jaxjagman

Rotation with the tornado headed towards Spring Hill which is being shown

Tornado by Orlinda,really don't see rotation with this

Some rotation showing up into Kentucky and some weaker between Hohenwald and Centerville into Tn,finally seeing some storms though

Don't see nothing rotating,we're partly cloudy now with the sun out,Storm looks more depressive as we lost Okeke with a torn ACL that will need surgery.Such a freak non-contact injury

National Weather Service Nashville TN 250 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2019 .DISCUSSION... Showers and storms have already fired up to the west along the MS and OH River Valleys, and models have that line of convection continuing across the mid state from mid afternoon through the evening hours. A strong upper level trough will progress eastward today, and drag a strong cold front through the area late this afternoon and evening. Consensus between the models shows decent instability, with MLCAPE values in the 400-1000 J/Kg range, and 0-6km deep layer shear around 50 to 60 knots. 0-1km shear is moderately strong as well, with values around 20 to 30 knots. Sounding analysis shows strong low level curvature in the hodographs, which would not only support rotating updrafts but even support some isolated tornado potential as well. 0-1km and 0-3km helicity values are also strong as expected with great low level curvature in the hodographs. With the approaching cold front providing the lift to keep convection ongoing through the area, and with the instability/shear environment in place, the main threat with any strong to severe thunderstorms would be damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes. Mid level lapse rates do briefly support some hail potential as well, and would be more likely should any isolated cells develop ahead of the main line of convection. After the front passes through the area from west to east during the evening, severe potential will fall off rapidly as cold air settles in near the surface and decreases surface based instability.

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2019 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH/TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible through 10 PM CDT across portions of Mississippi, Tennessee, Kentucky, and Alabama. Expected hazards include isolated to scattered damaging winds, large hail, and a couple tornadoes. ...Discussion... Instability has been slow to develop across the risk area, due to widespread cloud cover limiting heating, and dewpoints running a bit lower than most model forecasts. Still, the overall forecast appears reasonable, in terms of risk level and areal extent. Therefore, aside from a few tweaks to the thunder line, no substantial changes to the outlook are needed at this time, with isolated severe risk expected to evolve over the next 1-2 hours. ..Goss.. 03/30/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2019/ ...MS/TN/KY/AL... Primary changes are to shift wind probabilities north/east across KY, and increase/expand tornado/hail probabilities. These changes result in a net expansion of the Slight and Marginal Risks. A shortwave trough near Kansas City will move east across the Midwest while amplification of a separate trough occurs upstream over the Upper Great Lakes region through tonight. Surface wave over far southern IL will deepen as it approaches the Lower Great Lakes. An attendant stout cold front will push southeast likely passing a line from Columbus, OH to Lake Charles by 00Z. Upper 50s to lower 60s surface dew points will be common ahead of the front from the Mid-South southward where moderate boundary-layer heating in cloud breaks will drive MLCAPE values to 500-1000 J/kg. An increasingly narrow/more marginal moisture plume will exist farther north and eventually be occluded by the impinging cold front. Forcing for ascent will be focused in a band near the front, stronger north than south, which suggests predominately linear/cluster mode north and a mix of discrete cells/clusters south as storms mature towards late afternoon. Deep-layer vertical shear will be sufficient for splitting supercells with relatively long hodographs, and moderate low-level hodograph curvature. The greatest combined probabilities should exist surrounding the TN/MS/AL border region where all hazards are possible but large hail may be the primary threat given the remnant elevated mixed layer and potential dominance of left-mover supercells as suggested by most HREF members. Isolated to scattered damaging winds will be the primary concern with northern extent. The severe threat will wane after sunset and should cease by late evening.

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2019 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MS...NORTHWEST AL AND PARTS OF CENTRAL TN... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across a portion of the lower Mississippi, Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. Damaging wind should be the primary threat, though hail also is possible. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will deepen and shift eastward across the Midwest today. A cold front extending from northern IN southwestward into north TX will shift eastward through the period, extending from the Mid-Atlantic to the central Gulf Coast by Sunday morning. Elevated convection will be ongoing this morning on the cool side of the frontal boundary in isentropic ascent from eastern OK into southern IN. Further south, an elevated mixed layer from TX into the Lower MS Valley vicinity will limit convection for most of the morning across the Deep South to central KY. Modest boundary layer moisture with dewpoints from the upper 50s to lower 60s F will extend from the lower MS Valley toward the TN Valley, with low to mid-50s F northward toward the lower OH Valley vicinity. The EML is expected to erode by mid-to-late afternoon as stronger forcing along the front encroaches on better warm sector environment. Strong to severe storms are possible along the front from the afternoon into the evening, with hail and strong wind gusts being the main concern. ...Lower MS Valley to Middle TN... Temperatures are expected to warm into the upper 60s F north to mid 70s F south. This will lead to mixing of modest boundary layer moisture and only weak destabilization (MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg) forecast. Convection is expected to develop as increasing ascent along the front aids in erosion of the weak EML. Higher cloud bases (LCLs around 2-3 kft) resulting from boundary layer mixing will aid in development of some strong, possibly damaging, wind gusts as low level flow increases to 35+ kt around 2-4 kft. Nearly unidirectional vertical shear also will favor linear/bowing line segments, though some weak directional shear from south-central TN into central MS could result in some rotating structures in strongest storms. This could further enhance wind damage potential via mesovortex processes. Midlevel lapse rates around 7-7.5 C/km also are expected to support severe hail in stronger updrafts. Tornado potential appears low at this time given poor quality boundary layer moisture and lack of stronger low level directional shear. ...Western/Central KY Vicinity... Boundary layer moisture will be even more meager further north, and 250-500 J/kg MLCAPE is forecast. However, stronger forcing along the front should still aid in development of some semi-organized linear structures. Where pockets of stronger heating can occur, 40-50 kt winds around 1.5 kft could aid in strong wind gusts and modest midlevel lapse rates around 6.5-7.0 C/km may support some small hail in stronger updrafts. Overall threat is expected to remain marginal in the absence of better low level moisture and stronger destabilization.

East Asia looks active the next several days.The jet extension as the MJO passes into/through the PAC should keep us into a more wet pattern until it breaks down.So there still looks to be systems tomorrow,week one and another in wk.2 of April.After this there would be uncertain into the longer range where the MJO is.The GEPS and GEFS shows the pineapple express (troughs)stopping through East Asia into wk 2 of April

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 PM CDT Fri Mar 29 2019 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI...TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday across a portion of the lower Mississippi, Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. Isolated damaging wind should be the primary threat. ...Lower Mississippi, Tennessee and Ohio Valleys... Shortwave trough now moving through the central Rockies will continue into the central Plains early Saturday, before reaching the middle MS Valley and western portions of the TN and OH Valleys late Saturday afternoon and evening. In response to this feature, a surface low will develop over the middle MS Valley along a front and continue northeast into the OH Valley. Trailing cold front will move southeast through the lower MS and TN Valley regions during the afternoon into the evening. A corridor of modified continental polar air with upper 50s to near 60 F dewpoints will advect through the pre-frontal warm sector beneath modest mid-level lapse rates. This in conjunction with modest diabatic warming of the surface layer will contribute to marginal instability with MLCAPE from near 500 J/kg over southern portions of the OH Valley to 1000 J/kg over the lower MS Valley. Current indications are that a remnant mid-level capping inversion will probably limit thunderstorm development in warm sector. However, forcing within frontal zone should be sufficient to initiate storms as it intercepts the destabilizing boundary layer. Wind profiles with 40-50 kt 0-6 km shear will support potential for organized structures within the line including bowing segments and possibly a few embedded rotating updrafts. Given potential limiting factors imposed by an expected overall marginal thermodynamic environment, will maintain marginal risk category for this outlook, but a slight risk might be needed in day 1 updates.

Tomorrow's storm doesn't look to be as +titled as what's been shown.Better instability especially towards the SW portion of the Valley.Wouldn't surprise me to at least see this area upgraded to a slight risk the next update.SREF now has a 15% tornado risk in areas west of I-65.

Looks more like the East Asia Rule, ridge off of Japan and a Mid Atlantic/NE Region ridge,if it were to teleconnect right,it's a wet pattern in the Valley/SE.You'd probably see HP around Bermuda into Florida,which would have a chance of tropical genesis into the GOM during this time frame.

Not a whole lot showing.After the WWB showing up around the the end of the month,nothing exciting right now after this.The MJO signal looks even more murky after it hits Africa upcoming

Back in 2015 we saw a monster DWKW in which was around this time frame that led into a Super Nino into the winter months.This has nothing to do with a forecast,just bringing back memories

KW passed through where the warmer thermocline is being shown which brought warmer temps to the surface.MJO even though it shows weak signals should pass through this region upcoming.

You want the MJO to have strong signals coming off Africa and into the IO and beyond.Similar to what shows,least right now.You're also in a +GWO/AAM,So you take this out of a forecast,think Jeff mentioned this above.It still seems possible this could be a crap season with the ENSO.I voted 1.2k to 1.3k but i can see this going below..IMHO.It only takes one big storm to make up a deficit,but will it happen?

Looks like a chance of thunderstorms,not really exciting tho from a weak system Sunday into Monday.GFS has even backed down this afternoon with any wind/ hail. Next system for the Valley should be towards the end of the month still and the next should be into week one of April Beyond this we should see what happens with the MJO.The Euro now shows the MJO going now into phase 6 as it has been seeing destructive interference from the ENSO,though weak signals into the COD.So far it still looks like the MJO will be going into phase 7& 8 into the first of April.The Valley shortly after this time frame is starting to get/or is into peak severe season.So all eyes should be watching how amped the MJO gets into the IO and if it stays strong.

Similar look from what the Euro seasonals show to what the RRWT shows through spring.What would look to be HP into the GOA and also HP off the Mid-Atlantic into the Carolina's.-PNA.

Euro and GFS don't agree with each other,whats new, into the end of next weekend into the first part of the week after.Euro brings the LP basically through Tn while the GFS shows the system into the lower OV.Even if the GFS is right it looks more wind and hail. We seem to be close to avg. with tornadoes so far.Ironically the third best year was 2010 which was coming off of a strong Nino.I'm not really sure how much the tropics had to do with this.There looks to have been two tropical storms in 2010.Bonnie crossed Florida as a TS but weakened as it went into MS/LA as a depression.TS Richard went into Texas.But,there was no impact from a hurricane that year https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tornado_outbreak_of_April_22–25,_2010

It would be nice looking into next spring.With valcano and the low solar cycle into next winter good luck with analogs.

MJO is into the the Maritime but weak signals.The problem with the Euro is with the tropical system(convection) as it moves the MJO back into the IO.GEFS looks more right to me as it looks to go into phase 4,5 and 6 and potentially into West.Hem./Africa towards the end of the month. Today there is a trough going through Korea which could give us some thunderstorms into next weekend.The next more bigger potential system right now looks more towards the end of the month,with a trough coming off Mongolia this Wednesday then down into Korea which builds a ridge over Japan.If things teleconnect right this could be a potential good severe.

Jamstec is updating,this would be"O-N-D" what it shows on this update, more neutral (negative) ENSO into winter

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society 14 March 2019 ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory Synopsis: Weak El Nino conditions are likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2019 (~80% chance) and summer (~60% chance). El Niño conditions strengthened during February 2019, as above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) increased across the equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1] and the associated atmospheric anomalies became increasingly well-defined. The SST index values in the Niño3, Niño3.4 and Niño4 regions all increased during February, with the latest weekly values near +1°C in each region [Fig. 2]. The anomalous upper-ocean heat content (averaged across 180°-100°W) increased appreciably during February [Fig. 3], due to an increase in above-average temperatures at depth in association with a downwelling equatorial oceanic Kelvin wave [Fig. 4]. Enhanced equatorial convection prevailed near the Date Line, while suppressed convection was observed over Indonesia [Fig. 5]. Low-level wind anomalies were westerly in the central Pacific Ocean, while upper-level wind anomalies were mostly westerly over the far western and far eastern Pacific. The equatorial and traditional Southern Oscillation Index values were both negative (-1.4 standard deviations). Overall, these features are consistent with weak El Niño conditions. The majority of models in the IRI/CPC plume predict a Niño 3.4 index of +0.5°C or greater through the Northern Hemisphere early autumn 2019 [Fig. 6]. Given the recent downwelling Kelvin wave, and the increase in both the SSTs and subsurface ocean temperatures, most forecasters expect positive SST anomalies to persist across the central and eastern Pacific for at least the next several months. During that time, forecasters predict the SST anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region to remain between +0.5°C and +1.0°C, indicating weak El Niño conditions. However, because forecasts made during spring tend to be less accurate, the predicted chance that El Niño will persist beyond summer is currently about 50%. In summary, weak El Niño conditions are likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2019 (~80% chance) and summer (~60% chance); click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period. This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts are also updated monthly in the Forecast Forum of CPCs Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 11 April 2019.

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2019 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN INDIANA...WESTERN OHIO...CENTRAL KENTUCKY...MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND NORTHERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely from portions of the Southeast U.S. into the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible along with large hail. ...Synopsis... An upper-level low over Iowa this morning will gradually evolve into an open wave as it lifts northeast across the Great Lakes today, while a trailing portion of the trough extends southwest into the central Plains. A deep (983 mb) surface low beneath the upper low will lift northeast as a trailing cold front moves rapidly across the TN/OH Valley region and the lower MS Valley. Collectively, these surface and upper-level features will result in a broad area of favorable vertical wind shear for severe storms. ...Southeast U.S. through Ohio Valley and Great Lakes... An expansive area of showers and thunderstorms associated with warm/moist advection within the warm sector was in progress at 13Z, and the effects of ongoing/early day precipitation casts some uncertainty on the details regarding severe potential today and tonight. In general, ongoing precipitation should weaken or lift northeast of the risk area by midday, with additional thunderstorm development in advance of the cold front by afternoon. Low-level moisture remains a limiting factor, with lower/mid 50s surface dew points expected as far north as OH/southeast Lower Michigan, and mid 60s/upper across the southeast states. Substantial cloud cover combined with modest mid-level lapse rates will temper instability, with MLCAPE ranging from 1000+ J/kg over the Southeast States, where more diabatic heating is possible and higher dewpoints will reside, to around 300-500 J/kg farther north into the OH Valley and southern Great Lakes. The impressive low/mid-level wind fields will result in deep-layer shear averaging 50 kts across the southeast to in excess of 80 kts across the OH Valley/Great Lakes, with low-level (0-1 km) SRH in excess of 300 m2/s2. Thunderstorms should redevelop or intensify in advance of the cold front this afternoon as large-scale ascent within the left exit region of a 100-kt jet streak approaches the OH/TN Valley region. Farther south, forcing becomes a bit more nebulous however a more favorable thermodynamic environment with lower CINH will be in place. Most CAM guidance maintains discrete or semi discrete storms initially, with a transition to a more linear structure across northern portions of the risk area with time due to stronger large-scale forcing. Primary storm modes for storms that can persist within the strong shear environment will be supercells and bowing segments, with a risk for damaging winds, tornadoes, and large hail. Should a corridor of stronger heating/greater instability develop, confidence would increase regarding introduction of a significant tornado risk area given the very favorable background environment. This may be needed in later outlooks as the effects of ongoing precipitation is assessed. ..Bunting/Mosier.. 03/14/2019

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2019 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from a portion of the Southeast U.S. into the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes. Damaging wind and a few tornadoes will be possible along with some hail. ...Synopsis... A very strong upper jet will rotate through the base of a potent synoptic upper trough and into the middle MS Valley, Ohio Valley and upper Great Lakes. Surface low within the exit region of this jet will develop northeastward and occlude over WI this afternoon. The trailing cold front will stretch from a surface low in IA early in the day southward through the lower MS Valley. This front will advance east reaching the lower Great Lakes southwest into the middle Gulf coast by the end of this period. ...Southeast U.S. through Ohio Valley and Great Lakes... Initial band of convection developing along warm conveyor belt from the TN Valley into the OH Valley will shift northeast and weaken early Thursday. However, ageostropic forcing accompanying an upstream jet exit region is already spreading through the Southern Plains, contributing to thunderstorms development along the front over northeast TX. This zone of ascent will continue to spread northeast during the early part of the day, and most models develop a secondary band of showers and thunderstorms over the middle MS Valley that shifts into the OH Valley by mid day. The timing and evolution of this early convection and areas of clouds complicate the forecast to some degree. Nevertheless, a corridor of mid-upper 50s dewpoints will advect north into the OH Valley along a strong low-level jet, with mid-upper 60s farther south across the Southeast States. MLCAPE should range from 1000+ J/kg over the Southeast States, where more diabatic heating is possible and higher dewpoints will reside, to around 500 J/kg farther north into the OH Valley and southern Great Lakes. Current indications are that additional thunderstorms will gradually intensify along and just ahead of the progressive front from the OH Valley southward into the TN Valley from late morning into the afternoon. The stronger forcing will exist along and north of the upper jet exit region over the OH Valley where instability will be more limited, while farther south weaker forcing will exist, but a destabilizing boundary layer and low-level convergence should be sufficient to initiate storms. Wind profiles will be very favorable for organized severe storms with 50+ kt effective bulk shear and 300-500 m2/s2 0-1 km storm relative helicity. Both discrete supercells and line segments are possible with damaging wind and a few tornadoes the main threats, mainly from late morning through early evening. ..Dial/Gleason.. 03/14/2019