jaxjagman

FWIW El Niño ALERT; positive Indian Ocean Dipole likely underway The Bureau's ENSO Outlook has been raised to El Niño ALERT. This means there is approximately a 70% chance of El Niño occurring in 2018—around triple the normal likelihood. Similarly, in the Indian Ocean, a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) may have started. When combined, these two events in spring increase the possibility of a dry and warm end to the year. It also raises the risk of heatwaves and bushfire weather in the south, but reduces the risk of tropical cyclone activity in the north. The tropical Pacific Ocean has warmed in recent weeks due to weakening of the trade winds, while the Southern Oscillation Index has fallen to typical El Niño levels. Models suggest further warming of the Pacific is likely. Four of eight models predict El Niño thresholds will likely be exceeded in the coming months, with another two falling just short. In the Indian Ocean, there are signs that a positive IOD is currently underway. The IOD index has exceeded the threshold (+0.4 °C) for the last four weeks. However, these values must persist until November for it to be considered a positive IOD event. Model outlooks suggest positive IOD values are likely to continue through the austral spring, before returning to neutral values in late November to December.

Looks warm in Dec +1,Jan and Feb, neutral.But like you said it shows a more basin wide moderate Nino

Surprised it isn't warmer.The temps in the SE it'd be more Miller A,good for the east

Meh

The IMME updated so it's plume should be correct than what i posted above on the 8th The IMME is cooler this update,it showed a moderate Nino last month but now shows a weak Nino but the warmer SST's are in region 3 ever so slightly,not even sure that's worth mentioning but that's what it shows

Jamstec warmed up this run,shows a moderate Nino into the winter months.

NMME was slightly warmer than last update Edit: NMME was slightly cooler not warmer

Jamstec looks close to the same with the ENSO,maybe kinda similar to the IMME?Compared to the last seasonal update The big difference to me on the Jamstec from the last update is how much cooler the SST's are in the Gulf of Alaska/Bearing Sea.Maybe it's an outlier or maybe it's not,but this run is much warmer in winter time

IMME shows a stronger NINO into winter.Dec looks warm,then cooling into Jan as it looks to be more MODOKI by FEB as it's starting to weaken.Region 4 has been warming up recently as the warmer waters are working it's way up to the surface in the thermocline

Potential for a decent KW towards the end of the month into Sept,but this certainly could change at this point but the MJO looks like it could get stronger into the Maritime .There looks to be a more dying one ongoing right now but it's still is getting into 3.4 the next couple days.

Not very much change from last month

There has been a down welling Kelvin Wave recently into 3.4,tried to find a dictionary resemblance somewhat to help understand Downwelling phase: Normally, winds blow from east to west across the tropical Pacific, which piles up warm water in the western Pacific. A weakening of these winds starts the surface layer of water cascading eastward. The thick warm layer sloshes east, pushing down the thermocline as it goes, thus we call this a “downwelling” wave. The thermocline is the boundary between the warmer, near surface mixed layer and colder deeper water (4). Because of this downward push as the wave travels eastward, it is harder for the colder, deeper water to affect the surface so near-surface temperatures are often above average. This will often (not always) warm the surface temperatures and plant the seeds for an El Niño (5).

The OLR shows the KW into Asia making it into 3.4 and 3,this should downwell the warmer temps closer to the surface, this is where your warmer SST's are showing right now into the thermocline east of the IDL,into the 2nd week of August and Mid month.Looks to be a more significant KW(MJO) starting to develop into the IO next week or shortly after,then towards the end of the month into 3.4 potentially.This could change most certaintly.We also could be seeing some potential tropical genesis into Florida/GOM,east coast with a possible KW being shown right now towards the end of the month http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/

Downwelling Kelvin Wave right now into region 3 with into the thermocline you see some cooling and west of that you see some upwelling with warmer waters getting into the surface in 3.4 and even 3 as well.This is much like what some of the seasonals are showing for a potential Modoki look into fall severe season,but we'll see

Euro is slightly different today for us in Mid Tn. from yesterday this time.Monday looks more scattered with weak wind shear but there is a weak shortwave trough coming through..Into the late evening into early morning Tuesday the LLShear starts to pick up.Kinda question the capes the Euro shows with the CAMS,Tuesday.But anyways the LL shear is showing 20 kts into the early afternoon into the early evening here,with the 850mb winds increasing to around 35kts around late afternoon,with another shortwave trough coming though.There would be some decent rains Tuesday afternoon into early evening here at least,if it's right of course.If the CAMS get better we'll have more severe chance.

Nashville is going with the Euro.Euro has a shortwave trough coming through the Mid Valley,late night,early morning Tuesday.Wind shear looks weakish right now but at least should be enough for a poor mans severe chance with just thunderstorms,showalter is around -4,in the Mid Valley.

Kinda Modoki look into fall by Jamstec,we haven't had a good fall severe for some time.

The Euro would have done great with this system if it wouldn't have crapped out at the last minute.For several runs before it showed a "LID" in place over Mid Tn. and the strongest storms over east of I-65

Jamstec the last update shows a more weak/moderate Nino,don't really look Modoki in winter and like the IMME it peaks into winter then falls off.Would make a interesting winter though as it looks even colder this last update.

Latest IMME shows a more basin wide.Seasonals keep trending away from a Modoki in winter.but to be honest the IMME peaks in Dec and falls off in Jan,will we would even achieve a actual Nino on the tri-monthlies?Maybe the IMME is to cool or maybe its picking up on something

Severe fall the models seems to be getting away from any Modoki,more crap look

SOI took a big dip recently the last couple days.Asia is more or less showing the HP into Korea getting shifted more into China upcoming .Should be a warmup into the first of August and potentially a nice system into the 2nd week of August.Also potential of a CCKW into wk 2 of August,watch the GOM

Euro got slightly better into the weekend,around Sunday/Monday.GFS even shows some capes now.Not a great severe look but it's still 7 days out. Euro this afternoon shows a shortwave trough going through the Tn Valley during this time,instabilities still look weak

7/4/04 http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/Event.php?reg=MV&fhr=F036&rundt=2018071912&dt=2004070412