jaxjagman

As expected with the passing EKW,1+2 is warming up again.Subsurface has warmed some by the looks west of the IDL,didnt post the last update but it seems they now do adjustments every 3 or 4 days without doing the time stamp

Interestingly, no (E)F5 tornadoes were recorded in phases 3, 4, or 5 during the study period. Cross-phase variability explained by the GWO is substantial, and has not been demonstrated to this magnitude by other known teleconnection indices [e.g., the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)]. A robust example is shown when analyzing (E)F1+ tornadoes during strong GWO events. During GWO phases 1 and 2, statistically significant positive tornado count and average tornado count per day anomalies are found. In contrast, phases 4 and 5 revealed negative counts and negative tornado count per day anomalies at the 95% confidence level (Fig. 2). Odd how there has never been a violent EF5 with this study,while in 3,4 and 5.The Wayne and Lawrence County EF5 happened in a LaNina year and the GWO was in phase 6

Right,i just posted this to show the similarity to where the GWO is in phase 2 from this paper,it does not mean we can't get severe weather in Tn

Meant the put the link up,here it is https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/144/2/mwr-d-15-0289.1.xml

GWO is in phase two today

Models keep showing a trough going through East Asia even into Korea next weekend,by far the best trough through that region it seems like in a couple months.PNA might be tilted more + but there also seems to be another EKW today getting into region 3 and a KW into NA into week 3 of March,seemingly around the 28th of March give or take might be our next shot of severe storms after this one upcoming right now

I'd be surprised if you dont see a slight risk upcoming,even with some timing differences the mid week system

Last four runs of the GFS,looks better today but still beyond it's belief time frame

Definite not seeing nothing consistent with the models

CFS is showing another EKW the next couple days getting into 1+2,the last one that went through a few days ago has warmed this region up pretty good recently.

Few more days before the upgrade to V16,unless something changes https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/scn_21-20_gfsv16.0_aaa_update.pdf

So what happens during a power outage?

Either CPC just forgot to change the date or a adjustment was made to the last update

I was playing with my new toy above. CFS looks active in the Pacific upcoming.Sure this will change some but the models will probably struggle with the upcoming pattern.GFS is already trying to hint at bulding another Sub-Tropical ridge into the GOM.But this time frame should be our best shot upcoming at some possible severe weather.

1.mp4

SPC today almost shows a basin wide moderate NINA,but the SOI is acting like this is a more ELNino the last few days,been awhile since it went negative,the SOI

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20210228 Fatality in Ga

Talk about a lucky young man https://wreg.com/news/child-shocked-by-power-line-in-nashville-while-playing-barefoot-in-rain/

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 15 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 810 PM EST Sun Feb 28 2021 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Far south-central Kentucky Middle Tennessee * Effective this Sunday evening from 810 PM until 1100 PM EST. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Cluster of strong to severe storms may produce damaging winds and a brief tornado before it weakens later this evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles north and south of a line from 80 miles west of Crossville TN to 20 miles northeast of Crossville TN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

Might have been a tornado,seeing reports of power poles snapped in half

Not sure,i just seen that tea cup hail

How bizarre,it was around this time last year when tonadoes struck

Tornado Watch TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 13 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 220 PM CST SUN FEB 28 2021 TORNADO WATCH 13 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CST FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS TNC005-017-021-023-033-037-039-043-045-047-053-055-069-071-075- 077-079-081-083-085-095-097-099-101-109-113-117-119-125-131-135- 147-157-161-165-167-181-183-187-010400- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0013.210228T2020Z-210301T0400Z/ TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON CARROLL CHEATHAM CHESTER CROCKETT DAVIDSON DECATUR DICKSON DYER FAYETTE GIBSON GILES HARDEMAN HARDIN HAYWOOD HENDERSON HENRY HICKMAN HOUSTON HUMPHREYS LAKE LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LEWIS MADISON MARSHALL MAURY MCNAIRY MONTGOMERY OBION PERRY ROBERTSON SHELBY STEWART SUMNER TIPTON WAYNE WEAKLEY WILLIAMSON $$ ATTN...WFO...LZK...OHX...MEG...LMK...PAH...

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 PM CST Sat Feb 27 2021 Valid 281200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are likely from parts of Texas into Middle Tennessee on Sunday. Damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes should be the main hazards, but some large hail may also occur. ...Synopsis... Several mid-level shortwave troughs are embedded within a larger trough across the central CONUS. A stronger shortwave will move through the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes through the day. A compact shortwave will develop into a closed low across the Southwest throughout the day while several weaker perturbations will move through moderate southwesterly flow extending from the Southern Plains to the Ohio Valley. At the surface, an area of low pressure will begin the day in Iowa before deepening as it moves northeastward into the Great Lakes. As this surface low strengthens, a cold front will sharpen and advance southeastward from the Midwest to the southern Plains. Numerous thunderstorms, some severe, are expected along and ahead of this cold front. ...Southern Plains to the Ohio Valley... A shortwave trough seen on Water Vapor across northern Mexico early this morning will move quickly northeastward through the morning. Weak ascent associated with this mid-level shortwave is expected to overspread a moist and unstable warm sector across north-central/northeast Texas and southeast Oklahoma this morning which will likely initiate scattered convection. Supercells are possible given moderate instability (1000-1500 J/kg), steep mid-level lapse rates (~7.5 C/km) and effective shear around 65 kts. All severe weather hazards will be possible with these early storms. This includes the potential for a tornado or two given the moderate low-level shear. Temperatures ahead of the cold front are expected to increase into the low 70s with dewpoints in the low to mid 60s from the southern Plains as far northeast as southwest Kentucky by mid afternoon. This should yield MLCAPE around 1000 to 1500 J/kg from the southern Plains northeastward to far southern Kentucky. This destabilization of the air mass, combined with the tightening low-level frontal circulation should support widespread storm development along the front by early to mid afternoon. Storms may initially struggle to become severe due to some warmer temperatures near 700mb and the propensity for storms to initially move to the cool side of the boundary and become elevated. However, through time, storms are expected to grow upscale into a forward propagating MCS. This line of storms will likely pose a threat for damaging winds given the strong low-level flow and a broad region of weak to moderate instability downstream. 00Z CAM guidance suggests the most robust linear segments may occur from northeast Arkansas into western Tennessee where height falls and cooling temperatures aloft may assist in stronger updraft development. Low level flow is expected to increase above 40 knots at 0.5 km in this region which will support a greater threat for severe wind and a favorable low-level shear profile for potentially a few tornadoes embedded within the line. By late evening, instability is expected to weaken substantially which will likely support the line weakening by the early overnight hours. ...South Texas... A few storms are expected to form late in the period (after 07Z) near the Edwards Plateau and move eastward. Moderate instability (1500 to 2000 J/kg) is expected in this region with steep mid-level lapse rates around 8 C/km. Supercells will be the likely storm mode given effective shear around 60 to 65 knots. Low level flow will remain quite weak and thus large hail will be the primary threat with this activity. ..Bentley/Darrow.. 02/28/2021