jaxjagman

Subsurface has been cooling east of the IDL and warming west

HRRR don't look half bad for your area later this afternoon into the early evening

Wouldn't be surprised now if every region is more on the + side today

Very cool

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CST Mon Nov 25 2019 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF THE LOWER TO MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with a threat for mainly damaging wind and a couple of tornadoes will be possible over a portion of the lower to middle Mississippi Valley region Tuesday. ...Lower to middle Mississippi Valley region... A strong shortwave trough now approaching the Great Basin will emerge over the central and southern Plains early Tuesday. A mid-upper jet within base of this feature will strengthen to 120 kt as the shortwave trough ejects negatively tilted through the middle MS Valley region. Lee cyclone initially over the southern High Plains will deepen within exit region of the upper jet as it develops northeast through the middle MS Valley by Tuesday evening. Trailing cold front will advance east and southeast through the central and southern Plains and MS Valley. By the end of the period the front should extend from a surface low over upper Great lakes southwest through LA and the TX coastal area. The boundary layer over the northwestern Gulf is in the process of modifying with latest observations showing dewpoints already in the upper 60s F. Positive theta-e advection promoted by southerly low-level winds will persist through Tuesday contributing to surface dewpoints near 70 F as far north as southern AR with upper 50s F into central MO. Widespread clouds should limit diabatic heating in warm sector, but MLCAPE should approach 1000 J/kg over the lower MS Valley. Farther north from eastern KS into MO the development of steeper lapse rates with colder air aloft (-14 to -16 C at 500 mb) will contribute to marginal MLCAPE with 500-800 J/kg possible within a more shallow convective layer. Two primary zones of surface based thunderstorm development are possible Tuesday afternoon and evening, including along the warm conveyor belt from northern LA into AR, western MS and TN, and farther north within zone of stronger pre-frontal forcing ahead of the cold front from eastern KS into MO and western IL. Broken bands of storms including potential for a few supercells and bowing segments will be possible in both of these regimes where vertical shear profiles will be more than adequate for organized structures with sizeable 0-1 km hodographs and 50+ kt effective bulk shear. Primary limiting factor for higher severe probabilities is the expected marginal thermodynamic environment. Nevertheless, at least isolated damaging wind and a couple tornadoes will be possible with the stronger storms. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 5% - Slight Wind: 15% - Slight Hail: 5% - Marginal

Have to see further model runs but right now CIPS and the Euro would suggest some strong storms into the warm sector in the long range towards the end of next weekend

Not much comparison with the IO this year with last,it did have a slight burst around the 26th as the map i'm showing from last year,but this IO is going to seemingly be stronger than normal into most of Dec.Last year the MJO was just getting into the WH and Africa towards the end of Nov,we had our first hard freeze or to say it got cold here ,21 on Nov 28

Slight warming,other than 1.2 every other region is above 0.5

There has been some good rises in the SST's in the NEPac recently,just what the EPS is showing in it's 10 day forecast you should see the PDO uptick and not down

That is not a -PDO look right now

pdo.eps

See what the visualization maps show when they update.But this looks like it could be the strongest +IOD on record,per JAMSTEC

JAMSTEC isn't backing down on the cold,it's been showing cold since the Sept update

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/elnino/outlook.html

Have to wait and see what the thermocline looks like after this KW passes.Sure looks like after the IO weakens into the first part of Dec the MJO and/or another WWB could be headed towards the IDL,you still have to look at right now where the warmer waters are right now into the subsurface which are more right now east of the IDL,really don't see how anyone right now could say this is more west/central based Nino pattern and not east..IMHO

Waiting on Jamstec to update, the last couple updates it's been cold in the east,should happen anytime soon.The IOD looks to stenghten some what in upcoming but looks to slowly weaken into the 3rd week of Nov as the monsoonal flow is getting into the Sothern Hemispehere slowly seemingly

MJO is fixing to creep along the westen IO once again as the IOD stenghtens once again around Mid Nov, have to see what the Kelvin does and what kind of upwelling comes with iinto 3.4 and 3,this seems likely more of a chance to be more east based and not west,upcoming.

Yeahh,could see a nice storm upcoming with the SOI.Have to wait and see how it plays out

Not a whole lot of change from the last update,you have your cold and warm,gonna be tough to get a Nina into winter with what the subsurface looks like right now.Not really sure what the GEM and Nasa is looking at into winter

NMME

Have to wait and see what these look like the next week or two with a KW moving across the IDL,3 could take a big spike upwards