jaxjagman

2010-11,i'm sure many of us thought this was going to be a great cold winter.Much BN temps "DJF" but when we got into"JFM",we torched.This warmth started into January and never let go

More Modoki looking right now

Official Nina

Been kinda busy today or i'd post more.Tornado watch for Western Valley URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 27 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 135 PM CDT Tue Apr 3 2018 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Much of Arkansas Southern and East-Central Illinois Southwest Indiana Western Kentucky Southeast Missouri Northwest Mississippi Western Tennessee * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 135 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph likely Widespread large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to rapidly form along a cold front this afternoon and track across the watch area. Very strong wind fields and instability suggest the potential for fast-moving severe storms capable of large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. Strong tornadoes will be possible with the most intense storms. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 105 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles south southwest of Hot Springs AR to 65 miles north of Evansville IN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Tue Apr 03 2018 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWEST OHIO...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INDIANA...AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS SOUTHWEST TO EASTERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE ENH RISK AREA...AND EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO LAKE ERIE AND SOUTHWEST TO EASTERN TEXAS... ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE SLGT AND ENH RISK AREAS... CORRECTED FOR GENERAL THUNDER OUTLINE AREA ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms -- including risk for wind damage, large hail and a few tornadoes -- are expected from parts of the Ohio Valley southwestward into the mid and lower Mississippi Valley and Tennessee Valleys, and into the southern Plains. An enhanced threat for wind damage may occur across parts of the lower Ohio/mid Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys. ...Synopsis... An energetic short-wave upper trough -- phased with a weaker system crossing northern Mexico at the start of the period -- will sweep across the Plains and into the Great Lakes and Midwest/Ohio Valley today and tonight. Flanking the progressing trough, ridging will persist over both the western and eastern portions of the country. At the surface, a low is forecast to deepen with time while shifting northeast out of the Kansas/Oklahoma vicinity across Missouri and into the Midwest through the day. In conjunction, a sharpening cold front will sweep southeast across the central U.S. a the leading edge of a surge of cold Canadian air. By early evening, the front should extend from the low -- over the northern Indiana vicinity -- southwest across the lower Ohio and mid Mississippi Valleys and into east Texas, with a band of showers and thunderstorms in the vicinity of the advancing boundary. By the end of the period, the front will likely be cresting the Appalachians, while convection will likely have weakened to below severe levels. ...Lower Great Lakes southwest to parts of eastern Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley... As surface low pressure deepens/shifts northeastward toward the Midwest through the day, low-level warm/moist advection will allow the spread of higher theta-e air to advance into the Midwest/Ohio Valley ahead of the progressing cold front. With the associated upper system remaining well to the west through the day and thus little to no height falls during the day, capping should largely hinder convective development within the pre-frontal warm sector. By 20 to 21Z, both operational NAM and GFS runs along with most CAMs do initiate pre-frontal storms over East Texas, despite the forecast capping within the warm sector. Should this convection develop, and in cellular manner, very large hail would be possible given the degree of CAPE. More likely however, storm development will await the frontal approach, and become largely anafrontal with time. Still, risk for hail and locally damaging winds is evident, along with a tornado or two, as storms evolve and spread eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley area and -- eventually -- the central Gulf Coast states. Farther north, weaker instability but stronger flow aloft -- and stronger ascent -- is anticipated, particularly into the late afternoon and evening hours as the front sharpens ahead of the quickly advancing upper system. Given the aforementioned capping in the warm sector, storms initiating near the boundary should quickly grow upscale into at least broken linear mode, with damaging winds to become the primary severe risk. Some hail will be possible, along with a few tornadoes -- especially with initial, possibly more cellular storm mode. As convection grows upscale, strong west-southwest flow aloft suggests fast storm motion and potential for relatively widespread damaging winds. The corridor for the greatest damaging-wind risk -- corresponding with the ENH risk area -- will likely be concentrated from southern Indiana/southwest Ohio southwestward into the Mississippi Delta region. By mid to late evening, gradual/diurnal weakening of convection is expected, with severe risk to wane into the overnight hours as convection reaches the Appalachians. ..Goss.. 04/03/2018

Here's a abstract for the MJO,i've been out of town and just got back or i'd have replied back sooner. Abstract The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) has been linked to weather variability in the midlatitudes via its associated overturning circulations and Rossby wave trains that redistribute the thermal and mass fields at higher latitudes. This work examines the relationship between the MJO and violent tornado outbreaks in the United States. A census of events shows that violent tornado outbreaks during March–April–May (MAM) are more than twice as frequent during phase 2 of the Real-time Multivariate MJO (RMM) index as during other phases or when the MJO was deemed inactive. Composite analyses show the global circulation patterns simultaneously associated with the MJO and the tornado outbreaks and also indicate the most favored low-frequency circulation pattern that precedes tornado outbreaks in RMM phase 2. An index of 300-hPa geopotential height data is generated by projecting 60-day mean values onto the composite low-frequency pattern. When that index exceeds one standard deviation and the MJO is in RMM phase 2 with an amplitude exceeding one standard deviation during MAM, violent tornado outbreaks occur 50% of the time, relative to the average frequency of less than 4%. Results demonstrate that the anomalous large-scale midlatitude circulation modulated by the MJO and lower-frequency signals can make conditions more or less favorable for tornado outbreaks. https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/MWR-D-12-00173.1 Here's a paper on the GWO https://www.researchgate.net/publication/284217379_Tornado_frequency_in_the_United_States_related_to_global_relative_angular_momentum

The Euro looks more the GFS tonight,either way some parts of the Valley would see some strong storms possibly Tuesday

Looking down the road, Asia is fixing to get cranking in the long range by day 6-7 day period.The MJO is being shown into the IO the 2nd week of March,the AAM is crashing almost -3 sigma.Papers documented with the the MJO getting into the IO and the AAM gets into lower phase 2 shows large tornadoes would be possible during this period in a Nina year.It don't mean for the Valley,just worth mentioning

Also some good analogs showing up,for Tuesday

Chance for some severe storms Tuesday into Tuesday evening by both the GFS and Euro.But as to what extent is yet to be determined.The key player for what i see is how the models this afternoon handle a shortwave trough.The GFS is showing the feature suppressed into Dixie Alley while the Euro is showing this trough into the TN Valley.This would have more ramifications with severe for us in the Valley "IF" the Euro is right.

17 Mar 2018 1012.51 1000.90 35.90 6.47 1.33 18 Mar 2018 1013.04 1006.25 12.83 7.15 1.58 19 Mar 2018 1012.24 1009.65 -7.28 7.35 1.57 20 Mar 2018 1010.11 1007.75 -8.38 7.51 1.49 21 Mar 2018 1008.59 1005.75 -6.08 7.82 1.45 22 Mar 2018 1010.01 1004.20 8.14 8.52 1.65 23 Mar 2018 1012.84 1003.70 24.08 9.45 2.06 24 Mar 2018 1014.29 1005.35 23.12 9.73 2.42 25 Mar 2018 1014.02 1007.00 13.93 9.42 The big drop in the SOI into Mid March would show volatility around the time frame mentioned above

Asia shows a trough going through Mongolia by day 7 on the Euro then a upper low into China,the typhoon is still being shown to die out.Either way towards the end of week one into week 2 of April we could be once again looking at a good system.The whole chorus this late winter into early spring has been suppressed systems.But still i see some good signals.On the RRWT lifted Index it's showing the lift tapping into the GOM and coming into the lower OV,with the BSR maps showing a warm front lifting northward into the lower OV with a cold front on it's heels.

Long range the MJO is being shown by the GEFS getting into phase 7 pretty amped up almost 2 sigma,Euro, comes out into 7 less amped.Either could be right as the Euro don't like phase 6 for some reason,we talked about this is the fall thread.The MJO though after getting into the IO starts to lose it's signal so maybe likely it goes back into the COD,still aways off so some uncertainty Long range models shows a typhoon into the Pacific.Euro yesterday had a upper low into North Korea with a still strong typhoon,today it has a typhoon much weaker and the low is into China.Not sure about the long range towards the 2nd week of April

Yeah, i agree, the GFS has no support from any model with the progression it's showing.But the Euro did shift east today.So we'll see.You'd think the models would have this figured out by now without the chaos.Either way by the Euro guidance the the heavy rains would be in the eastern valley as this afternoon's run shows,there is some KI and the showalter is not impressive ,very little instability for convective storms

The Euro and GFS are going back and forth.The Euro has been further south with the surface low and GFS North.They flip flopped today the GFS is further south and the Euro is coming trough Mid Tn

That would be some serious rain in a 48-hour period.Slow moving front with short waves riding it then a developing surface low comes up Mid Tn.Either way, there is a good chance someone in the Valley is going to see some healthy rains with flooding potential next week

That's some big hail for the south https://www.weather.gov/hun/event_03192018_hail

Nina hanging.There is a KW coming up the next couple of days east of the IDL

Cullman,Al https://www.facebook.com/billy.hulsey.7/videos/1572115492837427/

Headed towards Tallapoosa

That's ugly

Cell headed towards Albertville,looks like close to sisters

Cell headed nearAlbertville,nice rotation

Mesoscale Discussion 0144 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018 Areas affected...Northeast MS and Northwest AL Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 191618Z - 191745Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Large hail may accompany small thunderstorm cluster as it tracks across northeast MS into northwest AL over the next few hours. At this time do not anticipate issuing a short-term severe thunderstorm watch. DISCUSSION...Long-lived cluster of convection has tracked from southwest AR into northeast MS. Over the last hour or so it appears updraft strength with this activity has intensified along nose of low-level warm/moist advection. Hail algorithm supports this with MRMS data exhibiting sizes possibly in excess of 1.5". Given the overall air mass destabilization expected into northern AL over the next few hours it appears this activity could maintain its intensity along with primarily a hail threat. More intense supercells are expected to develop along the western/southern flank of this early-day convection. At that time more significant severe threat, including the possibility for tornadoes, should evolve. ..Darrow/Grams.. 03/19/2018