jaxjagman

I dont agree with some of the models as well,there's been some hints of the long range models showing a strong system in the long range,there should be a ridge in the east with a potential building +PNA,in all honest this could be more a severe threat in the long range IMO

The pattern looks really similar to the pattern we seen in mid Jan,but its more hostile this round east of the IDL,this is where after the MJO bombed out into the Maritime in Jan

Have to wait and see where the MJO goes towards the end of the month.There is some signs today the WWB won't be as strong as it has been showing BUT still looks like the next several days east of the IDL will be impacted with all kind of waves the next few days. Prognostic Discussion for Week 3-4 Temperature and Experimental Precipitation Outlooks NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD 300PM EST Fri Feb 14 2020 Week 3-4 Forecast Discussion Valid Sat Feb 29 2020-Fri Mar 13 2020 The incipient global tropical convective pattern is complex, with areas of enhanced convection observed both over the eastern Indian Ocean and near the Date Line. The latest RMM-based MJO index, which serves as a predictor for the Week 3-4 multiple linear regression (MLR) statistical forecast, has responded to the latter convective signal, with a West Pacific (Phase-6) projection. Despite this signal, however, the future evolution of the MJO signal is uncertain, so lagged teleconnections to the extratropics are difficult to discern at this time. A pronounced westerly wind burst is ongoing near the Date Line, and this feature may generate an oceanic Kelvin wave that allows warm water to move eastward over the next month or so. While this activity is unlikely to play a substantial role in the global circulation during the Week 3-4 period, it may play a role in the broader Boreal Spring time frame. Dynamical model 500mb height anomaly forecasts for Week 3-4 do not show a substantial change from the persistent positive AO structure observed since the beginning of the calendar year. The CFS, ECMWF, and JMA all show pronounced ridging over the North Pacific, particularly south of the Aleutians, with below-average heights over the Arctic and extending over Greenland and to some extent over Canada. This pattern suggests that the CONUS would be vulnerable to cold air intrusions, but the positive NAO feature over the North Atlantic would make such outbreaks transient in the East. All three dynamical model systems depict a weakness in the height field over the Southwest, which may provide a conduit for Pacific flow into the U.S., particularly across California. While the CFS shows near- to below-normal heights across most of the CONUS, the ECMWF and JMA maintain a Southeast ridge, which may impact where the focus for enhanced precipitation lies. The Week 3-4 temperature outlook is based primarily on a blend of the CFS, ECMWF, and JMA solutions, with the statistical contribution fairly weak due to competing (and uncertain) signals from the MJO and long term trends. In a pattern shift, above-normal temperatures are forecast across Alaska as ridging builds to the south. Below-normal temperatures are favored across much of the northern tier of the CONUS, with a southward extension to the Central Plains due to the potential for cold air intrusions from Canada. Dynamical models also favor increased chances for below-normal temperatures across New England. Below-normal temperatures are also slightly favored along the West Coast, which may be due to SST influences. With high uncertainty and a transient pattern favored during the period, equal chances for above- and below-normal temperatures are maintained across much of the rest of the CONUS, while above-normal heights favor above-normal temperatures for the Florida Peninsula. The area of highest confidence in the precipitation outlook is Alaska, where dynamical models strongly favor enhanced precipitation across the western half of the State and along the North Slope. Below-median precipitation is forecast for the Alaska Panhandle and Pacific Northwest, while Pacific moisture may result in enhanced precipitation for central and southern California and parts of the Great Basin. Further east, the possibility for cold continental airmass intrusions into the central U.S. favor below-median precipitation for the Plains, Great Lakes, and New England. Across the Southeast, a mean frontal boundary is anticipated to set up, with dynamical models favoring the Tennessee Valley (JMA), Appalachians (ECMWF), or the Southeast Coastal Plain (CFS) for enhanced moisture. Based on these various solutions, a fairly broad area of enhanced probabilities for above-median precipitation were included on this outlook for the Southeastern U.S. SST anomalies remain above-normal in the vicinity of Hawaii, although the magnitude of the anomalies have been gradually decreasing. Dynamical model forecasts, including the Subseasonal Experiment (Sub-X) suite, are mixed, so equal chances for above- and below-normal temperatures are maintained across Hawaii. Dynamical models generally favor enhanced precipitation.

That's probably not exactly true to an extent because this has been one of the strongest +AO ever recorced since 1990 Edit:Nevermind,i didnt know this was last year

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD 0239Z FRI FEB 14 2020 ...UPDATE DATAFLOW PROBLEM WITH WCOSS... IBM and NCO`s Dataflow Team continue to investigate a problem with dataflow to the supercomputers. This is impacting model production and dataflow to various NCEP data feeds and servers, including NOMADS. Users can expect NCEP model delays of 20-40 minutes.

Seemingly,untill the NWS inspects it.Lawrence Co got its 2nd tornado in a week.The first one was a EF-1 that hit downtown Lawrenceburg,luckily that was during the evening or that could have been much worse.Last night one hit towards 5-points.Nashvilles radar seemingly went down as the line got close to us.More than likely as the squall line got to the office on Old Hickory Rd the radar went down for a short time,so there was no alert from this.Luckily no injuries that i'm aware of. https://www.wkrn.com/news/local-news/ema-lawrence-county-hit-again-with-straight-line-winds-possible-tornado/

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0051 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 552 PM EST Wed Feb 12 2020 Areas affected...Portions of the TN & OH Valleys Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 122251Z - 130451Z Summary...A band of heavy rainfall is expected to move across central portions of TN and KY. Hourly rain totals to 1" and local amounts of 2" are expected. Discussion...A developing atmospheric river extending from the Mid-South towards the Ohio River Valley along with increased low level moisture convergence/frontogenesis has led to a band of heavy rainfall producing hourly rain totals to 1" per KY mesonet observations. This band is progressive, though it is moving over and into an area with two week precipitation at 200-300% of average, more to the south across northern AL, which has led to saturated soils. Precipitable water values of 1-1.3" lie here per GPS values. Inflow at 850 hPa is south-southwest at 55-80 knots per VAD wind profiles. MU CAPE is negligible per SPC mesoanalyses. The best guess is that increasing moisture convergence/ frontogenesis has played the main role in hourly rain totals approaching the precipitable water value. The 18z HREF probabilities of 0.5"+ per hour increase to likely as the band moves eastward across central KY and Middle TN with a small percent chance of 1" an hour. KY mesonet obs suggest the HREF probability guidance, as well as WSR 88D hourly rainfall totals, are underperforming here. Local amounts of 2" are possible before the line accelerates as it reaches into eastern KY and eastern TN, which could cause issues over saturated soils and area coal fields. Roth

Jamstec seasonals has a update or upgrade one. Be intersting to see how the ocean does.It shows the SST's cooling into the summer but getting warmer into fall once again SINTEX-F2-3DVAR system (Doi et al. 2017). This system is a upgrade version of the SINTEX-F2 ystem in terms of the ocean initialization. In this system, OGCM SSTs are strongly nudged toward the observations in the coupled run continuously from January 1982, which is similar to the simple SST-nudging scheme used in the F2-system. In addition, 3DVAR correction is conducted every 1st day of each month using subsurface ocean temperature and salinity observation. The set of in situ observations consists of all types of ocean profiling instruments that provide temperature and salinity (when available) from the expandable bathythermographs (XBTs), mooring buoys, sea stations, Argo floats, etc. The details of the 3DVAR scheme used here such as formulation and specification of observation and background error covariances are shown in Storto et al. (2014) You can read all the new updates here

Global Tropics Hazards and Benefits Outlook Discussion Last Updated: 02.11.20 Valid: 02.12.20 - 02.25.20 Investigating the current global tropical circulation reveals a complex perspective that may have lasting implications. Of interest are two eastward-propagating convective envelopes with the first currently over the eastern Indian Ocean and the second near the Date Line. In evaluating 200-hPa velocity potential fields, the latter region can be traced back in time through at least late 2019 with several periods of robust projections onto the RMM index during that interval. The former envelope may be shorter-lived, as it has to deal with the relatively hostile environmental conditions in the wake of the leading envelope to its east. Nevertheless, models differ on their handling of these two centers of action, and how dominant the easternmost feature will be, with the GEFS focusing on the eastern feature while the ECMWF allows the Indian Ocean convective center to linger and slowly drift eastward. Unanimous among the models though, is the forecast of a robust westerly wind burst during the second half of February that is likely to trigger a downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave that reinforces anomalous warm water volume near the Date Line. This bears monitoring for any longer-term implications and any potential El Nino event over the coming months. During the past seven days two tropical cyclones (TC) developed. The first was Tropical Cyclone Damien off the Kimberley Coast of Australia on the 6th, with the system tracking south-southwest before dissipating on the 10th. The second system was TC Uesi which formed in the Coral Sea on the 9th of February. Uesi has slowly tracked southward and is forecast to approach the east coast of Australia late this week before turning toward New Zealand. Areas being monitored for TC potential during the next two weeks include within the South Pacific convergence zone just south of American Samoa (high confidence during Week-1), the Mozambique channel (moderate confidence during Week-1, with development also possible in very early Week-2), or the central portion of the South Indian Ocean (low confidence during Week-1, with no TC shape forecast and instead a moderate confidence of above-normal rains area). The precipitation outlooks during the next two weeks take on somewhat of a character that features a West Pacific MJO (Phase 6 during Week-1, Phase 7 during Week-2) with increased uncertainty over the Indian Ocean with the second eastward moving envelope of enhanced convection and what role it may play amidst what would be conditions that are typically hostile to convective development. Highest confidence for enhanced rains are east of New Guinea with some extension into the South Pacific during both weeks. Confidence is high for anomalous dryness from the Timor Sea through Coral Sea during Week-1, which is replaced by a wetter pattern during Week-2. High confidence also exists for above-normal precipitation for portions of the west coast of South America, tied to sea surface temperature anomalies of 1-2 degrees above-normal combined with onshore flow oriented perpendicular to the Andes. Anomalous ridging over the Northeast Pacific leads to high confidence for continued below-normal precipitation across parts of the western U.S. throughout the outlook, while a tropical moisture feed across Mexico and the Gulf of Mexico into the Lower Mississippi, Tennessee, and Ohio Valleys results in high confidence for above-normal rains during Week-1. Remaining precipitation forecasts are in line with either forecast TC tracks or a consensus of dynamical model guidance between the ECMWF and CFS ensembles.

It's going into 8 for sure by the looks,question would be what does it do after?Should be be a CCKW crossing around the IDL the next couple days along with a ERW,by the looks.This should in turn upwell the warm subsurface SST'S along the IDL and east of it,plus you have a WWB which is already underway along the IDL.

Update prepared by the Climate Prediction Center Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 10 February 2020 • A pair of slow-moving envelopes of enhanced convection exist in the global tropics. The first is presently over the Western Indian Ocean, while the second is over the Maritime Continent. • Model guidance disagrees on which of these will come to dominate, with the GEFS emphasizing the latter center of action, while the ECMWF splits the difference and maintains both features. • Given this complicated perspective, extratropical circulation responses to the MJO are difficult to anticipate at this time. • A noteworthy possibility exists for anomalous low-level westerly winds east of New Guinea associated with the easternmost envelope of enhanced convection to potentially trigger a downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave. This would help to reinforce the volume of warm water available below the surface in the Pacific and possibly fuel an El Niño event.

Meant to add this pic also

My problem is,is with the MJO into the warm phases.When the MJO gets into these warm phases this time of season it starts to build a SER into our parts.This trough seemingly is going to depend on how strong the SER is plus how strong will this trough will be to combat the height falls.JMO

Also without any -AO being shown is this severe or actually winter or more or less like the system we just saw recently,if you want winter the MJO is still not your friend.,,IMHO

If you look at the pattern upcoming.You have a trough going through East China into Korea,but this is still in the long range so much can change.This might be one of the strongest signals we've seen out of this region all WINTER year,for a change anyways right now we don't see ridging.By the looks right now anyways for a change the GEFS shows the pna going positive basically right now past the middle of the month.So this at least should be some sort of trough in the east,around the 25th give or take

Impressive Huntsville ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: MDQ LAT= 34.87 LON= -86.55 ELE= 755 18Z FEB09 6 HR 6 HR FROZN TOTAL SFC 2 M 1000 1000 QPF CVP PCP QPF PCP TMP 500 850 (IN) (IN) (IN) (IN) TYPES (C) THK THK SUN 18Z 09-FEB 13.4 551 134 MON 00Z 10-FEB 0.00 11.3 554 135 MON 06Z 10-FEB 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.01 9.2 556 135 MON 12Z 10-FEB 0.14 0.11 0.00 0.16 8.1 557 135 MON 18Z 10-FEB 0.74 0.53 0.00 0.89 12.1 560 136 TUE 00Z 11-FEB 0.99 0.33 0.00 1.88 14.3 562 138 TUE 06Z 11-FEB 0.68 0.09 0.00 2.56 14.9 563 137 TUE 12Z 11-FEB 1.37 0.14 0.00 3.93 13.6 564 137 TUE 18Z 11-FEB 0.48 0.02 0.00 4.41 14.0 559 135 WED 00Z 12-FEB 0.01 0.00 0.00 4.42 11.5 558 135 WED 06Z 12-FEB 0.10 0.00 0.00 4.53 6.8 558 134 WED 12Z 12-FEB 0.11 0.00 0.00 4.63 7.8 560 135 WED 18Z 12-FEB 0.05 0.00 0.00 4.68 14.4 564 137 THU 00Z 13-FEB 0.03 0.01 0.00 4.71 18.3 567 139 THU 06Z 13-FEB 0.02 0.01 0.00 4.73 19.0 567 139 THU 12Z 13-FEB 1.17 0.11 0.00 5.90 11.0 561 136 Cha ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: CHA LAT= 35.03 LON= -85.20 ELE= 689 18Z FEB09 6 HR 6 HR FROZN TOTAL SFC 2 M 1000 1000 QPF CVP PCP QPF PCP TMP 500 850 (IN) (IN) (IN) (IN) TYPES (C) THK THK SUN 18Z 09-FEB 10.0 549 133 MON 00Z 10-FEB 0.00 7.6 553 134 MON 06Z 10-FEB 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.4 554 134 MON 12Z 10-FEB 0.06 0.05 0.00 0.06 6.1 556 134 MON 18Z 10-FEB 0.46 0.17 0.00 0.52 9.6 558 135 TUE 00Z 11-FEB 0.79 0.41 0.00 1.31 11.4 560 137 TUE 06Z 11-FEB 0.93 0.10 0.00 2.24 13.2 562 137 TUE 12Z 11-FEB 1.68 0.15 0.00 3.92 14.0 562 137 TUE 18Z 11-FEB 1.03 0.07 0.00 4.95 17.4 561 137 WED 00Z 12-FEB 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.95 12.5 558 135 WED 06Z 12-FEB 0.06 0.00 0.00 5.01 8.4 558 134 WED 12Z 12-FEB 0.08 0.00 0.00 5.09 7.4 560 135 WED 18Z 12-FEB 0.04 0.00 0.00 5.13 12.7 563 136 THU 00Z 13-FEB 0.06 0.03 0.00 5.19 15.2 565 138 THU 06Z 13-FEB 0.01 0.00 0.00 5.20 17.7 566 138 THU 12Z 13-FEB 0.25 0.05 0.00 5.45 16.9 565 138

Seemingly NCAR and the CFS shows a resurgent ENSO upcoming which seems quite possible while the others don't.Oddly,they show the strongest Nina upcoming.

ENSO upcoming is going to be a punching bag east of the IDL from ERW,KW and MJO.Plus signs of a possible strong WWB upcoming

The phases of the MJO in Feb

Starting to look like the GEFS has been right all along with the MJO

Guess the Euro just shot that down...lol

Seems possible and very well could be but the downfall to me is if there is going to be a transition into a LaNina and what and how strong it does end up to be.Last season we we started to see the surgence of a Nino,this year could be reversed,

What the Euro shows today and who know if it's going to be right,would be a band of heavy rain from frontogenesis in our parts.I wouldnt focus on one spot myself right now and plus where is the convection if any?I'm just showing what it could be look like.I still think the bigger rain maker is coming later than sooner.

You can always look into East Asia for at least some pattern,tho this depends on how teleconnections work out,But you can see a trough moving through East China and ridging building on east and west day 3.and then by day 10 you could start to see a trough coming out the west in NA with ridging east and west if you examine the 5H's.Certainly don't work out everytime but it's a good tool to use