jaxjagman

With a -NAO, deep ECONUS trough and strong subtropical jet in place, anything that would/could develop in the GOM is going to be a very asymmetric heavily sheared mess. Would probably resemble a system much like a running coastal low or nor'easter. However, that could bring severe storms across Florida and the coastal Carolinas if there were to be any phase. At any rate, something to watch in the long-range.THE G Agree.The Euro this afternoon is even hinting at a Rex Block into the Bafffin Bay/Greenland in the long range the same time it looks to be a possible Kelvin Wave moving into GOM during wk.2 of May

Public Information Statement...UPDATED National Weather Service Nashville TN 419 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2020 ...Very active year for tornadoes across Tennessee... 2020 has been a very active and devastating year for tornadoes throughout Tennessee. As of today, a preliminary total of 28 tornadoes have touched down across the state since January 1st. These tornadoes combined have killed 28 people, injured hundreds more, and caused hundreds of millions of dollars in damage. Below is a preliminary list of the tornadoes across Tennessee so far this year. Note that all information is subject to change. # Date Rating County - ---- ------ ------ 1 Jan 11 EF-1 Obion 2 Jan 11 EF-0 Fayette 3 Jan 11 EF-0 Weakley 4 Jan 11 EF-0 Claiborne 5 Feb 5 EF-1 Lawrence 6 Feb 5 EF-1 Lawrence 7 Feb 5 EF-0 Bedford 8 Feb 5 EF-0 Warren 9 Feb 5 EF-1 White 10 Feb 5 EF-1 White 11 Feb 12 EF-0 Lawrence 12 Mar 2 EF-1 Gibson 13 Mar 2 EF-2 Carroll 14 Mar 2 EF-2 Benton/Humphreys (1 death) 15 Mar 2 EF-0 Humphreys 16 Mar 3 EF-3 Davidson/Wilson/Smith (5 deaths) 17 Mar 3 EF-0 Putnam 18 Mar 3 EF-4 Putnam (19 deaths) 19 Mar 3 EF-0 Putnam 20 Mar 3 EF-2 Cumberland 21 Mar 3 EF-0 Morgan 22 Mar 24 EF-1 Franklin 23 Mar 29 EF-0 White 24 Apr 12 EF-3 Hamilton/Bradley (3 deaths) 25 Apr 12 EF-2 Bradley 26 Apr 12 EF-1 Bradley 27 Apr 12 EF-1 Bradley/Polk 28 Apr 25 EF-1 Wilson/Smith West Tennessee Total Tornadoes - 6* Middle Tennessee Total Tornadoes - 17* East Tennessee Total Tornadoes - 6 Tennessee Total 2020 Tornadoes - 28* * Note: One tornado on March 2 crossed from West Tennessee into Middle Tennessee and is counted twice

National Weather Service Nashville TN 230 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2020 .DISCUSSION... Closed upper low/deep trough over the region continues very slow eastward track. Instability from cold-core still expected to pop a few showers along the plateau into the late evening or so. Upper low currently on a southeast trajectory and will move off the Atlantic coast late Fri. Upper ridge will build in behind and bring us dry weather up into Sun. By early Sun, upper ridge breaking down and by this point a cold front is sitting just northwest. This frontal boundary will sink down into the mid-state late in the day, then continue south, reaching the TN/AL border vicinity toward Mon morning. Airmass ahead showing signs of pretty decent destabilization and there seems to be at least a marginal chance of SVR storms, with even a better chance across the northeast late Sun/Sun night. This will be helped along by passing weak upper wave. Upper flow shifts more northwest behind wave Sun night, while system across the plains retreats frontal boundary back just to our north by Mon evening. There is quite a bit of elevated instability Mon thus the scattered strong storm threat continues. GFS has boundary now just to our north pretty active Mon night into Tue, bringing a complex down in northwest flow. EURO now also looking very similar. Areas to our north look to have the biggest brunt at this point, but just a small deviation south will really increase widespread strong/severe chance. Stormy conditions continue after that as well, at least as far as the GFS in concerned. Tue afternoon, and especially Tue night, things look to be more organized once again. SBCAPE/MLCAPE shoot up across KY in the afternoon, then works down here. EBS and SRH both on the increase, and getting into mid-higher end levels. EURO however at this point much different. After Mon night episode, it pretty much favors areas south of us. Be interesting to see how this evolves. Either way, both models giving us pretty much a dry Wed into late week.

https://www.weather.gov/ohx/10thAnniversaryMay2010Flood

Looking like a boundary will slowly drift southward into the weekend at this time anyways,slight timing differences between models, but right now should be a potential for strong to severe thunderstorms into the Valley during this time frame

APEC looks quite bullish

Subsurface continues to cool,besides region 3

Headed towards South Gastonia maybe

Yeah seems more wind dmg than tornadoes,but some relentless cells ongoing

All three cells are now warned,impressive

Relentless storms,cell to the west should have a decent winds

Storms are dying out with loss of diurnal heating,plus these areas got worked over

3rd cell still looks the best right now

It could be starting to recycle

There it is,the 3rd cell

Probably watch the cell behind the 2nd cell as well

2nd cell seems to dying,first cell seems to headed towards Travelers Rest right now

Looks like another cell could be on its heels to the west

Headed towards Pickens seemingly right now

News said it was,quick mesoscale.Those cells around that area had some clearing earlier

Thats what i get when i take my scan off OHX so quick

Stroms just dont have the umph when they show rotation,the best cell seems to be the cell possibly headed towards Rocky Top

This is what i was looking at as well.It's hard to find even PW's even getting to 1.1"

More than i thought..lol Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2020 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered, strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon across portions of the Tennessee Valley into the southern Appalachians. A few strong storms may also develop across south Florida. ...TN Valley/Southern Appalachians... Sharp mid-level speed max is forecast to eject across AR into northern AL by 26/00z. This feature is associated with a pronounced short-wave trough that should encourage strong-severe convection across the TN Valley during the afternoon. Latest model guidance continues to suggest a strongly diffluent high-level flow regime will develop across the TN Valley ahead of the short wave and a weak surface low is expected to track from the Boot Heel of MO toward central KY during the afternoon. Very cold mid-level temperatures will spread east, along/north of the cyclonic jet such that steep lapse rates will be common, especially as some boundary-layer warming is anticipated immediately ahead of the Pacific front. While moisture is seasonally low across the Gulf States into the TN Valley, 50s surface dew points should yield modest SBCAPE north of the jet where 500mb temperatures are forecast to be as cool as -18C at peak heating. Forecast soundings suggest surface parcels will reach convective temperature by 17-18z and isolated thunderstorms should initiate within exit region of aforementioned jet. Shear profiles favor supercells and hail may be the greatest threat with this activity; although, low-level shear appears adequate for some tornado potential. Robust convection should spread toward the southern Appalachians by evening where it will encounter a wedge front anchored east of the mountains. Some erosion of the cool boundary layer will be noted across SC into extreme western NC. For this reason have adjusted severe probabilities to account for destabilization in this region. Otherwise, air mass will struggle to recover across the southern Middle Atlantic during the overnight hours. Even so, sustained warm advection does warrant some threat for a few strong storms late.