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jaxjagman

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  1. jaxjagman
    Models are whiffing in our area,the last several days.Temps by both the GFS and Euro showed highs of 83 today,more than likely from moisture that never happened.We so far are 93 with a HI-101
  2. jaxjagman
    Yeah,i was taking a nap and missed it :(.I caught the storm on my radar after it passed Lawrence Co.But it as well put up a couple OFB's into Alabama and So.Middle Tn late afternoon,we can't get nothing here
  3. jaxjagman
    Yeah i agree.The MJO is fixing to get into the IO around by the looks the next day or so by the Euro,the GEFS like normal into the IO is doing a funky dance and wants to retrograde the MJO back towards Africa But the Euro shows the MJO slowing down as it progresses back into the COD,going into the COD isn't a bad thing though,especially when it get's into region 4,stronger MJO into that region,potential SER in July. For temps upcoming,who knows if it's right,right now.The Euro shows the warmest temps in the TYS area with temps hitting 99 and DP's at 68.8,this would be a heat index of 106 next Saturday
  4. jaxjagman
    Storms are firing up a long a new OFB in Southern Middle Valley
  5. jaxjagman
    Deleted my earlier post by mistake. Asia shows the heights rising and ridging on going , so it's looking like a potential height rise in the Valley somewhere for possibly the highest temps of the season upcoming
  6. jaxjagman
    I have a friend who lives in Loretto,Tn who shared some pics on my facebook page.Tore some of his shingles off his home,tore his gutter almost completely off and threw his trampoline across his yard into the woods,plus numerous trees uprooted,that was a violent storm that swept through like you said
  7. jaxjagman
    We totally whiffed out of what the models showed.We should have gotten more rain here.Friday was the killer to start with,with the dry air intrusion that neither the GFS or Euro showed.Don't think we even got a quarter inch of rain from this mess the last couple days here, didn't expect much in the way of severe here,but i thought we'd at least get more rain...sigh... Hopefully we get some good storms over night.GFS shows MUCapes above 5k in the afternoon in the Mid Valley Sunday,what were those lotto numbers again?
  8. jaxjagman
    Slight risk tomorrow,southern areas.Nashville seems to think the slight risk will be expanded,so we'll see what the next update shows.For today so far: ...MO/AR into KY/TN/MS... A cold front currently extends from central MO into northeast AR. Scattered thunderstorms will develop along this front this afternoon, spreading eastward into parts of western KY/TN and northern MS this evening. Relatively strong wind fields in this area suggest some risk of severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts. A consensus of model solutions suggest that afternoon t-td spreads will only be the 10-12 degree F range. This combined with poor mid-level lapse rates lend uncertainty to a more robust severe event. This area will be monitored in later updates.
  9. jaxjagman
    Marginal for Thurs,Western Valley ...Mid to lower MS Valley... Cool air aloft with the upper trough and ample low-level moisture will lead to areas of 1000-2000 J/kg MUCAPE from TX to IL. Complicating this forecast scenario will be widespread precipitation and clouds early in the day. However, a plume of heating and steepening low-level lapse rates is expected to develop mainly along and west of the MS river. Given cool temperatures aloft, an arc of diurnal re-development is expected. Hail and wind will be possible, and portions of the area may eventually be upgraded to a Slight Risk once predictability issues decrease in later outlooks. Marginal for most of all the Valley,with the exception of the far NW ...Lower MS Valley to the OH Valley... A large area of thunderstorm potential will exist from the MS River to the Appalachians with substantial moisture in place and relatively cool air aloft with the upper trough. The most likely area for severe storms appears to be from the Arklatex into northern AL, and northward into KY. However, given the likelihood of antecedent outflows and early/ongoing storms, predictability is low. A Slight Risk may be needed in some parts of the area in later outlooks Possibly a decent MCS late night Sat into Sunday morning,as to where it goes is the question.But the Euro and GFS both show it right now
  10. jaxjagman
    When i lived in Jacksonville when the westerly winds kicked in it would fire up some good storms off the St.Johns river during the summer and like Carver said the sea breeze would hold everything back of the Inter Coastal Waterways in Jax.You could be at the beach and it'd be sunny but back to the west it would be black,miss those storms.
  11. jaxjagman
    Yeah at least right now we have some jet and shear showing to work with during the time frame you mentioned.
  12. jaxjagman
    We've had some nice cells the last couple days here,but they've missed our house :(Really need some rain for my lawn.Drove through a nice burst this afternoon after my daughters dance class,knocked out some small branches,election signs were thrown everywhere and even saw a line down on Nolensville Pk
  13. jaxjagman

    ENSO

    jaxjagman replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html
  14. jaxjagman

    ENSO

    jaxjagman replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    Like the way the IMME looks into fall severe season"Modoki" in which Modoki goes from JULY-DEC .But into Dec it's showing the warmest SST'S into region 3.But it's much weaker than the NMME with it's basin wide moderate look,but we're still talking months away
  15. jaxjagman
    We had 1.5" here yesterday.Even had the tornado sirens go off but only by a malfunction in the system,least i know they are still working..lol http://fox17.com/news/local/malfunction-caused-sirens-to-go-off-in-williamson-county-no-emergency
  16. jaxjagman

    ENSO

    jaxjagman replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    Warm waters in the thermocline in region 3 and 3.4 showing up.NMME shows this into July reaching the surface
  17. jaxjagman
    Models seem to be keying on Texas for any tropical genesis upcoming,but that could very well change at this point.Euro wants to hint at a ridge building into the Valley for a couple days in the long range,it shows upper 90's around the Memphis area.Potential typhoon re-curving off Japan in a few days,models will more than likely struggle in the longer range if this were to actually happen
  18. jaxjagman
    3-4 week outlook by the CPC looks similar to what to the NMME and weeklies showed yesterday.There is a decent WWB coming up W120 and a weaker EWB E120.NMME shows a Modoki look into July,though maybe into more region 3, SST's +1,looking hot this summer.
  19. jaxjagman
    The NMME is slightly warmer Into Jan,but by far no scorcher,not right now anyways.Warm and wet in time for severe fall in Nov.
  20. jaxjagman
    The NMME looks hot in July- August with the Western ridge expanding into the Mid Valley.Modoki for the Enso.The central and western portions dry out and more wet and cooler in the east,seems to be the trend right now happening as of late Edit:The weeklies are even hinting at this tonight.
  21. jaxjagman
    The MJO looks to show stronger signals into around the Caribbean/GOM in a couple weeks,plus with a passing Kelvin.It wouldn't totally surprise me if the GFS is right,it's been showing tropical genesis forever it seems.Euro don't really show much right now,but there looks to be a wave it shows headed towards the Yucatan,but it doesn't develop it.
  22. jaxjagman
    Kudos to Ryan Weathers for making the player of the year.My son played with him in Loretto Tn.Son of David Weathers.I remember him playing t-ball and watching him hit,the kids would gather over the right field fence waiting for him to hit one over the fence..lol.David ,his dad played in the majors for 18 seasons.The draft for MLB starts tomorrow,he won't last to the Braves picking 8th or KC 18TH Mize of Auburn is going #1 just don't see Weathers going to far down as a LH pitcher https://www.tennessean.com/story/sports/high-school/2018/05/31/gatorade-national-baseball-player-year-ryan-weathers-mlb-draft-vanderbilt-loretto/658850002/
  23. jaxjagman
    Humidity in the mid 50's,don't feel like summer tonight
  24. jaxjagman
    Some of you guys in the east have seen some good rains by the looks the last 30-days,maybe more towards the TN and NC line.I'm trying to figure out what's going on with my lawn.I'm starting to get brown patches i even turned on my sprinkler system in the late afternoon the past week and it seems to be getting worse,no clue.:(
  25. jaxjagman
    Depression headed towards Vietnam,don't really see nothing of a typhoon right now with also clouds even further east of that which could develop something.Asia though looks really active in the long range from VietNam into Korea.This bodes well with a potential wet pattern, MJO towards the mid month and beyond for the Valley.Seems odd middle of June potential though in summer we see a potential wet pattern like this compared to past summer times
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