jaxjagman

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2020 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms may impact parts of the Ozarks into the Mid-South, lower Mississippi Valley, and central Gulf Coast states today. Isolated damaging winds and large hail may occur, along with a couple tornadoes. ...Ozarks into the Mid-South and Lower Mississippi Valley... A small cluster of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period later this morning across northwestern AR and adjacent southern MO. This convection is expected to continue southeastward across AR and into parts of the Mid-South through the early afternoon in tandem with a 30-40 kt southwesterly low-level jet. These storms will eventually encounter greater low-level moisture across central/southern AR and northern MS as they cross a surface warm front. The potential for strong/gusty winds to reach the surface and produce isolated damage should also gradually increase as diurnal heating occurs ahead of the storms. The southwesterly low-level jet is forecast to gradually weaken through the afternoon as stronger forcing for ascent associated with a large-scale upper trough shifts eastward across the OH/TN Valleys and away from the lower MS Valley. Still, strong northwesterly mid-level flow (50+ kt at 500 mb) will remain over this region, which should support similar values of effective bulk shear. There may be some chance for the bowing cluster to evolve into a broken line of supercells by late morning/early afternoon before the low-level jet weakens substantially. If this occurs, then isolated large hail and perhaps a couple tornadoes would be possible, mainly across parts of eastern AR into northern MS where somewhat greater low-level moisture should be present. Otherwise, mainly an isolated severe hail/wind threat may continue into parts of northern/central AL through the early evening before instability wanes with eastward extent.

Pretty sure this has been updated,i'll double check in a few days,but this should be "JAS"

In Oct the TNI was at -3.0,this is a record,the closest it's been to Oct was back into 2004 when it was -2.7.If i was to draw any analog year for winter,next year, id start with the 2005 winter just because the ENSO could very well match up with this being with 2004-2005,that would be a starting point anyways https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/Data/tni.long.data

We shall see.Today, there looks to be a ERW moving along the IDL with Kelvin so this is what the RMM'S show the MJO INTO 5 today and should be the next couple days.There seems to be all kinds of mixed signals afterwards.There still looks as there will be some better blocking into the GOA in the Mid to long range,this should choke off the theta into the Valley during this time unless something changes so more than likely as the theta returns it should be more into the plains as the Mid level heights should rise into the Valley Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Sun Mar 08 2020 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range model output continues to indicate that mid/upper flow over the eastern Pacific may continue to evolve toward a more prominent blocking regime late this coming work week through next weekend. This may include the development of large-scale troughing and an embedded close low, which could eventually encompass much of the West. As this commences, the remnants of a preceding mid-level closed low may finally emerge from the Southwest. After accelerating east-northeast of the southern Rockies on Friday, guidance suggests that the lead perturbation will undergo considerable weakening and deformation within a confluent regime to the north of prominent subtropical ridging centered over the southern Gulf basin. Furthermore, it appears that this may be preceded by a substantive reinforcing cold intrusion across much of the nation to the east of the Rockies. And any subsequent wave development along the front across the southern tier of the U.S. is currently forecast to remain weak. While destabilization along and particularly above/to the cool side of the surface front may contribute to considerable thunderstorm development during the latter half of the period, severe weather potential currently appears best characterized as "low", with probabilities less than 15 percent. However, it is still possible that this could change in later outlooks much closer to this time period. ..Kerr.. 03/08/2020

NMME'S

Chance of some strong storms. upcoming next week with a trough just passing East Asia recently.Have to see how teleconnections play out past the middle of the month.Euro and GFS tho seem to be hinting at building blocking into the GOA and even as strong as a Rex block,this would/could promote a -AO.Regardless, east Asia is fixing to get active upcoming

https://www.wbir.com/article/weather/77-people-reported-missing-in-putnam-co-after-overnight-tornado/51-ef7324c7-c380-4a56-8f07-0c760cec3de1

Probably right,its just the angle she took the pic.

https://thebig98.iheart.com/content/2020-03-03-nashville-tornado-hurls-car-into-3rd-floor-of-apartment-building/?keyid=WSIX&sc=editorial&pname=local_social&fbclid=IwAR0HgORxm8GrfO1c6LQcDIZxQNApsLmOb3JlqXVrysv9ZBak0jQjlUe1TyY

Channel 2 said a car was parked in a 3rd floor apartment.Had to be at least a EF3.Death toll is up to 10 and people are still missing

https://www.wkrn.com/video/video-drone-footage-of-east-nashville-storm-damage/4373780/

Had to be a EF2 AT LEAST,just saw the news it destroyed a 2-story brick building downtown

OHX has debris falling

Fixing to hit OHX

Just hit downtown Nashville

Headed towards downtown Nashville,if it keeps up

Finally something broke in Tn

Not much change this update,subsurface has warmed and cooled in spots

If we can get anything to pop during this time,could see some big baseballs tossed at above.PW's look mehish until any cap breaks like said above,looks more into the evening to early morning in our parts after the cap breaks,any strong updraft you might want to make sure your vehicle is covered up .. Of course this can change,plus a tornado and wind risk with any severe Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1202 AM CST Mon Mar 02 2020 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST ARKANSAS EASTWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AREA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from portions of the Mid-South region southwestward across parts of northeastern Texas Monday afternoon through early Tuesday morning. ...Synopsis... As northern-stream upper troughing expands/shifts gradually eastward across central and eastern Canada and the north-central U.S., an upper low initially off the southern California coast is progged to turn eastward with time, reaching northwestern Mexico later in the period. Meanwhile, fast/low-amplitude westerly to west-southwesterly flow will prevail over the south-central and southeastern portions of the country. At the surface, a cold front initially stretching from the Upper Great Lakes region southwestward to western Texas will advance eastward with time, reaching a position from New England to southeast Texas by the end of the period. This front will focus a zone of convection from parts of the Ohio and Tennessee valleys into northeastern Texas from this afternoon into the overnight hours. ...Mid South region southwestward across northeastern Texas... As the cold front advances gradually southeastward across Kentucky/Tennessee/Arkansas/northeastern Texas through the day, an initial area of warm-advection-induced storms will spread eastward through the Mid South region. In its wake, weak destabilization is expected ahead of the front, though capping will hinder new storm development into the afternoon hours. Substantial model differences exist with respect to the degree of cap erosion, with HRRR and NAM forecasts the most aggressive models with elimination of capping by late afternoon, resulting in an uncapped/amply unstable environment. Given favorable shear across the region, this thermodynamic evolution would support at least isolated supercell storms, and attendant severe risk -- particularly in the form of hail. Other/isolated storms are more consistently forecast by the models southwestward across Arkansas and northern Louisiana and portions of northeastern Texas. Based on the consistently more bullish output from NAM/HRRR runs, an upgrade to slight risk appears reasonable. Primary risk appears to be hail, but locally damaging winds and even a couple of tornadoes would be possible should capping erode to the degree depicted in some guidance. Primary risk appears to exist across the western Tennessee vicinity in roughly the 23 to 04Z time frame. Marginal risk is also being extended as far southwestward as northeast Texas, where a few stronger storms appear likely to initiate during the afternoon. ..Goss/Nauslar.. 03/02/2020

Seems like the next few days Kelvin waves will go through East Asia.Could see a coupe troughs going through this area in the long range.MJO signal looks weak into the long range,if the CFS is right there might even be a Kelvin or Equatorial Kelvin wave that should excite the subtropical jet.ERTAF has started up again and shows the same thing into week 2 of March

Least there is a chance of some strong storms.The heavy rains the models were advertising has shifted even further south today thanks to the cut-off H5 out west which today basically don't get kicked out until Tuesday per Euro.Should be at least of a chance for the west,this is where the best instability is showing right now

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CST Sat Feb 29 2020 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Mid-South from Monday afternoon to early Tuesday morning. ...Synopsis... Strong upper low expected to be centered over southern CA early Monday morning is forecast to gradually shift southeastward throughout the day, eventually becoming centered over northwest Mexico by early Tuesday morning. Downstream of this low, southwesterly flow aloft is expected to expand eastward through the Mid MS Valley and Southeast, increasing in speed as the upper pattern becomes more confluent. At the surface, a cold front will likely extend from a low near the central MO/IL border southwestward to another low over central OK on Monday morning. Overall frontal position will slowly sag southeastward, impeded by the persistent moist southerly flow south of the front. Continued moisture advection is forecast to bring low 60s dewpoints through much of the Mid-South by Monday evening. Thunderstorms are anticipated along front from Monday evening into early Tuesday morning, with the highest coverage expected across northeast AR, northern MS, western/middle TN, and southwest KY. ...Mid-South... Moist return flow is expected to bring low 60s dewpoints into northeast AR/western TN ahead of the approaching cold front. This low-level moisture coupled with steep mid-level lapse rates will result in modest instability amidst low convective inhibition. Strong westerly flow aloft will also be in place, contributing to strong vertical shear (i.e. 0-6 km bulk shear around 50-60 kt). The result will be an environment supportive of rotating thunderstorms if storms can develop and persist. Large-scale forcing for ascent will be largely negligible but the surface low initial over central OK is expected to move northeastward along the front, likely providing the mesoscale ascent needed for convective initiation. Primary threat with these storms will be damaging wind gusts and hail but there will likely be enough low-level shear for a low probability threat of tornadoes. ..Mosier.. 02/29/2020

You are higher than most people.I looked at some spots just now east and seen the winds were blowing more from the SW,seems odd,The 925's to the south per HRRR would be tough to support snow anyways other than higher elevations per HRRR that far south