jaxjagman

MJO is now headed into some favorable phases,when it gets into the eastern IO seems some uncertainty afterwards,CFS seems to want to show the GWO going -ve but still into the COD,but even so the East Asia seems like its going to get active once again.Depending on the teleconnections their could be a system in the long range as as a trough went through the Yellow Sea into S/Korea yesterday,possibly the end of next weekend we might see something.As well you should look at the ENSO,after the MJO, Kelvin and a WWB on going, region 4 might not be the hot spot but east of the IDL might be,and could excite once again the S/Jet even more down the road

https://weather.com/storms/tornado/news/2020-04-12-deadly-tornadoes-severe-weather-impacts-mississippi-louisiana-south

Maybe not could be another cell forming

Head towards Hopewell now

Yeah headed towards South Cleveland

TOG with that cell above

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0139 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 245 PM EDT Sun Apr 12 2020 Areas affected...Northeast LA...Central/Northern MS...Central/Southern TN...Far Northwest GA Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 121845Z - 130045Z SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms will continue to impact portions of the lower MS Valley and especially the Mid-South this afternoon and into the evening. The threat for flooding and flash flooding will remain elevated given the increasingly wet antecedent conditions, and high rainfall rate potential. DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-16 IR satellite imagery shows an impressively diffluent flow pattern aloft from the lower MS Valley to the Mid-South out ahead of an ejecting mid-level shortwave trough over the southern Plains. This along with area radars confirm an expansive area of cold-topped convection which includes vigorous severe-mode thunderstorms impacting northeast LA and west-central MS, and a notably elevated arc of heavy showers and thunderstorms to the northeast from northern MS, northern AL and through adjacent areas of western and central TN. While being aided by strong synoptic scale ascent, the convection is focusing within a highly favorable thermodynamic environment that is being facilitated by a very strong southwest low-level jet. In fact, as of 1800Z, VAD wind profiler data is depicting flow ranging in the 50 to 70 kt range at 850 mb, and 40 to 50 kts at 925 mb. This is fostering extreme low-level moisture transport and is also transporting a significant amount of warm-sector instability well north over an advancing warm front to promote and sustain the convective threat. Going through the late-afternoon and early evening hours, the greatest rainfall threat will overwhelmingly be over the Mid-South, with an emphasis on northern MS, northern AL, much of central/southern TN and gradually edging into far northwest GA. This is basically where the strongest warm-air advection, deep layer ascent will overlap with the aforementioned extreme moisture and instability transport regime. PWs of 1.75 to 2 inches are forecast, and with a nose of 1000 to 2000 j/kg of MUCAPE. However, farther down to the southwest over areas of central/northeast LA and through central MS, there will be even greater warm-sector instability and deep layer shear that will be conducive for highly organized and severe-mode convection that will in itself be capable of producing very heavy rainfall. Rainfall rates have already been locally observed over 2 inches, and this potential should continue over the next several hours with the deeper and more organized convective cores. The recent runs of the HRRR and the experimental HRRR favor swaths of as much as 2 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated totals of 5+ inches going through 00Z. Additional heavy rainfall potential will exist after 00Z over the Mid-South, with an increasing threat also spreading over the southern Appalachians. Given the increasingly wet antecedent soil conditions, especially over the Mid-South, areas of flooding and flash flooding will remain likely. Orrison

National Weather Service Nashville TN 133 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020 .DISCUSSION... Showers have been pounding Middle Tennessee all morning, and a line of enhanced echoes is currently making its way northward across the mid state owing a weak surface trough or a meso-low trying to spin off. The primary center of low pressure is still situated near the Ozarks, and is forecast to move into the Ohio Valley by 06Z while deepening to 991-993 mb. This will contribute to a strong pressure gradient over Middle Tennessee for several hours later this afternoon and tonight, hence the Wind Advisory. Meanwhile, the environment across Middle Tennessee remains capped, especially across the cooler northern zones. The NAM12 forecast sounding for BNA valid at 21Z shows a SBCAPE of 0, but the MUCAPE (900 mb) is nearly 500 J/Kg. The expected 0-3 SRH at the same time is a whopping 1,160 m2/s2. We never really do get any SBCAPE this far north, but the cap does erode somewhat as the surface front approaches, and MUCAPE values should increase to around 1,000 J/kg, so the lift provided by the cold front should be able to tap into that elevated instability. When combined with the enormous shear values, don`t see any need to deviate from the current severe weather messaging of damaging straight-line winds and isolated tornadoes, especially south of I-40. Actual fropa should occur between maybe 02Z and 07Z, with sharp subsidence right behind the front. The surface low passes close enough to Middle Tennessee that we will likely experience a swath of wrap- around moisture toward morning and maybe some lingering showers along the Cumberland Plateau Monday morning. Looking ahead, next week looks to be much cooler than normal with only nominal chances of rain. We could see areas of frost as late as Thursday morning. Expect a pleasant warming trend by next weekend. After tonight, we don`t see any severe weather risk at least through Saturday.

Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1200 PM EDT Sun Apr 12 2020 Day 1 Valid 12Z Sun Apr 12 2020 - 12Z Mon Apr 13 2020 ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM THE MID SOUTH THROUGH PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...Southern U.S / Moderate Risk Area... In the 16Z update the Moderate Risk is nearly the same as it was. We expanded coverage on the western end, over Arkansas, to account for what was an ideal heavy rain setup in the near term through 19Z as well as some wet antecedent conditions from early morning rainfall. While 00Z hi-res models did not fare well in handling the Texas MCS this morning, the expected axis of greatest rainfall totals did not change too much, as the synoptics will largely dictate that MCS activity rolls eastward along the advancing deep layer warm front, shallow upslope convection boosts totals in the Appalachians, and a separate round of moderate to heavy rain forms this evening ahead of the surface front in the Plains / Midwest. The 06Z NAM Nest had a decent handle on the Texas MCS, and many of the 12Z hi-res solutions looked well initialized. Overall, we prefer the details of the 12Z HRRR, WRF-ARW, and NAM Nest per their simulated reflectivity fields. A QPF blend using these sources and a base layer of broader resolution consensus QPF suggests the emphasis for higher-end rainfall continues to be north of the surface warm front from eastern Arkansas through southern Tennessee and all adjacent states to the south. This is essentially where a more cellular / supercellular regime transitions to one of QLCS activity with broader distribution of heavy rainfall. Rainfall will likely average 2-4 inches here, with local totals above 5 inches. Stronger capping limits the southward extent, and migration of rain-cooled air along the northern periphery limits northward extent of the heavier totals, thus giving us higher confidence in placement. The whole weather system is strongly anomalous, with the strength of the mid-level systems at play 3-4 sigmas below the mean for mid-April and a surface cyclone 4-5 sigmas below the mean -- near record values for April -- from the Mid-South into the Lower Peninsula of MI. Both Precipitable water and Integrated Vapor Transport values are near record levels for this time of year since the cyclone will drive a powerful low-level jet (approaching 80 kts) -- with effective bulk shear to match -- that will invade from the Gulf coast into the lower MS Valley, TN Valley, and southern Appalachians this period. ML CAPE is likely to build towards 3000 J/kg during the afternoon hours within the capped warm sector near LA where 700 hPa temperatures are expected to exceed 9C which should boost convective potential downstream into the evening hours. The synoptic scale system will remain progressive, which will have a tendency to cap the upper magnitude of the rainfall potential. With concerns for episodic training of convection along/near a warm front lifting north through the TN Valley/southern Appalachians, hourly rainfall totals are likely to max out in the 2-3"/hour range within mesocyclones, cell mergers, and periods of training. Swaths of the Mid-South, Southeast, and southern Appalachians shows 50%+ chance of exceeding 3" of rain this period per the 00z HREF probabilities. The 00z HREF probabilities for 5"+ maximize in southwest NC where the chances of exceedance lie above 90%.

Tornado around Yazoo city,go figure

Have to wait and see but if the lid isn't that strong as advertised or breaks sooner.HREF shows some half way decent updrafts if its to be believed

Yeah keep seeing some strong inversion setting into the Valley soon by both the HRRR and RAP

Finally showing something

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 106 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1040 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Far southeast Arkansas Northeast Louisiana Northern and central Mississippi * Effective this Sunday morning and evening from 1040 AM until 800 PM CDT. ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION... * Primary threats include... Several tornadoes and a few intense tornadoes likely Widespread damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Intense bowing line with a history of several tornadoes in northwest Louisiana will progress rapidly east-northeast this afternoon. Additional semi-discrete suprecells may develop ahead of the line as well across parts of northern and central Mississippi. Environment is supportive of several tornadoes, some of which will likely be strong in addition to potential widespread damaging winds. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles north and south of a line from 5 miles north northwest of Monroe LA to 20 miles south of Columbus MS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings.

Would not take much instability,but who knows if its gonna be right

Nice if its right

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS SOUTHEAST AR...NORTHERN LA...MUCH OF MS...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AL AND FAR NORTHWEST GA... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe thunderstorms is likely today into tonight, with the greatest threat expected from Louisiana through much of the Southeast and Tennessee Valley. Strong tornadoes, widespread damaging winds, and large hail are all possible. ...Synopsis... An outbreak of severe storms is expected today across portions of the Lower MS Valley into the Southeastern U.S. Intense storms capable of widespread damaging winds, large hail, and several strong tornadoes are possible with several rounds of storms from late morning into the overnight hours. ...ArkLaTex into the Southeast... Initially, convection is expected to be ongoing across east TX this morning, in association with a lead shortwave perturbation. Storm mode may be messy with this area of convection as it spreads east/northeast across northern LA/southern AR into northern MS and the TN Valley vicinity. However, strong warm advection will bring upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints as far north as I-20 by late morning/middday, as a 50+ kt southwesterly low level jet overspreads the lower MS Valley. As a result, any convection that is initially elevated above a modest EML should quickly become surface based. Additional convection is then expected to develop by early afternoon as a weak cap erodes across central and southern MS along a pre-frontal trough/confluence band. These storms will likely be more classic semi-discrete supercells, and spread eastward into AL by late afternoon, and northern GA during the evening. Large, curved hodographs and deep, rich boundary layer moisture in intense vertical shear will support long-lived supercells capable of producing significant tornadoes. Overnight, there is some potential for upscale growth into a LEWP/QLCS across eastern AL/GA into the FL Panhandle. Damaging wind and mesovortex tornadoes are possible with this convective mode as well. Further east, strong surface heating and increasing dewpoints will result in weak destabilization across the Carolinas in the vicinity of a weak surface trough. Upper forcing will remain weaker across this area, limiting storm coverage. However, a few cells could become intense, capable of a couple of tornadoes and severe wind/hail during the afternoon. ...Ozarks Vicinity to Lower OH Valley... Additional convection is expected to develop in association with the main mid/upper shortwave trough ejecting across the southern Plains through 00z, then northeastward across the OH Valley overnight. Storms are expected to develo across eastern OK during the afternoon and spread eastward into southern MO and AR. Some semi-discrete cells are possible initially, and will be capable of producing very large hail. However, low level shear will become veered and deep layer flow more parallel to a surface cold front, resulting in some upscale growth into one or more bowing segments. This could result in a corridor of intense, damaging winds from northern AR into western TN/KY during the evening/overnight hours. In addition to damaging wind potential, mesovortex tornadoes also will be possible with this activity. ...Mid-MS Valley into the Central Appalachians... Isolated thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon across northern MO into southern IA in strong warm advection ahead of the surface cold front. Marginally severe hail and wind will accompany these storms. During the evening and overnight hours, a surface low will continue to deepen as it lift northeast toward the Great Lakes. Additional storms will spread across the IN/OH and into portions of the central Appalachians posing a threat for locally strong wind gusts and isolated hail with the strongest cells. ..Leitman.. 04/12/2020

Could be some super cells develop into the late afternoon into the early evening in the western valley.Seems to be showing a cap into the afternoon but after the cap breaks

Surprised they still trust the NAM National Weather Service Nashville TN 1028 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2020 .UPDATE... FOR EVENING DISCUSSION. && .DISCUSSION... Made some minor tweaks to sky conditions and potential some light rain moving into southwestern portions of mid state approaching 12/06Z per regional radar and satellite imagery. Current temperatures trends in line with forecasted lows. Tweaked hourly temperature, dewpoint, and wind speed/direction grids. 12/00Z NAM coming in but GFS is still 11/18Z. Had enough confidence in 11/12Z & 11/18Z model runs depiction/guidance and saw no reason it would radically change in the upcoming suite of 12/00Z model runs to do the following. With WPC placing late this afternoon mainly southern and eastern portions of mid state in a moderate risk of excessive rainfall for Sunday afternoon through Sunday night, issued a Flash Flood Watch for areas near and across these locations from noon Sunday through 7 AM CDT Monday for Cumberland Plateau Region earlier this evening. Two to three inches, with training convection resulting in localized possiblity of 4 to 6 inches, especially across southeastern portions of Cumberland Plateau Region where warm frontal passage might occur Sunday evening, is expected. Strong low level jet dynamics are expected to develop by the mid morning hours on Sunday and persist with approaching and even after surface frontal passage on Sunday Night. This due to pronounced upper level troughing moving across mid state region late Sunday night into morning hours on Monday. Surface winds will initially be orientated southeasterly by the mid morning hours on Sunday but will veer south to southwest to eventually west by late Sunday night. Sustained surface winds will generally 15 to 25 mph, but gusts to around 45 mph possible. Taking a quick look, 12/00Z NAM still holding trend of its previous model runs showing mid state more conducive to severe weather development on Sunday night.

If its to be believed the RAP would be rather impressive in the Western Valley with DP'S hitting the lower 70's after the inversion would break the storms would grow rather rapidly upscale

If the virus wasnt going on right now i'd go towards Yazoo,Ms,but i'm not leaving the state

Indices put together for a chance of a significant tornado or tornado