jaxjagman

ENSO forecast: Observation shows that a weak La Niña is developing at present. The SINTEX-F predicts that the weak La Niña-like condition will persist in the latter half of this year. Indian Ocean forecast: Observation shows that the tropical Indian Ocean is warmer-than-normal at present. The ensemble meam suggests that the warmer condition will persist in autumn, then will return to a neutral-state from winter. However, there is a large uncertainty in the prediction as some of the members (specially, of the SINTEX-F2-3DVAR system) actually predict a weak negative IOD event in autumn. Regional forecast: On a seasonal scale, the SINTEX-F predicts that most part of the globe will experience a warmer-than-normal condition in boreal autumn, except for southwestern Australia, India, and some parts of northern Africa. In boreal winter, the model also predicts that most part of the globe will experience a warmer-than-normal condition, except for western Brazil, western Australia, India, and some parts of the Indochina Peninsula. As regards to the seasonally averaged rainfall in boreal autumn, a drier-than-normal condition is predicted for some parts of the South American Continent, southern Africa, West Africa, China, some parts of Europe. In contrast, most part of Northern America, Mexico, India, East Africa, Southeast Asia, Philippines, Indonesia, northern Europe, and northern Russia will experience a wetter-than-normal condition. In boreal winter, a wetter-than-normal condition is predicted for northwestern coastal area of Canada, a northern part of the South American Continent, northern Australia, western Europe, Philippines, eastern Indonesia, and Madagascar. In contrast, southern U.S.A., southern part of the South American Continent, central Africa, Spain, Portugal, western Indonesia, eastern China will experience a drier-than-normal condition. The model predicts most part of Japan will experience slightly warmer-than-normal condition in autumn as a seasonal average. In winter, most part of Japan will experience warmer- and drier-than-normal condition.

No coherent MJO signal upcoming, until it strenghtens we should be at risk for some sort of subtropical ridge if its dirty or not who knows.I mentioned this on the ENSO thread,the MJO should strenghten for a time being into the IO towards the end of the month,least thats what it is showing right now,this should be a break until the MJO moves more into the Eastern IO,if it actually does,least thats my thinking

CFS shows a Kelvin Wave moving across the IDL today,this should be into the Eastern Pac into Wk3 of July then possibly into the Caribbean/Western Atlantic towards the end of the month .Could possibly kick up some TG,something to watch anyways if you are into the tropics. Towards the end of the month, it looks like the westerlies are going to kick in the IO which will in case strenghten the MJO signal into the Western IO (PHASE1).This seemingly right now would/could kick up another KW,tho no signs quite yet.

Thats pretty impressive,it doesnt look like the MJO is going to leave the Western IO for several days,if it does at all

There has been some warming into 3.4,but this should be more from the Kelvin Wave that passed through recently,at least help aide it anyways.

Gotta love the heat island National Weather Service Nashville TN 157 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2020 .DISCUSSION... Mostly clear skies across Middle Tennessee with little to no shower/thunderstorm activity expected this afternoon and evening except for the plateau areas. After another dry day tomorrow, decent shower and thunderstorm chances (40-50%) are anticipated for Sunday. There is a marginal risk for severe weather, and with showers arriving in the morning hours for areas along the Tennessee River any development will need to be watched closely. the main threat will be gusty winds, so have a plan to quickly seek shelter on Sunday morning and afternoon if you are outside. We`ll just skip over Monday and Tuesday and get right to the extended forecast. Do you like summer heat and humidity boys and girls? Well if your birthday is next week and that`s what you`re wishing for, Happy Birthday from us here at the National Weather Service in Nashville! We all chipped in and got you a nice 594m ridge axis at 500mb over the state for Thursday and Friday, with 850mb temps warming to 20-22C as early as Wednesday. Surface dewpoints will be in the low 70s so expect Heat Index values to easily be 105 degrees, with some areas possibly approaching 110 degrees around Nashville and for areas along the Tennessee River. The ECMWF suggests the heat may stick around through the weekend, but the GFS hints at maybe some shower activity developing Friday and continuing through the weekend. We`ll see what happens then, but the heat and humidity is a guarantee for Wednesday through Friday.

Been some cooling into the subsurface east of the IDL.Some of the seasonals look like a stronger NINA other than the GFDL

Fairly impressivel.Control did a seemingly nice job in the long range possibly sniffing this pattern out upcoming.To give it some credit, there is a ridge the Euro shows into East Asia building into the mid week and a trough a few days later so this possibly will not be nothing more than a transient warm spell.But could be a good one

Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 426 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2020 Day 2 Valid 12Z Tue Jun 30 2020 - 12Z Wed Jul 01 2020 ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS...AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...2030 UTC Excessive Rainfall Outlook Discussion... Spaghetti plots from the GEFS and SREF point to the potential for rainfall amounts to exceed 3 inches from parts of Iowa into western Kentucky into eastern Tennessee...predominantly from ARW cores. The on-going Slight Risk was pretty well aligned in this corridor, so only changes were made to expand the western boundary based on antecedent conditions from the past week or so as well as anticipated rainfall amounts from today to the beginning of the Day 2 period. Also made some minor adjustments to the southern periphery based on latest model runs. These are fairly modest moves considering the run to run and model to model run consistency...but the numerical guidance tended to be in broad agreement with respect to the magnitude of instability and the amount of precipitable water available and the presence of the dynamics to help force and focus the activity. Not many changes elsewhere. Bann

I'm in Maryville right now,that was by far the best convective system i've seen in some time.

Thought that'd be a better sunset,the half moon was better

Its been sunny and hazy here,waiting on the sun to set.You guys east in the Mountains should be able to snap some good shots,please share if you get some good ones

Euro and Control today are hinting at a potential low which gets cut off somewhat or more slowly meanders around the Valley.But it's still to far off to trust, but there is a trough the next couple days which will slowly move through South Korea.Thus could be a potential odd summer time big rain maker upcoming with really nothing to kick it to fast.You can actually spot it pretty well using the CAG today ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: CHA LAT= 35.03 LON= -85.20 ELE= 689 12Z JUN26 6 HR 6 HR FROZN TOTAL SFC 2 M 1000 1000 QPF CVP PCP QPF PCP TMP 500 850 (IN) (IN) (IN) (IN) TYPES (C) THK THK FRI 12Z 26-JUN 21.4 572 140 FRI 18Z 26-JUN 0.04 25.9 573 140 SAT 00Z 27-JUN 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.05 24.1 574 140 SAT 06Z 27-JUN 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 20.1 573 140 SAT 12Z 27-JUN 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 20.9 570 140 SAT 18Z 27-JUN 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 27.1 572 141 SUN 00Z 28-JUN 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 24.8 573 141 SUN 06Z 28-JUN 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 21.9 573 141 SUN 12Z 28-JUN 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 22.4 572 140 SUN 18Z 28-JUN 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.06 29.6 574 142 MON 00Z 29-JUN 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.07 27.7 576 142 MON 06Z 29-JUN 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.07 23.3 576 141 MON 12Z 29-JUN 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.08 23.4 574 141 MON 18Z 29-JUN 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.08 31.4 577 142 TUE 00Z 30-JUN 0.03 0.03 0.00 0.11 27.1 577 142 TUE 06Z 30-JUN 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.12 23.8 576 142 TUE 12Z 30-JUN 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.12 24.2 575 141 TUE 18Z 30-JUN 0.12 0.11 0.00 0.23 28.9 575 142 WED 00Z 01-JUL 0.10 0.10 0.00 0.34 25.7 575 142 WED 06Z 01-JUL 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.34 23.1 574 141 WED 12Z 01-JUL 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.34 23.7 573 141 WED 18Z 01-JUL 0.17 0.16 0.00 0.51 26.5 574 141 THU 00Z 02-JUL 0.14 0.12 0.00 0.65 24.4 574 141 THU 06Z 02-JUL 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.66 21.8 574 141 THU 12Z 02-JUL 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.68 22.5 573 140 THU 18Z 02-JUL 0.08 0.07 0.00 0.75 27.9 575 141 FRI 00Z 03-JUL 0.21 0.18 0.00 0.96 24.4 576 141 FRI 06Z 03-JUL 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.96 21.3 575 141 FRI 12Z 03-JUL 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.96 22.1 575 140 FRI 18Z 03-JUL 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.98 29.2 577 142 SAT 00Z 04-JUL 0.06 0.03 0.00 1.04 26.0 578 142 SAT 06Z 04-JUL 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.04 22.0 577 141 SAT 12Z 04-JUL 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.05 23.2 575 141 SAT 18Z 04-JUL 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.05 30.4 577 142 SUN 00Z 05-JUL 0.01 0.01 0.00 1.06 27.2 576 142 SUN 06Z 05-JUL 0.01 0.01 0.00 1.07 23.9 574 141 SUN 12Z 05-JUL 0.07 0.00 0.00 1.14 21.0 572 140 SUN 18Z 05-JUL 0.51 0.03 0.00 1.65 22.3 572 140 MON 00Z 06-JUL 0.82 0.08 0.00 2.47 21.9 574 140 MON 06Z 06-JUL 1.38 0.22 0.00 3.85 21.4 575 140 MON 12Z 06-JUL 3.05 0.23 0.00 6.90 21.3 575 140

Been some warming down into the subsurface the past couple weeks along the IDL,even East of it

I'd have p'd in my pants if i saw a bear that close

Nice early afternoon convective storm,with much needed rain.We got close to a inch to 1.5" so far today

Probably wait and see if the timing is right.In East Asia the last day or two there has been a more Baiu-front where heights build into China and an ULL North of Japan and some sort of boundary in between which goes stationary for a time,these fronts can be big rain makers in East Asia,into the early summer

Euro switched out on recent long range runs.This afternoon it shows a trough in the east with shortwaves spinning along.The low level shear 30-35kts would be a potential drought buster for us into next weekend,not sure i'd trust it right now tho

Heh,let's hope they continue to be bad like you said.Even tho last year we broke the record for most 90 degree days in a year,i can't recall triple digits anytime,in which this look would certainly/possibly do this around Mid July

Probably should have been expected but parts of the Valley west of I-65 went into a more abnormal drought,looks like an unsettled period coming up.We had a decent cell come through yesterday but we need more South Drought continues to rapidly develop and intensify across most of Texas and Oklahoma, with patchy dryness beginning to develop farther east in western Tennessee and adjacent Mississippi. Central parts of the region, soaked by heavy rain associated with Tropical Storm Cristobal last week, remained free of moisture deficits. Only isolated parts of Tennessee saw any significant precipitation this week. Western Texas and eastern New Mexico received less than 0.5 inch the past couple of months, and most of this area recorded under an inch for the past 90 days. Farther east in central Oklahoma, higher normals allowed rainfall deficits of 2.5 to 4.5 inches accumulate over the past few weeks. As a result, moderate to severe drought expanded in many areas from central Oklahoma to the Texas/New Mexico border as far south as the Big Bend. Precipitation shortfalls are less acute and of shorter duration on the east side of the South Region, but conditions deteriorated enough to introduce D0 there.

We haven't gotten much rain here the past few weeks.Our yard was looking great a few weeks ago but now is getting brown patches

Seemingly as well if everything teleconnects there should be should be a Upper Level Ridge in the East towards the end of the month, but its still in the long range and could change.but todays Euro shows this in East China into Korea

It doesn't have great support right now ,but the KW looks much stronger on today's CFS .It hasn't been showing much of anything past the Eastern Pac but now it does into the 3rd week of June