jaxjagman

There it is,the 3rd cell

Probably watch the cell behind the 2nd cell as well

2nd cell seems to dying,first cell seems to headed towards Travelers Rest right now

Looks like another cell could be on its heels to the west

Headed towards Pickens seemingly right now

News said it was,quick mesoscale.Those cells around that area had some clearing earlier

Thats what i get when i take my scan off OHX so quick

Stroms just dont have the umph when they show rotation,the best cell seems to be the cell possibly headed towards Rocky Top

This is what i was looking at as well.It's hard to find even PW's even getting to 1.1"

More than i thought..lol Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2020 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered, strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon across portions of the Tennessee Valley into the southern Appalachians. A few strong storms may also develop across south Florida. ...TN Valley/Southern Appalachians... Sharp mid-level speed max is forecast to eject across AR into northern AL by 26/00z. This feature is associated with a pronounced short-wave trough that should encourage strong-severe convection across the TN Valley during the afternoon. Latest model guidance continues to suggest a strongly diffluent high-level flow regime will develop across the TN Valley ahead of the short wave and a weak surface low is expected to track from the Boot Heel of MO toward central KY during the afternoon. Very cold mid-level temperatures will spread east, along/north of the cyclonic jet such that steep lapse rates will be common, especially as some boundary-layer warming is anticipated immediately ahead of the Pacific front. While moisture is seasonally low across the Gulf States into the TN Valley, 50s surface dew points should yield modest SBCAPE north of the jet where 500mb temperatures are forecast to be as cool as -18C at peak heating. Forecast soundings suggest surface parcels will reach convective temperature by 17-18z and isolated thunderstorms should initiate within exit region of aforementioned jet. Shear profiles favor supercells and hail may be the greatest threat with this activity; although, low-level shear appears adequate for some tornado potential. Robust convection should spread toward the southern Appalachians by evening where it will encounter a wedge front anchored east of the mountains. Some erosion of the cool boundary layer will be noted across SC into extreme western NC. For this reason have adjusted severe probabilities to account for destabilization in this region. Otherwise, air mass will struggle to recover across the southern Middle Atlantic during the overnight hours. Even so, sustained warm advection does warrant some threat for a few strong storms late.

You want that to clear out or fall apart,especially east of I-65

Think this might be the villain tomorrow,but we'll see

The Euro and GEFS are far apart in the upcoming days with the MJO.Believe ,possible what the GEFS sees is a Kelvin upcoming so it has destructive interference.Models keep showing this other than timing

If the NAM is right but could very well be over doing things there would some strong storms in the mid morning in Mid Tn as the LLJ kicks in,then spreads eastward,seems tho there could be some early junk,looks messy

Yes,starting today The Cumberland Trail opens from 7AM until sunset

I was thinking about going also but man those parks are gonna be packed

Short range models don't even agree with the synoptic for Sat,whats new Mid week, next week the Euro has a system that goes -ve tilt somewhere around the Cen/Plains.Something to watch anyways at this range. Longer range into May could be a Kelvin passing through,but thats to far out to believe and or timing

Hanks pretty damn brave,Oklahoma yesterday,but some great footage

Slightly different look on tonights runs so far

This was the strongest +IOD on record compared to 1994 and 1997,both those years following in winter 1995 and 1998 made it to a moderate Nina to strong Nina.Even in 2006 which is now the actual 4th most IOD event this went into a strong Nina and is the only IOD event that went into a more resurgent Nina in 2008.So seemingly this could be a more moderate Nina is not out of the question

It's going through Tn on this afternoons run.+ tilt,.looks kinda meh right now unless something changes.Also the Euro shows a potent shortwave around the Gulf Shores early Thursday.Some KI but the better Showalter and Theta is south

Yeah buddy

12Z Euro sped up,quite a bit.Sure it will change once again,pretty volatile pattern right now.

Have to wait and see what the first system does.But both the Euro and GFS is hinting at the trough will go -ve tilt somewhere .Euro looks more into the lower Ms/Valley but the GFS is further east around the Friday time frame.GFS seems to want to make the 2nd system the dominant storm tonight with even very little inversion.One of them is going to fail seemingly,the first storm or the next system into possibly next weekend