jaxjagman

Yeah you can look at Berlin https://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/winterdiagnostics/index.html

I was actually just looking at the sunspot years and comparing those years with the strong +IOD event years which,these strong IOD events generally happened in the mid decade unlike this year is quite opposite,you can see my post on the ENSO thread about the IOD,but during this time in 1994 and 1997 there was no SSWE and 2006 which would be the 4th strongest IOD even since 1980 had a SSWE happened in Feb23,this seems odd to me because when you have the low min of the sun cycle you'd have a stronger PV and not weak seemingly

PV has been stronger than avg lately but it's warming right now the last couple days.Doubt we see a late Dec SWWE like last year

There is a workshop starting tomorrow,i'm not sure of the exact time frame for us but Amy Butler will be in it Workshop: Stratospheric predictability and impact on the troposphere https://www.ecmwf.int/en/learning/workshops/workshop-stratospheric-predictability-impact-troposphere

I keep seeing some of the long range models hinting at a big system into wk 3,Control last evening had a big Miller B in the NE,sure it will show something different tho like always this afternoon.Euro this afternoon is hinting at a trough that will go -ve tilt somewhere around the S/Plains,wouldn't trust the Euro tho right now towards 8-10 days

Slowly the CFS is catching on each day,but it's not right still. Took a snip from the last oceans update 11-15 Last Updated: 11.15.19 Valid: 11.16.19 - 11.26.19 The MJO is now in RMM Phase 8. The ECMWF and GEFS forecast the MJO to weaken during the next week, but the CFS continues to forecast the MJO to propagate to the Indian Ocean with significant amplitude during the next two weeks. As stated in the original discussion Tuesday, it's likely that the CFS is influenced by the positive IOD event projecting on to the RMM Phase 1 structure and its MJO signal is therefore not real. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ghazards/

Seemingly on todays runs the MJO could stay into Africa and the western IO until the middle of Dec at least,but this could change

There has been some good rises in the SST's in the NEPac recently,just what the EPS is showing in it's 10 day forecast you should see the PDO uptick and not down

That is not a -PDO look right now

pdo.eps

Here's the control,end of the run

In Dec phases 3-6 are warm phases.Right now other than weak KW passing through around the East Pac end of the month the MJO towards the end of the month is getting into the Westen IO but after this the signs weaken,more likely into the COD,have to wait and see

Have to wait and see on the MJO, IMHO.The RMM'S are showing the progression again will slow down , thanks to the +IOD so seemingly the MJO is going to creep though Africa and then the Westen IO.The RMM's show today the MJO is going to get back into the Western IO then go back into COD.IF, it goes into the COD and stays more or less out of the Maritime,these are cold phases into Dec.But we'll have to wait and see right now,but i don't believe it's as progressive as the CFS is showing

Jamstec update

See what the visualization maps show when they update.But this looks like it could be the strongest +IOD on record,per JAMSTEC

JAMSTEC isn't backing down on the cold,it's been showing cold since the Sept update

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/elnino/outlook.html

See what happens anyways,bout OBS time shortly

Gonna depend for everyone seemingly how fast the cold air sweepn in looking at MEM ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: MEM LAT= 35.05 LON= -90.00 ELE= 285 00Z NOV11 2 M 2 M 2 M SFC SFC 3/6 FROZN TOTAL MXT MNT TMP DEW WIND HR PCP CLOUD (F) (F) (F) (F) (KTS) (IN) (IN) (PCT) MON 00Z 11-NOV 55.6 45.1 18007 97 MON 03Z 11-NOV 53.5 41.7 18008 84 MON 06Z 11-NOV 55.6 51.1 51.0 41.8 19007 89 MON 09Z 11-NOV 48.6 43.1 19006 0.00 0.00 5 MON 12Z 11-NOV 51.0 47.7 48.0 43.7 19007 0.00 0.00 42 MON 15Z 11-NOV 56.6 47.8 19008 0.04 0.00 91 MON 18Z 11-NOV 58.6 48.0 57.9 52.1 22005 0.12 0.00 100 MON 21Z 11-NOV 53.6 51.6 34010 0.26 0.00 100 TUE 00Z 12-NOV 57.9 38.4 37.9 35.2 36017 0.45 0.00 100 TUE 03Z 12-NOV 32.0 28.9 00016 0.16 0.01 100 TUE 06Z 12-NOV 37.9 29.8 29.7 20.1 36015 0.17 0.02 97 TUE 09Z 12-NOV 25.2 9.1 36015 0.00 0.00 43

Nice hit for guys east tho,hope someone scores ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: TYS LAT= 35.82 LON= -83.98 ELE= 981 00Z NOV11 2 M 2 M 2 M SFC SFC 3/6 FROZN TOTAL MXT MNT TMP DEW WIND HR PCP CLOUD (F) (F) (F) (F) (KTS) (IN) (IN) (PCT) MON 00Z 11-NOV 51.0 39.9 22004 0 MON 03Z 11-NOV 48.3 38.0 20005 96 MON 06Z 11-NOV 52.0 46.8 46.8 38.0 20004 100 MON 09Z 11-NOV 44.4 38.4 20003 0.00 0.00 95 MON 12Z 11-NOV 46.8 43.1 43.2 39.1 19003 0.00 0.00 64 MON 15Z 11-NOV 54.7 41.8 23005 0.00 0.00 23 MON 18Z 11-NOV 61.2 43.0 61.3 42.5 22007 0.00 0.00 49 MON 21Z 11-NOV 59.0 44.0 24006 0.00 0.00 88 TUE 00Z 12-NOV 62.3 54.4 54.3 45.0 20006 0.02 0.00 98 TUE 03Z 12-NOV 52.7 46.2 22006 0.01 0.00 100 TUE 06Z 12-NOV 54.3 45.9 45.6 45.2 34008 0.10 0.00 100 TUE 09Z 12-NOV 35.6 34.7 36008 0.20 0.01 100 TUE 12Z 12-NOV 45.6 31.5 31.4 29.0 36008 0.47 0.27 100 TUE 15Z 12-NOV 29.8 23.4 36009 0.06 0.06 100 ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: TRI LAT= 36.47 LON= -82.40 ELE= 1519 00Z NOV11 2 M 2 M 2 M SFC SFC 3/6 FROZN TOTAL MXT MNT TMP DEW WIND HR PCP CLOUD (F) (F) (F) (F) (KTS) (IN) (IN) (PCT) MON 00Z 11-NOV 46.6 38.0 20004 0 MON 03Z 11-NOV 44.6 38.3 17003 0 MON 06Z 11-NOV 48.2 42.2 44.2 37.2 30001 100 MON 09Z 11-NOV 40.2 36.2 14003 0.00 0.00 93 MON 12Z 11-NOV 46.0 37.9 38.4 35.3 18002 0.00 0.00 96 MON 15Z 11-NOV 53.5 40.2 24003 0.00 0.00 22 MON 18Z 11-NOV 60.1 38.1 60.2 40.3 24006 0.00 0.00 66 MON 21Z 11-NOV 58.6 42.6 25005 0.00 0.00 91 TUE 00Z 12-NOV 61.0 52.3 52.1 42.2 23005 0.00 0.00 86 TUE 03Z 12-NOV 49.4 44.7 22005 0.02 0.00 99 TUE 06Z 12-NOV 52.2 47.6 47.5 46.3 23004 0.05 0.00 100 TUE 09Z 12-NOV 38.8 38.6 33006 0.18 0.00 100 TUE 12Z 12-NOV 47.7 32.3 32.2 30.2 32007 0.35 0.13 100 TUE 15Z 12-NOV 30.2 23.1 33008 0.12 0.12 100 TUE 18Z 12-NOV 32.2 29.6 30.7 17.9 33009 0.12 0.12 94

Would actually put a nozzle in Jeff where he says it cant snow..lol ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: CHA LAT= 35.03 LON= -85.20 ELE= 689 00Z NOV11 2 M 2 M 2 M SFC SFC 3/6 FROZN TOTAL MXT MNT TMP DEW WIND HR PCP CLOUD (F) (F) (F) (F) (KTS) (IN) (IN) (PCT) MON 00Z 11-NOV 51.1 40.6 20005 58 MON 03Z 11-NOV 49.0 39.2 20005 100 MON 06Z 11-NOV 52.0 46.9 47.4 38.9 19005 98 MON 09Z 11-NOV 45.5 39.6 20004 0.00 0.00 88 MON 12Z 11-NOV 47.6 42.8 42.8 39.2 18004 0.00 0.00 4 MON 15Z 11-NOV 55.4 43.0 19003 0.00 0.00 2 MON 18Z 11-NOV 63.1 42.6 63.2 44.4 22006 0.00 0.00 89 MON 21Z 11-NOV 61.3 45.8 22004 0.00 0.00 95 TUE 00Z 12-NOV 63.3 55.3 55.1 46.9 20003 0.01 0.00 100 TUE 03Z 12-NOV 54.1 49.9 23004 0.01 0.00 100 TUE 06Z 12-NOV 55.1 46.6 45.6 45.4 33009 0.10 0.00 100 TUE 09Z 12-NOV 36.4 36.2 35010 0.17 0.00 100 TUE 12Z 12-NOV 45.6 32.1 31.9 29.4 35011 0.42 0.15 100 TUE 15Z 12-NOV 30.8 21.8 35012 0.01 0.01 99 TUE 18Z 12-NOV 35.2 30.4 35.3 17.9 35010 0.01 0.01 49

Euro bumped up and shows a change over around 9 or 10 tomorrow night for us,with almost 2" ,more in the east,only a dusting in the SW Valley more for you guys in the east,we'll see ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BNA LAT= 36.12 LON= -86.68 ELE= 591 00Z NOV11 2 M 2 M 2 M SFC SFC 3/6 FROZN TOTAL MXT MNT TMP DEW WIND HR PCP CLOUD (F) (F) (F) (F) (KTS) (IN) (IN) (PCT) MON 00Z 11-NOV 53.8 42.1 19007 81 MON 03Z 11-NOV 51.2 41.5 19006 100 MON 06Z 11-NOV 54.1 48.7 48.6 41.1 19006 97 MON 09Z 11-NOV 45.9 40.9 20005 0.00 0.00 83 MON 12Z 11-NOV 48.6 44.7 44.7 40.9 19006 0.00 0.00 2 MON 15Z 11-NOV 55.6 43.8 20007 0.00 0.00 57 MON 18Z 11-NOV 62.7 44.5 62.7 46.3 22007 0.00 0.00 98 MON 21Z 11-NOV 58.0 50.9 24003 0.03 0.00 100 TUE 00Z 12-NOV 62.8 48.6 48.0 47.2 33010 0.09 0.00 100 TUE 03Z 12-NOV 36.1 35.6 35011 0.13 0.01 100 TUE 06Z 12-NOV 48.1 30.6 30.4 27.4 34012 0.30 0.14 100 TUE 09Z 12-NOV 27.1 18.9 35013 0.03 0.03 83 TUE 12Z 12-NOV 30.4 22.8 22.6 11.6 35011 0.03 0.03 0 TUE 15Z 12-NOV 24.1 7.9 35011 0.00 0.00 0

Well we have the snow dome here..lol,,Been lasting for years