Jump to content

jaxjagman

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    8,699

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by jaxjagman

  1. jaxjagman

    ENSO

    jaxjagman replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

  2. jaxjagman
    Been nothing but a crappie week for us,not only a kid being sick and a deer hitting our car but our fridge went out and we lost everything in it,been nothing but a suckie week.Luckily we have home owner insurance that covers the fridge is the only thing good about it.
  3. jaxjagman
    Have to see further model runs but right now CIPS and the Euro would suggest some strong storms into the warm sector in the long range towards the end of next weekend
  4. jaxjagman
    PV looks to be headed towards Eurasia,it's not a very exciting look at all the first half of Dec if at all
  5. jaxjagman
    Gotta get that flu shot Jeff like Carver said.My daughter has had bronchitis and of course she shared the wealth with me,finally feeling better today.My wife was going to work Sunday in Maryville and a kamikazee deer took aim at our new car on I-40.Progressive said the estimate so far was 6 grand to fix but would let us know the total amount at least it's no-fault but glad she didn't wreck,i know i'd have freaked out
  6. jaxjagman
    GFS is like the old Bullwinkle and Rocky Cartoon.Hey Rocky"Watch me pull cold weather out my hat" Again !!!But that trick never works
  7. jaxjagman

    ENSO

    jaxjagman replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    Not much comparison with the IO this year with last,it did have a slight burst around the 26th as the map i'm showing from last year,but this IO is going to seemingly be stronger than normal into most of Dec.Last year the MJO was just getting into the WH and Africa towards the end of Nov,we had our first hard freeze or to say it got cold here ,21 on Nov 28
  8. jaxjagman

    ENSO

    jaxjagman replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    Slight warming,other than 1.2 every other region is above 0.5
  9. jaxjagman
    Guess the good news it's not winter yet,Euro now shows us warming up into next weekend mid week and as much as 10C "AN" Saturday then a front bumps us back down.Last year we didn't see the teens in Nov but on the 15th of Nov., we had some light snow hi was 37 low was 28
  10. jaxjagman
    Use this.When you use the MJO of various models make sure you look at the time stamp,some models don't run no more,But the Euro and GEFS does update regulary each day. http://www.frontierweather.com/climateandtools.html
  11. jaxjagman
    Euro shows a system coming off the Lee,no artic highs behind it but the storm does go -VE tilt into the plains which would cool us down after,by the Euro we could see the entrance of a 110-120kt jet with the 850's warming above 10C,so you can't rule out severe,but i'm looking at the Euro 9-10 days away,so you should know the drill by now..lol
  12. jaxjagman
    Yeah you can look at Berlin https://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/winterdiagnostics/index.html
  13. jaxjagman
    I was actually just looking at the sunspot years and comparing those years with the strong +IOD event years which,these strong IOD events generally happened in the mid decade unlike this year is quite opposite,you can see my post on the ENSO thread about the IOD,but during this time in 1994 and 1997 there was no SSWE and 2006 which would be the 4th strongest IOD even since 1980 had a SSWE happened in Feb23,this seems odd to me because when you have the low min of the sun cycle you'd have a stronger PV and not weak seemingly
  14. jaxjagman
    PV has been stronger than avg lately but it's warming right now the last couple days.Doubt we see a late Dec SWWE like last year
  15. jaxjagman
    There is a workshop starting tomorrow,i'm not sure of the exact time frame for us but Amy Butler will be in it Workshop: Stratospheric predictability and impact on the troposphere https://www.ecmwf.int/en/learning/workshops/workshop-stratospheric-predictability-impact-troposphere
  16. jaxjagman
    I keep seeing some of the long range models hinting at a big system into wk 3,Control last evening had a big Miller B in the NE,sure it will show something different tho like always this afternoon.Euro this afternoon is hinting at a trough that will go -ve tilt somewhere around the S/Plains,wouldn't trust the Euro tho right now towards 8-10 days
  17. jaxjagman
    Slowly the CFS is catching on each day,but it's not right still. Took a snip from the last oceans update 11-15 Last Updated: 11.15.19 Valid: 11.16.19 - 11.26.19 The MJO is now in RMM Phase 8. The ECMWF and GEFS forecast the MJO to weaken during the next week, but the CFS continues to forecast the MJO to propagate to the Indian Ocean with significant amplitude during the next two weeks. As stated in the original discussion Tuesday, it's likely that the CFS is influenced by the positive IOD event projecting on to the RMM Phase 1 structure and its MJO signal is therefore not real. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ghazards/
  18. jaxjagman
    Seemingly on todays runs the MJO could stay into Africa and the western IO until the middle of Dec at least,but this could change
  19. jaxjagman
    There has been some good rises in the SST's in the NEPac recently,just what the EPS is showing in it's 10 day forecast you should see the PDO uptick and not down
  20. jaxjagman
    That is not a -PDO look right now
  21. jaxjagman
  22. jaxjagman

    ENSO

    jaxjagman replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    pdo.eps
  23. jaxjagman
    Here's the control,end of the run
  24. jaxjagman
    In Dec phases 3-6 are warm phases.Right now other than weak KW passing through around the East Pac end of the month the MJO towards the end of the month is getting into the Westen IO but after this the signs weaken,more likely into the COD,have to wait and see
  25. jaxjagman
    Have to wait and see on the MJO, IMHO.The RMM'S are showing the progression again will slow down , thanks to the +IOD so seemingly the MJO is going to creep though Africa and then the Westen IO.The RMM's show today the MJO is going to get back into the Western IO then go back into COD.IF, it goes into the COD and stays more or less out of the Maritime,these are cold phases into Dec.But we'll have to wait and see right now,but i don't believe it's as progressive as the CFS is showing
×
×
  • Create New...