jaxjagman

Models still show a chance of some strong storms towards the end of the work week into the Valley.Took some soundings into the Mid Valley for Friday.The Euro is for BNA and the GFS is slightly S of BNA.All the models today show the Upper level trough more Southward than usual in the summer time.Instabilities right now look pretty decent for some strong storms upcoming.Who ever gets storms it should be like the SPC mentioned as there is a capping inversion into the evening hours,so storms will die off into the early evening,right now anyways Nashville disco Extended outlook...Rain chances will creep back into the forecast on Thursday as another upper level trough moves southeastward through the Midwest. Chances will increase further on Friday as the trough approaches TN and moist southerly flow returns at lower levels. The pattern for late next week and next weekend is pretty interesting as extended models morph the trough into a significant closed low over Michigan. This set up leaves Middle TN in a period of significant northwest flow aloft...and probably another cold front that could arrive Saturday. There is much uncertainty in a Day 6-7 forecast, but don`t be surprised if we see some strong storms in this pattern...given the moisture, a cold front and unusually strong flow aloft proving unseasonably strong wind shear.

Chance for some strong storms towards the end of the work week by both the GFS and Euro.SPC don't sound to enamored by this ...Friday/Day 6 to Sunday/Day 8... On Friday, the models diverge in the solutions but on a broad-scale maintain a western U.S. upper-level ridge and eastern U.S. upper-level trough. The position of the trough is doubtful at this range but model consensus would put the greatest potential for thunderstorm development in the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. An isolated severe threat would be possible Friday afternoon into the early evening. On Saturday and Sunday, the models move the upper-level trough slowly eastward but vary considerably on the amplitude of the system and amount of instability that will be in place. Thunderstorms with some potentially strong, would be possible ahead of the upper-level trough in areas that destabilize the most. Uncertainty is considerable at this range.

NMME update during "DJF"

Cool,i was watching the radar and it was starting to die out seemingly with the loss of diurnal heating as mentioned.That would have been a nice storm if not for timing.Though i can do without wind storms like that, that knock the power grids out like it did into Ky into some towns

Kinda eerie photo shop look,if you go back to the pic i posted on 6-1,you'll see what i'm saying.Before we had our our recent wet spell recently we had a decent warm up.Looking at the weeklies last night,it's showing this with even 25C into the Western Valley around mid month and 20c for us in the rest of the Valley showing on the 850mb temps.After this the temps of the 850mb go south,cool down period and potential wet pattern.CFS has been showing a potential active KW into the mid month.If the KW were to work out we could see some tropical genesis into week 3 of next month into the GOM,the weeklies sure show this.We shall see upcoming

You guys get any of the storm last night?They put us in a watch but i figured it would go west of us,it was dropping S from Kentucky.Seen some 80 mph winds on my radar in Southern Kentucky,70 mph towards the KY/Tn line into Tn but it looked like it was starting to weaken the further S it went,i went to bed by the time it got to you guys

May the PDO warmed .Not all Ninos seem to work the same.The super Nino of 82-83,in May of 1982(I.E) the PDO cooled to -1.17 and more or less fluctuated back and forth from negative to positive the remainder of that said year,1982.

Thermocline is getting warm in 3.4..Jamstec shows a moderate Modoki into fall,then it starts to weaken into winter

Yeah,i was taking a nap and missed it :(.I caught the storm on my radar after it passed Lawrence Co.But it as well put up a couple OFB's into Alabama and So.Middle Tn late afternoon,we can't get nothing here

Storms are firing up a long a new OFB in Southern Middle Valley

I have a friend who lives in Loretto,Tn who shared some pics on my facebook page.Tore some of his shingles off his home,tore his gutter almost completely off and threw his trampoline across his yard into the woods,plus numerous trees uprooted,that was a violent storm that swept through like you said

We totally whiffed out of what the models showed.We should have gotten more rain here.Friday was the killer to start with,with the dry air intrusion that neither the GFS or Euro showed.Don't think we even got a quarter inch of rain from this mess the last couple days here, didn't expect much in the way of severe here,but i thought we'd at least get more rain...sigh... Hopefully we get some good storms over night.GFS shows MUCapes above 5k in the afternoon in the Mid Valley Sunday,what were those lotto numbers again?

Slight risk tomorrow,southern areas.Nashville seems to think the slight risk will be expanded,so we'll see what the next update shows.For today so far: ...MO/AR into KY/TN/MS... A cold front currently extends from central MO into northeast AR. Scattered thunderstorms will develop along this front this afternoon, spreading eastward into parts of western KY/TN and northern MS this evening. Relatively strong wind fields in this area suggest some risk of severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts. A consensus of model solutions suggest that afternoon t-td spreads will only be the 10-12 degree F range. This combined with poor mid-level lapse rates lend uncertainty to a more robust severe event. This area will be monitored in later updates.

Marginal for Thurs,Western Valley ...Mid to lower MS Valley... Cool air aloft with the upper trough and ample low-level moisture will lead to areas of 1000-2000 J/kg MUCAPE from TX to IL. Complicating this forecast scenario will be widespread precipitation and clouds early in the day. However, a plume of heating and steepening low-level lapse rates is expected to develop mainly along and west of the MS river. Given cool temperatures aloft, an arc of diurnal re-development is expected. Hail and wind will be possible, and portions of the area may eventually be upgraded to a Slight Risk once predictability issues decrease in later outlooks. Marginal for most of all the Valley,with the exception of the far NW ...Lower MS Valley to the OH Valley... A large area of thunderstorm potential will exist from the MS River to the Appalachians with substantial moisture in place and relatively cool air aloft with the upper trough. The most likely area for severe storms appears to be from the Arklatex into northern AL, and northward into KY. However, given the likelihood of antecedent outflows and early/ongoing storms, predictability is low. A Slight Risk may be needed in some parts of the area in later outlooks Possibly a decent MCS late night Sat into Sunday morning,as to where it goes is the question.But the Euro and GFS both show it right now

Yeah at least right now we have some jet and shear showing to work with during the time frame you mentioned.

https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html

Like the way the IMME looks into fall severe season"Modoki" in which Modoki goes from JULY-DEC .But into Dec it's showing the warmest SST'S into region 3.But it's much weaker than the NMME with it's basin wide moderate look,but we're still talking months away

Warm waters in the thermocline in region 3 and 3.4 showing up.NMME shows this into July reaching the surface

The MJO looks to show stronger signals into around the Caribbean/GOM in a couple weeks,plus with a passing Kelvin.It wouldn't totally surprise me if the GFS is right,it's been showing tropical genesis forever it seems.Euro don't really show much right now,but there looks to be a wave it shows headed towards the Yucatan,but it doesn't develop it.

Depression headed towards Vietnam,don't really see nothing of a typhoon right now with also clouds even further east of that which could develop something.Asia though looks really active in the long range from VietNam into Korea.This bodes well with a potential wet pattern, MJO towards the mid month and beyond for the Valley.Seems odd middle of June potential though in summer we see a potential wet pattern like this compared to past summer times

Looks like the system i said into the latter part of the first week of June is going to go north of the Valley.PNA has been showing more positive around the 6th through the 9th,unlike the earlier runs.But the crap winds right now,probably wouldn't have mattered anyways...lol

With the drought in the plains we shouldnt see a system going through Texas with more of a anti-cyclonic flow,seems like if something if it were to develop would either go east of Texas or go into Mexico,least right now anyways,but we'd rather see a tropical system as far west as you get though it might work out for you guys in the east but we need to see a storm first

Not only is the GOM favorable for tropical genesis,there is also potential with the favorable MJO in Asia for a recurving typhoon,if it were to evolve #activepotentialfortheValley

Slight risk now for the Western Valley,hail and wind tomorrow potential right now Should dry out in the Valley for few days then become unsettled again,we could get in the lower 90's around next weekend Middle Valley even hotter in the West Valley,east seems to be a dart throwing competition. Chance for tropical genesis once again into the GOM towards the mid month.If the Euro is right there would be a good trough coming through the Valley Mid month coming out of Asia in the long run.Either way,MJO,etc.,etc.,the wet pattern is coming back seemingly,we'll see. Above median precipitation is most likely for parts of the eastern Gulf Coast into the interior Southeast, where dynamical model forecasts, including the ECMWF, CFS, JMA, and SubX MME, indicate enhanced atmospheric moisture flow from the tropics, including the potential for tropical storm activity. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/

Was watching the radar and it looked like a band trained around the Chatty area for a couple hours around the time you are talking about.We got one good band with no thunder