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jaxjagman

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  1. jaxjagman
    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2019 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance remains in relatively good agreement that a shortwave trough will move from the Great Basin into the southern/central Plains on D4/Sunday, continuing through the mid MS Valley and into the Upper Great Lakes on D5/Monday. Guidance differs on the location of the surface low associated with this shortwave trough, with current forecasts of its position at 12Z D5/Monday ranging from the KS/OK/MO border intersection to central TX. Even with these differences, consensus is good for a moist and moderately unstable environment from the Lower MS Valley through the TN Valley on D5/Monday ahead of the approaching shortwave. Strong vertical shear will extend across this region, supporting long hodographs and supercell wind profiles. Consequently, there is a threat for severe thunderstorms D5/Monday afternoon and evening from the Mid-South into the Lower OH Valley as the shortwave trough and associated cold front move through. Forecast confidence is high enough to introduce severe probabilities. Refinements to this area are likely in subsequent forecast as mesoscale details become more apparent. Showers and thunderstorms are likely along the front as it continues eastward through the remainder of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic on D6/Tuesday. However, favorable low-level moisture and instability will become increasingly displaced south of the better large-scale forcing for ascent, suggesting a more limited severe risk. Dry and stable conditions are currently expected across the CONUS on D7/Wednesday and D8/Thursday.
  2. jaxjagman
    See what happens Monday,probably a better chance into Ms right now where better instability should be. Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2019 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... Active upper pattern will continue from the weekend into next week with several systems expected to rotate through the broad cyclonic flow aloft. Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that a negatively tilted shortwave trough will move across the eastern CONUS on D4/Saturday. Thunderstorms are anticipated across FL (and perhaps eastern NC) as a the cold front associated with this shortwave moves through. Instability will be limited but vertical shear will be strong and a few stronger storms are possible. Another strong shortwave trough is forecast to move from the Great Basin/northern Rockies through the central/southern Plains and mid MS Valley into the OH Valley D5/Sunday through D7/Tuesday. Some timing and strength differences exist within the guidance but the overall pattern has shown reasonably good run-to-run and model-to-model consistency. Period between this shortwave and the one before it is enough for decent moisture from the Lower MS Valley into the TN Valley and Southeast. As a result, a moderately moist and unstable air mass is forecast to be place ahead of this maturing system. Given the active pattern, a bit more consistency is needed within the guidance to have enough confidence to delineate any threat areas. However, if current trends continue, probabilities will likely be needed in a succeeding outlook.
  3. jaxjagman
    It is strong but still can get stretched and displaced
  4. jaxjagman
    PV is getting hit by wave one and two now,least it looked better yesterday.maybe it's on to something,maybe not Edit:Should have said the PV is starting to get hit by wave 1and 2,i just woke up
  5. jaxjagman
    YUP,short range models are under doing the dry air,the moisture fizzles out by the time it gets to us
  6. jaxjagman
    http://traffic.brentwoodtn.gov/201091.htm
  7. jaxjagman
    ALL snow now,flurries right now
  8. jaxjagman
    If you look a the sounding from the HRRR and RAP i dont see the dry air that bad not until later on today,this is in our parts
  9. jaxjagman
    Snowing here,some mist mixed in still tho but it's getting better
  10. jaxjagman
    We are going to warm up,didnt mean to post this in the other thread.East Asia is fixing to warm up as the MJO moves into the warm phases,if its right.Think the +IOD is playing with the MJO signal but the Euro and GEFS both show on the RMM's going into the COD into the Maritime,You should see East Asia get more active as the MJO moves along the Maritime which looks to be possible the end of the run with what the Euro is showing. will happenYou should see a trough maybe around the 16th then maybe a stout -PNA,even the GEFS is showing this today with +epo/ao,chances are for a White Cristmas right now looks blah
  11. jaxjagman
    Looks better than a couple days ago.The high temp would be in the early morning and temps would gradually fall during the day.I really believe the orographic lift towards the plateau are going to do much better than what is being shown,seen this to many times
  12. jaxjagman
    18z Euro looks more Control run
  13. jaxjagman
    GFS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: MEM LAT= 35.05 LON= -90.00 ELE= 285 18Z DEC08 * - APPROXIMATED 2 M 850 1000 FZING SFC SFC 3/6 SNCVR TMP TMP 850 HGT WIND PCP HR LIQ (C) (C) THK (FT) (KTS) TYPES (IN) (IN) SUN 18Z 08-DEC 14.3 8.0 135 12364 19009 0.00 SUN 21Z 08-DEC 14.9 8.6 135 12092 19011 0.00 0.00 MON 00Z 09-DEC 12.7 9.4 136 11827 18009 0.00 0.00 MON 03Z 09-DEC 13.5 10.2 136 11473 18012 0.00 0.00 MON 06Z 09-DEC 13.5 9.4 136 11417 19012 0.00 0.00 MON 09Z 09-DEC 13.6 9.7 136 11295 18014 0.00 0.00 MON 12Z 09-DEC 13.4 13.9 136 10717 20013 0.00 0.00 MON 15Z 09-DEC 14.9 10.3 136 11181 20015 RA 0.00 0.00 MON 18Z 09-DEC 17.7 9.7 137 11689 21015 RA 0.00 0.00 MON 21Z 09-DEC 18.6 10.6 137 10839 22013 RA 0.00 0.00 TUE 00Z 10-DEC 17.4 9.2 137 10808 23008 RA 0.01 0.00 TUE 03Z 10-DEC 15.5 9.3 136 10859 31009 0.00 0.00 TUE 06Z 10-DEC 11.3 8.4 134 9964 34011 0.00 0.00 TUE 09Z 10-DEC 5.6 4.4 132 10334 35012 0.00 0.00 TUE 12Z 10-DEC 2.9 1.6 130 6889 35009 RA 0.09 0.00 TUE 15Z 10-DEC 1.7 2.1 130 6951 01010 SN 0.14 0.04 TUE 18Z 10-DEC 1.2 -0.1 130 6108 01009 SN 0.23 0.09 TUE 21Z 10-DEC 0.7 -0.3 130 6946 02007 SN 0.10 0.16 WED 00Z 11-DEC 0.6 -1.5 129 416 02007 SN 0.13 0.24 WED 03Z 11-DEC 0.0 -0.5 130 3000 04005 0.00 0.24 WED 06Z 11-DEC -1.0 1.3 130 6276 03005 0.00 0.24 WED 09Z 11-DEC -2.0 2.1 131 6331 07005 0.00 0.24 WED 12Z 11-DEC -2.0 2.2 131 6348 05004 0.00 0.24 WED 15Z 11-DEC 0.5 1.9 131 6105 06005 0.00 0.24 WED 18Z 11-DEC 4.5 1.9 132 6606 07005 0.00 0.16 WED 21Z 11-DEC 5.5 2.3 132 8113 06005 0.00 0.08 THU 00Z 12-DEC 2.5 2.4 132 7964 06005 0.00 0.08 THU 03Z 12-DEC 1.9 3.0 133 7885 07006 0.00 0.08 THU 06Z 12-DEC 1.3 3.8 133 8051 09006 0.00 0.08 THU 09Z 12-DEC 1.6 4.1 133 8542 08006 0.00 0.08 THU 12Z 12-DEC 1.5 3.8 133 8401 07007 0.00 0.08 THU 15Z 12-DEC 4.1 4.8 133 9940 09009 0.00 0.08 THU 18Z 12-DEC 8.3 5.2 133 10181 10007 0.00 0.04
  14. jaxjagman
    Thes are also 3-hr increments,just pointing that out,just trying to figure out when fz heights fall GFS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: TYS LAT= 35.82 LON= -83.98 ELE= 981 18Z DEC08 * - APPROXIMATED 2 M 850 1000 FZING SFC SFC 3/6 SNCVR TMP TMP 850 HGT WIND PCP HR LIQ (C) (C) THK (FT) (KTS) TYPES (IN) (IN) SUN 18Z 08-DEC 13.1 4.2 134 10607 20003 0.00 SUN 21Z 08-DEC 12.9 5.6 135 10712 31000 0.00 0.00 MON 00Z 09-DEC 9.9 6.8 135 10879 12001 0.00 0.00 MON 03Z 09-DEC 9.3 7.8 135 9087 14001 0.00 0.00 MON 06Z 09-DEC 9.1 7.6 135 9362 14003 0.01 0.00 MON 09Z 09-DEC 8.9 8.4 135 9741 11004 0.01 0.00 MON 12Z 09-DEC 9.1 8.6 135 10304 15004 0.05 0.00 MON 15Z 09-DEC 11.0 9.1 135 11059 16004 0.00 0.00 MON 18Z 09-DEC 14.1 8.0 136 11051 21007 0.00 0.00 MON 21Z 09-DEC 15.9 8.5 137 11181 20010 0.00 0.00 TUE 00Z 10-DEC 15.0 9.0 137 10780 20009 RA 0.00 0.00 TUE 03Z 10-DEC 15.1 9.8 137 11117 21008 RA 0.01 0.00 TUE 06Z 10-DEC 14.9 10.1 137 11401 21008 RA 0.01 0.00 TUE 09Z 10-DEC 15.3 10.3 137 11561 21008 RA 0.02 0.00 TUE 12Z 10-DEC 14.8 9.5 137 11699 28004 RA 0.23 0.00 TUE 15Z 10-DEC 10.4 4.3 134 11558 35004 RA 0.30 0.00 TUE 18Z 10-DEC 7.4 2.5 133 11390 34005 RA 0.40 0.00 TUE 21Z 10-DEC 5.7 1.4 132 10449 00006 RA 0.17 0.00 WED 00Z 11-DEC 3.4 0.5 131 7012 01006 RA 0.34 0.00 WED 03Z 11-DEC 3.1 0.0 131 7281 03005 RA 0.10 0.00 WED 06Z 11-DEC 1.9 -0.7 130 5030 00006 SN 0.20 0.02 WED 09Z 11-DEC 1.0 -1.6 130 2631 01004 SN 0.14 0.15 WED 12Z 11-DEC 0.8 0.9 130 5836 03003 0.15 0.18 WED 15Z 11-DEC 2.6 1.1 131 6235 01004 0.00 0.16 WED 18Z 11-DEC 5.8 -0.1 131 4979 01004 0.00 0.13 WED 21Z 11-DEC 5.8 -0.3 131 4744 03004 0.00 0.08 THU 00Z 12-DEC 2.7 0.3 131 6258 04003 0.00 0.08 THU 03Z 12-DEC 1.5 0.8 131 7225 04004 0.00 0.08 THU 06Z 12-DEC 1.0 1.8 131 8099 06004 0.00 0.08 THU 09Z 12-DEC 0.6 2.8 131 8017 05004 0.00 0.08 THU 12Z 12-DEC 0.4 3.6 132 7980 05004 0.00 0.08 THU 15Z 12-DEC 4.2 4.3 132 8513 05004 0.00 0.08 THU 18Z 12-DEC 8.5 4.4 133 8908 05003 0.00 0.07
  15. jaxjagman
    Pretty close to being the big dog in mId Tn 18z run,the thermals make me squirmish tho GFS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: BNA LAT= 36.12 LON= -86.68 ELE= 591 18Z DEC08 * - APPROXIMATED 2 M 850 1000 FZING SFC SFC 3/6 SNCVR TMP TMP 850 HGT WIND PCP HR LIQ (C) (C) THK (FT) (KTS) TYPES (IN) (IN) SUN 18Z 08-DEC 13.0 5.3 135 11391 18008 0.00 SUN 21Z 08-DEC 12.6 6.1 135 11425 17009 0.00 0.00 MON 00Z 09-DEC 11.8 6.7 135 11708 16011 0.00 0.00 MON 03Z 09-DEC 10.9 7.3 135 11147 17013 0.00 0.00 MON 06Z 09-DEC 11.2 7.9 135 9970 18012 0.00 0.00 MON 09Z 09-DEC 11.7 7.7 135 10358 18013 0.00 0.00 MON 12Z 09-DEC 12.9 7.2 135 10872 18014 0.00 0.00 MON 15Z 09-DEC 15.5 8.6 136 10591 19016 RA 0.00 0.00 MON 18Z 09-DEC 17.2 8.5 137 10695 21015 0.00 0.00 MON 21Z 09-DEC 16.1 8.9 137 11016 22013 RA 0.01 0.00 TUE 00Z 10-DEC 16.8 9.4 137 9911 22012 RA 0.02 0.00 TUE 03Z 10-DEC 16.6 9.6 137 9951 23010 RA 0.02 0.00 TUE 06Z 10-DEC 14.9 8.6 136 9945 28006 RA 0.03 0.00 TUE 09Z 10-DEC 10.0 6.4 134 10072 33010 0.01 0.00 TUE 12Z 10-DEC 4.1 3.0 131 10217 34011 0.02 0.00 TUE 15Z 10-DEC 1.3 0.5 130 6203 34007 SN 0.12 0.02 TUE 18Z 10-DEC 0.5 0.6 129 6742 36008 SN 0.27 0.10 TUE 21Z 10-DEC -0.1 -0.9 129 5370 00007 SN 0.07 0.15 WED 00Z 11-DEC -0.6 -0.8 129 2803 35004 SN 0.16 0.21 WED 03Z 11-DEC -1.2 -1.5 129 120 36006 SN 0.09 0.30 WED 06Z 11-DEC -2.0 0.1 129 3999 02004 0.11 0.35 WED 09Z 11-DEC -4.4 0.3 129 4681 02003 0.00 0.35
  16. jaxjagman
    Control
  17. jaxjagman
    Yeah you can't blame them.I remember a couple/ few ago we was in a WSW,it did nothing but rain from a unexpected warm nose the models never picked up on
  18. jaxjagman
    National Weather Service Nashville TN 207 PM CST Sun Dec 8 2019 .DISCUSSION... It`s fairly breezy this afternoon with quite a bit of cloud cover scattered over the area. The southerly breeze is pulling moisture northward as a broad area of low pressure is organizing over the Rocky Mountain foothills. That is in response of a negatively- tilted longwave trough digging into the western CONUS. Closer to home, a stray shower can`t be ruled out through the rest of the daylight hours as moisture advection continues. The broad area of low pressure will slide east this evening before lifting northeast through the day tomorrow. Models have cut back on the QPF and coverage of shower activity tonight through the first half of Monday. Coverage will increase ahead of frontal passage which will occur Monday night. Behind the cold front, things get interesting. Models are producing quite a bit of post frontal QPF thanks to southwesterly upper flow and a strong jet streak to the north of the area. This will leave Middle Tennessee in the right entrance region of that jet streak Tuesday/Tuesday night. Temperatures will drop through the day on Tuesday and rain will transition to snow with a period of sleet possible in between. Models, besides the Euro, seem bullish with the snow amounts. There`s a couple of reasons for that. Omega in the snow growth region is quite impressive for the Tuesday time frame and frontogenesis is strong due our positioning relative to the jet streak. With any winter weather setup in Middle Tennessee, there are always some potential red flags. First and the most frequent question with post frontal snow events around here is how long will moisture stick around. Model soundings show the low levels beginning to dry out a couple hours after the rain to snow transition. Seeder feeder processes may prolong the snow a couple more hours, but it is something to take note of. Second, it will take some time or decent snowfall rates to get snow to begin to accumulate given warm, wet surfaces. Lastly, if there is a prolonged transition from rain to sleet to snow, that will obviously cut down on snow amounts. All this leads to a low confidence forecast at this time, but we trended toward a slightly snowier forecast. For most of the area, the current forecast is for less than an inch. The northern Plateau and along the Kentucky border could see a little more than an inch. There is plenty that could change over the next 24-48 hours so stay tuned.
  19. jaxjagman
    Heres the NMME'S,for some reason not all the plots updated so i deleted the last maps
  20. jaxjagman

    ENSO

    jaxjagman replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    These last three strong +IOD events have led into at least a moderate to strong LaNina the follwoing year.1995-moderate...1998-strong....2007-strong Few of the seasonals are starting to pick up on a possibly developing LaNina upcoming. The cold pool down into the subsurface continues to shift further eastward,so seems possible right now we are starting to see a developing or Nina conditions in it's early stages
  21. jaxjagman
    I'd be happy with a dusting right now
  22. jaxjagman
    The older days you would get excited with the Euro,not sure these days
  23. jaxjagman
    Just not to confuse the text above,the total would be around 1.5",nothing more
  24. jaxjagman
    I dont know the soundings for the NW RIM other than Paducah,Euro tho keeps showing the colder air getting in faster,not sure i believe it,would be around a inch and a half per inclements 3hrs for BNA ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BNA LAT= 36.12 LON= -86.68 ELE= 591 00Z DEC08 2 M 850 1000 FZING SFC SFC 3/6 SNCVR TMP TMP 850 HGT WIND PCP HR LIQ (C) (C) THK (FT) (KTS) TYPES (IN) (IN) SUN 00Z 08-DEC 7.5 5.2 134 9927 00003 SUN 03Z 08-DEC 5.6 4.7 134 10240 11004 SUN 06Z 08-DEC 4.2 4.2 134 10207 13004 SUN 09Z 08-DEC 6.2 3.6 134 10186 16006 0.00 SUN 12Z 08-DEC 7.1 3.6 134 9998 17007 0.00 SUN 15Z 08-DEC 10.8 3.8 134 9927 17008 0.00 SUN 18Z 08-DEC 14.3 4.6 135 10453 17010 0.00 SUN 21Z 08-DEC 13.9 6.3 135 10684 17008 0.00 MON 00Z 09-DEC 12.2 6.9 135 10743 17008 0.01 MON 03Z 09-DEC 12.0 7.5 135 10544 17009 0.00 MON 06Z 09-DEC 12.2 8.0 135 9931 17009 0.01 MON 09Z 09-DEC 12.1 7.9 135 9806 17010 0.01 MON 12Z 09-DEC 12.9 9.5 136 9718 18011 0.02 MON 15Z 09-DEC 14.4 9.8 136 10323 19012 0.00 MON 18Z 09-DEC 17.2 10.3 137 10289 20013 0.00 MON 21Z 09-DEC 17.1 9.5 137 10510 21010 0.01 TUE 00Z 10-DEC 15.9 10.6 137 10277 21011 0.05 TUE 03Z 10-DEC 16.0 10.7 137 10189 21009 0.04 TUE 06Z 10-DEC 15.7 9.9 137 10471 23008 0.06 TUE 09Z 10-DEC 13.6 8.4 136 10957 32009 0.05 TUE 12Z 10-DEC 7.9 6.2 133 10935 34009 0.14 TUE 15Z 10-DEC 4.1 3.1 131 9804 34009 0.14 TUE 18Z 10-DEC 2.1 1.3 130 8015 34007 0.26 TUE 21Z 10-DEC 1.8 0.4 130 4413 00005 0.10 WED 00Z 11-DEC 0.9 -1.1 129 272 35005 0.17 WED 03Z 11-DEC 0.7 -1.3 129 207 00005 0.04 WED 06Z 11-DEC 0.2 -0.7 129 216 35004 0.04 WED 09Z 11-DEC -0.9 -0.6 129 37 34005 0.00 WED 12Z 11-DEC -3.8 -0.9 129 0 0000
  25. jaxjagman
    Yeah,the Euro use to be gold around 5 days out,its still the best but it still seems the last few years could bust badly even in this time frame
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