jaxjagman

IRI ENSO Forecast CPC/IRI ENSO Update Published: Februrary 08, 2018 El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion issued jointly by the Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory Synopsis: A transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral is most likely during the Northern Hemisphere spring (~55% chance of ENSO-neutral during the March-May season). During January 2018, La Niña was evident in the pattern of below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1). The latest weekly index values were close to -1.0°C in the Niño-1+2, Niño-3, and Niño-3.4 regions, while the western-most Niño-4 region was -0.5°C (Fig. 2). While negative anomalies were maintained near the surface, the sub-surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean returned to near average during the last month (Fig. 3). This was due to the eastward propagation of above-average temperatures in association with a downwelling equatorial oceanic Kelvin wave, which undercut the below-average temperatures near the surface (Fig. 4). The atmospheric conditions over the tropical Pacific Ocean also reflected La Niña, with suppressed convection near and east of the International Date Line and enhanced convection around Indonesia (Fig. 5). Also, the low-level trade winds remained stronger than average over the western and central Pacific, while upper-level winds were anomalously westerly. Overall, the ocean and atmosphere system remained consistent with La Niña. Most models in the IRI/CPC plume predict La Niña will decay and return to ENSO-Neutral during the Northern Hemisphere spring 2018 (Fig. 6). The forecast consensus also favors a transition during the spring with a continuation of ENSO-neutral conditions thereafter. In summary, a transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral is most likely during the Northern Hemisphere spring (~55% chance of ENSO-neutral during the March-May season) (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period). La Niña is anticipated to continue affecting temperature and precipitation across the United States during the next few months (the 3-month seasonal temperature and precipitation outlooks will be updated on Thursday February 15th). The outlooks generally favor above-average temperatures and below-median precipitation across the southern tier of the United States, and below-average temperatures and above-median precipitation across the northern tier of the United States This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA’s National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts are also updated monthly in the Forecast Forum section of CPC’s Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 8 March 2018. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: [email protected]. Climate Prediction Center National Centers for Environmental Prediction NOAA/National Weather Service College Park, MD 20740 CPC/IRI Early-Month Official ENSO Forecast Probabilities Season La Niña Neutral El Niño JFM 2018 87% 13% 0% FMA 2018 60% 40% 0% MAM 2018 43% 54% 3% AMJ 2018 32% 61% 7% MJJ 2018 27% 56% 17% JJA 2018 25% 54% 21% JAS 2018 25% 50% 25% ASO 2018 26% 46% 28% SON 2018 27% 40% 33%

Severe does take a drop Nino vs Nina.,Carver is right,last year around this time into March the models were showing a potential moderate to strong Nino and what did we end up with,a Nina..lol

Didn't know where to post this at,ENSO,Severe or winter ?But i'll post it here since it seems to have more severe relevance 3-4 week outlook by CPC don't have much confidence..They seem though to be going with the Euro,but either way http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ Now going further into the severe season the Euro Monthly is going into the COD and staying there,but it's support is everywhere. Now since talking severe,take away the CFS forecast in the long range we see enhanced convection into the IO into the 2nd week of March. Then to look into the extended for the ENSO,you see this what Eric Webb said.This would fit the timing of the MJO through into March as mentioned above

https://newsroom.niu.edu/2018/01/29/researchers-find-pathway-to-give-advanced-notice-for-hailstorms/

Posted this on the severe thread but i'll post it here as well,latest NMME

Some warmer waters getting to the surface not by a whole but into the thermocline it's building out west

Today's ENSO update and the updated ONI.Surprised it hit -1.0 for NDJ.So if it's classified a Nina it will be a moderate Nina not weak.

Today marks the anniversary of the Feb 5-6 Outbreak in 2008 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Super_Tuesday_tornado_outbreak

The MJO before the severe outbreak in 2009 showed the MJO getting into the IO(PHASE1) around ten days before.But the evolution of it compared to this MJO is entirely different

SOI Today 2018 29 1008.88 1001.10 14.94 2018 30 1009.65 1003.00 9.62 2018 31 1009.46 1004.90 -0.23 2018 32 1009.08 1006.65 -11.10 2018 33 1007.15 1006.30 -18.68 2018 34 1004.90 1006.25 -29.25

Amy Butler mentioned 1999 and 2009 on her twitter for the SSWE.The ONI is somewhat similar,right now anyways to 2009.Plus Jeff,is calling for an active season made me go search some,this is no forecast In 1999 this long lasting strong Nina event that lasted well over a year and i couldn't find much of anything on severe weather events on Wiki Now, 2009 was quite different.This shows Nina falling off in FMA.Then a strong Nino started to form in JJA 1998 2.2 1.9 1.4 1.0 0.5 -0.1 -0.8 -1.1 -1.3 -1.4 -1.5 -1.6 1999 -1.5 -1.3 -1.1 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.1 -1.1 -1.2 -1.3 -1.5 -1.7 Year DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ 2000 -1.7 -1.4 -1.1 -0.8 -0.7 -0.6 -0.6 -0.5 -0.5 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 2001 -0.7 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 2002 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.1 2003 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.0 -0.3 -0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 2004 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 2005 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.6 -0.8 2006 -0.8 -0.7 -0.5 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.9 2007 0.7 0.3 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.8 -1.1 -1.4 -1.5 -1.6 2008 -1.6 -1.4 -1.2 -0.9 -0.8 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.6 -0.7 2009 -0.8 -0.7 -0.5 -0.2 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.6 Year DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ 2010 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.4 -0.1 -0.6 -1.0 -1.4 -1.6 -1.7 -1.7 -1.6 The drought monitor pictured on( pic.1) shows similarities to 2009 and what could POSSIBLY be,insert from 2009 is THROUGH Feb,now if you see the the CPC 3-4 outlook(PIC2). https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/drought/200902#NatOverview Much of the country received below-average precipitation during the month, resulting in the eighth driest February for the contiguous United States. The areas with the driest anomaliesincluded the coastal Northeast to mid-Atlantic states, parts of the Southeast and southern Plains, and parts of the Rockies to Pacific Northwest. February was drier than normal across the southern and eastern portions of Puerto Rico, with the year-to-date drier than normal across thesoutheast. Most of the stations in Hawaii reported below-normal precipitation in February, resulting in little change to the drought areas. Beneficial rains in December improved the 3-month precipitation totals, but the last 12 months were generally dry. February was wet across much of Alaska, but dry along parts of the southern coast. The precipitation pattern for the last three months and last 12 months was mixed. Only a few areas in Alaska had below-average snowpack as of the end of February.By the end of February, the core drought areas included: south central Texas, where extreme to exceptional drought was entrenched; parts of the southeastern U.S., with moderate to extreme drought; portions of the northwestern Great Lakes/Upper Mississippi Valley, where moderate to severe drought lingered; parts of Nevada and California, with moderate to extreme drought; and Hawaii, where severe to extreme drought continued across the central and eastern islands. For the last week in February, according to USDM statistics, moderate to severe drought affected 10 percent of the Midwest; moderate to extreme drought affected 41 percent of the Southeast, 27 percent of the West, and 47 percent of Hawaii; and moderate to exceptional drought affected 43 percent of the South. In 2009, this was an active severe season(pic3) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tornadoes_of_2009 We also during this year the had the tornado outbreak of April 9-11 where parts of the Valley was under a High Risk Area(Pic4) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tornado_outbreak_of_April_9–11,_2009

Passing of the KW was causing up-welling recently east of the IDL in the thermocline showing colder waters mixing in and further east shows down-welling where warmer waters are mixing in the thermocline on the Pentad.Today's ENSO shows Nina holding rather strong with all regions with the exception of region 4 in a moderate Nina state,per Tropical Tidbits

SOI is back into Nino state 2018 14 1013.64 1007.75 6.04 2018 15 1013.52 1006.35 12.06 2018 16 1012.84 1004.60 17.11 2018 17 1013.11 1003.65 22.85 2018 18 1013.63 1005.20 18.00 2018 19 1013.25 1005.55 14.56 2018 20 1012.99 1004.90 16.40 2018 21 1011.50 1003.50 15.97 2018 22 1010.88 1001.85 20.83 2018 23 1011.36 1001.30 25.68 2018 24 1009.86 1000.95 20.26 2018 25 1009.43 1000.05 22.48 2018 26 1008.48 999.95 18.47 2018 27 1008.52 1000.45 16.30 2018 28 1008.51 1001.35 12.02 2018 29 1008.88 1001.10 14.94 2018 30 1009.65 1003.00 9.62 2018 31 1009.46 1004.90 -0.23 2018 32 1009.08 1006.65 -11.10

The SOI finally hit the negative mark,still neutral 2018 15 1013.52 1006.35 12.06 2018 16 1012.84 1004.60 17.11 2018 17 1013.11 1003.65 22.85 2018 18 1013.63 1005.20 18.00 2018 19 1013.25 1005.55 14.56 2018 20 1012.99 1004.90 16.40 2018 21 1011.50 1003.50 15.97 2018 22 1010.88 1001.85 20.83 2018 23 1011.36 1001.30 25.68 2018 24 1009.86 1000.95 20.26 2018 25 1009.43 1000.05 22.48 2018 26 1008.48 999.95 18.47 2018 27 1008.52 1000.45 16.30 2018 28 1008.51 1001.35 12.02 2018 29 1008.88 1001.10 14.94 2018 30 1009.65 1003.00 9.62 2018 31 1009.46 1004.90 -0.23

La Niña likely past its peak as Pacific sea surface temperatures warm A weak La Niña continues in the Pacific Ocean, but may have peaked in recent weeks. Sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific have warmed slightly since late December, with most models now forecasting that La Niña will end in the southern autumn. Indicators of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) continue to reflect La Niña. Sea surface temperatures show a weak La Niña pattern, with the coolest waters concentrated in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Likewise, atmospheric indicators such as trade winds and cloudiness show clear La Niña characteristics. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is also at La Niña levels, though has fluctuated during the summer season due to the passage of tropical weather systems. In order for 2017–18 to be classed as a La Niña year, thresholds need to be exceeded for at least three months. Five of the eight climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggest this event is likely to last through the southern summer, and decay in the early southern autumn of 2018. With indicators hovering near thresholds since December, it remains to be seen if 2017–18 will be classed as an official La Niña year.

Today's,the 29th

DS 2018 16 1012.84 1004.60 17.11 2018 17 1013.11 1003.65 22.85 2018 18 1013.63 1005.20 18.00 2018 19 1013.25 1005.55 14.56 2018 20 1012.99 1004.90 16.40 2018 21 1011.50 1003.50 15.97 2018 22 1010.88 1001.85 20.83 2018 23 1011.36 1001.30 25.68 2018 24 1009.86 1000.95 20.26 2018 25 1009.43 1000.05 22.48 2018 26 1008.48 999.95 18.47 2018 27 1008.52 1000.45 16.30 2018 28 1008.51 1001.35 12.02 2018 29 1008.88 1001.10 14.94

SOI 2018 15 1013.52 1006.35 12.06 2018 16 1012.84 1004.60 17.11 2018 17 1013.11 1003.65 22.85 2018 18 1013.63 1005.20 18.00 2018 19 1013.25 1005.55 14.56 2018 20 1012.99 1004.90 16.40 2018 21 1011.50 1003.50 15.97 2018 22 1010.88 1001.85 20.83 2018 23 1011.36 1001.30 25.68 2018 24 1009.86 1000.95 20.26 2018 25 1009.43 1000.05 22.48 2018 26 1008.48 999.95 18.47 2018 27 1008.52 1000.45 16.30 2018 28 1008.51 1001.35 12.02

2018 15 1013.52 1006.35 12.06 2018 16 1012.84 1004.60 17.11 2018 17 1013.11 1003.65 22.85 2018 18 1013.63 1005.20 18.00 2018 19 1013.25 1005.55 14.56 2018 20 1012.99 1004.90 16.40 2018 21 1011.50 1003.50 15.97 2018 22 1010.88 1001.85 20.83 2018 23 1011.36 1001.30 25.68 2018 24 1009.86 1000.95 20.26 2018 25 1009.43 1000.05 22.48 2018 26 1008.48 999.95 18.47 2018 27 1008.52 1000.45 16.30 Daily SOI

Downwelling KW somewhere around 140W is putting a hurting on Nina.You can see it well on the Pentad.KW and the MJO passing through won't play nice with Nina.

SOI 2018 15 1013.52 1006.35 12.06 2018 16 1012.84 1004.60 17.11 2018 17 1013.11 1003.65 22.85 2018 18 1013.63 1005.20 18.00 2018 19 1013.25 1005.55 14.56 2018 20 1012.99 1004.90 16.40 2018 21 1011.50 1003.50 15.97 2018 22 1010.88 1001.85 20.83 2018 23 1011.36 1001.30 25.68 2018 24 1009.86 1000.95 20.26 2018 25 1009.43 1000.05 22.48 2018 26 1008.48 999.95 18.47

SOI today 2018 15 1013.52 1006.35 12.06 2018 16 1012.84 1004.60 17.11 2018 17 1013.11 1003.65 22.85 2018 18 1013.63 1005.20 18.00 2018 19 1013.25 1005.55 14.56 2018 20 1012.99 1004.90 16.40 2018 21 1011.50 1003.50 15.97 2018 22 1010.88 1001.85 20.83 2018 23 1011.36 1001.30 25.68 2018 24 1009.86 1000.95 20.26 Kelvin Wave coming up east of the IDL,looks better than yesterday.

CFS shows Nina hanging,no sign yet of Nino.We'll see SOI now the last couple of weeks has been the best Nina state since the on set 2018 11 1013.53 1007.10 8.58 2018 12 1013.34 1006.85 8.86 2018 13 1013.79 1008.15 4.86 2018 14 1013.64 1007.75 6.04 2018 15 1013.52 1006.35 12.06 2018 16 1012.84 1004.60 17.11 2018 17 1013.11 1003.65 22.85 2018 18 1013.63 1005.20 18.00 2018 19 1013.25 1005.55 14.56 2018 20 1012.99 1004.90 16.40 2018 21 1011.50 1003.50 15.97 2018 22 1010.88 1001.85 20.83 2018 23 1011.36 1001.30 25.68

Daily SOI 2018 15 1013.52 1006.35 12.06 2018 16 1012.84 1004.60 17.11 2018 17 1013.11 1003.65 22.85 2018 18 1013.63 1005.20 18.00 2018 19 1013.25 1005.55 14.56 2018 20 1012.99 1004.90 16.40 2018 21 1011.50 1003.50 15.97 2018 22 1010.88 1001.85 20.83