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jaxjagman

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  1. jaxjagman

    ENSO

    jaxjagman replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    Like to see the next update from CPC.The TAO shows warming into the subsurface getting into R3 today from a more suppressed Kelvin.The CFS still shows a WWB getting into R3 around mid month but without a more robust Rossby as it was showing earlier, so this WWB goes further east, so this would/could help kick up a CCKW as being shown
  2. jaxjagman

    ENSO

    jaxjagman replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    But this can be just as volatile as the pattern we are seeing right now in 1.2
  3. jaxjagman
    Pattern in the long range looks really volatile, Hagibis is going to play an importanat part
  4. jaxjagman

    ENSO

    jaxjagman replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    Slight push to the west with the warm SST'S at the surface and subsurface on this map.Kelvin passed 3.4 and into 3 so they have been cooling some the past couple days.The cold pocket though east of 120W in the subsurface in region3 keeps getting smaller and smaller
  5. jaxjagman

    ENSO

    jaxjagman replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    Seasonals are coming out,NMME looks to cool right now and GOES is certainly the outlier.Think if i were to make a bold prediction with the ENS0, GFDL FLOR would be my top choice going into winter,by these models
  6. jaxjagman
    looks more wind by the outflows,either way,HRRR is not doing very well,we are fixing to get some good rains soon into the Mid Valley Tornado Warning TNC023-039-071-077-109-070445- /O.NEW.KMEG.TO.W.0033.191007T0400Z-191007T0445Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Memphis TN 1100 PM CDT Sun Oct 6 2019 The National Weather Service in Memphis has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Southeastern Henderson County in western Tennessee... Northeastern McNairy County in western Tennessee... Northern Hardin County in western Tennessee... East central Chester County in western Tennessee... Southern Decatur County in western Tennessee... * Until 1145 PM CDT. * At 1100 PM CDT, doppler radar indicated a severe thunderstorm producing a tornado was located near Jacks Creek, or 10 miles southeast of Henderson, moving east at 40 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * Locations impacted include... Adamsville, Decaturville, Sardis, Jacks Creek, Morris Chapel, Montgomery, Scotts Hill, Saltillo, Milledgeville, Enville, Right, Haney, Hinkle, Roby, Pleasant Grove, Cabo, Red Walnut, Thurman, Lick Skillet and Sibley.
  7. jaxjagman
    Best rains are coming through here in some time and even more convection than i thought,nice
  8. jaxjagman
    Think in the long range you should see what this WWB does before a robust Rossby wave kills it off around 120W into region 3,this could really warm region 3 up seemingly and even spawn up a new Kelvin with this, CFS has been rather consistent with this
  9. jaxjagman
    Not sure if that is going to be right,these SST'S seemingly keep getting warmer east of the IDL into the surface and into the thermocline,guess we'll see.I can see the warmth more basin wide tho
  10. jaxjagman
    I usually just post on our sub-forum every once in awhile post here,but why do ya'll keep thinking this will be a west based Nino and not a wide spread Nino,the subsurface to me is just brutal warm to suggest this
  11. jaxjagman
    Nice bowed cell with some wind headed towards us,hope it dont fizzle out Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Nashville TN 846 PM CDT Sun Oct 6 2019 TNZ025>027-057-059-060-070245- Hickman TN-Williamson TN-Dickson TN-Davidson TN-Maury TN-Cheatham TN- 846 PM CDT Sun Oct 6 2019 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN DAVIDSON...SOUTHEASTERN DICKSON...NORTH CENTRAL MAURY...WILLIAMSON...SOUTH CENTRAL CHEATHAM AND NORTHEASTERN HICKMAN COUNTIES UNTIL 945 PM CDT... At 845 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10 miles southeast of Burns, or near Bon Aqua, moving east at 40 mph. Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm. Locations impacted include... Franklin, Brentwood, Nolensville, Forest Hills, Oak Hill, White Bluff, Belle Meade, Kingston Springs, Thompson`s Station, Pegram, Burns, Bellevue, Antioch, Fairview, Berry Hill, Primm Springs, Natchez Trace At Highway 96, Triune and Leipers Fork. This includes the following highways... Interstate 40 between mile markers 176 and 199. Interstate 65 between mile markers 58 and 80. Interstate 24 between mile markers 53 and 61. Interstate 840 between mile markers 1 and 43. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
  12. jaxjagman

    ENSO

    jaxjagman replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    CFS continues to be consistent with a WWB east of 120W then runs into a robust Rossby and weakens it,still have to watch out for a potential to initiate a KW,the subsurface continues to warm east of the IDL.
  13. jaxjagman
    Be nice to see the phoon re-curve further east for a change.Going with the Euro it's going to hit SE Japan and then get absorbed by the half way decent trough moving through East Asia around D8, by the Euro this afternoon,we could possibly have a trough in the east,roughly around 15-16 days give or take if it is right
  14. jaxjagman
    Some convection around around our area,getting a little rain so far.HRRR shows the LLJ kicking up along with the low level shear, in a few hours,should kick up some good rains west of I-65 later on tonight,it's good news for us as we went into a severe drought last week,per the drought monitor
  15. jaxjagman
    Probably have to wait and see,never like to see a drought this time of season.Seasonals should start rolling out anytime,really like to see what they show
  16. jaxjagman
    Easterlies into the IO today shows it weakens sooner than what CFS has been showing recently,not really sure where the MJO will come out or how strong it will be.Still looks like a WWB around 120W,but there seems to be a more robust Rossby Wave today this could kill off the wind burst,you can see this around 120W,i still believe this will be possible to kick up a Kelvin east of the IDL
  17. jaxjagman
    Our grass right now when you walk on it is like if you put a hand full of chips in your hand and squeeze them,crunch,crunch.The foliage is just as sad,with some trees already changing colors and the others the leaves are just drooping downwards to the ground,pretty sad. SPC has west of I-65 in a marginal risk tomorrow,right now the Euro strenghtens the LLJ's into Mid Valley into the east,so chances are if you were to get a severe t-storm with wind,leave loss could be sig.Not a great year for foliage for sure
  18. jaxjagman

    ENSO

    jaxjagman replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    Agree,SE also is getting into a severe drought,we really need something to thump them hard
  19. jaxjagman
    Not sure what to think about this winter.I'm on the side right now for the ENSO to be on the warmer side into winter.More Nino and not neutral.The easterlies into the IO are the strongest they've been since 2001,but this was a ending of a LaNina year early on that stayed neutral negative the rest of the year in 2001.The sea ice is competing with 2012 for an annual low,which there was a severe drought into into the plains and even into parts of the SE in 2012,but either way this year will be well below the median from 1981-2010 early on
  20. jaxjagman
    Trough going through East Asia today and then a couple more right now every 3-4 days after, showing by the Euro,so seemingly we could have 3 troughs upcoming after this one in a couple days,but we'll see.Seems like after that lots of of uncertainy,where is the MJO? If the easterlies into the IO is RIGHT by the CFS this could last into Nov.So the MJO could become incoherent upcoming.Seems like this is what the seasonal European Centre is showing,tho certainly with spread.Think like Jeff said we'll warm up again just after the mid month
  21. jaxjagman

    ENSO

    jaxjagman replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    Surface and subsurface east of the IDL continue to warm,tho it's still cool into the subsurface around east of 120W.CFS shows a WWB making it slightly past 120W before it meets a Rossby wave and weakens it mid month,but this could help initiate a KW east of the IDL,so if were to be right you'd see some slight warming into 3 past the mid month i'd think
  22. jaxjagman
    US National Weather Service Nashville Tennessee The temperature at the Nashville International Airport has reached 98° for a second straight day. This obviously ties the all-time record high for October that was set yesterday, and breaks the record for October 2 by a whopping 7°. The previous record of 91° was set in 1953. Also, today is the 97th time we have reached 90° in 2019, which sets a new record for 90° days in a single year. We have one more day of extreme heat to endure before cooler, wetter weather makes it's long-overdue appearance. It's about to be fall, y'all.
  23. jaxjagman
    US National Weather Service Nashville Tennessee Well, we've gone and done it now. At 11:56 a.m., the temperature at the Nashville International Airport reached 95°, which makes today the warmest October day in the city's history. The previous record of 94° was set on October 1, 1953. In addition, this is the 96th time we have reached 90° or better in 2019, tying the 1954 record for most 90° days in a single year.
  24. jaxjagman
    Seems like the GFS and Euro met somewhat halfway last night,weak and weaker instability.Nothing much to see right now.Good news i reckon seems like over an inch of rain,least right now.
  25. jaxjagman
    Be nice to watch and hear some good t-storms Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2019 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... A progressive pattern at mid/upper levels is forecast through the extended forecast period. An upper trough/low should move quickly eastward across the Great Lakes, OH Valley, Northeast, and Mid-Atlantic on Day 4/Thursday. A cold front is also expected to shift quickly eastward parts of these regions. Minimal instability is currently shown by medium-range guidance ahead of the front, owing mainly to poor low and mid-level lapse rates. Therefore, severe potential Thursday afternoon ahead of the front appears low. Another upper trough should amplify and shift eastward across the western CONUS and into the Plains from Day 4/Thursday into Day 5/Friday. There is still variability with the amplitude of this feature by Day 5/Friday, which impacts the degree of low-level mass response and moisture return across the Plains. Some severe risk may ultimately develop Friday evening/night across part of the central Plains, but this threat may remain rather isolated. There is currently too much uncertainty regarding instability and the evolution of the upper trough to include any probabilities for organized severe thunderstorms. Differences regarding the evolution of the upper trough across the Plains and eastern CONUS become much more pronounced from Day 6/Saturday onward. Still, depending on low-level moisture return, there may be isolated severe potential across parts of the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley, TN Valley, and Southeast next weekend into early next week ahead of a cold front. However, overall predictability remains far too low to include any areas at this time.
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