jaxjagman

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2019 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY NORTHWARD TO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from portions of Mississippi and Alabama northward through central Tennessee and Kentucky into Indiana, western Ohio and southern Michigan. Damaging winds, hail and tornadoes will all be possible from midday through the evening hours. ...Synopsis... The intense mid/upper trough over the mid-MO Valley will continue to shift east/northeast toward the Great Lakes and eastern Ontario by Friday morning. This will maintain a roughly 80-100 kt southwesterly midlevel jet streak across the Lower Ohio Valley toward Lake Ontario. At the surface, a still strong but filling cyclone will spread northeast in tandem with the upper level trough, arriving in the vicinity of James Bay by Friday morning. As the low lifts northeast, a cold front, oriented south-southwest from eastern IA to central AR to near the TX Gulf Coast at the beginning of the period, will shift eastward across the Midwest to the Lower MS Valley region by Thursday evening. ...Lower Ohio Valley Vicinity... A strong south/southwesterly low level jet will transport Gulf moisture fairly far northward for this time of year, with at least a narrow corridor of low 60s F dewpoints as far north as the Lower Ohio River, and low-to-mid 50s F dewpoints into southern Michigan. While the better quality moisture will remain confined to the Deep South, forcing for ascent and deep layer shear are much more impressive from the Ohio Valley into southern MI. Additionally, midlevel lapse rates are expected to steepen from KY/IN into MI as stronger height falls and colder temperatures aloft overspread the region ahead of a midlevel dryslot by midday. All of this combined leads to a narrow warm sector characterized by 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE, 6.5-7.5 C/km midlevel lapse rates, impressive/large curved low level hodographs and 45+ kt effective shear. While this parameter space is more than capable of supporting widespread severe, including damaging winds and possible strong tornadoes, quite a bit of uncertainty still exists. This is due in part to several rounds of showers and thunderstorms expected in the Day 1/Wed period, with ongoing convection possible in warm advection regime at the start of the Day 2/Thu period. Impacts of this convection/residual cloud cover on destabilization, and how far/quickly the surface cold front progresses by Thursday morning makes for a quite conditional scenario. As a result, have opted to expand the Slight risk northward across the Mid-South into southern MI. Uncertainty and conditional nature of the threat will preclude higher probs at this time across parts of KY/IN/MI/OH, but potential certainly exists for a higher-end threat to materialize across this region, as implied by various CAMs in the 18-00z time frame. Observational and numerical guidance trends will be monitored closely. ...TN Valley toward the Central Gulf Coast... Poorer lapse rates and much weaker forcing is expected with southward extent as the upper trough ejects away from the region. Near-neutral height tendancies and warmer temperatures aloft will result in weaker lapse rates compared to further north. Still, deep layer shear (45+ kt effective shear) will remain more than capable of sustaining organized convection. With mid-to-upper 60s F dewpoints resulting in 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE, supporting bowing line segments or supercells. Damaging winds and perhaps a tornado will be possible with any sustained storms that can develop, but the lack of stronger forcing will generally limit storm coverage.

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2019 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms associated with wind damage and an isolated tornado threat are expected to develop across parts of the lower to mid Mississippi Valley this afternoon and evening. Isolated severe storms are also possible over portions of northern Kansas and southern Nebraska. ...Synopsis... Upper-level low pressure over southeast Colorado will deepen early Wednesday while lifting northeast towards southeast Nebraska late Wednesday night. Intense surface low pressure will remain vertically aligned with the upper system, resulting in very strong low/mid-level wind fields across the central/southern Plains east to the lower/mid-Mississippi Valley region. An occluded front will arc northeast from the surface low across Iowa by 00Z and then extend south/southwest as a cold front from eastern sections of Missouri into western Louisiana. ...East Texas/Arklatex to the mid-Mississippi Valley... Remnants of overnight linear MCS should continue to weaken this morning as instability diminishes with eastward extent, however an isolated severe gust will remain possible as stronger convective elements developing ahead of the gust front transport higher momentum air to the surface in the presence of a very strong (60 kt) low-level jet. Despite generally weak mid-level lapse rates, a narrow corridor of lower 60s surface dew points will contribute to surface-based instability of 500 to locally 1000 J/kg by late afternoon/evening just ahead of the cold front from the vicinity of southeast Missouri southward. Strong wind fields will result in deep-layer shear on the order of 60 kts, with curved low-level hodographs supportive of supercells and bowing segments. One limiting factor remains the lack of greater instability, and with large-scale lift shifting north of the area with time, there remains uncertainty regarding storm coverage. High-resolution guidance suggests that redevelopment/re-intensification of thunderstorms with the cold front remains possible, along with more discrete thunderstorm development within the favorable shear-instability region preceding the front. Damaging winds will be primary threat with these storms, and some tornado potential will exist with the more discrete storms and QLCS circulations. No major changes have been made to the risk categories/probabilities with this outlook.

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2019 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms associated with wind damage and an isolated tornado threat are expected to develop across parts of the lower to mid Mississippi Valley this afternoon and evening. Isolated severe storms are also possible over portions of northern Kansas and southern Nebraska. ...Synopsis... Upper-level low pressure over southeast Colorado will deepen early Wednesday while lifting northeast towards southeast Nebraska late Wednesday night. Intense surface low pressure will remain vertically aligned with the upper system, resulting in very strong low/mid-level wind fields across the central/southern Plains east to the lower/mid-Mississippi Valley region. An occluded front will arc northeast from the surface low across Iowa by 00Z and then extend south/southwest as a cold front from eastern sections of Missouri into western Louisiana. ...East Texas/Arklatex to the mid-Mississippi Valley... Remnants of overnight linear MCS should continue to weaken this morning as instability diminishes with eastward extent, however an isolated severe gust will remain possible as stronger convective elements developing ahead of the gust front transport higher momentum air to the surface in the presence of a very strong (60 kt) low-level jet. Despite generally weak mid-level lapse rates, a narrow corridor of lower 60s surface dew points will contribute to surface-based instability of 500 to locally 1000 J/kg by late afternoon/evening just ahead of the cold front from the vicinity of southeast Missouri southward. Strong wind fields will result in deep-layer shear on the order of 60 kts, with curved low-level hodographs supportive of supercells and bowing segments. One limiting factor remains the lack of greater instability, and with large-scale lift shifting north of the area with time, there remains uncertainty regarding storm coverage. High-resolution guidance suggests that redevelopment/re-intensification of thunderstorms with the cold front remains possible, along with more discrete thunderstorm development within the favorable shear-instability region preceding the front. Damaging winds will be primary threat with these storms, and some tornado potential will exist with the more discrete storms and QLCS circulations. No major changes have been made to the risk categories/probabilities with this outlook.

Been in Knoxville for my sons state gymnastics meet ,so i'll miss this one. Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 PM CST Fri Mar 08 2019 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER OH VALLEY INTO WESTERN TN AND NORTHEAST MS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of tornadoes, large hail, and damaging gusts are possible across portions of the Mid South today through the early evening. A strong tornado is possible from the confluence of the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers southward into parts of northern Mississippi and northwest Alabama. ...Synopsis... A vigorous, negatively tilted mid-level shortwave trough will move from the central/southern Great Plains to the lower MO Valley by mid afternoon and subsequently into the Great Lakes after dark. An intense 90kt 500mb speed max will translate east-northeast from OK into the lower OH Valley by early evening. In the low levels, a surface low will develop northeast from central KS to the IA/IL/MO border by 6pm and into the central Great Lakes overnight. A warm front over the Mid South will advance northward into the lower OH Valley by peak heating and a composite dryline/Pacific front will arc south-southeast from the low into eastern AR and southwestward into east TX by mid afternoon before sweeping east across the OH Valley late. ...Eastern OK/TX into the mid-MS/lower OH Valleys... A complex forecast scenario with associated uncertainty appropriately describes the risk for severe thunderstorms and possible tornadoes across portions of the Mid South into the lower OH Valley today. At the start of the period, a couple of clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast across western portions of the larger-risk area in parts of northeast TX into eastern OK/western AR. Varying possible solutions are evident in model data whether all or parts of this activity moves downstream with intermittent intensification into the MS Valley during the day or whether some of this activity weakens on the southern portion near the Ark-La-Tex during the late morning. Hail, wind, and perhaps a tornado or two are possible with the early-day storms over the Ark-La-Tex vicinity. Farther east, an adequately moist/destabilizing warm sector will spread north and northeast in wake of the warm front with surface dewpoints ranging from near 60 degrees F in the lower OH Valley to the middle 60s farther south into TN/AR/MS/AL. Model guidance correspondingly indicates weaker buoyancy will exist farther north (MLCAPEs at or below 500 J/kg north of the OH river to 750-1250 J/kg farther south) but extreme low-level shear. Hodographs become very large by early-mid afternoon with flow increasing from 70-90kt in the 850-500mb layer over the northern half of the Enhanced Risk area. It seems plausible some attempts at storm development will occur during the afternoon near the leading edge of the mid-level dry slot. If the stronger updrafts become sustained, they will likely evolve into supercells with tornado potential. A corridor of possibility for supercell tornadoes (perhaps strong) appears greatest from the OH/MS confluence southward into northern portions of MS on the trailing portion of large-scale ascent moving away from the area. As storms encounter weaker buoyancy farther east and northeast during the evening, a transition to linear structures capable primarily of damaging winds may occur.

ay 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Wed Mar 06 2019 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models appear to be in reasonably good agreement over the U.S. through Day 6 (Monday 3-11), with the main upper feature early in the period being a negatively-tilted upper trough that will move quickly out of the central and southern Plains, across the Upper Midwest, and into the Upper Great Lakes Day 4 (Saturday 3-9). As this system continues to progress into eastern Canada and the northeastern U.S. Day 5 (Sunday 3-10), a strengthening trough farther west is progged to be digging southward along the West Coast, before shifting more eastward/inland Day 6. At this point, model agreement deteriorates significantly with eastward progression/evolution of this system, and thus forecast confidence remains low during the second half of the period. In the meantime, widespread showers and thunderstorms are forecast to expand across a large area from eastern portions of the central and southern Plains early Day 4, eastward/northeastward across the Mississippi Valley and into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys through Sunday morning. Given the strength of this system, and the accompanying/strong kinematic field, risk for at least isolated severe storms remains evident -- including potential for damaging winds and some tornado risk. However, a primary limiting factor appears likely to be limited CAPE (in part due to the widespread convective development). As such, will maintain only 15% risk at this time, though strength of this system and accompanying deep-layer wind field warrants attention in future outlooks. Day 5, models suggest that continued cold frontal advance across the East Coast and Gulf Coast states will occur, with the front currently progged to reside near both the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts near the end of the Day 5 period. Ahead of the boundary, modest CAPE but strong shear is expected, warranting introduction of a 15% risk area from the central Gulf Coast to the eastern Carolinas. With the front largely offshore by Day 6, a lull in severe weather risk is evident at this time, prior to the advance of the next western upper system.

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Tue Mar 05 2019 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models are in reasonable agreement through roughly Day 5 (Saturday 3-9), with respect to spatial positioning of the main synoptic features. The GFS remains the more aggressive model with respect to deepening of the upper trough as it crosses the Rockies Day 4 and the Plains Day 5, and thus likewise depicts a much stronger surface cyclone during the Day 5 period. Beyond Day 5, the faster GFS outpaces the slower ECMWF, to the degree that confidence in the potential for accuracy in a convective forecast beyond Day 5 is too low to warrant any areal inclusions. In the Day 4 to 5 time range, when model agreement is higher, it appears that elevated convection will evolve across portions of Oklahoma and Kansas, and possibly northward into Nebraska. However, confidence is not high enough that any hail risk evident at this point warrants a Day 4 area. Day 5, a surface cold front is progged to sweep across the central and southern Plains and into Missouri/Arkansas through the day, and then quickly eastward across the Mississippi River into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys overnight. While the strongest large-scale ascent is progged at this time to sweep across the Ozarks vicinity during the day, as the trough takes on a negative tilt, substantial questions remain as to the degree of moistening/destabilization that will be able to occur this far north. Greater severe risk may therefore remain farther south, from east Texas/Louisiana across the Lower Mississippi Valley region, and possibly into the central Gulf Coast states late. Aside from questions regarding instability, this appears likely to be a strongly dynamic system with strong flow/shear covering a broad area. As such, damaging winds, and potential for tornadoes, is evident at this time. At this time, a large 15% probability area will be issued centered on a north-south zone from Missouri to the Lower Mississippi Valley, with additional areal, and risk-level, refinements to be made in subsequent outlooks. ..Goss.. 03/05/2019

Yeah, i saw this.850-hpa zonal winds are showing another possible WWB upcoming

Per Tidbits.,3.4 is the strongest it's been with this Nino, today,if it's right.Sitting at +1.216.No sign of Nino going away soon.

ERTAF http://atlas.niu.edu/ertaf/

Models are showing the Atmospheric River cranking back up into the 2nd week of March.WPC has already highlighted parts of the East into the Valley with heavy rain.Even though we see weak systems until then the FFG should still be rather low.

Nice system showing up next weekend.Potential good system down the road coming off East Asia in the longer range

https://www.ustornadoes.com/2019/03/01/spring-2019-seasonal-tornado-outlook/ Using analogs of 1995 we had our most 3rd ranked severe of all time,of course during this time frame we was A MORE neutral enso coming of an Nina.Also during this time frame from 1990-1997 we never had a SSWE,would really like to see more study into SSWE's.The last split which was similar to this years was in a weak NINA in 1984 ,on Dec 31st,we broke our all-time record lows temps in Nashville in Jan of 1985 The tornado outbreak in May of 1995 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/May_1995_tornado_outbreak_sequence Edit:I took out some of the post out because i found some conflicting aspects.Wiki seems to be going by reported tornadoes and not confirmed.80 confirmed tornadoes seemed to be really extreme to me.This by OHX back on May 18,1995, looks more realistic https://www.weather.gov/ohx/19950518 Some of the tornado reports were also wind,hail and thunderstorm reports.But either way that was a heck of a day https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/sp3/plot.php?lat=32.810&lon=87.408&zoom=70&mode=1&bdate=19950518/1200&edate=19950519/1200&torflag=1&windflag=1&hailflag=1&t01=0&t02=5&t03=0&t04=9999&t05=0&t06=9999&t07=0&t08=9999&t09=0&t10=9999&h01=0&h02=9999&w01=0&w02=9999&showt=0&legend=1&showh=-1&showw=-1

Friday looks uncertain with a lot of model spread.Euro is suppressed ,GFS is North,,BSR looks even more west. Next Friday will be exactly two years that Middle Tn had its severe outbreak in the morning on March 1

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https://www.tn.gov/tema/current-status.html

Mud slide north of Nashville on 1-24 has it shut down

An error occurred while processing your request. Reference #97.14ac3817.1550954734.c44e726 Yeah at times the site is down, other times not

The cell NW of Germantown is showing a little rotation right now

Just as you said that tornado watch

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1025 AM CST SAT FEB 23 2019 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley and Tennessee Valley this afternoon and evening... * LOCATIONS... Northern and central Mississippi Western and middle Tennessee Northwest Alabama Southeast Arkansas Northeast Louisiana * HAZARDS... Several tornadoes, a few intense Scattered damaging winds Isolated large hail * SUMMARY... A few strong tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and isolated large hail are expected, primarily through this evening across the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley. The most dangerous period for tornadoes should be around 2 to 8 PM CST across northern Mississippi, southwest Tennessee, and far northwest Alabama. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building.

The WF is finally lifting