jaxjagman

Yeah buddy

12Z Euro sped up,quite a bit.Sure it will change once again,pretty volatile pattern right now.

Have to wait and see what the first system does.But both the Euro and GFS is hinting at the trough will go -ve tilt somewhere .Euro looks more into the lower Ms/Valley but the GFS is further east around the Friday time frame.GFS seems to want to make the 2nd system the dominant storm tonight with even very little inversion.One of them is going to fail seemingly,the first storm or the next system into possibly next weekend

So basically you'd rather see the tripole warm and not cool,it has adverse effects https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/JAS-D-11-018.1

Also,if its even right of course at this range this would be seemingly a time where you'd root for the EPO more than anything.Certainly would be a chance of a SER

You'd rather see the N/ATL Tripole warm not cool,depending on other modes this screams +NAO

That was a large tornado in Ms

Glad yall finally got your power back,plus yall are safe. Looks kinda of messy towards next weekend but the Euro today has a LP once again towards Delta Friday afternoon with the system going -ve tilt into the lower Ms/Valley which should slow the system down.Euro shows once again some possibly strong inversion with TT's 54-56 in the Mid Valley but not as strong with the cap in the east.It still is messy until we figure out what the storm will do before a couple days

Region 3 is now the warm spot.The subsurface is now the warmest into 3 and 3,4.Models show a KW moving east of the IDL in a couple days.If the weeklies are right,region 3 will cool towards the middle of next month.

Latest JAMSTEC,into summer

Jamstec is now shifting towards LaNina but would fall back to more neutral into winter.It wasn't even showing a LaNina last update

Subsurface is cooling.Today 4 /3.4 and 3 are around +0.4 and 1.2 is fixing to warm back up.

https://atlas.niu.edu/

Should be an active period coming up,seemingly

MJO is now headed into some favorable phases,when it gets into the eastern IO seems some uncertainty afterwards,CFS seems to want to show the GWO going -ve but still into the COD,but even so the East Asia seems like its going to get active once again.Depending on the teleconnections their could be a system in the long range as as a trough went through the Yellow Sea into S/Korea yesterday,possibly the end of next weekend we might see something.As well you should look at the ENSO,after the MJO, Kelvin and a WWB on going, region 4 might not be the hot spot but east of the IDL might be,and could excite once again the S/Jet even more down the road

https://weather.com/storms/tornado/news/2020-04-12-deadly-tornadoes-severe-weather-impacts-mississippi-louisiana-south

Maybe not could be another cell forming

Head towards Hopewell now

Yeah headed towards South Cleveland

TOG with that cell above

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0139 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 245 PM EDT Sun Apr 12 2020 Areas affected...Northeast LA...Central/Northern MS...Central/Southern TN...Far Northwest GA Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 121845Z - 130045Z SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms will continue to impact portions of the lower MS Valley and especially the Mid-South this afternoon and into the evening. The threat for flooding and flash flooding will remain elevated given the increasingly wet antecedent conditions, and high rainfall rate potential. DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-16 IR satellite imagery shows an impressively diffluent flow pattern aloft from the lower MS Valley to the Mid-South out ahead of an ejecting mid-level shortwave trough over the southern Plains. This along with area radars confirm an expansive area of cold-topped convection which includes vigorous severe-mode thunderstorms impacting northeast LA and west-central MS, and a notably elevated arc of heavy showers and thunderstorms to the northeast from northern MS, northern AL and through adjacent areas of western and central TN. While being aided by strong synoptic scale ascent, the convection is focusing within a highly favorable thermodynamic environment that is being facilitated by a very strong southwest low-level jet. In fact, as of 1800Z, VAD wind profiler data is depicting flow ranging in the 50 to 70 kt range at 850 mb, and 40 to 50 kts at 925 mb. This is fostering extreme low-level moisture transport and is also transporting a significant amount of warm-sector instability well north over an advancing warm front to promote and sustain the convective threat. Going through the late-afternoon and early evening hours, the greatest rainfall threat will overwhelmingly be over the Mid-South, with an emphasis on northern MS, northern AL, much of central/southern TN and gradually edging into far northwest GA. This is basically where the strongest warm-air advection, deep layer ascent will overlap with the aforementioned extreme moisture and instability transport regime. PWs of 1.75 to 2 inches are forecast, and with a nose of 1000 to 2000 j/kg of MUCAPE. However, farther down to the southwest over areas of central/northeast LA and through central MS, there will be even greater warm-sector instability and deep layer shear that will be conducive for highly organized and severe-mode convection that will in itself be capable of producing very heavy rainfall. Rainfall rates have already been locally observed over 2 inches, and this potential should continue over the next several hours with the deeper and more organized convective cores. The recent runs of the HRRR and the experimental HRRR favor swaths of as much as 2 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated totals of 5+ inches going through 00Z. Additional heavy rainfall potential will exist after 00Z over the Mid-South, with an increasing threat also spreading over the southern Appalachians. Given the increasingly wet antecedent soil conditions, especially over the Mid-South, areas of flooding and flash flooding will remain likely. Orrison

National Weather Service Nashville TN 133 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020 .DISCUSSION... Showers have been pounding Middle Tennessee all morning, and a line of enhanced echoes is currently making its way northward across the mid state owing a weak surface trough or a meso-low trying to spin off. The primary center of low pressure is still situated near the Ozarks, and is forecast to move into the Ohio Valley by 06Z while deepening to 991-993 mb. This will contribute to a strong pressure gradient over Middle Tennessee for several hours later this afternoon and tonight, hence the Wind Advisory. Meanwhile, the environment across Middle Tennessee remains capped, especially across the cooler northern zones. The NAM12 forecast sounding for BNA valid at 21Z shows a SBCAPE of 0, but the MUCAPE (900 mb) is nearly 500 J/Kg. The expected 0-3 SRH at the same time is a whopping 1,160 m2/s2. We never really do get any SBCAPE this far north, but the cap does erode somewhat as the surface front approaches, and MUCAPE values should increase to around 1,000 J/kg, so the lift provided by the cold front should be able to tap into that elevated instability. When combined with the enormous shear values, don`t see any need to deviate from the current severe weather messaging of damaging straight-line winds and isolated tornadoes, especially south of I-40. Actual fropa should occur between maybe 02Z and 07Z, with sharp subsidence right behind the front. The surface low passes close enough to Middle Tennessee that we will likely experience a swath of wrap- around moisture toward morning and maybe some lingering showers along the Cumberland Plateau Monday morning. Looking ahead, next week looks to be much cooler than normal with only nominal chances of rain. We could see areas of frost as late as Thursday morning. Expect a pleasant warming trend by next weekend. After tonight, we don`t see any severe weather risk at least through Saturday.