jaxjagman

So basically you'd rather see the tripole warm and not cool,it has adverse effects https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/JAS-D-11-018.1

Also,if its even right of course at this range this would be seemingly a time where you'd root for the EPO more than anything.Certainly would be a chance of a SER

You'd rather see the N/ATL Tripole warm not cool,depending on other modes this screams +NAO

That was a large tornado in Ms

Glad yall finally got your power back,plus yall are safe. Looks kinda of messy towards next weekend but the Euro today has a LP once again towards Delta Friday afternoon with the system going -ve tilt into the lower Ms/Valley which should slow the system down.Euro shows once again some possibly strong inversion with TT's 54-56 in the Mid Valley but not as strong with the cap in the east.It still is messy until we figure out what the storm will do before a couple days

Region 3 is now the warm spot.The subsurface is now the warmest into 3 and 3,4.Models show a KW moving east of the IDL in a couple days.If the weeklies are right,region 3 will cool towards the middle of next month.

Latest JAMSTEC,into summer

Jamstec is now shifting towards LaNina but would fall back to more neutral into winter.It wasn't even showing a LaNina last update

Subsurface is cooling.Today 4 /3.4 and 3 are around +0.4 and 1.2 is fixing to warm back up.

https://atlas.niu.edu/

Should be an active period coming up,seemingly

MJO is now headed into some favorable phases,when it gets into the eastern IO seems some uncertainty afterwards,CFS seems to want to show the GWO going -ve but still into the COD,but even so the East Asia seems like its going to get active once again.Depending on the teleconnections their could be a system in the long range as as a trough went through the Yellow Sea into S/Korea yesterday,possibly the end of next weekend we might see something.As well you should look at the ENSO,after the MJO, Kelvin and a WWB on going, region 4 might not be the hot spot but east of the IDL might be,and could excite once again the S/Jet even more down the road

https://weather.com/storms/tornado/news/2020-04-12-deadly-tornadoes-severe-weather-impacts-mississippi-louisiana-south

Maybe not could be another cell forming

Head towards Hopewell now

Yeah headed towards South Cleveland

TOG with that cell above

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0139 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 245 PM EDT Sun Apr 12 2020 Areas affected...Northeast LA...Central/Northern MS...Central/Southern TN...Far Northwest GA Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 121845Z - 130045Z SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms will continue to impact portions of the lower MS Valley and especially the Mid-South this afternoon and into the evening. The threat for flooding and flash flooding will remain elevated given the increasingly wet antecedent conditions, and high rainfall rate potential. DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-16 IR satellite imagery shows an impressively diffluent flow pattern aloft from the lower MS Valley to the Mid-South out ahead of an ejecting mid-level shortwave trough over the southern Plains. This along with area radars confirm an expansive area of cold-topped convection which includes vigorous severe-mode thunderstorms impacting northeast LA and west-central MS, and a notably elevated arc of heavy showers and thunderstorms to the northeast from northern MS, northern AL and through adjacent areas of western and central TN. While being aided by strong synoptic scale ascent, the convection is focusing within a highly favorable thermodynamic environment that is being facilitated by a very strong southwest low-level jet. In fact, as of 1800Z, VAD wind profiler data is depicting flow ranging in the 50 to 70 kt range at 850 mb, and 40 to 50 kts at 925 mb. This is fostering extreme low-level moisture transport and is also transporting a significant amount of warm-sector instability well north over an advancing warm front to promote and sustain the convective threat. Going through the late-afternoon and early evening hours, the greatest rainfall threat will overwhelmingly be over the Mid-South, with an emphasis on northern MS, northern AL, much of central/southern TN and gradually edging into far northwest GA. This is basically where the strongest warm-air advection, deep layer ascent will overlap with the aforementioned extreme moisture and instability transport regime. PWs of 1.75 to 2 inches are forecast, and with a nose of 1000 to 2000 j/kg of MUCAPE. However, farther down to the southwest over areas of central/northeast LA and through central MS, there will be even greater warm-sector instability and deep layer shear that will be conducive for highly organized and severe-mode convection that will in itself be capable of producing very heavy rainfall. Rainfall rates have already been locally observed over 2 inches, and this potential should continue over the next several hours with the deeper and more organized convective cores. The recent runs of the HRRR and the experimental HRRR favor swaths of as much as 2 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated totals of 5+ inches going through 00Z. Additional heavy rainfall potential will exist after 00Z over the Mid-South, with an increasing threat also spreading over the southern Appalachians. Given the increasingly wet antecedent soil conditions, especially over the Mid-South, areas of flooding and flash flooding will remain likely. Orrison

National Weather Service Nashville TN 133 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020 .DISCUSSION... Showers have been pounding Middle Tennessee all morning, and a line of enhanced echoes is currently making its way northward across the mid state owing a weak surface trough or a meso-low trying to spin off. The primary center of low pressure is still situated near the Ozarks, and is forecast to move into the Ohio Valley by 06Z while deepening to 991-993 mb. This will contribute to a strong pressure gradient over Middle Tennessee for several hours later this afternoon and tonight, hence the Wind Advisory. Meanwhile, the environment across Middle Tennessee remains capped, especially across the cooler northern zones. The NAM12 forecast sounding for BNA valid at 21Z shows a SBCAPE of 0, but the MUCAPE (900 mb) is nearly 500 J/Kg. The expected 0-3 SRH at the same time is a whopping 1,160 m2/s2. We never really do get any SBCAPE this far north, but the cap does erode somewhat as the surface front approaches, and MUCAPE values should increase to around 1,000 J/kg, so the lift provided by the cold front should be able to tap into that elevated instability. When combined with the enormous shear values, don`t see any need to deviate from the current severe weather messaging of damaging straight-line winds and isolated tornadoes, especially south of I-40. Actual fropa should occur between maybe 02Z and 07Z, with sharp subsidence right behind the front. The surface low passes close enough to Middle Tennessee that we will likely experience a swath of wrap- around moisture toward morning and maybe some lingering showers along the Cumberland Plateau Monday morning. Looking ahead, next week looks to be much cooler than normal with only nominal chances of rain. We could see areas of frost as late as Thursday morning. Expect a pleasant warming trend by next weekend. After tonight, we don`t see any severe weather risk at least through Saturday.

Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1200 PM EDT Sun Apr 12 2020 Day 1 Valid 12Z Sun Apr 12 2020 - 12Z Mon Apr 13 2020 ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM THE MID SOUTH THROUGH PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...Southern U.S / Moderate Risk Area... In the 16Z update the Moderate Risk is nearly the same as it was. We expanded coverage on the western end, over Arkansas, to account for what was an ideal heavy rain setup in the near term through 19Z as well as some wet antecedent conditions from early morning rainfall. While 00Z hi-res models did not fare well in handling the Texas MCS this morning, the expected axis of greatest rainfall totals did not change too much, as the synoptics will largely dictate that MCS activity rolls eastward along the advancing deep layer warm front, shallow upslope convection boosts totals in the Appalachians, and a separate round of moderate to heavy rain forms this evening ahead of the surface front in the Plains / Midwest. The 06Z NAM Nest had a decent handle on the Texas MCS, and many of the 12Z hi-res solutions looked well initialized. Overall, we prefer the details of the 12Z HRRR, WRF-ARW, and NAM Nest per their simulated reflectivity fields. A QPF blend using these sources and a base layer of broader resolution consensus QPF suggests the emphasis for higher-end rainfall continues to be north of the surface warm front from eastern Arkansas through southern Tennessee and all adjacent states to the south. This is essentially where a more cellular / supercellular regime transitions to one of QLCS activity with broader distribution of heavy rainfall. Rainfall will likely average 2-4 inches here, with local totals above 5 inches. Stronger capping limits the southward extent, and migration of rain-cooled air along the northern periphery limits northward extent of the heavier totals, thus giving us higher confidence in placement. The whole weather system is strongly anomalous, with the strength of the mid-level systems at play 3-4 sigmas below the mean for mid-April and a surface cyclone 4-5 sigmas below the mean -- near record values for April -- from the Mid-South into the Lower Peninsula of MI. Both Precipitable water and Integrated Vapor Transport values are near record levels for this time of year since the cyclone will drive a powerful low-level jet (approaching 80 kts) -- with effective bulk shear to match -- that will invade from the Gulf coast into the lower MS Valley, TN Valley, and southern Appalachians this period. ML CAPE is likely to build towards 3000 J/kg during the afternoon hours within the capped warm sector near LA where 700 hPa temperatures are expected to exceed 9C which should boost convective potential downstream into the evening hours. The synoptic scale system will remain progressive, which will have a tendency to cap the upper magnitude of the rainfall potential. With concerns for episodic training of convection along/near a warm front lifting north through the TN Valley/southern Appalachians, hourly rainfall totals are likely to max out in the 2-3"/hour range within mesocyclones, cell mergers, and periods of training. Swaths of the Mid-South, Southeast, and southern Appalachians shows 50%+ chance of exceeding 3" of rain this period per the 00z HREF probabilities. The 00z HREF probabilities for 5"+ maximize in southwest NC where the chances of exceedance lie above 90%.

Tornado around Yazoo city,go figure

Have to wait and see but if the lid isn't that strong as advertised or breaks sooner.HREF shows some half way decent updrafts if its to be believed