jaxjagman
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Everything posted by jaxjagman
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Seemingly there also looks to be a trough going through East Asia towards the end of the month,maybe something to watch as it could bring a CF toward the end of wk 1 of June in the east and also more trough in the NE,this could dampen out any TG expectations into the GOM
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There were a couple ensemble members of the GEFS 18Z which could lead into some TG into the GOM into June,to early to tell right now tho
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Depending on what the ENSO does right now ,seems possible we could be headed towards a +TNI next spring,which we haven't seen since 2017.Think we'll explore this to start another severe thread into winter,this one is getting long https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/4/044008/pdf
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That was a bad boy https://twitter.com/Fox4Weather/status/1264025552278769665/photo/1 https://twitter.com/ounwcm/status/1264566026227892224/photo/2
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Thanks I saw his post this morning https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1264525706215796736/photo/1
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Just food for thought,every single year the DMI dips below -0.8 there has always been some sort of a resurgent Nina the following winter.The most -ve was in Sept of 2016 where it hit -1.441.Some models show this potential especially the Euro
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GFS would have some potential for some TG into the GOM with the GYRE,Euro not as promising
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XFINITY GOT knocked out again thanks to a thunderstorm :(Thank goodness for Verizon2GO,its getting annoying tho
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CFS has been consistent with a Kelvin Wave and the MJO with it slowing down into the NH with the CHI posted above.This KW could spawn up some TG along the western flank if it's to be right into the first week of June,i'd keep watching along the Yucatan still upcoming
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KW moving across the IDL.There is some differences of how strong the KW will be.The MJO tho looks as if it will slow down as it get into the NH in a few days,should either way put a hit on subsurface east of the IDL
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Sorry to hear of the no trip,i know you look forward to this every year :( Its been a suck year so far for us here as well.Kids out of school(tho i think some kids might be happy about that..lol)No real graduation this year. My wife also is going through breast cancer and doing chemo right now,not a great time for this with the CV :( Just saying also,its never a good time for breast cancer either way.Praying we make it through this anyways
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Looks like NINA rang the door bell and someone let her in
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Tropical genesis is hard to predict without a storm,it's just a time frame to watch right now possibly
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3.4 is falling fast .The MJO by the Euro is going to get strong into P8 and with possible KW and RW towards the end of the month,this should continue to pound the cold subsurface to the surface east of the IDL.Not sure i agree with the new experimental JAMSTEC with the oceans into summer.If its right tho towards fall we would be looking at a -PDO and also the NA/Tripole would really cool down into into fall so you'd have a +NOA into winter more likely,maybe some help with the EPO but JAMSTEC looks like crap next winter right now,
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JAMSTEC isn't that excited with a Nina
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Yeah its a suck time to do anything
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Ninas knocking on the door
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Best chance of tropical genesis into the GOM would seemingly be more into June.Least today there could be a Kelvin Wave moving into by some models along with the CFS across the Yucatan,this certainly would be a time frame to watch,BUT 3-4 weeks out is beyond trustworthy right now
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Could get some good thunderstorms next weekend somewhere in the Valley, if the Euro is right as the boundary slips southward.Not very exciting looking right now but CIPS does show a risk as well.
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Upwelling seemingly has done a job.Long range models are hinting at another KW passing across the IDL after the Mid month .Could be some tropical genesis into the GOM afterwards towards June or just into if its correct
