jaxjagman

The OLR shows the KW into Asia making it into 3.4 and 3,this should downwell the warmer temps closer to the surface, this is where your warmer SST's are showing right now into the thermocline east of the IDL,into the 2nd week of August and Mid month.Looks to be a more significant KW(MJO) starting to develop into the IO next week or shortly after,then towards the end of the month into 3.4 potentially.This could change most certaintly.We also could be seeing some potential tropical genesis into Florida/GOM,east coast with a possible KW being shown right now towards the end of the month http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/

Downwelling Kelvin Wave right now into region 3 with into the thermocline you see some cooling and west of that you see some upwelling with warmer waters getting into the surface in 3.4 and even 3 as well.This is much like what some of the seasonals are showing for a potential Modoki look into fall severe season,but we'll see

Euro is slightly different today for us in Mid Tn. from yesterday this time.Monday looks more scattered with weak wind shear but there is a weak shortwave trough coming through..Into the late evening into early morning Tuesday the LLShear starts to pick up.Kinda question the capes the Euro shows with the CAMS,Tuesday.But anyways the LL shear is showing 20 kts into the early afternoon into the early evening here,with the 850mb winds increasing to around 35kts around late afternoon,with another shortwave trough coming though.There would be some decent rains Tuesday afternoon into early evening here at least,if it's right of course.If the CAMS get better we'll have more severe chance.

Nashville is going with the Euro.Euro has a shortwave trough coming through the Mid Valley,late night,early morning Tuesday.Wind shear looks weakish right now but at least should be enough for a poor mans severe chance with just thunderstorms,showalter is around -4,in the Mid Valley.

Kinda Modoki look into fall by Jamstec,we haven't had a good fall severe for some time.

The Euro would have done great with this system if it wouldn't have crapped out at the last minute.For several runs before it showed a "LID" in place over Mid Tn. and the strongest storms over east of I-65

Jamstec the last update shows a more weak/moderate Nino,don't really look Modoki in winter and like the IMME it peaks into winter then falls off.Would make a interesting winter though as it looks even colder this last update.

Latest IMME shows a more basin wide.Seasonals keep trending away from a Modoki in winter.but to be honest the IMME peaks in Dec and falls off in Jan,will we would even achieve a actual Nino on the tri-monthlies?Maybe the IMME is to cool or maybe its picking up on something

Severe fall the models seems to be getting away from any Modoki,more crap look

SOI took a big dip recently the last couple days.Asia is more or less showing the HP into Korea getting shifted more into China upcoming .Should be a warmup into the first of August and potentially a nice system into the 2nd week of August.Also potential of a CCKW into wk 2 of August,watch the GOM

Euro got slightly better into the weekend,around Sunday/Monday.GFS even shows some capes now.Not a great severe look but it's still 7 days out. Euro this afternoon shows a shortwave trough going through the Tn Valley during this time,instabilities still look weak

7/4/04 http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/Event.php?reg=MV&fhr=F036&rundt=2018071912&dt=2004070412

Perfect example of why more money need to be spent on American modeling.Yesterday CANSips and even SHARPpy showed analogs of 7//4/2004,though this was more wind and hail.I almost posted a pic of it,now i wish i did

You guys in the East have done quite well this summer,rain,severe,etc.etc.We didn't even get a drop of rain yesterday.That's the life of the Valley,someone is going to get screwed any type of season..lol. The Euro actually did well for you guys with this system and it showed this for several runs but for some reason it wigged out at the last minute and showed a more severe in the Mid Valley. Long range models show a more neutral/positive tilted trough around next weekend.With a cold front,timing issues.But instabilities looks weak.The Euro would seem to maybe bring a marginal risk if that .If the Euro were to be right,right now there would seem to be some short waves rotating underneath to cause some more isolated severe threat Longer range could get interesting though.In East Asia there looks to be several tropical systems, typhoons on the maps upcoming the next few days,can we get something to re-curve?.Looks pretty active ,right now in that part of the world.So any long range the models shows will probably struggle some what. Then looking into August the Euro and GEFS wants to kill the MJO,from the Euro aspect and it's biased nature into phase 6 it typically gets finicky.Into the first part of August the MJO seems to be possibly getting into the GOM, signs of KW into the GOM as well right now

See if it last.still some rotation headed towards Decatur

Going S of Spring City

Yeah i'm disappointed,all i wanted was a light show instead have temps of 85 at 10pm and dp's in the mid 70's..lol

Looks like the rotation died again but some 2" hail marker

headed towards Spring City

Some rotation again my last scan headed towards Spring City

Looks like it's starting to lose it's punch,there was a 3" hail marker earlier from the cell

Tornado watch for the Eastern Valley

Models still don't get along but the NAM seemed to join hands somewhat with the Euro bringing a MCS east of Nashville in the evening.Both the CAMS look the way.The WRF still shows multi cluster supercells until early morning sometimes. I just want to see a light show

Besides the brief respite from the muggy air, the other story of this forecast package revolves around the intense upper level low that will develop in the Great Plains tonight and push into the Great Lakes region Friday. As it does, areas from the mid- Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley will be squarely in a northwesterly flow aloft. Models continue to show a pre-frontal MCS (though being depicted to arrive earlier in the day Friday now in both the Euro and GFS) and a surface low developing to our west Friday evening. While the MCS could be troublesome enough, both the GFS and NAM are off the charts regarding the deep layer shear being generated by this surface low. What was 40-50 kts of 0-6 km shear is now 60 kts and in the 00Z to 03Z Saturday time frame (Friday evening), low level SRH values bounce up to about 300 m2/s2. Instability values are also sky-high due to the southerly influx of surface moisture. The first thing that comes to mind in the northwesterly flow aloft is a Friday evening derecho. Obviously, a scenario like this carries with it damaging straight line winds, heavy rains (PW values are running about 2 inches) and yes, the potential for July tornadoes. I am going to add this Friday severe weather threat into the Hazardous Weather Outlook. Some decent shear for this time of year,much better than it was showing yesterday https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=OHX&issuedby=OHX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

Models still show a chance of some strong storms towards the end of the work week into the Valley.Took some soundings into the Mid Valley for Friday.The Euro is for BNA and the GFS is slightly S of BNA.All the models today show the Upper level trough more Southward than usual in the summer time.Instabilities right now look pretty decent for some strong storms upcoming.Who ever gets storms it should be like the SPC mentioned as there is a capping inversion into the evening hours,so storms will die off into the early evening,right now anyways Nashville disco Extended outlook...Rain chances will creep back into the forecast on Thursday as another upper level trough moves southeastward through the Midwest. Chances will increase further on Friday as the trough approaches TN and moist southerly flow returns at lower levels. The pattern for late next week and next weekend is pretty interesting as extended models morph the trough into a significant closed low over Michigan. This set up leaves Middle TN in a period of significant northwest flow aloft...and probably another cold front that could arrive Saturday. There is much uncertainty in a Day 6-7 forecast, but don`t be surprised if we see some strong storms in this pattern...given the moisture, a cold front and unusually strong flow aloft proving unseasonably strong wind shear.