jaxjagman

Meant to add this pic also

My problem is,is with the MJO into the warm phases.When the MJO gets into these warm phases this time of season it starts to build a SER into our parts.This trough seemingly is going to depend on how strong the SER is plus how strong will this trough will be to combat the height falls.JMO

Also without any -AO being shown is this severe or actually winter or more or less like the system we just saw recently,if you want winter the MJO is still not your friend.,,IMHO

If you look at the pattern upcoming.You have a trough going through East China into Korea,but this is still in the long range so much can change.This might be one of the strongest signals we've seen out of this region all WINTER year,for a change anyways right now we don't see ridging.By the looks right now anyways for a change the GEFS shows the pna going positive basically right now past the middle of the month.So this at least should be some sort of trough in the east,around the 25th give or take

Impressive Huntsville ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: MDQ LAT= 34.87 LON= -86.55 ELE= 755 18Z FEB09 6 HR 6 HR FROZN TOTAL SFC 2 M 1000 1000 QPF CVP PCP QPF PCP TMP 500 850 (IN) (IN) (IN) (IN) TYPES (C) THK THK SUN 18Z 09-FEB 13.4 551 134 MON 00Z 10-FEB 0.00 11.3 554 135 MON 06Z 10-FEB 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.01 9.2 556 135 MON 12Z 10-FEB 0.14 0.11 0.00 0.16 8.1 557 135 MON 18Z 10-FEB 0.74 0.53 0.00 0.89 12.1 560 136 TUE 00Z 11-FEB 0.99 0.33 0.00 1.88 14.3 562 138 TUE 06Z 11-FEB 0.68 0.09 0.00 2.56 14.9 563 137 TUE 12Z 11-FEB 1.37 0.14 0.00 3.93 13.6 564 137 TUE 18Z 11-FEB 0.48 0.02 0.00 4.41 14.0 559 135 WED 00Z 12-FEB 0.01 0.00 0.00 4.42 11.5 558 135 WED 06Z 12-FEB 0.10 0.00 0.00 4.53 6.8 558 134 WED 12Z 12-FEB 0.11 0.00 0.00 4.63 7.8 560 135 WED 18Z 12-FEB 0.05 0.00 0.00 4.68 14.4 564 137 THU 00Z 13-FEB 0.03 0.01 0.00 4.71 18.3 567 139 THU 06Z 13-FEB 0.02 0.01 0.00 4.73 19.0 567 139 THU 12Z 13-FEB 1.17 0.11 0.00 5.90 11.0 561 136 Cha ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: CHA LAT= 35.03 LON= -85.20 ELE= 689 18Z FEB09 6 HR 6 HR FROZN TOTAL SFC 2 M 1000 1000 QPF CVP PCP QPF PCP TMP 500 850 (IN) (IN) (IN) (IN) TYPES (C) THK THK SUN 18Z 09-FEB 10.0 549 133 MON 00Z 10-FEB 0.00 7.6 553 134 MON 06Z 10-FEB 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.4 554 134 MON 12Z 10-FEB 0.06 0.05 0.00 0.06 6.1 556 134 MON 18Z 10-FEB 0.46 0.17 0.00 0.52 9.6 558 135 TUE 00Z 11-FEB 0.79 0.41 0.00 1.31 11.4 560 137 TUE 06Z 11-FEB 0.93 0.10 0.00 2.24 13.2 562 137 TUE 12Z 11-FEB 1.68 0.15 0.00 3.92 14.0 562 137 TUE 18Z 11-FEB 1.03 0.07 0.00 4.95 17.4 561 137 WED 00Z 12-FEB 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.95 12.5 558 135 WED 06Z 12-FEB 0.06 0.00 0.00 5.01 8.4 558 134 WED 12Z 12-FEB 0.08 0.00 0.00 5.09 7.4 560 135 WED 18Z 12-FEB 0.04 0.00 0.00 5.13 12.7 563 136 THU 00Z 13-FEB 0.06 0.03 0.00 5.19 15.2 565 138 THU 06Z 13-FEB 0.01 0.00 0.00 5.20 17.7 566 138 THU 12Z 13-FEB 0.25 0.05 0.00 5.45 16.9 565 138

Seemingly NCAR and the CFS shows a resurgent ENSO upcoming which seems quite possible while the others don't.Oddly,they show the strongest Nina upcoming.

ENSO upcoming is going to be a punching bag east of the IDL from ERW,KW and MJO.Plus signs of a possible strong WWB upcoming

The phases of the MJO in Feb

Starting to look like the GEFS has been right all along with the MJO

Guess the Euro just shot that down...lol

Seems possible and very well could be but the downfall to me is if there is going to be a transition into a LaNina and what and how strong it does end up to be.Last season we we started to see the surgence of a Nino,this year could be reversed,

What the Euro shows today and who know if it's going to be right,would be a band of heavy rain from frontogenesis in our parts.I wouldnt focus on one spot myself right now and plus where is the convection if any?I'm just showing what it could be look like.I still think the bigger rain maker is coming later than sooner.

You can always look into East Asia for at least some pattern,tho this depends on how teleconnections work out,But you can see a trough moving through East China and ridging building on east and west day 3.and then by day 10 you could start to see a trough coming out the west in NA with ridging east and west if you examine the 5H's.Certainly don't work out everytime but it's a good tool to use

Long range both the Euro and GFS shows a standing tall upper level ridge in the east,have to wait and see but both the Euro and GFS are hinting at this other than timing, but the synoptics look quite similar to the past event with the possible entrance of the 300mb jet 120-140kts this would strenghten the LLShear and be quite another flood potential event.

You'd rather have a defined signal outside the COD.Right now to me id rather have the Euro to be right,JMO EDIT:Trouble typing this morning..lol

Looks more active east of the IDL.The Euro even shows it getting more into the WP and even hints at it going into the WH after it goes back into the COD

NMME'S are rolling out,they haven't updated all the way,you have to click on the image to get the right update or you'll be loooking at the old one right now https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/

Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 308 AM EST Sat Feb 08 2020 Day 3 Valid 12Z Mon Feb 10 2020 - 12Z Tue Feb 11 2020 ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EXTENDING FROM LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE LOWER TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...Lower Mississippi Valley across the Lower Tennessee Valley into the Southern Appalachians... Strong short wave energy closes off as it drops across Southern CA to a position off the northern Baja Peninsula by the end of Day 3. Short wave energy ejected from the closed low rides along a slow moving front extending from the Southern Appalachians into the Lower MS Valley, providing synoptic scale ascent for heavy rainfall over areas that received flooding in the recent past. There is a good model agreement with the overall setup, increasing confidence in an enhanced flash flood threat in this area. As the closed mid level low settles just off the Southern CA coast during the second half of Day 3, the west southwest mid level flow becomes increasingly parallel to a slow moving front extending from the Mid Atlantic Coast to the western Gulf of Mexico. Ahead of the boundary, a 45/55 knot low level west southwest flow sends 1.50 inch precipitable water air (which is between two and three standard deviations above the mean) along the front, peaking after 11/00z. Within the moisture plume, model soundings showed 500/1000 J/KG of MUCAPE extending from eastern LA into west central GA. The combination of moisture and instability should be sufficient to support low topped convection along the front. Convection is possible at the beginning of the period across MS ahead of the initial short wave energy, extending into northern AL into the Southern Appalachians during the afternoon. The low topped storms are expected to produce heavy rainfall over areas that saw flooding with the last round of heavy rain earlier in the week. After a possible lull during the evening hours, the next area of convection develops along the front across AR into central MS. During this time, difluence increases over the front in the presence of a dual jet structure extending the Lower MS into New England, which should allow an areal coverage in heavy rain. As the front drops slowly southeast during the late evening and overnight, cells are expected to track from southwest northeast along the front, producing training along the front from central MS into northern GA and upstate SC. Hourly rainfall rates during this time could exceed an inch, especially where training occurs. There is a strong model signal for 2.00/4.00+ inches of rainfall extending along the front, with the highest amounts extending from central AL into far northern LA, closest to the best instability axis. Over the Southern Appalachians into northern AL, three hour flash flood guidance values are as low as 1.00/1.50 inches, as these areas received more than 300 percent of normal rainfall in the past week. There are still rivers in flood here, with soils still nearly saturated. Though rainfall amounts here are lower than further southwest, the impact here could be greater. After collaborating with the WFOs MRX/FFC/GSP, a Moderate Risk was placed here for Day 3. Further southwest, extending from northern Al into central MS, the antecedent conditions are not quite as wet, with the bulk of the heaviest rain with the last event occurring further northeast. However, the model signal here is stronger for 3.00/4.00+ inches of rainfall with the convection, lying closer to the best instability. Based on this, and after collaborating with WFOs BMX/JAN/MEG, the Moderate Risk was extended across northern AL into central MS for Day 3. Hayes

Don't mean to take away yalls winter talk in the East.But looking at the upcoming pattern seems like another potential robust KW might pass through just like the last one towards the middle of the month,maybe we can get another shot of winter if we don't drown.The MJO seriously looks like it's going to get stuck around East of the IDL,and should go back into COD unlike what the GEFS is showing

Some big flakes falling now,just hit 32 and its trying to stick on my deck

Lt snow here now...yeaaaaaaa

My XFINITY has been down finally back up and working..woohoo National Weather Service Nashville TN 712 PM CST Thu Feb 6 2020 .UPDATE... FOR EVENING DISCUSSION. && .DISCUSSION... Radar se mosaic showing rainfall filling in to our west south and east. Across our area, patchy drizzle is ongoing with reports of the changeover to light snow in the Clarksville and Dover areas. Latest OHX sounding indicated a freezing level around 900 ft with a 1 to 2 thousand foot layer above that where the sounding was isothermal, perhaps a touch above 0c. Overall, this is slightly cooler than expected and could indicate that the changeover to snow may be an hour or two earlier than previously thought. Models all in agreement with a period of deep moisture overnight. So, snowfall is looking a little more likely. Ground temperatures however are quite warm and much of the potential accum will be negated due to that fact. For the update will increase pops by about 10-20 percent across the area. May need to edge accums up a bit but will hold off for now due to the warm ground uncertainty. Otw, remainder of fcst is in good shape.

MJO and KW like you said

Over 3" for you ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: CHA LAT= 35.03 LON= -85.20 ELE= 689 12Z FEB04 2 M 850 1000 FZING SFC SFC 6 HR SNCVR TMP TMP 850 HGT WIND PCP QPF LIQ (C) (C) THK (FT) (KTS) TYPES (IN) (IN) TUE 12Z 04-FEB 11.8 11.1 136 10758 21007 TUE 18Z 04-FEB 14.3 9.8 136 10518 19007 WED 00Z 05-FEB 14.8 10.0 137 10805 18007 0.06 WED 06Z 05-FEB 15.1 11.4 137 10955 19008 0.11 WED 12Z 05-FEB 15.0 12.0 137 10344 19005 0.23 WED 18Z 05-FEB 16.9 11.4 137 10166 18006 0.43 THU 00Z 06-FEB 16.3 11.9 138 10356 17007 0.23 THU 06Z 06-FEB 16.7 12.7 138 11091 18011 0.35 THU 12Z 06-FEB 16.5 12.2 138 9869 19007 0.25 THU 18Z 06-FEB 13.7 9.2 136 9821 29005 0.17 FRI 00Z 07-FEB 11.0 5.6 135 7743 26005 0.20 FRI 06Z 07-FEB 6.2 -2.5 131 2167 28009 0.02 FRI 12Z 07-FEB 2.6 -6.6 130 849 27008 0.01 FRI 18Z 07-FEB 4.9 -6.8 130 1237 27010 0.00 SAT 00Z 08-FEB 3.2 -4.3 131 2091 30003 0.00 SAT 06Z 08-FEB 0.9 -1.0 131 2833 17003 0.00 SAT 12Z 08-FEB 2.3 0.3 131 3925 15005 0.00 SAT 18Z 08-FEB 2.4 -0.9 130 1937 17007 0.42 SUN 00Z 09-FEB 3.8 -2.7 131 2454 25002 0.14 SUN 06Z 09-FEB 0.5 -4.0 130 1776 30003 0.00 SUN 12Z 09-FEB -1.0 -0.7 130 7530 02003 0.00