jaxjagman

Long range the MJO is being shown by the GEFS getting into phase 7 pretty amped up almost 2 sigma,Euro, comes out into 7 less amped.Either could be right as the Euro don't like phase 6 for some reason,we talked about this is the fall thread.The MJO though after getting into the IO starts to lose it's signal so maybe likely it goes back into the COD,still aways off so some uncertainty Long range models shows a typhoon into the Pacific.Euro yesterday had a upper low into North Korea with a still strong typhoon,today it has a typhoon much weaker and the low is into China.Not sure about the long range towards the 2nd week of April

Yeah, i agree, the GFS has no support from any model with the progression it's showing.But the Euro did shift east today.So we'll see.You'd think the models would have this figured out by now without the chaos.Either way by the Euro guidance the the heavy rains would be in the eastern valley as this afternoon's run shows,there is some KI and the showalter is not impressive ,very little instability for convective storms

The Euro and GFS are going back and forth.The Euro has been further south with the surface low and GFS North.They flip flopped today the GFS is further south and the Euro is coming trough Mid Tn

That would be some serious rain in a 48-hour period.Slow moving front with short waves riding it then a developing surface low comes up Mid Tn.Either way, there is a good chance someone in the Valley is going to see some healthy rains with flooding potential next week

That's some big hail for the south https://www.weather.gov/hun/event_03192018_hail

Nina hanging.There is a KW coming up the next couple of days east of the IDL

Cullman,Al https://www.facebook.com/billy.hulsey.7/videos/1572115492837427/

Headed towards Tallapoosa

That's ugly

Cell headed towards Albertville,looks like close to sisters

Cell headed nearAlbertville,nice rotation

Mesoscale Discussion 0144 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018 Areas affected...Northeast MS and Northwest AL Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 191618Z - 191745Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Large hail may accompany small thunderstorm cluster as it tracks across northeast MS into northwest AL over the next few hours. At this time do not anticipate issuing a short-term severe thunderstorm watch. DISCUSSION...Long-lived cluster of convection has tracked from southwest AR into northeast MS. Over the last hour or so it appears updraft strength with this activity has intensified along nose of low-level warm/moist advection. Hail algorithm supports this with MRMS data exhibiting sizes possibly in excess of 1.5". Given the overall air mass destabilization expected into northern AL over the next few hours it appears this activity could maintain its intensity along with primarily a hail threat. More intense supercells are expected to develop along the western/southern flank of this early-day convection. At that time more significant severe threat, including the possibility for tornadoes, should evolve. ..Darrow/Grams.. 03/19/2018

Didn't take long

You going out Jeff?

Mesoscale Discussion 0143 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0952 AM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018 Areas affected...north-central and northern AL...northwest GA...far southern middle TN Concerning...Outlook upgrade Valid 191452Z - 191615Z SUMMARY...An upgrade to a Moderate Risk categorical outlook (driven by a 15% significant tornado risk) is planned for the 1630Z outlook. DISCUSSION...It appears increasingly probable the risk for several tornadic supercells will traverse across northern portions of AL late this afternoon and through the early evening. Thunderstorm activity will be largely void across a large part of this area (north-central AL) prior to peak heating and a moderately unstable airmass is expected to develop by mid afternoon. The arrival of a speed max in the mid-levels will correspondingly lead to a marked strengthening in low-level flow and increasing hodograph size, which will be more favorable for supercells and low-level mesocyclones. Given these factors, confidence has increased such that a 15% significant tornado risk and the potential for longer lived supercells and damaging tornadoes will focus across north-central and northern AL, far southern middle TN beginning during the late afternoon/early evening, then moving east into northeast AL and far northwest GA later this evening.

The latest NAM takes the low into north Alabama,i really can't believe the GFS or Euro would be this far off in the short range,but could be.The GFS 0z went further north into Kentucky,how insane is this

Jamstec is hinting at a potential to a more neutral Nina pattern into fall,this would be good if it's right for next winter though. If it's right and holds on with the colder SST'S in region 3 into 1+2,also,it would be good for severe fall maybe

The latest SOI took a big rise and a big drop recently,have to keep watching the long range forecast into the1st week to the 2nd week of April Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 18 Mar 2018 1013.04 1006.25 12.83 7.15 1.58 17 Mar 2018 1012.51 1000.90 35.90 6.47 1.33 16 Mar 2018 1011.36 1006.15 5.26 4.81 0.71 15 Mar 2018 1011.20 1006.85 1.15 3.90 0.44 14 Mar 2018 1011.61 1007.00 2.39 3.15 0.29

Looking around Mid Tn around 3 tomorrow afternoon the GFS shows the the TT's around 58 and the Showalter -4 to -5 with steep lapse rates 8.0, bulk shear around 80kts Edit:This would be just west of Nashville

SREF has a small 45% marker in N/Alabama,it backed down away from Nashville as well as the last NAM while the GFS is now showing more instability to the Ky border

That's a cool pic Stove

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE...NORTHERN ALABAMA...AND FAR NORTHWEST GEORGIA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TENNESSEE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA... ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes, damaging wind and hail are expected across parts of Middle Tennessee, much of northern Alabama, and northwest Georgia. A strong tornado or two is possible during the late afternoon. Severe wind is also possible into northern Florida. ...Synopsis... A compact shortwave trough will move quickly from AR Monday morning to the TN Valley by 00Z Tuesday, with a slight deamplification. Wind profiles will increase throughout the day, with cooling aloft overspreading KY, TN, and northern AL/GA. At the surface, low pressure will move from OK across TN, with a cold front extending from Middle TN across central MS by 00Z Tuesday. Ahead of the front, dewpoints into the lower 60s F will reach as far north as TN, with mid 60s F over AL and GA. To the east, a warm front will lift across northern AL and GA during the day, allowing for destabilization. Severe thunderstorms are likely near the surface low and along the cold front, with the primary threat area from Middle TN into northern AL and northwest GA during the afternoon. ...Middle TN into northern AL and northwest GA... Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms may be ongoing Monday morning from TN into northern GA associated with warm advection near the warm front. This activity should lift north, allowing for heating farther upstream across western TN and MS. If early day storms are more widespread than expected, this could have an impact on the position of the main threat area later in the day. A minor capping inversion will be present around 850 mb according to forecast soundings. This will keep the warm sector free of additional precipitation contamination. Lapse rates aloft will steepen as the shortwave trough approaches, and wind profiles will strengthen creating a favorable setup for tornadic supercells. The area of strongest lift, shear and instability will exist over a relatively limited in area, but supercells that do occur will have significant tornado potential, along with large hail. The eastern extent will be limited by a wedge of cooler air from eastern TN across northern GA. Storm density will likely decrease across north central AL, farther away from the main area of lift, but a conditional threat of supercells capable of a tornado or two and large hail will exist. This threat may spread across eastern AL into western GA during the evening, as warmer air spreads east resulting in surface based instability. ...Fl Panhandle into southern GA... Although well removed from the shortwave trough to the north, a broad belt of strong flow aloft will encompass the Southeast, with deep-layer shear profiles favorable for severe storms. Mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will result in favorable thermodynamics to support strong to severe storms. Storms are expected to form over the FL Panhandle into northern FL by early to mid afternoon, spreading into southern GA. Although low-level shear is not particularly strong, it may be sufficient to support a tornado or two, with the primary risk being damaging winds. ..Jewell.. 03/18/2018

The last run of the GFS shows some better capes,even over 1k in Mid Tn Monday afternoon.If you want to believe the NAM it shows capes of around 3k and a PDS around Nashville