jaxjagman

You should be able to edit the topic by doing it on your first original post that you started the topic with

Think i agree,either a thread should be made or move this to summer

Cool,i was just saying this isn't near Hugo critique.The track of Hugo mentioned above isn't even close.The worse case of this storm is if the storm were to stall out of the Carolina's as the HP breaks down before it gets kicked out.

I don't think this is more Hugo.Hugo came from a different longitude and latitude and even hit Puerto Rico.This seems to be a different beast and there has never been a hurricane to hit the coast line without it re-curving away from the mainland since the 1850's?, with it's present location.

NMME was slightly warmer than last update Edit: NMME was slightly cooler not warmer

Picking up my son from college @ Auburn in the morning then going to Atlanta for Washington vs Auburn.Then staying for the Red Sox vs Braves game Monday afternoon.i'm gonna have to crush my piggy bank after this weekend. I really wish Auburn #9 wasn't playing Washington #6 this early ,should be the game of the week.If we win it should vault us into the the top 5.But i'm not sure what this team will be,we already lost our top 2 WR's in the spring,plus no Keyron

DCA: +2.0 NYC: +2.4 BOS: +1.9 ORD: +1.3  ATL: +1.0 IAH: +1.3 DEN + 0.3 PHX: +1.4 SEA: 0.0 TV

One of the big differences in the Jamstec compared to last runs is how much cooler the SST's are in the Gulf of Alaska in "DJF" and for that even matter even into the Bearing Sea You can get the Modoki index from the pull down Parameter tab http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/e/seasonal/outlook.html

Jamstec looks close to the same with the ENSO,maybe kinda similar to the IMME?Compared to the last seasonal update The big difference to me on the Jamstec from the last update is how much cooler the SST's are in the Gulf of Alaska/Bearing Sea.Maybe it's an outlier or maybe it's not,but this run is much warmer in winter time

IMME shows a stronger NINO into winter.Dec looks warm,then cooling into Jan as it looks to be more MODOKI by FEB as it's starting to weaken.Region 4 has been warming up recently as the warmer waters are working it's way up to the surface in the thermocline

Still looks to be a more substantial down welling KW towards the end of the month into Sept.This is where the NMME and it's most counterparts start to kick in Nino or more Modoki leading into fall,so we'll see

The Solar cycle definite went south in July compared to June.So it'll be interesting to follow this into,later on.Enso there is a DWKW into region 4,but it dont look to make it past much further into 3.4,you can see the waters warming into region 4 recently

Potential for a decent KW towards the end of the month into Sept,but this certainly could change at this point but the MJO looks like it could get stronger into the Maritime .There looks to be a more dying one ongoing right now but it's still is getting into 3.4 the next couple days.

The NMME didn't change much from the last update,still looks more Modoki in fall then less Modoki into winter

Not very much change from last month

Yeah they both are screwed up.One rule i dont like in college is the pass interference,that should be a spot foul. NFL can't even figure out what a catch is.You can throw to the sideline and all you have to do is have two feet down and control.You throw horizontal you have to have two feet down,control plus make a football player move.The heck with the player football move.When you have two feet down and control that should be a catch,if someone comes and waste you and you fumble,too bad, so sad.

I really wish the NCAA and NFL would both have the same rules.Keep it simple.

Usually an early SSWE means a end to winter sooner than later but not all the time.In Feb we warmed up near 80 into the 3rd week and never got below 40 again past mid month Edit:this is 1984-85

Abstract [1] Stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) are a major source of variability during Northern Hemisphere winter. The frequency of occurrence of SSWs is influenced by El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO), the 11 year solar cycle, and volcanic eruptions. This study investigates the role of ENSO and the QBO on the frequency of SSWs using the National Center for Atmospheric Research's Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model, version 3.5 (WACCM3.5). In addition to a control simulation, WACCM3.5 simulations with different combinations of natural variability factors such as the QBO and variable sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are performed to investigate the role of QBO and ENSO. Removing only one forcing, variable SSTs or QBO, yields a SSW frequency similar to that in the control experiment; however, removing both forcings results in a significantly decreased SSW frequency. These results imply nonlinear interactions between ENSO and QBO signals in the polar stratosphere during Northern Hemisphere winter. This study also suggests that ENSO and QBO force SSWs differently. The QBO forces SSW events that are very intense and whose impact on the stratospheric temperature can be seen between December and June, whereas ENSO forces less intense SSWs whose response is primarily confined to the months of January, February, and March. The effects of SSWs on the stratospheric background climate is also addressed here. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2011JD015757

84-85 you posted on the other page was a developing Nina but in 1984 we had an early SSWE in Dec.Then into Jan we really felt the artic plunge with all time record lows for any date, for many places in the Valley

First off,i was just pointing out what the QBO was showing NOW.I never in insinuated because it was so negative now that it would be a a cold winter,just wanted to clear that up.You can go up to the July,28 post i made above back then and putting some comparison to the 2009-10 winter.But the ENSO surely doesn't seem to acting like 2009,not right now anyways.

Good point about 94-95,the qbo was rather strongly negative in July with Nino starting to develop into ASO,seems it would fit the pattern tho than 01-02 when the ENSO was neutral,but who knows either might be right,3.4 has yet to get shown into Nino land

QBO broke another record for July like June coming in at -29.10,this is back to back record months for this year.The most negative in any month on ESRL shows was back into Nov.2005 when it reached -29.55 so this month of July ranks 2nd all-time

There has been a down welling Kelvin Wave recently into 3.4,tried to find a dictionary resemblance somewhat to help understand Downwelling phase: Normally, winds blow from east to west across the tropical Pacific, which piles up warm water in the western Pacific. A weakening of these winds starts the surface layer of water cascading eastward. The thick warm layer sloshes east, pushing down the thermocline as it goes, thus we call this a “downwelling” wave. The thermocline is the boundary between the warmer, near surface mixed layer and colder deeper water (4). Because of this downward push as the wave travels eastward, it is harder for the colder, deeper water to affect the surface so near-surface temperatures are often above average. This will often (not always) warm the surface temperatures and plant the seeds for an El Niño (5).

But is this more from a decent KW downwelling?Your map didn't pull up but WEST of the IDL and even east of the IDL is showing the thermocline around +2 on the triton,i assume that was the map you meant to post?It still looks warmer in the thermocline towards the surface into 3.4 than it does into or around the IDO