jaxjagman

Also some good analogs showing up,for Tuesday

Chance for some severe storms Tuesday into Tuesday evening by both the GFS and Euro.But as to what extent is yet to be determined.The key player for what i see is how the models this afternoon handle a shortwave trough.The GFS is showing the feature suppressed into Dixie Alley while the Euro is showing this trough into the TN Valley.This would have more ramifications with severe for us in the Valley "IF" the Euro is right.

17 Mar 2018 1012.51 1000.90 35.90 6.47 1.33 18 Mar 2018 1013.04 1006.25 12.83 7.15 1.58 19 Mar 2018 1012.24 1009.65 -7.28 7.35 1.57 20 Mar 2018 1010.11 1007.75 -8.38 7.51 1.49 21 Mar 2018 1008.59 1005.75 -6.08 7.82 1.45 22 Mar 2018 1010.01 1004.20 8.14 8.52 1.65 23 Mar 2018 1012.84 1003.70 24.08 9.45 2.06 24 Mar 2018 1014.29 1005.35 23.12 9.73 2.42 25 Mar 2018 1014.02 1007.00 13.93 9.42 The big drop in the SOI into Mid March would show volatility around the time frame mentioned above

Asia shows a trough going through Mongolia by day 7 on the Euro then a upper low into China,the typhoon is still being shown to die out.Either way towards the end of week one into week 2 of April we could be once again looking at a good system.The whole chorus this late winter into early spring has been suppressed systems.But still i see some good signals.On the RRWT lifted Index it's showing the lift tapping into the GOM and coming into the lower OV,with the BSR maps showing a warm front lifting northward into the lower OV with a cold front on it's heels.

Long range the MJO is being shown by the GEFS getting into phase 7 pretty amped up almost 2 sigma,Euro, comes out into 7 less amped.Either could be right as the Euro don't like phase 6 for some reason,we talked about this is the fall thread.The MJO though after getting into the IO starts to lose it's signal so maybe likely it goes back into the COD,still aways off so some uncertainty Long range models shows a typhoon into the Pacific.Euro yesterday had a upper low into North Korea with a still strong typhoon,today it has a typhoon much weaker and the low is into China.Not sure about the long range towards the 2nd week of April

Yeah, i agree, the GFS has no support from any model with the progression it's showing.But the Euro did shift east today.So we'll see.You'd think the models would have this figured out by now without the chaos.Either way by the Euro guidance the the heavy rains would be in the eastern valley as this afternoon's run shows,there is some KI and the showalter is not impressive ,very little instability for convective storms

The Euro and GFS are going back and forth.The Euro has been further south with the surface low and GFS North.They flip flopped today the GFS is further south and the Euro is coming trough Mid Tn

That would be some serious rain in a 48-hour period.Slow moving front with short waves riding it then a developing surface low comes up Mid Tn.Either way, there is a good chance someone in the Valley is going to see some healthy rains with flooding potential next week

That's some big hail for the south https://www.weather.gov/hun/event_03192018_hail

Nina hanging.There is a KW coming up the next couple of days east of the IDL

Cullman,Al https://www.facebook.com/billy.hulsey.7/videos/1572115492837427/

Headed towards Tallapoosa

That's ugly

Cell headed towards Albertville,looks like close to sisters

Cell headed nearAlbertville,nice rotation

Mesoscale Discussion 0144 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018 Areas affected...Northeast MS and Northwest AL Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 191618Z - 191745Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Large hail may accompany small thunderstorm cluster as it tracks across northeast MS into northwest AL over the next few hours. At this time do not anticipate issuing a short-term severe thunderstorm watch. DISCUSSION...Long-lived cluster of convection has tracked from southwest AR into northeast MS. Over the last hour or so it appears updraft strength with this activity has intensified along nose of low-level warm/moist advection. Hail algorithm supports this with MRMS data exhibiting sizes possibly in excess of 1.5". Given the overall air mass destabilization expected into northern AL over the next few hours it appears this activity could maintain its intensity along with primarily a hail threat. More intense supercells are expected to develop along the western/southern flank of this early-day convection. At that time more significant severe threat, including the possibility for tornadoes, should evolve. ..Darrow/Grams.. 03/19/2018

Didn't take long

You going out Jeff?

Mesoscale Discussion 0143 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0952 AM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018 Areas affected...north-central and northern AL...northwest GA...far southern middle TN Concerning...Outlook upgrade Valid 191452Z - 191615Z SUMMARY...An upgrade to a Moderate Risk categorical outlook (driven by a 15% significant tornado risk) is planned for the 1630Z outlook. DISCUSSION...It appears increasingly probable the risk for several tornadic supercells will traverse across northern portions of AL late this afternoon and through the early evening. Thunderstorm activity will be largely void across a large part of this area (north-central AL) prior to peak heating and a moderately unstable airmass is expected to develop by mid afternoon. The arrival of a speed max in the mid-levels will correspondingly lead to a marked strengthening in low-level flow and increasing hodograph size, which will be more favorable for supercells and low-level mesocyclones. Given these factors, confidence has increased such that a 15% significant tornado risk and the potential for longer lived supercells and damaging tornadoes will focus across north-central and northern AL, far southern middle TN beginning during the late afternoon/early evening, then moving east into northeast AL and far northwest GA later this evening.

The latest NAM takes the low into north Alabama,i really can't believe the GFS or Euro would be this far off in the short range,but could be.The GFS 0z went further north into Kentucky,how insane is this

Jamstec is hinting at a potential to a more neutral Nina pattern into fall,this would be good if it's right for next winter though. If it's right and holds on with the colder SST'S in region 3 into 1+2,also,it would be good for severe fall maybe

The latest SOI took a big rise and a big drop recently,have to keep watching the long range forecast into the1st week to the 2nd week of April Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 18 Mar 2018 1013.04 1006.25 12.83 7.15 1.58 17 Mar 2018 1012.51 1000.90 35.90 6.47 1.33 16 Mar 2018 1011.36 1006.15 5.26 4.81 0.71 15 Mar 2018 1011.20 1006.85 1.15 3.90 0.44 14 Mar 2018 1011.61 1007.00 2.39 3.15 0.29

Looking around Mid Tn around 3 tomorrow afternoon the GFS shows the the TT's around 58 and the Showalter -4 to -5 with steep lapse rates 8.0, bulk shear around 80kts Edit:This would be just west of Nashville

SREF has a small 45% marker in N/Alabama,it backed down away from Nashville as well as the last NAM while the GFS is now showing more instability to the Ky border