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jaxjagman

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  1. jaxjagman
    Pretty close to being the big dog in mId Tn 18z run,the thermals make me squirmish tho GFS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: BNA LAT= 36.12 LON= -86.68 ELE= 591 18Z DEC08 * - APPROXIMATED 2 M 850 1000 FZING SFC SFC 3/6 SNCVR TMP TMP 850 HGT WIND PCP HR LIQ (C) (C) THK (FT) (KTS) TYPES (IN) (IN) SUN 18Z 08-DEC 13.0 5.3 135 11391 18008 0.00 SUN 21Z 08-DEC 12.6 6.1 135 11425 17009 0.00 0.00 MON 00Z 09-DEC 11.8 6.7 135 11708 16011 0.00 0.00 MON 03Z 09-DEC 10.9 7.3 135 11147 17013 0.00 0.00 MON 06Z 09-DEC 11.2 7.9 135 9970 18012 0.00 0.00 MON 09Z 09-DEC 11.7 7.7 135 10358 18013 0.00 0.00 MON 12Z 09-DEC 12.9 7.2 135 10872 18014 0.00 0.00 MON 15Z 09-DEC 15.5 8.6 136 10591 19016 RA 0.00 0.00 MON 18Z 09-DEC 17.2 8.5 137 10695 21015 0.00 0.00 MON 21Z 09-DEC 16.1 8.9 137 11016 22013 RA 0.01 0.00 TUE 00Z 10-DEC 16.8 9.4 137 9911 22012 RA 0.02 0.00 TUE 03Z 10-DEC 16.6 9.6 137 9951 23010 RA 0.02 0.00 TUE 06Z 10-DEC 14.9 8.6 136 9945 28006 RA 0.03 0.00 TUE 09Z 10-DEC 10.0 6.4 134 10072 33010 0.01 0.00 TUE 12Z 10-DEC 4.1 3.0 131 10217 34011 0.02 0.00 TUE 15Z 10-DEC 1.3 0.5 130 6203 34007 SN 0.12 0.02 TUE 18Z 10-DEC 0.5 0.6 129 6742 36008 SN 0.27 0.10 TUE 21Z 10-DEC -0.1 -0.9 129 5370 00007 SN 0.07 0.15 WED 00Z 11-DEC -0.6 -0.8 129 2803 35004 SN 0.16 0.21 WED 03Z 11-DEC -1.2 -1.5 129 120 36006 SN 0.09 0.30 WED 06Z 11-DEC -2.0 0.1 129 3999 02004 0.11 0.35 WED 09Z 11-DEC -4.4 0.3 129 4681 02003 0.00 0.35
  2. jaxjagman
    Control
  3. jaxjagman
    Yeah you can't blame them.I remember a couple/ few ago we was in a WSW,it did nothing but rain from a unexpected warm nose the models never picked up on
  4. jaxjagman
    National Weather Service Nashville TN 207 PM CST Sun Dec 8 2019 .DISCUSSION... It`s fairly breezy this afternoon with quite a bit of cloud cover scattered over the area. The southerly breeze is pulling moisture northward as a broad area of low pressure is organizing over the Rocky Mountain foothills. That is in response of a negatively- tilted longwave trough digging into the western CONUS. Closer to home, a stray shower can`t be ruled out through the rest of the daylight hours as moisture advection continues. The broad area of low pressure will slide east this evening before lifting northeast through the day tomorrow. Models have cut back on the QPF and coverage of shower activity tonight through the first half of Monday. Coverage will increase ahead of frontal passage which will occur Monday night. Behind the cold front, things get interesting. Models are producing quite a bit of post frontal QPF thanks to southwesterly upper flow and a strong jet streak to the north of the area. This will leave Middle Tennessee in the right entrance region of that jet streak Tuesday/Tuesday night. Temperatures will drop through the day on Tuesday and rain will transition to snow with a period of sleet possible in between. Models, besides the Euro, seem bullish with the snow amounts. There`s a couple of reasons for that. Omega in the snow growth region is quite impressive for the Tuesday time frame and frontogenesis is strong due our positioning relative to the jet streak. With any winter weather setup in Middle Tennessee, there are always some potential red flags. First and the most frequent question with post frontal snow events around here is how long will moisture stick around. Model soundings show the low levels beginning to dry out a couple hours after the rain to snow transition. Seeder feeder processes may prolong the snow a couple more hours, but it is something to take note of. Second, it will take some time or decent snowfall rates to get snow to begin to accumulate given warm, wet surfaces. Lastly, if there is a prolonged transition from rain to sleet to snow, that will obviously cut down on snow amounts. All this leads to a low confidence forecast at this time, but we trended toward a slightly snowier forecast. For most of the area, the current forecast is for less than an inch. The northern Plateau and along the Kentucky border could see a little more than an inch. There is plenty that could change over the next 24-48 hours so stay tuned.
  5. jaxjagman
    Heres the NMME'S,for some reason not all the plots updated so i deleted the last maps
  6. jaxjagman

    ENSO

    jaxjagman replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    These last three strong +IOD events have led into at least a moderate to strong LaNina the follwoing year.1995-moderate...1998-strong....2007-strong Few of the seasonals are starting to pick up on a possibly developing LaNina upcoming. The cold pool down into the subsurface continues to shift further eastward,so seems possible right now we are starting to see a developing or Nina conditions in it's early stages
  7. jaxjagman
    I'd be happy with a dusting right now
  8. jaxjagman
    The older days you would get excited with the Euro,not sure these days
  9. jaxjagman
    Just not to confuse the text above,the total would be around 1.5",nothing more
  10. jaxjagman
    I dont know the soundings for the NW RIM other than Paducah,Euro tho keeps showing the colder air getting in faster,not sure i believe it,would be around a inch and a half per inclements 3hrs for BNA ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BNA LAT= 36.12 LON= -86.68 ELE= 591 00Z DEC08 2 M 850 1000 FZING SFC SFC 3/6 SNCVR TMP TMP 850 HGT WIND PCP HR LIQ (C) (C) THK (FT) (KTS) TYPES (IN) (IN) SUN 00Z 08-DEC 7.5 5.2 134 9927 00003 SUN 03Z 08-DEC 5.6 4.7 134 10240 11004 SUN 06Z 08-DEC 4.2 4.2 134 10207 13004 SUN 09Z 08-DEC 6.2 3.6 134 10186 16006 0.00 SUN 12Z 08-DEC 7.1 3.6 134 9998 17007 0.00 SUN 15Z 08-DEC 10.8 3.8 134 9927 17008 0.00 SUN 18Z 08-DEC 14.3 4.6 135 10453 17010 0.00 SUN 21Z 08-DEC 13.9 6.3 135 10684 17008 0.00 MON 00Z 09-DEC 12.2 6.9 135 10743 17008 0.01 MON 03Z 09-DEC 12.0 7.5 135 10544 17009 0.00 MON 06Z 09-DEC 12.2 8.0 135 9931 17009 0.01 MON 09Z 09-DEC 12.1 7.9 135 9806 17010 0.01 MON 12Z 09-DEC 12.9 9.5 136 9718 18011 0.02 MON 15Z 09-DEC 14.4 9.8 136 10323 19012 0.00 MON 18Z 09-DEC 17.2 10.3 137 10289 20013 0.00 MON 21Z 09-DEC 17.1 9.5 137 10510 21010 0.01 TUE 00Z 10-DEC 15.9 10.6 137 10277 21011 0.05 TUE 03Z 10-DEC 16.0 10.7 137 10189 21009 0.04 TUE 06Z 10-DEC 15.7 9.9 137 10471 23008 0.06 TUE 09Z 10-DEC 13.6 8.4 136 10957 32009 0.05 TUE 12Z 10-DEC 7.9 6.2 133 10935 34009 0.14 TUE 15Z 10-DEC 4.1 3.1 131 9804 34009 0.14 TUE 18Z 10-DEC 2.1 1.3 130 8015 34007 0.26 TUE 21Z 10-DEC 1.8 0.4 130 4413 00005 0.10 WED 00Z 11-DEC 0.9 -1.1 129 272 35005 0.17 WED 03Z 11-DEC 0.7 -1.3 129 207 00005 0.04 WED 06Z 11-DEC 0.2 -0.7 129 216 35004 0.04 WED 09Z 11-DEC -0.9 -0.6 129 37 34005 0.00 WED 12Z 11-DEC -3.8 -0.9 129 0 0000
  11. jaxjagman
    Yeah,the Euro use to be gold around 5 days out,its still the best but it still seems the last few years could bust badly even in this time frame
  12. jaxjagman
    ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: MEM LAT= 35.05 LON= -90.00 ELE= 285 18Z DEC07 2 M 2 M 2 M SFC SFC 6 HR FROZN TOTAL MXT MNT TMP DEW WIND QPF PCP CLOUD (F) (F) (F) (F) (KTS) (IN) (IN) (PCT) SAT 18Z 07-DEC 47.2 41.9 36003 100 SUN 00Z 08-DEC 51.6 43.6 43.4 41.6 33003 0 SUN 06Z 08-DEC 43.4 38.2 39.1 38.3 10004 0.00 0.00 97 SUN 12Z 08-DEC 40.2 39.0 40.1 38.8 15004 0.00 0.00 5 SUN 18Z 08-DEC 61.1 40.1 61.2 50.7 18009 0.00 0.00 81 MON 00Z 09-DEC 62.7 55.8 55.6 51.3 16006 0.00 0.00 96 MON 06Z 09-DEC 56.8 55.5 56.2 53.1 18010 0.00 0.00 98 MON 12Z 09-DEC 56.2 54.9 55.2 50.6 19012 0.00 0.00 99 MON 18Z 09-DEC 61.1 55.1 61.3 57.2 20015 0.00 0.00 100 TUE 00Z 10-DEC 63.6 61.3 63.3 60.7 21009 0.02 0.00 99 TUE 06Z 10-DEC 63.4 56.6 56.4 53.4 31007 0.01 0.00 98 TUE 12Z 10-DEC 56.5 44.7 44.6 42.3 35010 0.15 0.00 100 TUE 18Z 10-DEC 44.6 37.2 37.1 31.8 00012 0.08 0.00 100 WED 00Z 11-DEC 37.2 34.7 35.3 22.2 02006 0.08 0.08 99 WED 06Z 11-DEC 35.6 32.0 31.8 17.7 02006 0.00 0.00 0 WED 12Z 11-DEC 31.8 27.6 27.5 15.8 04004 0.00 0.00 0
  13. jaxjagman
    I know,but you live in a better enviornment than us ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: CSV LAT= 35.95 LON= -85.08 ELE= 1880 18Z DEC07 2 M 2 M 2 M SFC SFC 6 HR FROZN TOTAL MXT MNT TMP DEW WIND QPF PCP CLOUD (F) (F) (F) (F) (KTS) (IN) (IN) (PCT) SAT 18Z 07-DEC 53.5 39.8 03001 78 SUN 00Z 08-DEC 56.1 44.0 43.8 39.5 06004 4 SUN 06Z 08-DEC 43.8 41.0 41.3 38.9 15006 0.00 0.00 5 SUN 12Z 08-DEC 42.9 41.1 42.1 38.8 16008 0.00 0.00 89 SUN 18Z 08-DEC 53.1 41.7 53.2 39.5 17010 0.00 0.00 23 MON 00Z 09-DEC 53.7 48.7 49.1 38.1 17010 0.00 0.00 100 MON 06Z 09-DEC 49.8 47.1 47.0 43.0 17011 0.02 0.00 100 MON 12Z 09-DEC 48.9 46.6 48.6 47.1 18011 0.04 0.00 100 MON 18Z 09-DEC 56.5 48.6 56.7 53.0 19014 0.01 0.00 100 TUE 00Z 10-DEC 59.5 56.3 57.9 54.4 20010 0.01 0.00 100 TUE 06Z 10-DEC 58.0 56.8 57.4 56.4 21009 0.04 0.00 100 TUE 12Z 10-DEC 57.8 55.7 55.6 55.5 25003 0.20 0.00 99 TUE 18Z 10-DEC 55.9 44.5 44.3 41.9 34009 0.21 0.00 100 WED 00Z 11-DEC 44.3 34.9 34.8 34.5 35009 0.45 0.01 100 WED 06Z 11-DEC 34.8 31.0 31.0 27.9 36006 0.27 0.21 100 WED 12Z 11-DEC 31.0 26.3 26.1 21.5 33005 0.01 0.01 15 ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: TRI LAT= 36.47 LON= -82.40 ELE= 1519 18Z DEC07 2 M 2 M 2 M SFC SFC 6 HR FROZN TOTAL MXT MNT TMP DEW WIND QPF PCP CLOUD (F) (F) (F) (F) (KTS) (IN) (IN) (PCT) SAT 18Z 07-DEC 51.2 37.5 35002 24 SUN 00Z 08-DEC 52.6 41.2 40.9 35.0 05005 26 SUN 06Z 08-DEC 41.0 37.4 38.0 35.5 12005 0.00 0.00 13 SUN 12Z 08-DEC 38.1 35.4 36.0 33.2 12005 0.00 0.00 12 SUN 18Z 08-DEC 52.7 35.8 53.0 35.7 16006 0.00 0.00 92 MON 00Z 09-DEC 54.8 44.3 44.3 32.5 14006 0.00 0.00 81 MON 06Z 09-DEC 46.5 42.7 46.3 37.3 16005 0.01 0.00 99 MON 12Z 09-DEC 47.9 44.3 47.2 46.8 16006 0.14 0.00 100 MON 18Z 09-DEC 57.8 47.1 58.1 51.6 19007 0.08 0.00 99 TUE 00Z 10-DEC 61.6 57.3 57.3 52.4 21006 0.01 0.00 98 TUE 06Z 10-DEC 57.4 55.0 55.6 52.3 22005 0.02 0.00 99 TUE 12Z 10-DEC 55.7 53.9 54.2 53.5 19004 0.05 0.00 99 TUE 18Z 10-DEC 58.2 53.8 55.0 54.8 32007 0.32 0.00 100 WED 00Z 11-DEC 55.0 43.3 43.1 43.0 35006 0.57 0.00 100 WED 06Z 11-DEC 43.1 34.7 34.5 34.2 34004 0.32 0.01 100 WED 12Z 11-DEC 34.5 31.8 31.7 30.1 32004 0.24 0.20 100
  14. jaxjagman
    ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: CHA LAT= 35.03 LON= -85.20 ELE= 689 18Z DEC07 2 M 2 M 2 M SFC SFC 6 HR FROZN TOTAL MXT MNT TMP DEW WIND QPF PCP CLOUD (F) (F) (F) (F) (KTS) (IN) (IN) (PCT) SAT 18Z 07-DEC 56.9 43.7 04003 2 SUN 00Z 08-DEC 59.0 47.9 47.7 42.7 05003 14 SUN 06Z 08-DEC 47.8 45.4 46.3 40.6 16005 0.00 0.00 29 SUN 12Z 08-DEC 46.9 44.5 44.6 39.8 16007 0.00 0.00 97 SUN 18Z 08-DEC 54.8 44.1 54.9 38.8 16009 0.00 0.00 99 MON 00Z 09-DEC 55.0 50.7 51.3 39.0 16008 0.00 0.00 100 MON 06Z 09-DEC 51.4 48.1 48.5 43.4 16009 0.01 0.00 100 MON 12Z 09-DEC 49.5 48.4 49.5 48.2 17010 0.04 0.00 99 MON 18Z 09-DEC 58.4 49.5 58.6 56.5 18010 0.04 0.00 100 TUE 00Z 10-DEC 62.4 58.5 60.4 57.4 20008 0.01 0.00 96 TUE 06Z 10-DEC 61.0 58.9 59.1 56.8 19007 0.00 0.00 100 TUE 12Z 10-DEC 59.1 57.0 57.4 57.3 18005 0.17 0.00 100 TUE 18Z 10-DEC 60.1 51.4 51.3 49.4 34008 0.65 0.00 100 WED 00Z 11-DEC 51.6 41.9 41.7 41.5 35008 0.44 0.00 100 WED 06Z 11-DEC 41.7 34.9 35.0 34.8 00007 0.32 0.04 100 WED 12Z 11-DEC 35.0 32.1 32.0 29.1 34007 0.07 0.04 80
  15. jaxjagman
    My model only goes out 90 hrs on the Euro 6z and 18z,probably all you need anyways?..lol.Here's TYS 18Z Euro ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: TYS LAT= 35.82 LON= -83.98 ELE= 981 18Z DEC07 2 M 2 M 2 M SFC SFC 6 HR FROZN TOTAL MXT MNT TMP DEW WIND QPF PCP CLOUD (F) (F) (F) (F) (KTS) (IN) (IN) (PCT) SAT 18Z 07-DEC 55.3 41.9 36004 3 SUN 00Z 08-DEC 56.3 45.5 45.5 40.2 06003 5 SUN 06Z 08-DEC 45.5 40.0 40.4 37.6 11003 0.00 0.00 8 SUN 12Z 08-DEC 40.5 38.1 38.6 36.1 12005 0.00 0.00 83 SUN 18Z 08-DEC 55.5 38.6 55.7 41.3 17004 0.00 0.00 68 MON 00Z 09-DEC 57.8 50.3 50.3 38.2 18004 0.00 0.00 99 MON 06Z 09-DEC 50.4 47.5 47.8 44.1 16003 0.03 0.00 100 MON 12Z 09-DEC 49.4 47.2 49.4 47.1 17003 0.06 0.00 100 MON 18Z 09-DEC 58.5 49.1 58.9 54.0 20009 0.03 0.00 99 TUE 00Z 10-DEC 62.1 58.8 60.1 53.7 21010 0.00 0.00 97 TUE 06Z 10-DEC 61.1 59.6 59.8 56.1 22008 0.01 0.00 99 TUE 12Z 10-DEC 60.0 58.2 58.2 56.5 21006 0.06 0.00 100 TUE 18Z 10-DEC 59.3 51.3 51.1 49.9 36008 0.64 0.00 100 WED 00Z 11-DEC 51.1 40.7 40.7 40.2 02006 0.46 0.00 100 WED 06Z 11-DEC 40.7 34.0 33.9 33.5 00005 0.37 0.09 100 WED 12Z 11-DEC 33.9 31.4 31.3 29.1 35005 0.13 0.12 100
  16. jaxjagman
    It's going to depend for us how fast the thermals drop catching the long wave through,the EURO 18Z says it will,hate cold air chasing moisture ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BNA LAT= 36.12 LON= -86.68 ELE= 591 18Z DEC07 2 M 2 M 2 M SFC SFC 6 HR FROZN TOTAL MXT MNT TMP DEW WIND QPF PCP CLOUD (F) (F) (F) (F) (KTS) (IN) (IN) (PCT) SAT 18Z 07-DEC 52.7 42.2 03003 62 SUN 00Z 08-DEC 55.1 44.4 44.0 39.9 04004 1 SUN 06Z 08-DEC 44.1 38.8 38.8 37.5 13004 0.00 0.00 0 SUN 12Z 08-DEC 45.1 38.4 44.6 41.2 17007 0.00 0.00 98 SUN 18Z 08-DEC 57.7 44.6 57.8 44.4 18010 0.00 0.00 71 MON 00Z 09-DEC 59.1 52.7 52.8 44.1 16008 0.00 0.00 100 MON 06Z 09-DEC 54.1 52.5 54.1 49.4 17010 0.01 0.00 100 MON 12Z 09-DEC 55.7 53.7 55.8 53.8 18011 0.02 0.00 100 MON 18Z 09-DEC 63.2 55.8 63.4 53.9 20014 0.01 0.00 100 TUE 00Z 10-DEC 64.2 60.6 61.0 58.6 21010 0.04 0.00 100 TUE 06Z 10-DEC 61.1 59.9 60.2 59.3 23008 0.05 0.00 100 TUE 12Z 10-DEC 60.3 49.3 49.0 48.8 34008 0.16 0.00 100 TUE 18Z 10-DEC 49.0 37.2 37.2 36.4 34007 0.34 0.00 100 WED 00Z 11-DEC 37.2 33.3 33.3 26.8 35006 0.22 0.09 100 WED 06Z 11-DEC 33.3 31.4 31.5 20.3 34006 0.05 0.05 100 WED 12Z 11-DEC 31.5 26.0 25.9 16.5 34005 0.00 0.00 0
  17. jaxjagman
    It's from ACCU that don't account for the actual snow totals of the GEFS,i believe the totals are showing with melting
  18. jaxjagman
    Thanks for the reply back.My PC died so i'm using my gaming laptop,but this helps,thanks.
  19. jaxjagman
    Using Google Chrome,"Awesome screen shot".I'll figure it out to have better quality
  20. jaxjagman
    This work for anyone?
  21. jaxjagman
    You get it to play,like i said it's a new tool i got, so trying to figure out the do and dont's,but basically it shows a half inch for most and a 1" in the higher elevations
  22. jaxjagman
    It doesnt play?
  23. jaxjagman
    First time trying this,i'll get better later on GEFS Mean
  24. jaxjagman
    AwesomeScreenshot-2019-12-7-1575775794118.webm
  25. jaxjagman
    You could just as well look at various maps and see if the soundings are actually correct,thus possibly maybe they are not
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