jaxjagman

MJO is showing signs of getting into the Western and Central Pacific,this should be a more +NAO with the strongest -PNA we've seen since winter.We should see AN temps in the long range,good news though it shouldn't last long,right now anyways

Should see a warm up i'd think into 3.4 upcoming

Marginal risk day 3.I'm starting to think the best chance of severe storms will come after this.Wed-Thursday. both the GFS and Euro are showing LP system going into the Mo Valley.This should in turn strenghten the LLJ.Both models though show this,right now anyways some sort of shortwave,trough, coming through the Valley during this time.Trying to pin point shortwaves though at his time would be kinda tough

Must have been a drag for the people that went in summer clothes to Bonnaroo last night,but i'm sure a few had a half-pint to much already anyways but for those that didn't ational Weather Service Nashville TN 929 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2019 .UPDATE... FOR MORNING DISCUSSION. && .DISCUSSION... The day began with near record cool temperatures across the area. Monterey had 46, Kingston Springs 47, Fall Creek Falls 42, and 47 at Manchesteroo. Today will be the very best of the foreseeable future by most standards. Skies will be sunny with some patches of thin cirrus. Temps will reach the 70s to lower 80s with comfy humidity levels. Tonight will be cool, but not quite as much as this morning. Forecast has been updated to adjust hourly trends and lower afternoon dew points due to deep mixing. From the previous discussion...Temperatures and dew points will be noticeably higher on Saturday compared to today. Rain chances will return starting on Sunday as upper flow becomes southwesterly and deep moisture settles into the area. Activity on Sunday looks to be mainly diurnal, but we will start seeing a series of disturbances embedded in the southwesterly flow Sunday night. Showers and storms will be more widespread on Monday with more upper level support compared to Sunday. A stronger shortwave will move through the area on Tuesday with even higher coverage of PoPs on Tuesday. We will be between shortwaves on Wednesday with more zonal upper flow, so showers and storms should be less widespread. Another shortwave will move through Wednesday night into Thursday bringing more showers and storms. The rest of the work week will see some diurnal showers and storms, but no organized waves. Temperatures Sunday through next week will be near normal with mild nights. Highs Monday and Tuesday will be a couple degrees cooler than Wednesday through Friday with widespread cloud cover and showers and storms. Lows Saturday night through next week will be in the mid 60s to lower 70s.

Don't feel like summer,10-15 degrees BN tonight

Rather see this in Nov and not June.Jamstec keeps Nino going through basically May.This is "JFM" not what it's tagged

Maybe some decent storms for guys in the east Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2019 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS POCKETS OF THE COUNTRY FROM WEST TX TO NC... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms are possible across pockets of the US from west Texas to coastal Carolinas. Wind and hail are the primary threats. ...Discussion... Latest short-range model guidance continues to suggest a notable mid-level speed max will dig southeast across the High Plains into the base of central US trough over northern MS by 13/00z. This feature will eject into the southern Appalachians during the overnight hours along with an attendant increase in large-scale forcing for ascent. Early in the period, convection is expected to be ongoing along a cold front across the lower MO Valley into northeast OK. Strong heating ahead of the wind shift is expected to aid buoyancy through steepening lapse rates across the Ozarks, primarily north of aforementioned digging jet. Will maintain 5% severe probs across this region due to dryer than normal boundary layer. A few strong storms may also develop along the surging front across portions of west TX where strong heating should remove CINH. Downstream, a narrow corridor of low-level moisture will advance north across the eastern TN Valley around the western periphery of wedge front in the lee of the Appalachians. Latest guidance suggest surface heating should aid buoyancy along a corridor from northeast AL into southeast IN. As exit region of approaching jet affects this zone of instability, convection should readily develop by early evening. Given the strength of the sharpening trough, there is some concern severe probs may need to be raised to account for this increasingly dynamic system. As mid-level heights fall across the southern Appalachians during the latter half of the period, a surface wave should evolve along coastal front over southeast GA/southern SC. This feature should lift north-northeast and may allow more moist/buoyant air mass to return to eastern NC. Will introduce 5% severe probs to account for convection that should develop within an increasingly sheared environment during the overnight hours. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind: 5% - Marginal Hail: 5% - Marginal

Euro and GFS agree with each other.Looks like a nice work week into the first part of the weekend until Sunday when the instabilities start creeping upwards.East Asia looks fairly active the next 10 days with no big ridge setting in US Day 3-7 Hazards Outlook NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 333 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2019 Valid Thursday June 13 2019 - Monday June 17 2019 Hazards: - Heavy rain across portions of the Southern/Central Plains, the Lower/Middle Mississippi Valley, the Tennessee Valley, and the Ohio Valley, Thu-Mon, Jun 13-Jun 17. - Flooding possible across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and the Southern Appalachians. - Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Plains, the Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes, the Southern Appalachians, the Southeast, and the Ohio Valley. - Flooding likely across portions of the Great Basin, the Northern/Central Rockies, the Northern Plains, the Middle Mississippi Valley, and the Southern Plains. - Excessive heat across portions of the Southern Plains, Sat-Mon, Jun 15-Jun 17. - Much above normal temperatures across portions of California, the Pacific Northwest, the Northern Rockies, and the Northern Great Basin, Thu-Mon, Jun 13-Jun 17. Detailed Summary: After a break over the past couple days and during the short range period, the central U.S. is once again expecting heavy rainfall in the medium range. Model uncertainty exists regarding the placement of shortwave troughs in the western U.S. that could influence the lift for this precipitation, but regardless, moisture inflow is expected to increase in the Central/Southern Plains initially and spread eastward through the period. Thus, the current forecast shows heavy rain beginning in the Central/Southern Plains by Thursday and spreading into the Middle Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley for the weekend. Overall a widespread 2 to 4 inches of precipitation is forecast for parts of the Southern Plains, Middle Mississippi Valley, and the Ohio Valley, with locally higher amounts. These regions have generally had much above average rainfall over the past few months and are sensitive to additional rainfall. By next Monday and Tuesday, a slow-moving front is expected to suppress the heavy rain a bit southward into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Tennessee Valley, while continuing in the Southern Plains. Heavy rainfall is also possible farther east toward the Lower Great Lakes region and Northeast for the end of the period, but did not outlook an area there due to uncertainties in amounts and placement. ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BNA LAT= 36.12 LON= -86.68 ELE= 591 12Z JUN10 2 M SFC SFC 6 HR 6 HR 6 HR 500 1000 TMP DEW CAPE QPF CVP NCP HGT 500 (C) (C) J/KG (IN) (IN) (IN) (DM) THK MON 12Z 10-JUN 21.9 21.5 261 585 572 MON 18Z 10-JUN 25.4 20.2 114 586 572 TUE 00Z 11-JUN 22.2 12.2 0 0.02 0.01 0.01 585 570 TUE 06Z 11-JUN 16.5 10.5 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 584 567 TUE 12Z 11-JUN 14.9 9.6 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 584 565 TUE 18Z 11-JUN 23.1 8.5 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 584 567 WED 00Z 12-JUN 20.4 12.6 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 582 568 WED 06Z 12-JUN 16.2 10.3 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 581 567 WED 12Z 12-JUN 16.1 11.9 6 0.00 0.00 0.00 578 566 WED 18Z 12-JUN 26.4 14.0 1 0.00 0.00 0.00 576 566 THU 00Z 13-JUN 22.0 14.2 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 571 563 THU 06Z 13-JUN 16.3 13.0 8 0.00 0.00 0.00 568 559 THU 12Z 13-JUN 16.3 14.0 6 0.00 0.00 0.00 566 555 THU 18Z 13-JUN 21.9 9.0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 570 557 FRI 00Z 14-JUN 19.5 9.0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 572 559 FRI 06Z 14-JUN 12.8 8.5 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 576 560 FRI 12Z 14-JUN 13.7 10.2 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 579 561 FRI 18Z 14-JUN 24.0 7.7 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 582 564 SAT 00Z 15-JUN 22.4 13.0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 583 568 SAT 06Z 15-JUN 16.0 11.2 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 584 568 SAT 12Z 15-JUN 17.7 11.2 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 584 569 SAT 18Z 15-JUN 29.2 14.4 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 585 572 SUN 00Z 16-JUN 27.0 16.8 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 585 575 SUN 06Z 16-JUN 23.0 16.5 28 0.00 0.00 0.00 585 575 SUN 12Z 16-JUN 22.7 19.0 1272 0.10 0.10 0.00 585 572 SUN 18Z 16-JUN 30.1 21.9 2561 0.10 0.10 0.00 586 575 MON 00Z 17-JUN 23.2 22.2 1630 0.43 0.41 0.02 584 573 MON 06Z 17-JUN 21.6 21.1 1232 0.05 0.05 0.00 584 572 MON 12Z 17-JUN 21.6 20.9 957 0.06 0.04 0.01 583 571 MON 18Z 17-JUN 28.0 22.9 2480 0.08 0.07 0.01 584 573 TUE 00Z 18-JUN 25.5 22.2 1673 0.05 0.05 0.00 583 573 TUE 06Z 18-JUN 22.6 21.8 1164 0.04 0.01 0.03 582 573 TUE 12Z 18-JUN 20.7 20.1 715 0.38 0.26 0.12 582 572 TUE 18Z 18-JUN 26.0 21.5 610 0.10 0.08 0.02 584 574 WED 00Z 19-JUN 24.6 22.7 1443 0.12 0.07 0.05 584 575 WED 06Z 19-JUN 21.8 21.5 1937 0.06 0.06 0.00 584 574 WED 12Z 19-JUN 22.2 21.6 1331 0.28 0.03 584 574 WED 18Z 19-JUN 28.3 22.6 1838 0.07 0.01 585 576 THU 00Z 20-JUN 25.6 22.5 1490 0.11 0.11 0.01 583 576 THU 06Z 20-JUN 21.7 21.5 872 0.40 0.38 0.02 582 574 THU 12Z 20-JUN 21.8 21.1 727 0.14 0.04 0.10 582 573

Models are killing off the MJO to fast,typical bias with the ENSO,If this were into the summer time(More around July) we'd probably see a big warm up in the Valley.

I was rather disappointed in this system until this afternoon in the Mid Valley.The position of the LP kept getting us cut off.Not bad though this afternoon,our temps rose into the mid 80's, even into the mid morning everything was saturated with high PW's for some decent rain,least i was hoping and it did well.Most areas have gotten some much needed decent rains in Tn since Wed,this isn't updated also ...TENNESSEE... OLIVE BRANCH 8.70 GERMANTOWN 7.32 DOWNTOWN MEMPHIS 6.70 COLLIERVILLE 1.4 SE 6.68 HERNANDO 5 S 5.31 HENDERSONVILLE 3 NE 5.00 OLD HICKORY 1.2 SSE 4.92 GALLATIN 4.71 MOUNT JULIET 4.34 LYNCHBURG 1 NNW 4.24 MEMPHIS INTL ARPT 4.03 BRISTOL/TRI-CITIES AIRPORT 3.83 WINCHESTER 5.4 SSE 3.63 SUMNER CO APT 3.25 TUSCULUM 0.7 WNW 2.80 MADISON 1.2 WSW 2.76 ATOKA 1.9 S 2.72 LEBANON 10.5 ENE 2.55 FRANKLIN 3.6 NW 2.54

NMME, basically looks weak Nino basinwide,probably would last through the winter.if it were to be right

Not much thunder here,matter of fact we've cleared out mostly https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/?initsatsrc=On&initsatname=GOES16&initsattype=swir&initcscheme=ir1&initimdimx=1050&initimdimy=533&initrange=55.000000000000:-145.000000000000:0:-15.000000000000&initloop=False&initnframes=20&initlightning16=On&initlightning17=Off&initltngfed=Off&initltngtoe=Off&initinterstates=On&initwarnings=On&initlatlon=Off&initascata=Off&initascatb=Off

ENSO is getting a second wind,those cooler waters that has been showing into the thermocline are getting mixed out. I suspect also as the MJO gets into the Maritime you might see these WWB get picked up and get stronger than what they have been showing towards the middle of June.Typical models wanting to kill off the MJO to quick with the ENSO

One thing to look at which could give the GFS more credence, to me anyways.Around Wednesday upcoming there is weak ridging building up in East Asia,into the Yellow Sea and S/Korea,this would seem to potentially bring an area of HP in the east and maybe even into the TN Valley some where around the 12th or 13th,but this should get kicked out rather quickly and another trough in the east shortly after

Euro shows us another different pattern to ponder this afternoon.The LP gets cut off around Mid Tn and then retrogrades back southwards.This would be a good rain maker for us here in the Mid Valley,if it were to actually happen.But i'm sure we'll see more changes upcoming.I'm starting to lean towards the GFS as it seems to show less volatility upcoming with the pattern,but who knows? ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BNA LAT= 36.12 LON= -86.68 ELE= 591 12Z JUN02 6 HR 6 HR FROZN TOTAL SFC 2 M 1000 1000 QPF CVP PCP QPF PCP TMP 500 850 (IN) (IN) (IN) (IN) TYPES (C) THK THK SUN 12Z 02-JUN 21.3 567 140 SUN 18Z 02-JUN 0.00 30.2 570 141 MON 00Z 03-JUN 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 27.4 570 141 MON 06Z 03-JUN 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 20.2 567 139 MON 12Z 03-JUN 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 18.1 565 138 MON 18Z 03-JUN 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 27.2 566 139 TUE 00Z 04-JUN 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 25.0 569 140 TUE 06Z 04-JUN 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 17.8 568 139 TUE 12Z 04-JUN 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 17.6 569 140 TUE 18Z 04-JUN 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 32.2 572 142 WED 00Z 05-JUN 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 28.8 574 143 WED 06Z 05-JUN 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 22.6 574 143 WED 12Z 05-JUN 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 23.3 573 142 WED 18Z 05-JUN 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.01 31.2 574 142 THU 00Z 06-JUN 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.03 27.1 574 142 THU 06Z 06-JUN 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.04 23.4 573 142 THU 12Z 06-JUN 0.04 0.01 0.00 0.07 21.9 571 140 THU 18Z 06-JUN 0.11 0.03 0.00 0.19 24.8 572 140 FRI 00Z 07-JUN 0.05 0.02 0.00 0.23 24.3 574 141 FRI 06Z 07-JUN 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.27 22.0 573 141 FRI 12Z 07-JUN 0.17 0.04 0.00 0.44 21.4 572 140 FRI 18Z 07-JUN 0.31 0.03 0.00 0.74 22.7 573 141 SAT 00Z 08-JUN 0.28 0.03 0.00 1.03 23.4 575 141 SAT 06Z 08-JUN 0.15 0.10 0.00 1.18 21.1 573 140 SAT 12Z 08-JUN 0.08 0.05 0.00 1.26 20.9 572 140 SAT 18Z 08-JUN 0.05 0.03 0.00 1.30 26.2 574 141 SUN 00Z 09-JUN 0.24 0.17 0.00 1.54 22.6 574 140 SUN 06Z 09-JUN 0.17 0.07 0.00 1.71 21.2 573 140 SUN 12Z 09-JUN 0.41 0.04 0.00 2.12 21.4 573 140 SUN 18Z 09-JUN 0.60 0.10 0.00 2.71 22.1 573 140 MON 00Z 10-JUN 0.22 0.10 0.00 2.93 21.9 574 140 MON 06Z 10-JUN 0.12 0.05 0.00 3.05 21.1 575 140 MON 12Z 10-JUN 0.43 0.10 0.00 3.48 21.1 574 140 MON 18Z 10-JUN 0.33 0.11 0.00 3.81 23.4 574 140 TUE 00Z 11-JUN 0.52 0.27 0.00 4.33 21.5 573 140 TUE 06Z 11-JUN 0.37 0.05 0.00 4.70 19.9 572 140 TUE 12Z 11-JUN 0.29 0.06 0.00 4.99 18.6 570 139 TUE 18Z 11-JUN 0.21 0.03 0.00 5.20 21.1 570 138 WED 00Z 12-JUN 0.02 0.01 0.00 5.22 20.1 569 138 WED 06Z 12-JUN 0.01 0.00 0.00 5.23 17.8 569 137 WED 12Z 12-JUN 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.23 16.8 567 137

Euro today around day 6 cuts the low off as the upper ridging in Canada starts to strengthen so it just meanders around Tn./Ark and N/Ms,by day 10 it's still sitting in East Ark with nothing to kick it out.But by day 10 it starts to look like the ridge starts shifting east tho.Just another scenario to ponder

Wonder what the PW record is in June is for any part of the Valley with out a tropical system effecting us?That would actually be pretty cool looking if you like some good thunderstorms,if not turn your head with SBCAPES well over 5k and lapse rates 7.5 with no cap and TT'S over 56.You gotta love long range models shows some loving for us,next run it might be clear It's still not often you see this even in fantasy land in the summer,especially with the PW's in any part of the Valley.

So far,so good. The upcoming pattern looks wet,especially starting around mid week and beyond.The Euro this afternoon closes off the 5H some where into the S/Plains as does the GFS and slowly moves eastward.This should set the stage for shortwaves to rotate around it into the Valley through the long range.East Asia even up to 10-days still shows troughs going through Let's hope we see some good rains upcoming,most of all the Middle Valley is showing abnormal rains by the drought monitor.The MJO by the Euro and GEFS wants to weaken it but this could be more ENSO and it could possibly stay out of the COD.But we should really warm up upcoming the next few weeks seemingly If for some reason we don't see much of any rains(doubt we don't) the EDDI ,especially for you guys in the Eastern Valley shows a potential "Flash"drought and fire risk upcoming the next few weeks

Weeklies look quite warm into the 2nd week of June.You go chasing these last several days?

This afternoons Euro shows into the mid week the ridge starts to break down and gets shunted eastward,so the above normal 2m's will last until mid week ,as the ridge gets shifted eastward we should start to be looking at more seasonal 2m's with the return of rain once again.We certainly could use some rain.I posted some text of what the Euro shows this afternoon in our area just as an example.I wouldn't be to focused on one part of the Valley in the long range.. In the extended look it SO FAR looks about the same.No big warm up.The MJO looks strong as it gets into the IO and possibly into the Maritime.We saw the GEFS and Euro kill off the MJO to fast it's last pass,ENSO.So we'll see. ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BNA LAT= 36.12 LON= -86.68 ELE= 591 12Z MAY26 2 M 2 M 2 M SFC SFC 6 HR FROZN TOTAL MXT MNT TMP DEW WIND QPF PCP CLOUD (F) (F) (F) (F) (KTS) (IN) (IN) (PCT) SUN 12Z 26-MAY 72.9 64.8 22004 53 SUN 18Z 26-MAY 90.9 72.9 91.0 57.8 24009 30 MON 00Z 27-MAY 92.2 83.7 83.1 62.8 33006 0.00 0.00 26 MON 06Z 27-MAY 83.1 71.0 72.1 65.7 35002 0.00 0.00 98 MON 12Z 27-MAY 72.3 65.8 70.8 65.2 15003 0.00 0.00 34 MON 18Z 27-MAY 91.2 70.8 91.3 62.7 24007 0.00 0.00 29 TUE 00Z 28-MAY 92.3 86.1 85.6 69.4 26003 0.00 0.00 69 TUE 06Z 28-MAY 86.0 72.8 72.9 63.2 23005 0.00 0.00 0 TUE 12Z 28-MAY 73.0 69.4 73.1 66.2 21005 0.00 0.00 0 TUE 18Z 28-MAY 90.6 73.1 90.8 59.3 24008 0.00 0.00 35 WED 00Z 29-MAY 93.0 86.7 86.1 63.9 21005 0.00 0.00 2 WED 06Z 29-MAY 86.1 75.3 75.1 60.2 23005 0.00 0.00 93 WED 12Z 29-MAY 75.2 70.8 73.9 60.5 20006 0.00 0.00 62 WED 18Z 29-MAY 93.0 73.9 93.2 51.5 22010 0.00 0.00 8 THU 00Z 30-MAY 95.0 87.6 86.8 57.8 24004 0.00 0.00 78 THU 06Z 30-MAY 86.8 70.4 70.4 58.8 20002 0.00 0.00 100 THU 12Z 30-MAY 71.6 68.4 71.7 58.9 18005 0.00 0.00 87 THU 18Z 30-MAY 85.9 71.7 86.1 59.6 22011 0.00 0.00 96 FRI 00Z 31-MAY 89.6 78.9 78.8 67.7 27006 0.03 0.00 38 FRI 06Z 31-MAY 78.8 70.4 70.3 66.8 30004 0.00 0.00 28 FRI 12Z 31-MAY 70.3 67.6 69.7 61.8 31003 0.00 0.00 98 FRI 18Z 31-MAY 82.9 69.7 83.0 56.7 29005 0.00 0.00 47 SAT 00Z 01-JUN 84.9 79.6 79.1 57.0 33004 0.00 0.00 44 SAT 06Z 01-JUN 79.1 67.5 67.3 59.9 31004 0.00 0.00 2 SAT 12Z 01-JUN 67.7 62.9 67.9 61.2 29003 0.00 0.00 0 SAT 18Z 01-JUN 85.6 67.9 85.9 55.4 28004 0.00 0.00 10 SUN 00Z 02-JUN 88.9 84.4 83.7 59.0 25003 0.00 0.00 100 SUN 06Z 02-JUN 83.7 70.6 70.5 58.7 25005 0.00 0.00 96 SUN 12Z 02-JUN 72.1 68.6 71.3 63.5 21005 0.02 0.00 55 SUN 18Z 02-JUN 87.3 71.3 87.4 67.1 25005 0.01 0.00 46 MON 00Z 03-JUN 87.8 75.7 76.3 72.5 22000 0.21 0.00 47 MON 06Z 03-JUN 76.3 69.5 69.5 68.8 22003 0.00 0.00 72 MON 12Z 03-JUN 70.3 67.8 70.7 69.0 15002 0.00 0.00 100 MON 18Z 03-JUN 83.0 70.7 83.2 69.4 21004 0.04 0.00 100 TUE 00Z 04-JUN 85.2 74.4 74.3 72.9 03001 0.16 0.00 99 TUE 06Z 04-JUN 74.3 69.0 68.9 68.5 27003 0.09 0.00 99 TUE 12Z 04-JUN 69.9 68.1 69.9 69.5 21002 0.05 0.00 100 TUE 18Z 04-JUN 80.8 69.9 81.0 71.0 25002 0.05 0.00 99 WED 00Z 05-JUN 81.9 74.5 75.7 72.3 13002 0.10 0.00 98 WED 06Z 05-JUN 75.7 70.6 70.8 70.2 15002 0.01 0.00 100 WED 12Z 05-JUN 71.0 68.5 69.1 68.6 15003 0.18 0.00 99

It still looks healthy to me,right now.The surface temps look better recently, from a KW earlier in the month.There is also an on going KW that is around the IDL right now which looks stronger than the last one.Not really sure about winter time quite yet.We should have a better pic upcoming as summer goes on.

We should see a ever so slightly warm up into next weekend,around that time as the heights build up into East Asia yesterday and today,it shouldnt last long but a day or two,the heights in East Asia are fixing to crumble,we should see basically seasonal to even BN some days,maybe we'll even see some afternoon thunderstorms at least

Everything seems to be on que,chances for record breaking heatwave into the first part of next week for this time of year for parts of the Valley.Still looks like the SER will start gettting kicked to the east sometimes around the mid week upcoming,this should put us into a more rain chance pattern with at least more seasonal 2m's upcoming The last drought monitor showed it's first signs into the Valley recently with abnormal rain fall around/MS/AL/TN,no drought, just abnormal rains. Don't really see any heat wave upcoming after this,for awhile anyways.MJO is getting into the IO upcoming.MJO really stalled out recently into phase eight,it has barley budged the last 9-days,so we;ll see how it acts upcoming.Weeklies are starting to look warm again at the end of it's run lately

Euro continues to show a stronger ridge.The PNA would suggest a SER on the GEFS.The MJO yesterday entered phase 8 which shouldn't be a SER though depending on lag time.Tomorrow there is a trough going through East Asia with an Upper low into East China so there would seem to be an Upper low into the Upper Plains/OV with some sorta trough in the east,makes me think the GFS might be more right with the thermals.If for some reason the Euro is right there should be some risk of breaking high temps as well as high/lows into the late next weekend into the first part of the next week for parts of the Valley

You want a trough to teleconnect with the Valley from East Asia this would be it,sad thing it's far out and will probably shift into China,but this would be potentially nice