jaxjagman

Enso has warmed east of the IDL recently.CFS today is showing another WWB into week 1 of Oct that looks to make it past 120W into the 2nd week of Oct,this would be the strongest WWB in that area since the first of July. 3.4 has been warming the last couple weeks and for that matter every region has been rising,3,4 should stay that way and make no significant drop,As far as 3 rises much upcoming would depend on a Rossby and Kelvin waves.

We are in our worse drought sorta speaking since since 1954 in the Tn Valley,around Nashville is on pace to be the driest for Sept and even warmest on record with temps of 90 plus for the year,seems like a more LaNina but isnt.i have hard time to believe this will be cold and not warm in our area especially if we don't get any rain upcoming into our dry Oct season upcoming

Possibly 1.2 might be there the next update tomorrow or darn near close..3 has cooled of as well with the CCKW passing through

IMME

By the looks the precip looks wet in Fla with potential severe thunderstorms and wet in California,seems typical Nino.Looks like our typical cold seasons of past where the battle ground is 1-40,crap shoot south

Jamstec,it did really bad last winter

Basically if you look at the maps above what some of the NMMES show there is nothing coupled with the oceans,it has been that way since the inception of this Nino, it could be just like last winter warm and wet but last winter the SST'S were much warmer east of the IDL,unlike this year it seems.There would seem to be depending on the QBO the PV could be weak so there always is a chance of a SSWE INTO winter.But this winter seems like a crap shoot IMHO,with more weight towards warm than cold

NMME is out and don't look great IMO.Tho this looks like a more +PDO,But look how warm the SST is showing into the GOM,this should teleconnect much cooler with the PDO than what is being shown into the GOM,you'd think those SST'S along the west coast would be much colder with the look into the GOM

This is really cool,had to post

Slightly warmer into the thermocline this update as a CCKW is passing through east of the IDL bringing some upwelling.MJO signal looks weak but looks to be into the Maritime in a couple days,least this is what the RMMM's are showing.Jamstec shows an active "Modoki" into fall,maybe we can get an active fall severe for a change

The SOI finally made it into an more Nina pattern today for 30 days anyways,still has aways for 90 18 Aug 2019 1017.45 1014.60 7.46 0.07 -7.28 17 Aug 2019 1017.60 1014.75 7.46 -0.38 -7.47 16 Aug 2019 1014.80 1015.85 -16.21 -1.04 -7.56 15 Aug 2019 1014.60 1016.25 -19.85 -0.87 -7.26

Like the new color scheme,easier to tell if the anoms are on the +/- side.Not much change this update.Probably see a slight change next update as the CCKW is passing by east of the IDL

Jamstec is much warmer with the Enso

IMME has a neutral tho negative ENSO in the winter

Lost Power for a few minutes but lost Comcast so have no TV or internet.By far the best storms of the year today .

Last update from CPC seems to reflect on a DWKW which passed through region 3 and 1.2 which had no problem it seems puling those cooler waters to the surface.Still looks warm elsewhere

NMME'S updated.CAN and GEM looks like feedback issues from the models,should explain now why CanSIPS looks so not right on Tidbits.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf

Believe this is from Upwelling from a KW.CPC is still behind the TAO around 5-days it seems,Think you are talking about the CPC? https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/cgi-tao/cover.cgi?P1=EQ&P2=a&P3=a&P4=a&P5=a&P6=a&P7=a&P8=a&P9=a&P10=a&P11=t&P12=mean&P13=20190730-August-1-2019&P14=a&P15=0&P16=32&P17=500&P18=0&P19=t&P20=anom&P21=20190730-August-1-2019&P22=a&P23=-12&P24=12&P25=300&P26=0&P27=tt&script=disdel/dep-lon-5day-disdel-v75.csh CPC finally updated it's ETA'S today. The MJO is headed towards the Maritime upcoming.,GEFS and Euro, one of the two are lost with even the starting point today.Looks like the strongest typhoon of the season is going to hit around S/Korea/ SW Japan then into the Sea of Japan in East Asia,around next weekend but that could change until then Looks like a potential KW is headed towards the IDL with the MJO into week-2 of August,after that everything seems to look murky,but this should effect the ENSO upcoming

CanSIPS has some tech glitch..CPC seems to be updating now and the subsurface looks warmer now than the 12th,posted above,especially east of the IDL

Wouldnt be bad if it was trustworthy at this point

CanSIPS looks almost like a moderate Nina in the winter.Wish the CPC would update the Subsurface Tropical Pacific Ocean Analyses,been almost three weeks since the last update

National Weather Service Nashville TN 1152 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019 .UPDATE... FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION. && .DISCUSSION... Our FFA will be expanded to cover most of our area. Showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy downpours should expand rapidly across the area going into the afternoon. The approach of a trough and embedded MCVs will help initiate the activity in a very moist environment. The 12Z OHX upper air showed about 2 inches for precipitable water, and models are focusing a northeast to southwest band of moisture convergence across Mid Tn this afternoon. Our previous FFA area did show the zone of most persistent lift, but potential for localized flash flooding seems just as high extending back across our southwest counties where heavy rainfall has occurred during the past few days. 1 hour flash flood guidance values are under 2 inches for much of the Mid State, and we will likely have episodes of rainfall rates well in excess of these amounts. We do not expect a widespread flood situation, but locations where heavy convective bands set up could be dealing with several inches of rain and significant local impacts. Thanks LMK for collaboration.

Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1205 PM EDT Mon Jul 22 2019 Day 1 Valid 16Z Mon Jul 22 2019 - 12Z Tue Jul 23 2019 ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC... ...Lower Mississippi Valley, through the Tennessee Valley and Central Appalachians, into portions of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast... The expansive band of Slight to Moderate Risk was generally maintained with minimal changes on this forecast update, stretching from Arkansas to southern New England. Among the minor changes were to extend the length of the Moderate Risk on both ends: (1) along the Kentucky and Tennessee border to account for an alignment of ongoing convection in a zone of low-level confluence and on the northern periphery of a pool of stronger instability; and (2) from the NYC metro area into southwest Connecticut as hi-res models have a fairly robust signal for heavier QPF (2+ inches) into Connecticut. The Slight Risk area was drawn further northwest in parts of southeast Ohio and southwest Pennsylvania to account for the position of developing convection along the front in those areas. The overall forecast reasoning remains similar, with a ribbon of precipitable water values near or above the 95th percentile along a gradually advancing front. HREF probabilities indicate a high likelihood of pockets of at least 2-3 inches of rainfall over most of the Slight and Moderate Risk regions, and individual members show widespread rain rates of 1-2 in/hr with isolated maxima approaching 3 in/hr. This seems reasonable based on the combination of moderate instability and 2+ inch PW values. Several areas of greater concern exist. First, from eastern Pennsylvania into the NYC metro area hi-res models generally have a stronger signal for rain rates exceeding 2 in/hr. The nose of stronger low-level moisture transport will be focused in this area as well, and GOES-16 visible satellite imagery indicates limited cloud cover as of 16Z, so considerable instability should be able to build (supporting higher rain rates). The second area of concern is near the Kentucky-Tennessee border, where convection is becoming aligned with the deep layer mean flow already, and the inflow region over Tennessee is strongly unstable with SBCAPE around 3000 j/kg at 16Z. Once again, the stronger instability may support a concentrated region where higher (2+ in/hr) rain rates are more likely. Finally, there is concern from far eastern Kentucky into West Virginia and far southwest Pennsylvania. A stronger westerly component to the low-level flow may support a greater concentration of convection in the upslope regions of the Appalachians, and these areas of terrain can be more vulnerable to flash flooding. Furthermore, GPS observations just upstream in south-central Ohio show PW values near or in excess of 2 inches, which indicates significant, deep moisture impinging on the Appalachians. Therefore, flash flooding could also be more prevalent in these areas.