jaxjagman
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Everything posted by jaxjagman
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Thanks,its going ok,ive been sick the last couple weeks,no COVID just feeling blah,scratchy throat,coughing, sneezing,what ever bug it is.hope i never get it again
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NMME is showing a Modoki moderate Nina in Jan
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CFS shows a robust Rossby Wave moving into the Easten Pac,i can see why the gyre's dont show much of anything right now other than into the Eastern Pac.
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Seems to doing well with even a more suppressed Kelvin Wave moving though
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Not very often into summer you see East Asia correlate very well,but right now it seems to showing this,if its right is another thing.Sure looks like the MJO is finally going to get out of the IO into the Maritime,it sure should be signs past the Mid of August we see more a SER,definite pattern change upcoming,sure hope we dont get into a flash drought
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EWB passing east of the IDL should potentially scatter the warmth in the east.Nina should start to take notice more soon
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Sure dont look very active with out much of any Kelvin Waves
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MJO could possibly get into the Maritime and more suppressed off the African coast,seems like anything the forms will be home brewed or the tropics will probably be dormant of any tropical genesis into the 2nd week of August and several days after
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Everything is pointing towards the MJO ,there is some hint into the 2nd week of August the MJO could creep into Maritime,been making me reluctant to believe the weeklies and feel they should be to warmer,towards the Mid of August
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Upper Level Low moving from the Yellow Sea today into more South Korea tomorrow,we should see some sort of trough towards the end of next week around the Valley.Should see some potential strong diurnal storms at least,least that's my thinking
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Looks to be a trough still going through East Asia around the mid week,this could give us a relief possibly towards the end of the month.least some lowering heights in the East but by the looks this won't be nothing but a brief reprieve as heights could build right back in,least thats how it looks today
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Lots of high clouds around here,i'm going to Maryville Wednesday,might take a trip into the mountains.It might be clearer tomorrow night tho around here if the models are right
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It was semi overcast/hazy here as well.We don't live in a great spot here,in NE Williamson Co.To the NW we catch the Nashville skyline.
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IMME into fall,its not far off from Jamstec's Oceans posted above ,its
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ENSO forecast: Observation shows that a weak La Niña is developing at present. The SINTEX-F predicts that the weak La Niña-like condition will persist in the latter half of this year. Indian Ocean forecast: Observation shows that the tropical Indian Ocean is warmer-than-normal at present. The ensemble meam suggests that the warmer condition will persist in autumn, then will return to a neutral-state from winter. However, there is a large uncertainty in the prediction as some of the members (specially, of the SINTEX-F2-3DVAR system) actually predict a weak negative IOD event in autumn. Regional forecast: On a seasonal scale, the SINTEX-F predicts that most part of the globe will experience a warmer-than-normal condition in boreal autumn, except for southwestern Australia, India, and some parts of northern Africa. In boreal winter, the model also predicts that most part of the globe will experience a warmer-than-normal condition, except for western Brazil, western Australia, India, and some parts of the Indochina Peninsula. As regards to the seasonally averaged rainfall in boreal autumn, a drier-than-normal condition is predicted for some parts of the South American Continent, southern Africa, West Africa, China, some parts of Europe. In contrast, most part of Northern America, Mexico, India, East Africa, Southeast Asia, Philippines, Indonesia, northern Europe, and northern Russia will experience a wetter-than-normal condition. In boreal winter, a wetter-than-normal condition is predicted for northwestern coastal area of Canada, a northern part of the South American Continent, northern Australia, western Europe, Philippines, eastern Indonesia, and Madagascar. In contrast, southern U.S.A., southern part of the South American Continent, central Africa, Spain, Portugal, western Indonesia, eastern China will experience a drier-than-normal condition. The model predicts most part of Japan will experience slightly warmer-than-normal condition in autumn as a seasonal average. In winter, most part of Japan will experience warmer- and drier-than-normal condition.
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No coherent MJO signal upcoming, until it strenghtens we should be at risk for some sort of subtropical ridge if its dirty or not who knows.I mentioned this on the ENSO thread,the MJO should strenghten for a time being into the IO towards the end of the month,least thats what it is showing right now,this should be a break until the MJO moves more into the Eastern IO,if it actually does,least thats my thinking
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CFS shows a Kelvin Wave moving across the IDL today,this should be into the Eastern Pac into Wk3 of July then possibly into the Caribbean/Western Atlantic towards the end of the month .Could possibly kick up some TG,something to watch anyways if you are into the tropics. Towards the end of the month, it looks like the westerlies are going to kick in the IO which will in case strenghten the MJO signal into the Western IO (PHASE1).This seemingly right now would/could kick up another KW,tho no signs quite yet.
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Thats pretty impressive,it doesnt look like the MJO is going to leave the Western IO for several days,if it does at all
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There has been some warming into 3.4,but this should be more from the Kelvin Wave that passed through recently,at least help aide it anyways.
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Gotta love the heat island National Weather Service Nashville TN 157 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2020 .DISCUSSION... Mostly clear skies across Middle Tennessee with little to no shower/thunderstorm activity expected this afternoon and evening except for the plateau areas. After another dry day tomorrow, decent shower and thunderstorm chances (40-50%) are anticipated for Sunday. There is a marginal risk for severe weather, and with showers arriving in the morning hours for areas along the Tennessee River any development will need to be watched closely. the main threat will be gusty winds, so have a plan to quickly seek shelter on Sunday morning and afternoon if you are outside. We`ll just skip over Monday and Tuesday and get right to the extended forecast. Do you like summer heat and humidity boys and girls? Well if your birthday is next week and that`s what you`re wishing for, Happy Birthday from us here at the National Weather Service in Nashville! We all chipped in and got you a nice 594m ridge axis at 500mb over the state for Thursday and Friday, with 850mb temps warming to 20-22C as early as Wednesday. Surface dewpoints will be in the low 70s so expect Heat Index values to easily be 105 degrees, with some areas possibly approaching 110 degrees around Nashville and for areas along the Tennessee River. The ECMWF suggests the heat may stick around through the weekend, but the GFS hints at maybe some shower activity developing Friday and continuing through the weekend. We`ll see what happens then, but the heat and humidity is a guarantee for Wednesday through Friday.
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Been some cooling into the subsurface east of the IDL.Some of the seasonals look like a stronger NINA other than the GFDL
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Fairly impressivel.Control did a seemingly nice job in the long range possibly sniffing this pattern out upcoming.To give it some credit, there is a ridge the Euro shows into East Asia building into the mid week and a trough a few days later so this possibly will not be nothing more than a transient warm spell.But could be a good one
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TN valley heavy rain/flooding week of whenever
jaxjagman replied to janetjanet998's topic in Tennessee Valley
Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 426 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2020 Day 2 Valid 12Z Tue Jun 30 2020 - 12Z Wed Jul 01 2020 ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS...AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...2030 UTC Excessive Rainfall Outlook Discussion... Spaghetti plots from the GEFS and SREF point to the potential for rainfall amounts to exceed 3 inches from parts of Iowa into western Kentucky into eastern Tennessee...predominantly from ARW cores. The on-going Slight Risk was pretty well aligned in this corridor, so only changes were made to expand the western boundary based on antecedent conditions from the past week or so as well as anticipated rainfall amounts from today to the beginning of the Day 2 period. Also made some minor adjustments to the southern periphery based on latest model runs. These are fairly modest moves considering the run to run and model to model run consistency...but the numerical guidance tended to be in broad agreement with respect to the magnitude of instability and the amount of precipitable water available and the presence of the dynamics to help force and focus the activity. Not many changes elsewhere. Bann -
I'm in Maryville right now,that was by far the best convective system i've seen in some time.
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Thought that'd be a better sunset,the half moon was better
