jaxjagman

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Sun May 03 2020 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI...NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...EXTREME SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...AND WESTERN KENTUCKY.... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and hail are expected today from the Ozarks eastward across western Kentucky and northwest Tennessee. Other strong to severe storms are possible farther east in Kentucky into the southern Delmarva, across the northern and central High Plains, and over a small portion of west-central Texas. ...Southern MO into western KY/TN... A fast-moving bow echo has developed across southern MO. This cluster of storms has produced many reports of damaging winds and hail this morning, and is tracking into a region where strong heating and substantial low-level moisture is present. This should help to maintain intensity through the day as storms track into parts of KY/TN. Therefore have added a small ENH risk for this threat. Refer to MCD #517 for further detail. ...Central KY/TN into WV and Mid-Atlantic region... Most 12z model guidance shows scattered afternoon convection forming along the surface boundary from central KY into northern WV as the upper trough approaches. This activity is likely to be less organized than the bowing structure farther west, due to weaker instability and rather weak low-level winds. Nevertheless, a few of the storms may pose a risk of locally damaging wind gusts and hail through the late afternoon and evening hours.

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 AM CDT Sun May 03 2020 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OZARKS AND TENNESSEE VALLEY TO CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the Ozarks eastward across Kentucky, Tennessee and toward the southern Delmarva today into this evening. Additional isolated severe storms are possible across the northern and central High Plains, and over a small portion of west-central Texas mainly late this afternoon and evening. ...Ozarks and Kentucky/Tennessee to the Southern Delmarva... Multiple east/southeastward-moving mid-level impulses will be influential today, roughly coincident with a south/southeastward-spreading cold front that will roughly extend west/southwest to east/northeast across these regions. A southwesterly low-level influx of moisture precedes the front, while a strong elevated-mixed-layer, as noted in 12Z regional observed soundings, puts the southern extent of the severe risk a bit into question across the Tennessee Valley/Mid-South. Related to a low-amplitude but amplifying mid-level shortwave trough and early-day warm/moist advection regime, a relatively well-organized cluster of currently elevated strong/severe thunderstorms is ongoing across southeast Kansas as of 13Z. While not well handled by short-term guidance, there may be enough ascent/mesoscale organization to allow a southeast continuation of some early day severe potential along the front, although a weakening low-level jet/abating warm advection could ultimately influence a weakening trend later this morning. Regardless, while the specific longevity of this stronger early-day convection is not certain, possible MCV augmentation and downstream differential heating should be sufficient to, at the very least, focus surface-based thunderstorm redevelopment into the afternoon near the southward-sagging front and nearby warm sector, on the northern fringes of an otherwise stout elevated-mixed-layer/cap. This includes parts of southern Missouri/northern Arkansas into Kentucky/western Tennessee. Damaging winds and severe hail will be possible. Farther east, in the wake of early-day/diminishing convection, the air mass will become unstable this afternoon along/south of the front from central/eastern Kentucky into portions of West Virginia/Virginia and the Delmarva vicinity. At least widely scattered thunderstorms should develop/intensify this afternoon and persist into the evening, with severe hail/wind possible.

That's still impressive for Mid May,if its close to being right ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: TRI LAT= 36.47 LON= -82.40 ELE= 1519 00Z MAY03 2 M 2 M 2 M SFC SFC 6 HR FROZN TOTAL MXT MNT TMP DEW WIND QPF PCP CLOUD (F) (F) (F) (F) (KTS) (IN) (IN) (PCT) SUN 00Z 03-MAY 64.3 54.9 21004 40 SUN 06Z 03-MAY 64.6 56.3 57.2 49.6 24004 31 SUN 12Z 03-MAY 57.7 54.0 57.8 51.3 23004 0.00 0.00 29 SUN 18Z 03-MAY 74.9 57.8 75.1 55.4 25008 0.00 0.00 1 MON 00Z 04-MAY 76.1 67.4 66.9 59.1 25007 0.03 0.00 99 MON 06Z 04-MAY 66.9 60.5 60.5 60.3 32004 0.29 0.00 100 MON 12Z 04-MAY 60.5 53.6 54.7 52.9 35002 0.03 0.00 10 MON 18Z 04-MAY 69.2 54.7 69.3 41.6 33005 0.00 0.00 29 TUE 00Z 05-MAY 70.6 62.6 62.0 52.2 03004 0.00 0.00 99 TUE 06Z 05-MAY 62.1 54.4 54.5 45.5 09003 0.00 0.00 100 TUE 12Z 05-MAY 54.8 51.3 52.5 51.9 14005 0.37 0.00 100 TUE 18Z 05-MAY 66.1 52.5 66.3 61.0 24008 0.24 0.00 93 WED 00Z 06-MAY 68.4 58.9 58.7 56.4 31008 0.19 0.00 92 WED 06Z 06-MAY 58.7 51.0 50.9 48.7 31005 0.01 0.00 35 WED 12Z 06-MAY 50.9 45.6 49.2 46.9 26004 0.00 0.00 47 WED 18Z 06-MAY 62.0 49.2 62.1 41.5 28009 0.02 0.00 88 THU 00Z 07-MAY 62.2 50.3 50.1 48.5 23004 0.22 0.00 57 THU 06Z 07-MAY 50.1 43.3 43.2 42.5 30006 0.14 0.00 41 THU 12Z 07-MAY 43.2 39.6 41.5 39.5 31005 0.00 0.00 28 THU 18Z 07-MAY 57.1 41.5 57.5 28.2 33008 0.00 0.00 73 FRI 00Z 08-MAY 61.7 52.7 52.3 38.7 35004 0.00 0.00 97 FRI 06Z 08-MAY 52.3 43.7 44.7 36.9 17003 0.00 0.00 95 FRI 12Z 08-MAY 46.5 44.6 45.7 39.9 19005 0.06 0.00 100 FRI 18Z 08-MAY 52.5 44.5 52.1 50.7 26003 0.22 0.00 100 SAT 00Z 09-MAY 54.1 50.1 49.8 48.2 31008 0.19 0.00 99 SAT 06Z 09-MAY 49.8 41.0 40.8 37.8 34008 0.01 0.00 50 SAT 12Z 09-MAY 40.7 31.3 33.4 25.3 31005 0.00 0.00 2 SAT 18Z 09-MAY 45.4 33.4 45.5 18.6 31009 0.00 0.00 1 SUN 00Z 10-MAY 49.0 41.8 41.5 22.6 31007 0.00 0.00 36 SUN 06Z 10-MAY 41.5 33.2 33.1 24.0 27005 0.00 0.00 0 SUN 12Z 10-MAY 34.0 30.0 34.6 25.6 27003 0.00 0.00 0 SUN 18Z 10-MAY 52.6 34.6 52.8 24.7 29010 0.00 0.00 67 MON 00Z 11-MAY 53.3 46.3 45.9 32.2 31006 0.00 0.00 20 MON 06Z 11-MAY 45.9 37.1 37.5 30.9 20003 0.00 0.00 0 MON 12Z 11-MAY 40.5 34.9 41.3 33.3 18002 0.00 0.00 1 MON 18Z 11-MAY 60.8 41.3 61.0 37.4 24010 0.00 0.00 24 TUE 00Z 12-MAY 62.2 56.2 55.8 48.5 27005 0.01 0.00 94 TUE 06Z 12-MAY 55.8 46.3 45.9 44.6 04003 0.01 0.00 98 TUE 12Z 12-MAY 46.4 44.0 46.6 44.0 07002 0.00 0.00 98 TUE 18Z 12-MAY 64.1 46.6 64.4 45.2 24002 0.00 0.00 24 WED 00Z 13-MAY 67.4 61.1 60.7 54.3 18003 0.00 0.00 20

See if the RAP is hinting at something.As the boundary slips Southward the 3Capes at least get up to mid to upper 70's even around 80 east of Nashville,so this could become more surface based into the Mid afternoon with steep lapse rates so could see some weak supercells by SARS.Wind and hail still looks like the primary

Subsurface continues to cool.By the looks right now into the 2nd week of May the MJO and Kelvin Wave could do some real damage into region 3 where the warmest waters are into the thermocline.Seemingly, we are fixing to see the start of Nina

Early Tuesday into the afternoon should be some possible strong storms.By the Euro this time frame will have the best LLShear passing through west to east but the better lapse are towards the south for a better hail chances,least right now,like Nashville mentions

National Weather Service Nashville TN 216 PM CDT Sat May 2 2020 .DISCUSSION... Surface high currently located along the southern Atlantic coast, Southwesterly flow now in place across the area with warm temps in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Skies are mostly sunny and dewpoints have been inching upward. The next 24 to 72 hours is looking rather unsettled. A surface boundary will be on approach by tomorrow afternoon. Instabilities will increase substantially by that time as the forcing from the north approaches. Latest 12Z models are leaning toward better organization in regard to dynamics by afternoon. Shear values not overly strong with 25 kts at 850 mb. However, lapse rates of -7.5C and -10c to -30c capes of around 1000 look to be in place. We are outlooked as marginal at this time. Latest Hrrr shows storms moving into our northwest around 3PM and moving southeastward through the area. Looks like hail and winds will be the primary threat. Much of the southern half of the mid state will be more of a momentum impact with the winds, as storms slowly lose intensity in the evening. Otherwise, boundary is oriented parallel to the storm motion so could see some training with localized heavy rainfall pockets, particularly north of I-40. SPC may or may not upgrade us to a slight so stand by for that, sometime tonight. Moving on, models are further south with the eastward track of the surface low on Monday night. It appears the low will move across southern KY with w-e elongation present. This spells out that the better instabilities will be further south for the Monday aft and evening period. Organized forcing looks rather sketchy the further south you go. Thus, not really seeing much severe potential for Mon aft and evening. Tuesday afternoon, the surface boundary will still be located across the mid state. Instabilities, south of the boundary will again soar with the boundary beginning to move southward by evening. Forcing organization will pick up across southern areas with the best chance of strong to severe storms over that area. Again, wind and hail will be possible.

Tomorrow is going to still seemingly be how bad the cap is.This afternoon the GFS has more moisture and the cap isn't as bad but still there. Wind and hail is the primary threat,. Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Sat May 02 2020 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARKS TO THE MID ATLANTIC...OVER CENTRAL TEXAS...AND OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms producing hail or damaging winds are possible Sunday from the Ozarks eastward across Kentucky, Tennessee and toward the Delmarva. Additional isolated severe storms are possible across the northern and central High Plains, and over a small portion of west-central Texas. ...Ozarks, OH/TN Valleys, Mid Atlantic... A shortwave trough will move across the Great Lakes on Sunday, with secondary disturbance farther south from the Ozarks into the OH Valley. As the upper wave amplifies late in the day, a surface trough will deepen across the Mid Atlantic, extending westward across KY and TN. High pressure will remain over the Southeast, with a narrow zone of higher dewpoints spreading across the lower MS valley, and extending northeast across TN and KY. Meanwhile, strong heating over VA may lead to increased evapotranspiration. Isolated storms are expected by late morning from the Ozarks eastward into KY and TN, aided initially by warm advection within the moist axis. Forecast soundings reveal warm temperatures around 700 mb, and models are not consistent regarding low-level lapse rates and capping. However, a conditional threat of localized damaging wind or hail exists. Farther east from KY to the Delmarva, better large-scale lift will develop, with a cold front surge during the evening. While warm temperatures near 700 mb will exist here as well, strong westerlies and deep-layer shear as well as cold upper-level temperatures may support severe wind or hail, and possibly an MCS. However, questions exist regarding thermodynamic profiles. Portions of this extensive Marginal Risk could require targeted upgrades to Slight as predictability increases in later outlooks.

Euro shows maybe some Rex block into the Baffin/Greenland in the long range,we couldnt get this look in winter but now into spring

The last strong IOD events 1994,1997,2006 all went into a more resurgent Nina or pattern starting into summer into fall 1996,1999 and 2008.

With a -NAO, deep ECONUS trough and strong subtropical jet in place, anything that would/could develop in the GOM is going to be a very asymmetric heavily sheared mess. Would probably resemble a system much like a running coastal low or nor'easter. However, that could bring severe storms across Florida and the coastal Carolinas if there were to be any phase. At any rate, something to watch in the long-range.THE G Agree.The Euro this afternoon is even hinting at a Rex Block into the Bafffin Bay/Greenland in the long range the same time it looks to be a possible Kelvin Wave moving into GOM during wk.2 of May

Public Information Statement...UPDATED National Weather Service Nashville TN 419 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2020 ...Very active year for tornadoes across Tennessee... 2020 has been a very active and devastating year for tornadoes throughout Tennessee. As of today, a preliminary total of 28 tornadoes have touched down across the state since January 1st. These tornadoes combined have killed 28 people, injured hundreds more, and caused hundreds of millions of dollars in damage. Below is a preliminary list of the tornadoes across Tennessee so far this year. Note that all information is subject to change. # Date Rating County - ---- ------ ------ 1 Jan 11 EF-1 Obion 2 Jan 11 EF-0 Fayette 3 Jan 11 EF-0 Weakley 4 Jan 11 EF-0 Claiborne 5 Feb 5 EF-1 Lawrence 6 Feb 5 EF-1 Lawrence 7 Feb 5 EF-0 Bedford 8 Feb 5 EF-0 Warren 9 Feb 5 EF-1 White 10 Feb 5 EF-1 White 11 Feb 12 EF-0 Lawrence 12 Mar 2 EF-1 Gibson 13 Mar 2 EF-2 Carroll 14 Mar 2 EF-2 Benton/Humphreys (1 death) 15 Mar 2 EF-0 Humphreys 16 Mar 3 EF-3 Davidson/Wilson/Smith (5 deaths) 17 Mar 3 EF-0 Putnam 18 Mar 3 EF-4 Putnam (19 deaths) 19 Mar 3 EF-0 Putnam 20 Mar 3 EF-2 Cumberland 21 Mar 3 EF-0 Morgan 22 Mar 24 EF-1 Franklin 23 Mar 29 EF-0 White 24 Apr 12 EF-3 Hamilton/Bradley (3 deaths) 25 Apr 12 EF-2 Bradley 26 Apr 12 EF-1 Bradley 27 Apr 12 EF-1 Bradley/Polk 28 Apr 25 EF-1 Wilson/Smith West Tennessee Total Tornadoes - 6* Middle Tennessee Total Tornadoes - 17* East Tennessee Total Tornadoes - 6 Tennessee Total 2020 Tornadoes - 28* * Note: One tornado on March 2 crossed from West Tennessee into Middle Tennessee and is counted twice

National Weather Service Nashville TN 230 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2020 .DISCUSSION... Closed upper low/deep trough over the region continues very slow eastward track. Instability from cold-core still expected to pop a few showers along the plateau into the late evening or so. Upper low currently on a southeast trajectory and will move off the Atlantic coast late Fri. Upper ridge will build in behind and bring us dry weather up into Sun. By early Sun, upper ridge breaking down and by this point a cold front is sitting just northwest. This frontal boundary will sink down into the mid-state late in the day, then continue south, reaching the TN/AL border vicinity toward Mon morning. Airmass ahead showing signs of pretty decent destabilization and there seems to be at least a marginal chance of SVR storms, with even a better chance across the northeast late Sun/Sun night. This will be helped along by passing weak upper wave. Upper flow shifts more northwest behind wave Sun night, while system across the plains retreats frontal boundary back just to our north by Mon evening. There is quite a bit of elevated instability Mon thus the scattered strong storm threat continues. GFS has boundary now just to our north pretty active Mon night into Tue, bringing a complex down in northwest flow. EURO now also looking very similar. Areas to our north look to have the biggest brunt at this point, but just a small deviation south will really increase widespread strong/severe chance. Stormy conditions continue after that as well, at least as far as the GFS in concerned. Tue afternoon, and especially Tue night, things look to be more organized once again. SBCAPE/MLCAPE shoot up across KY in the afternoon, then works down here. EBS and SRH both on the increase, and getting into mid-higher end levels. EURO however at this point much different. After Mon night episode, it pretty much favors areas south of us. Be interesting to see how this evolves. Either way, both models giving us pretty much a dry Wed into late week.

https://www.weather.gov/ohx/10thAnniversaryMay2010Flood

Looking like a boundary will slowly drift southward into the weekend at this time anyways,slight timing differences between models, but right now should be a potential for strong to severe thunderstorms into the Valley during this time frame

APEC looks quite bullish

Subsurface continues to cool,besides region 3

Headed towards South Gastonia maybe

Yeah seems more wind dmg than tornadoes,but some relentless cells ongoing

All three cells are now warned,impressive

Relentless storms,cell to the west should have a decent winds

Storms are dying out with loss of diurnal heating,plus these areas got worked over

3rd cell still looks the best right now

It could be starting to recycle