 4 May 2018 1014.37 1012.50 2.62 0.85 2.55

Yeah, the MJO is taking it's time seemingly getting out of Africa into the IO,than what's been modeled. Wednesday,the GFS recently the last couple runs have backed off the sheer in the west, CPC has nothing but a marginal risk .Euro don't still show a whole heck of alot of anything like you mentioned.Should be a better chance starting around mid month and beyond.Certainly with the MJO and the recent SOI crash it would seem that way anyways with a system into the 3rd week of May.If the BSR maps are close to anything right there would be a CF coming towards the Valley then stalling out.We'll see