jaxjagman

I'm starting to get the feeling towards the new year into the first of the new year it could get bone chillin cold.Some hints the AO could really drop with troughs coming out of East Asia with even some hints of a possible strenghten +PNA,even the Euro is giving a hint at this in of the long range with a polar high sort of speaking,even if you look at the NAO,all signs are pointing at this possibly

GFS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: TRI LAT= 36.47 LON= -82.40 ELE= 1519 12Z DEC18 * - APPROXIMATED 2 M 850 1000 FZING SFC SFC 6 HR SNCVR TMP TMP 850 HGT WIND PCP QPF LIQ (C) (C) THK (FT) (KTS) TYPES (IN) (IN) FRI 12Z 18-DEC -4.1 -9.5 127 28 30002 0.09 FRI 18Z 18-DEC 2.8 -6.2 129 2039 03001 0.00 0.09 SAT 00Z 19-DEC -1.5 -0.2 130 9841 10003 0.00 0.09 SAT 06Z 19-DEC -1.9 2.0 130 9551 07002 0.00 0.09 SAT 12Z 19-DEC -2.1 1.5 130 8429 11001 0.00 0.09 SAT 18Z 19-DEC 7.7 1.9 132 8115 26002 0.00 0.06 SUN 00Z 20-DEC 1.7 2.8 132 7994 10002 0.00 0.06 SUN 06Z 20-DEC 0.8 1.5 131 6303 15002 0.00 0.06 SUN 12Z 20-DEC 0.7 -1.1 130 3004 09002 RA 0.05 0.14 SUN 18Z 20-DEC 4.1 1.5 132 5648 04001 RA 0.03 0.14 MON 00Z 21-DEC 3.4 1.8 132 5804 09001 RA 0.04 0.11 MON 06Z 21-DEC 3.6 -0.3 132 4590 24004 0.04 0.12 MON 12Z 21-DEC 2.1 -1.4 131 3532 25004 0.01 0.12 MON 18Z 21-DEC 4.6 -2.5 131 3448 25011 0.00 0.11 TUE 00Z 22-DEC 3.7 -1.6 132 4013 25010 RA 0.02 0.12 TUE 06Z 22-DEC 0.8 -4.1 130 3025 27006 0.03 0.12 TUE 12Z 22-DEC -1.1 -6.4 129 1247 25007 0.00 0.15 TUE 18Z 22-DEC 1.9 -4.7 129 2656 29004 0.00 0.14 WED 00Z 23-DEC -1.0 1.5 130 10363 08002 0.00 0.11 WED 06Z 23-DEC -1.9 6.4 131 10532 10003 0.00 0.11 WED 12Z 23-DEC -1.7 7.2 131 10411 12002 0.00 0.11 WED 18Z 23-DEC 9.1 7.1 133 10256 15005 0.00 0.11 THU 00Z 24-DEC 3.5 3.7 132 8206 15003 0.00 0.08 THU 06Z 24-DEC 2.4 1.7 132 6192 08002 RA 0.02 0.08 THU 12Z 24-DEC 2.9 0.1 131 4504 31001 RA 0.22 0.09 THU 18Z 24-DEC -4.1 -11.1 127 1 29010 SN 0.53 0.57 FRI 00Z 25-DEC -7.5 -11.8 126 0 29007 SN 0.06 0.66 FRI 06Z 25-DEC -11.0 -18.0 124 0 28009 SN 0.04 0.73 FRI 12Z 25-DEC -15.2 -20.9 122 0 26008 0.01 0.73

GFS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: CHA LAT= 35.03 LON= -85.20 ELE= 689 12Z DEC18 * - APPROXIMATED 2 M 850 1000 FZING SFC SFC 6 HR SNCVR TMP TMP 850 HGT WIND PCP QPF LIQ (C) (C) THK (FT) (KTS) TYPES (IN) (IN) FRI 12Z 18-DEC -2.9 -1.9 129 0 02003 0.00 FRI 18Z 18-DEC 6.6 1.0 131 10250 02004 0.00 0.00 SAT 00Z 19-DEC 0.9 3.4 131 10309 04003 0.00 0.00 SAT 06Z 19-DEC -0.6 3.8 131 10176 10001 0.00 0.00 SAT 12Z 19-DEC -1.2 2.7 131 9386 16002 0.00 0.00 SAT 18Z 19-DEC 8.5 3.3 132 8834 17007 0.00 0.00 SUN 00Z 20-DEC 4.0 3.3 132 7957 16003 0.00 0.00 SUN 06Z 20-DEC 3.6 -1.7 131 4022 16003 0.03 0.00 SUN 12Z 20-DEC 3.8 2.8 132 6607 17002 RA 0.06 0.00 SUN 18Z 20-DEC 6.9 2.6 133 6694 17003 0.08 0.00 MON 00Z 21-DEC 6.9 0.9 133 5159 18001 0.00 0.00 MON 06Z 21-DEC 4.1 0.9 132 5363 26002 0.01 0.00 MON 12Z 21-DEC 4.3 1.0 131 5951 23003 0.00 0.00 MON 18Z 21-DEC 8.6 2.7 132 6738 24007 0.00 0.00 TUE 00Z 22-DEC 6.3 0.5 133 5341 27006 0.00 0.00 TUE 06Z 22-DEC 4.0 -0.3 132 4663 27005 0.00 0.00 TUE 12Z 22-DEC 0.6 -0.3 130 9494 33003 0.00 0.00 TUE 18Z 22-DEC 8.3 2.5 131 11103 35004 0.00 0.00 WED 00Z 23-DEC 3.5 6.8 132 10954 10002 0.00 0.00 WED 06Z 23-DEC 1.4 9.4 133 10672 16002 0.00 0.00 WED 12Z 23-DEC 1.4 6.4 132 10389 17005 0.00 0.00 WED 18Z 23-DEC 9.6 4.3 132 9111 18009 0.00 0.00 THU 00Z 24-DEC 7.2 4.2 133 7885 16008 0.00 0.00 THU 06Z 24-DEC 6.2 1.9 132 6131 29003 RA 0.54 0.00 THU 12Z 24-DEC -1.6 -7.1 128 176 35006 SN 0.69 0.43 THU 18Z 24-DEC 0.6 -10.2 128 1124 30011 SN 0.03 0.51 FRI 00Z 25-DEC -5.6 -13.4 126 0 30007 0.01 0.49 FRI 06Z 25-DEC -9.9 -16.1 124 0 28004 0.00 0.54 FRI 12Z 25-DEC -11.6 -15.3 124 0 27004 0.00 0.54 GFS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: BNA LAT= 36.12 LON= -86.68 ELE= 591 12Z DEC18 * - APPROXIMATED 2 M 850 1000 FZING SFC SFC 6 HR SNCVR TMP TMP 850 HGT WIND PCP QPF LIQ (C) (C) THK (FT) (KTS) TYPES (IN) (IN) FRI 12Z 18-DEC -2.0 -1.8 129 19 16003 0.00 FRI 18Z 18-DEC 6.1 -0.2 130 9572 16003 0.00 0.00 SAT 00Z 19-DEC 2.4 2.1 132 9583 14004 0.00 0.00 SAT 06Z 19-DEC 1.0 2.3 132 8858 17005 0.00 0.00 SAT 12Z 19-DEC 0.8 2.6 132 7793 17007 0.00 0.00 SAT 18Z 19-DEC 7.9 3.5 132 7298 19010 0.00 0.00 SUN 00Z 20-DEC 6.0 3.4 132 7392 18007 RA 0.00 0.00 SUN 06Z 20-DEC 5.7 1.1 132 6033 17009 0.13 0.00 SUN 12Z 20-DEC 5.8 1.3 132 5492 18005 RA 0.17 0.00 SUN 18Z 20-DEC 9.2 1.2 132 5401 26004 RA 0.01 0.00 MON 00Z 21-DEC 6.0 1.3 132 5378 24002 0.00 0.00 MON 06Z 21-DEC 3.8 0.9 132 5166 23004 0.00 0.00 MON 12Z 21-DEC 2.6 1.3 132 5552 23005 0.00 0.00 MON 18Z 21-DEC 10.2 3.5 133 6404 25013 0.00 0.00 TUE 00Z 22-DEC 6.4 0.3 133 4858 24008 0.00 0.00 TUE 06Z 22-DEC 4.5 -3.4 131 3325 29007 0.00 0.00 TUE 12Z 22-DEC 1.5 -0.2 130 9956 31005 0.00 0.00 TUE 18Z 22-DEC 7.8 3.1 131 10510 02001 0.00 0.00 WED 00Z 23-DEC 4.2 7.7 133 10484 15004 0.00 0.00 WED 06Z 23-DEC 3.4 8.8 134 10559 18007 0.00 0.00 WED 12Z 23-DEC 4.7 8.2 133 9466 18011 0.00 0.00 WED 18Z 23-DEC 9.8 4.4 133 7882 19016 0.00 0.00 THU 00Z 24-DEC 7.7 2.2 133 6420 22009 RA 0.14 0.00 THU 06Z 24-DEC -0.7 -8.3 128 291 35009 SN 0.50 0.27 THU 12Z 24-DEC -3.8 -9.4 128 0 30003 0.01 0.34 THU 18Z 24-DEC -1.0 -13.2 127 221 29012 0.00 0.31 FRI 00Z 25-DEC -5.5 -15.8 125 0 30008 0.01 0.32 FRI 06Z 25-DEC -8.7 -16.6 124 0 29006 0.00 0.32 FRI 12Z 25-DEC -10.1 -16.0 123 0 28006 0.00 0.30 GFS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: TYS LAT= 35.82 LON= -83.98 ELE= 981 12Z DEC18 * - APPROXIMATED 2 M 850 1000 FZING SFC SFC 6 HR SNCVR TMP TMP 850 HGT WIND PCP QPF LIQ (C) (C) THK (FT) (KTS) TYPES (IN) (IN) FRI 12Z 18-DEC -2.6 -4.0 128 211 03002 0.00 FRI 18Z 18-DEC 4.7 -1.1 130 4510 05003 0.00 0.00 SAT 00Z 19-DEC 1.4 1.3 131 10188 07002 0.00 0.00 SAT 06Z 19-DEC 0.5 3.0 131 9367 11001 0.00 0.00 SAT 12Z 19-DEC -0.2 2.1 131 8675 15002 0.00 0.00 SAT 18Z 19-DEC 7.2 2.5 132 8381 23003 0.00 0.00 SUN 00Z 20-DEC 4.1 3.0 132 7730 16002 0.00 0.00 SUN 06Z 20-DEC 3.3 -2.0 131 3538 20004 RA 0.01 0.01 SUN 12Z 20-DEC 3.2 1.2 132 5703 10003 RA 0.05 0.03 SUN 18Z 20-DEC 5.0 2.4 132 6242 21001 RA 0.05 0.03 MON 00Z 21-DEC 5.0 1.3 132 5511 19001 RA 0.01 0.03 MON 06Z 21-DEC 4.7 -0.1 132 4671 26003 0.01 0.03 MON 12Z 21-DEC 4.4 -0.2 131 4335 24005 0.00 0.03 MON 18Z 21-DEC 7.5 0.3 132 5400 24009 0.00 0.03 TUE 00Z 22-DEC 6.0 -1.1 132 4265 26008 0.00 0.03 TUE 06Z 22-DEC 3.6 -1.5 131 3866 25007 0.00 0.03 TUE 12Z 22-DEC 0.8 -4.3 130 2072 24003 0.00 0.03 TUE 18Z 22-DEC 7.4 -0.6 131 10304 34001 0.00 0.03 WED 00Z 23-DEC 3.4 3.7 131 10747 08002 0.00 0.03 WED 06Z 23-DEC 1.6 8.5 132 10674 11002 0.00 0.03 WED 12Z 23-DEC 0.8 6.4 132 10481 16002 0.00 0.03 WED 18Z 23-DEC 9.5 4.7 133 9662 21003 0.00 0.01 THU 00Z 24-DEC 7.0 4.3 133 7775 17003 0.00 0.01 THU 06Z 24-DEC 5.2 2.6 132 6376 06002 RA 0.18 0.03 THU 12Z 24-DEC -1.4 -6.5 128 632 32004 SN 0.85 0.24 THU 18Z 24-DEC -1.9 -11.4 127 392 30003 SN 0.27 0.67 FRI 00Z 25-DEC -6.7 -13.7 126 0 29008 0.03 0.69 FRI 06Z 25-DEC -11.6 -17.6 124 0 25005 0.00 0.70 FRI 12Z 25-DEC -13.9 -19.5 123 0 23005 0.00 0.70 I just jinxed everyone..lol

Nothing that hasn't been talked about here National Weather Service Nashville TN 514 AM CST Fri Dec 18 2020 .UPDATE... FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION. && .DISCUSSION... Not bad weather expected today for mid December behind yesterdays passing upper trough. Upper ridge and SFC high will set up today allowing temps to recover into the mid and upper 40s most places. Plateau likely to hit the lower 40s. This ridge and SFC high will break down late tonight, and a upper trough will move into the MS river valley late Saturday. Moisture advection will begin early in the day and with vertical motion strengthening throughout the day, showers likely to breakout by midday west, then expand in coverage throughout the afternoon, and especially into the evening as the upper trough passes. At low-levels, we do not get really get a passing front/airmass change, thus temps will continue to moderate Saturday, and on Sun as well as pcpn moves out. The first part of next week will see temps above normal, as an upper ridge passes, and eventually weakens early Wednesday as our next system approaches. This system more potent than our Saturday system and is expected to bring more widespread rain to the mid-state Wednesday, and more so Wednesday night as a cold front/deep moisture axis passes. This system also packing some very cold air, of which we will likely see either mixed pcpn or all snow before ending Thursday in many areas. This system also bringing a secondary deep upper trough axis over the region on Friday, and while moisture will be limited, some flurries/light snow showers not out of the question.

Went positive tilt yesterday to more neutral tilt today,looks like that ridge it was showing yesterday is getting broke down sooner in the east,least that what it shows this afternoon

Control has a +ve tilted trough with a ridge in the east and a ridge to the west around Christmas,potential big rain maker if it were to be anywhere right for the Valley

Such a stinkin' waste with the AO with a crappie PNA

Man that is so close ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BNA LAT= 36.12 LON= -86.68 ELE= 591 12Z DEC12 2 M 850 1000 FZING SFC SFC 6 HR SNCVR TMP TMP 850 HGT WIND PCP QPF LIQ (C) (C) THK (FT) (KTS) TYPES (IN) (IN) SAT 12Z 12-DEC 13.4 8.0 136 8240 19011 SAT 18Z 12-DEC 15.9 8.1 136 9142 22008 SUN 00Z 13-DEC 11.5 5.9 135 9959 26005 0.01 SUN 06Z 13-DEC 6.0 5.1 133 9805 27002 0.00 SUN 12Z 13-DEC 2.7 5.9 132 9473 33003 0.00 SUN 18Z 13-DEC 11.1 5.5 133 9139 26002 0.00 MON 00Z 14-DEC 7.8 2.5 133 5817 36003 0.03 MON 06Z 14-DEC 5.1 0.8 131 6486 01006 1.02 MON 12Z 14-DEC 3.3 -1.0 130 1501 34008 0.56 MON 18Z 14-DEC 5.9 -0.4 130 5006 35006 0.00 TUE 00Z 15-DEC 2.5 -0.4 130 8922 35006 0.00

Thanks,it's been a rough time with my wife having cancer.Everything is going ok right now tho ,no set backs or stuff like that

Have to wait and see what teleconnections have in store,but right now this seems more severe than winter

Sure looks like we are headed back to a potential +TNI into spring,if the EURO seasonals are anywhere right 2016 -1.630 -1.802 -1.946 -1.978 -1.763 -1.441 -0.968 -0.508 -0.101 0.324 0.690 1.097 2017 1.447 1.465 1.268 0.592 -0.267 -1.150 -1.575 -1.925 -1.847 -1.735 -1.548 -1.264 2018 -1.134 -1.260 -1.320 -1.650 -1.978 -2.118 -2.089 -2.159 -1.979 -1.890 -1.734 -1.700 2019 -1.725 -1.774 -1.892 -2.226 -2.535 -2.750 -3.045 -3.344 -3.286 -3.001 -2.857 -2.549 2020 -2.208 -2.029 -1.811 -1.756 -1.891 -1.855 -1.720 -1.586 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.99 TNI

Nice trough going through East Asia which is being modeled around next Sunday which should effect us around the 21st give or take.Problem it seems lies within the teleconnections,fairly substantial spit within the NAO/AO

Live off Concord Rd,Bridgeton Park

Someone else from Brentwood,what part?

I swear this has typical strong NINA sig all over it,we get the early cold and we will bake around X-Mas onwards.Nice cold spell tho in the long range showing up. ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BNA LAT= 36.12 LON= -86.68 ELE= 591 00Z NOV29 2 M 2 M 2 M SFC SFC 6 HR FROZN TOTAL MXT MNT TMP DEW WIND QPF PCP CLOUD (F) (F) (F) (F) (KTS) (IN) (IN) (PCT) SUN 00Z 29-NOV 44.9 35.9 01005 72 SUN 06Z 29-NOV 45.0 37.4 39.4 34.2 05003 98 SUN 12Z 29-NOV 39.7 36.6 37.1 34.8 11003 0.00 0.00 99 SUN 18Z 29-NOV 56.2 37.0 56.5 43.3 18004 0.00 0.00 100 MON 00Z 30-NOV 57.6 50.5 50.4 50.0 35004 0.17 0.00 100 MON 06Z 30-NOV 50.4 41.9 41.8 41.5 34012 0.51 0.00 100 MON 12Z 30-NOV 41.8 36.5 38.9 38.4 31011 0.49 0.03 100 MON 18Z 30-NOV 39.0 35.5 35.7 24.6 30011 0.02 0.00 100 TUE 00Z 01-DEC 35.7 32.9 32.8 22.8 31009 0.02 0.02 94 TUE 06Z 01-DEC 32.9 28.7 28.6 19.1 30006 0.02 0.02 25 TUE 12Z 01-DEC 28.5 25.5 25.5 19.7 27006 0.00 0.00 2 TUE 18Z 01-DEC 36.3 24.9 36.4 19.0 28007 0.00 0.00 11 WED 00Z 02-DEC 38.7 31.6 31.4 20.5 27005 0.00 0.00 0 WED 06Z 02-DEC 31.5 26.0 25.9 19.8 27004 0.00 0.00 0 WED 12Z 02-DEC 27.4 24.7 25.0 21.3 24002 0.00 0.00 30 WED 18Z 02-DEC 44.7 24.4 45.0 25.7 30001 0.00 0.00 35 THU 00Z 03-DEC 46.8 36.6 36.1 29.8 10004 0.00 0.00 0 THU 06Z 03-DEC 36.1 27.8 27.9 23.7 15002 0.00 0.00 100 THU 12Z 03-DEC 30.5 27.4 28.4 24.4 11004 0.00 0.00 69 THU 18Z 03-DEC 50.7 28.4 51.0 29.3 17003 0.00 0.00 33 FRI 00Z 04-DEC 53.0 44.4 44.7 35.0 18004 0.01 0.00 95 FRI 06Z 04-DEC 46.5 43.0 43.3 40.9 20005 0.04 0.00 100 FRI 12Z 04-DEC 43.4 42.6 42.7 42.5 17002 0.20 0.00 100 FRI 18Z 04-DEC 44.8 42.7 44.8 43.9 24001 0.24 0.00 100 SAT 00Z 05-DEC 45.8 43.8 43.7 42.4 36003 0.02 0.00 98 SAT 06Z 05-DEC 43.7 39.9 39.8 36.8 35007 0.00 0.00 94 SAT 12Z 05-DEC 39.8 35.9 35.9 32.7 35007 0.00 0.00 86 SAT 18Z 05-DEC 45.8 34.7 46.0 30.4 33008 0.00 0.00 0 SUN 00Z 06-DEC 47.9 39.6 39.4 30.7 33006 0.00 0.00 0 SUN 06Z 06-DEC 39.4 32.7 32.4 29.8 30004 0.00 0.00 0 SUN 12Z 06-DEC 32.4 30.2 31.1 28.9 22004 0.00 0.00 0 SUN 18Z 06-DEC 50.9 31.1 51.1 34.1 28007 0.00 0.00 0 MON 00Z 07-DEC 52.8 43.4 43.3 34.1 27007 0.00 0.00 0 MON 06Z 07-DEC 43.3 40.3 40.2 33.3 32008 0.00 0.00 40 MON 12Z 07-DEC 40.2 34.5 34.5 23.0 32008 0.00 0.00 46 MON 18Z 07-DEC 37.9 33.5 37.9 19.3 33010 0.00 0.00 16 TUE 00Z 08-DEC 38.4 31.4 31.2 16.0 34006 0.00 0.00 0 TUE 06Z 08-DEC 31.2 25.4 25.3 17.7 33003 0.00 0.00 0 TUE 12Z 08-DEC 26.1 22.9 22.9 17.5 24003 0.00 0.00 0 TUE 18Z 08-DEC 37.4 22.8 37.6 15.2 19002 0.00 0.00 81 WED 00Z 09-DEC 38.3 32.8 33.4 20.2 16005 0.00 0.00 5

Sounds like you are waiting on the apocalypse,sorry couldn't resist,just playing..lol

Man look at the SSTS off the JAPAN coast,Sea of JAPAN and even Sea of OKHOTSK.Then you factor in the warmer than normal SST'S in he Gulf.Seems prime for a fun severe season,if you like severe.Of course this is only a model in Nov and we are talking April,but still.Troughs galore in the east with this.

NMME is showing a strong NINA now into winter.APEC is the same its last update a couple weeks ago.We seem to be already at that point right now with the last ENSO update coming in at +1.7 for the week,per CPC. It does not look like the IOD(DMI) is going to disappoint the ENSO.Every year the DMI reaches around +1.4 there has been always been a moderate to strong LaNina into the the following winter,since 1980

LOL... no doubt about that

Coldest the subsurface has been yet along with a standing wave west of the IDL and KW ongoing along the IDL,NINA looks pretty healthy .Its still cold in the east,not sure why some of these seasonal models want to kill it off so fast sure some of these models

Today is fall back,we lose a hour and models are a hour early,wish they would not change this crap and leave time alone

CFS shows a KW around the IDL today which gets into the GOM and Caribbean into the long range.GFS shows a strong tropical system and even the EURO shows a area of LP today in the GOM.Could get some tropical mischief upcoming.Where it goes and if anything does develop would seem to be a trough going through East Asia the next couple days

CFS has a fairly strong wind burst into the second week of Nov if it is to be believed right now,something to watch,Subsurface is really cool right now into 3.4.If you are a tropical person you might even watch the GOM and Atlantic as the MJO passes and possibly a KW into Nov.,but that is to far out right now

Guess its going to be a long college football season huh