jaxjagman
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Everything posted by jaxjagman
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Spring/Summer 2019 medium to long range discussion.
jaxjagman replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Nothing but a suck pattern upcoming,ridge even looks stronger from a 588dm to a 591 dm tonight,,argggg.We should have a good system though into the 1st week of June,it should kick the ridge off to the east,there is nothing dirty about it in the mean time -
Spring/Summer 2019 medium to long range discussion.
jaxjagman replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
This pattern seems to be more ENSO driven.Most analogs would show the Valley to be more into a dirty ridge with plenty of QPF'S as the MJO comes off phase 7, with lag time.Surely don't look like it.The MJO is fixing to really slow down by the looks before it gets into the IO and into the IO so we'll see what happens later on -
Spring/Summer 2019 medium to long range discussion.
jaxjagman replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Yeah i'm with you,i don't have a great feeling about this summer.Even the MJO where it sits at right now we shouldn't be looking at any SER -
Spring/Summer 2019 medium to long range discussion.
jaxjagman replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
If we don't see any rain upcoming the next couple days we probably wont see much of anything until the week after next when the models are showing a trough going through East Asia in 3 to 4 days.The Euro has a ridge centered into the Valley around the latter part of next weekend maybe into the following week -
Waters have cooled towards the surface mainly into regions 3.But there still seems to be a decent WWB which should or could warm those surface temps back up upcoming
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Jamstec shows Nino not lasting but a couple more months and basically neutral through the first part of winter.It shows BN for the 2m's for D-J-F for the Valley,more of a front loaded winter i'd imagine.There is alot of spread from it's ensembles,so i'd use this with caution The waters are getting cooler down into the thermocline,especially into region 3
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Spring/Summer 2019 medium to long range discussion.
jaxjagman replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Back into the earlier century sunspots were more short lived it seems.They generally seemed to last no longer than a couple years at low min.As we seemed to get into the late 2000's sunspots min have seemed to last longer than the past,maybe the models are wrong most certainlywith the upcoming one,but is this a trend we are seeing? -
Spring/Summer 2019 medium to long range discussion.
jaxjagman replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Low solar cycle though is low is diving down this winter and more into next winter,surprised though it's lasting as long as it's showing,suspect it's not going to be right -
Picked my son up from college Thursday morning.When i got close to the Tn/Al line i saw my first accident in Tn before the state line.As i went trough into N/ Al it was like a war zone.I saw cars flipped on their roofs,on their side,etc.etc,multiple accidents and some real bad looking ones.I wasn't going to stop and detour but there was some good storms that went through
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Spring/Summer 2019 medium to long range discussion.
jaxjagman replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
NMME's basically look like a neutral though positive ENSO into O-N-D.One odd ball would be GOES-5,starting a potential Nina into fall,so you know this would be an "AN",2M look.But as always you should be skeptical in long range forecast of seasonals,sure you think the same way.Plus this would be more fall than winter East Asia had a trough go through a day or two ago,i'd think there would be a system coming through potentially effecting the Valley past the mid month even tho the models don't really show it right now,we'll see. The MJO possibly get into the IO possibly towards the end of the month,though this looks even conflicting -
Sure don't look as good today,glad i didn't start a thread.Best chance of severe storms would seem to be Thursday right now
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Be interesting if the Euro is right into next weekend. Next Saturday the trough goes negative tilt with a potent shortwave coming through the Tn Valley,this would enhance an impressive LLJ if it were true
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This period still looks good,still some timing differences along with some potential VBV and other junk as well.We'll probably need a short term severe thread upcoming, still some timing differences but all seems like right now we could be dealing with all severe modes upcoming,starting around mid week possibly into next weekend.
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This date back in 2002 there was an F3 tornado go through Rutherford and Cannon,TN(counties).This was one of two F3's that came through Middle Tn that said year.In Nov. another F3 went through Cumberland, county that claimed four lives with that storm
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CIPS shows some potential severe storms around the middle of next week,mainly hail and wind.LL/Shear looks weak with some sad looking hodos right now per GFS, Believe there will be a better system as the models continue to show a trough going through S/Korea,so maybe we'll see some better storms around the 8th give or take like the GFS is showing,right now.
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Kudos to Nashville for pulling off an amazing NFL draft.This not only pumped money into Nashville it put revenue in the whole state as well with tourism,etc..etc.Putting over 200k people into the streets Thursday even with showers(luckily not thunder) was an amazing feat.
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Seasonal models to me are just for discussion ,you more than likely will see changes until a couple months out.But even the tri-monthlies from the NMME's the skill level is still not that fantastic.Just look at "JFM" this year at the 2m's and look at the OBS top right
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Analogs are hard to figure out much less back into 1933-34 winter.This was a different time era you could say just as well.1933-1934 was basically in a moderate Nina.The oceans down in the depth into the thermocline right now would most certainly disagree with this into next winter.If anything this unless some massive DWKW comes along this looks to me a more neutral ENSO.Was this year in 1933-34 with a SSWE ?Not sure.Though you could make a case possibly next winter as the low solar peaks out upcoming, with a potential more Nina,but Ninas generally don't play nice in the Valley during winter.
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Enso regions have been more or less flat lined the past several days with maybe the exception of region 3 per tidbits,suspect we'll start to see a change upcoming as there looks to be an active KW starting up east of the IDL around 90E where there is a Rossby Wave on going.Should see warming get pulled up to the surface in region 4 upcoming
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MJO is moving but slowly by the looks.Even though the RMM'S shows it going into the COD,it should be getting into the Maritime upcoming .We don't see the same pattern back into late winter with the decent WWB's..The SST'S are still warm and any KW that has come along has been to weak to have much if any influence on this,though you can certainly see cooler waters further down into the thermocline it will still take awhile to mix those warmer waters out closer to the surface. These systems coming through East Asia look weak,and also more ridging into China and Korea,probably more MJO.Euro keeps wanting to build an Omega into the Bering Sea long range.It's not very exciting right now the next several days
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Jamstec,looks more SERish right now for next winter.(-)neutral ENSO
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Nino has been weakening the past few weeks,still looks fairly warm down to around 100m into the thermocline
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CIPS shows the best tornado risk in the SW portion of the Valley,Thursday.Not very many good analogs with this system, for the Valley anyways.
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https://www.facebook.com/tom.hensley.31/videos/2371479396218563/
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The MJO looks like it's going to show face upcoming into the IO but then potentially go hide back into the COD around the last week of April with some potential ENSO destructive interference it seems.The SOI around the 9-12th of April dropped around 40 points from a more Nina to a Nino pattern.Looks to me we should potentially see a decent system into the first week of May coming off East Asia the last week of April,how teleconnections work out is another thing.
