jaxjagman

Not a great looking pattern upcoming,its still winter right now tho.Control looks about about like what the GFS looks like in the long range today You almost hit it,poor theta with some K-Index and some weak showalter could get some elevated thunder,still looks like a clippper like system behind it that will spit some flakes at us Wednesday,but it dont look as strong today

Better pic,of course this is still basically the long range and either one could be right and of course both could be wrong

The battle is going to be more is,is this more westerly or NW,both the Euro and GFS shows the clipper right now anyways,this is the Euro,meh

Maybe you guys in the east might get something,thats actually a pretty potent clipper being shown.The upslopes east of us here can do wonders at times in the east of us,i know what NE winds do here,over modeled..lol GFS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: TYS LAT= 35.82 LON= -83.98 ELE= 981 00Z FEB22 * - APPROXIMATED 2 M 850 1000 FZING SFC SFC 6 HR SNCVR TMP TMP 850 HGT WIND PCP QPF LIQ (C) (C) THK (FT) (KTS) TYPES (IN) (IN) SAT 00Z 22-FEB 0.9 -3.0 130 2246 03002 0.05 SAT 06Z 22-FEB -0.9 1.2 130 6940 04001 0.00 0.05 SAT 12Z 22-FEB -1.6 0.9 130 6329 06001 0.00 0.05 SAT 18Z 22-FEB 10.5 1.8 132 7193 29002 0.00 0.03 SUN 00Z 23-FEB 4.9 2.6 132 7478 20002 0.00 0.03 SUN 06Z 23-FEB 2.0 2.1 132 7228 18002 0.00 0.03 SUN 12Z 23-FEB 0.6 1.4 131 7772 19002 0.00 0.03 SUN 18Z 23-FEB 10.3 2.0 133 8738 24006 0.00 0.03 MON 00Z 24-FEB 7.8 1.9 133 8099 24006 0.00 0.02 MON 06Z 24-FEB 5.8 1.0 132 8329 22005 RA 0.03 0.02 MON 12Z 24-FEB 4.9 0.5 132 7493 20005 RA 0.10 0.03 MON 18Z 24-FEB 6.3 4.2 133 8461 15004 RA 0.14 0.04 TUE 00Z 25-FEB 7.3 6.3 134 8846 14005 0.16 0.03 TUE 06Z 25-FEB 8.2 7.4 135 8521 13004 RA 0.16 0.03 TUE 12Z 25-FEB 9.3 6.6 135 8288 20003 RA 0.04 0.03 TUE 18Z 25-FEB 16.1 5.4 136 10693 26008 RA 0.02 0.03 WED 00Z 26-FEB 11.5 5.6 135 9933 33003 0.00 0.01 WED 06Z 26-FEB 9.9 4.7 134 8690 35003 0.00 0.01 WED 12Z 26-FEB 8.7 3.7 134 6399 28002 RA 0.00 0.01 WED 18Z 26-FEB 11.2 2.1 134 5754 26006 0.03 0.01 THU 00Z 27-FEB 6.0 -1.9 132 3652 29003 RA 0.09 0.01 THU 06Z 27-FEB 4.5 -2.7 131 3120 27003 RA 0.08 0.01 THU 12Z 27-FEB 0.5 -8.0 129 1354 30007 SN 0.26 0.14 THU 18Z 27-FEB 0.9 -10.4 128 1208 28012 SN 0.08 0.19 FRI 00Z 28-FEB -2.5 -11.8 127 386 28008 0.01 0.18 FRI 06Z 28-FEB -5.1 -12.7 126 0 25006 0.00 0.18 FRI 12Z 28-FEB -5.7 -11.8 126 0 24006 0.00 0.18 FRI 18Z 28-FEB 1.8 -10.2 128 1479 27008 0.00 0.14 SAT 00Z 29-FEB -0.8 -9.6 128 983 27007 0.00 0.14

Yeah the Euro shows a clipper Mid week,we never do any good around here but when it hits the upslopes might be ok with you

All kinds other drivers to look at ,certainly you want a CE.Ninas just like Nino dont always work the same.The IOD, would seem to be right now as a starting point.In the strongest three-+IOD events, the ENSO has always crashed from "OND"the year of the strong IOD event years into the following tri-monthly year "OND" 1995 -2.0...."OND" OF 1994 OF THE ONI STARTED AT +1.0,the following year "OND" was -1,0 1998 -3.9 "OND" OF 1997 OF THE ONI STARTED AT +2.4 the following year "OND" was -1.5 2007 -2.4 "OND" OF 2006 OF THE ONI STARTED AT +0.9 the following year "OND" was -1.5 More study needs/ seems to be needed. The most negative the IOD has been since 1982 happened in 2016 coming off the strongest Nino that ever developed into winter of 2015 that went into a LaNina in winter of 2016,this broke the snow dome here with some parts getting close to if not a foot of snow from one storm.. ENSO can be quite different.Just look at the maps 2010-2011, this was in a resurgent Nina time that collapsed briefly into the sping/summer 2011,But the winter of 2010 was cold but not so in the 2011 winter

Warmed up to 35,as soon as the ratios started to fall the snow melted away quickly,cant even tell it snowed any a couple hours ago

Least we got something,temps are slightly colder than modeled,we just hit 32 http://traffic.brentwoodtn.gov/201153.htm

APEC Update

Finally updated

Yeah definite looks better than yesterday,even the Euro isnt as horrid as it was yesterday with the dry air

Wish they'd update the Pentad,no update in almost two weeks it seems like Update prepared by the Climate Prediction Center Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 17 February 2020 • Enhanced convection over the Western Pacific amplified over the past week, becoming the more dominant center of action in the tropics. Constructive interference from a Kelvin wave moving eastward out of the Indian Ocean aided in this strengthening. Westward propagating Rossby waves and tropical cyclone activity has led to a stall in the eastward propagation of the convective envelope. • Dynamical model guidance indicates that this enhanced convection is likely to decay over the next week, but possibly continue eastward propagation with the weakened signal. The ECMWF and GEFS guidance show differing solutions on the RMM index as we move into week-2; however, both signals are fairly unorganized, diminishing confidence in forecasts for any strong renewed signal for the MJO toward the end of the month. • Growing anomalous low-level westerly winds along the equator in the western Pacific is starting to show impacts on the upper-oceanic heat content anomalies. This could have further implications for the El Niño state if the downwelling continues, increasing the available warm water at depth across the basin.

My thinking if i'm right this 2nd system what the Euro is showing is coming in to fast towards the NW

Long range models shows a trough going through East Asia today and another few days later.long range models don't show much right now with the first system which should reach the Valley around the 24th but show the 2nd system as more dominant,not sure that's going to be right but this is what long range is showing

Even with what the Euro shows a 1047MBHP during this time into IOWA you'd expect some height falls but the raging jet just won't let it happen

700MB are quite juicy,it's when you get to the 850mb it's quite dry

Yeah i mentioned this last night in the winter thread with the through going through Korea,this is the time frame you are showing but we'll have to see how the synoptics work out upcoming

This is where your MJO signal is at right now around the dateline.Noticed the GEFS is showing the EPO flipping to - into the last week of Feb,this should happen as these KW'S pass east of Hawaii basically

The strong +AO in Feb of 1990 it had a neutral ONI like this year kinda speaking.This brought on some sig flooding down south of us and into the SE subforum,then into summer the flooding went into the OV.iF the MJO which we dont know right now gets back strong into 4 once again the chances would seemingly be we will have a chance to see once again see some sig flooding,this also has a chance to be an active severe season

That is a beast of a storm in the North Atlantic to fly recon to see how strong the the ocean winds are https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/ This in turn should really cool down the NA Tripole.if this were into a transition Nina this would be signs of some potential severe outbreaks into the Plains into the Valley in the warm season

I dont agree with some of the models as well,there's been some hints of the long range models showing a strong system in the long range,there should be a ridge in the east with a potential building +PNA,in all honest this could be more a severe threat in the long range IMO

The pattern looks really similar to the pattern we seen in mid Jan,but its more hostile this round east of the IDL,this is where after the MJO bombed out into the Maritime in Jan

Have to wait and see where the MJO goes towards the end of the month.There is some signs today the WWB won't be as strong as it has been showing BUT still looks like the next several days east of the IDL will be impacted with all kind of waves the next few days. Prognostic Discussion for Week 3-4 Temperature and Experimental Precipitation Outlooks NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD 300PM EST Fri Feb 14 2020 Week 3-4 Forecast Discussion Valid Sat Feb 29 2020-Fri Mar 13 2020 The incipient global tropical convective pattern is complex, with areas of enhanced convection observed both over the eastern Indian Ocean and near the Date Line. The latest RMM-based MJO index, which serves as a predictor for the Week 3-4 multiple linear regression (MLR) statistical forecast, has responded to the latter convective signal, with a West Pacific (Phase-6) projection. Despite this signal, however, the future evolution of the MJO signal is uncertain, so lagged teleconnections to the extratropics are difficult to discern at this time. A pronounced westerly wind burst is ongoing near the Date Line, and this feature may generate an oceanic Kelvin wave that allows warm water to move eastward over the next month or so. While this activity is unlikely to play a substantial role in the global circulation during the Week 3-4 period, it may play a role in the broader Boreal Spring time frame. Dynamical model 500mb height anomaly forecasts for Week 3-4 do not show a substantial change from the persistent positive AO structure observed since the beginning of the calendar year. The CFS, ECMWF, and JMA all show pronounced ridging over the North Pacific, particularly south of the Aleutians, with below-average heights over the Arctic and extending over Greenland and to some extent over Canada. This pattern suggests that the CONUS would be vulnerable to cold air intrusions, but the positive NAO feature over the North Atlantic would make such outbreaks transient in the East. All three dynamical model systems depict a weakness in the height field over the Southwest, which may provide a conduit for Pacific flow into the U.S., particularly across California. While the CFS shows near- to below-normal heights across most of the CONUS, the ECMWF and JMA maintain a Southeast ridge, which may impact where the focus for enhanced precipitation lies. The Week 3-4 temperature outlook is based primarily on a blend of the CFS, ECMWF, and JMA solutions, with the statistical contribution fairly weak due to competing (and uncertain) signals from the MJO and long term trends. In a pattern shift, above-normal temperatures are forecast across Alaska as ridging builds to the south. Below-normal temperatures are favored across much of the northern tier of the CONUS, with a southward extension to the Central Plains due to the potential for cold air intrusions from Canada. Dynamical models also favor increased chances for below-normal temperatures across New England. Below-normal temperatures are also slightly favored along the West Coast, which may be due to SST influences. With high uncertainty and a transient pattern favored during the period, equal chances for above- and below-normal temperatures are maintained across much of the rest of the CONUS, while above-normal heights favor above-normal temperatures for the Florida Peninsula. The area of highest confidence in the precipitation outlook is Alaska, where dynamical models strongly favor enhanced precipitation across the western half of the State and along the North Slope. Below-median precipitation is forecast for the Alaska Panhandle and Pacific Northwest, while Pacific moisture may result in enhanced precipitation for central and southern California and parts of the Great Basin. Further east, the possibility for cold continental airmass intrusions into the central U.S. favor below-median precipitation for the Plains, Great Lakes, and New England. Across the Southeast, a mean frontal boundary is anticipated to set up, with dynamical models favoring the Tennessee Valley (JMA), Appalachians (ECMWF), or the Southeast Coastal Plain (CFS) for enhanced moisture. Based on these various solutions, a fairly broad area of enhanced probabilities for above-median precipitation were included on this outlook for the Southeastern U.S. SST anomalies remain above-normal in the vicinity of Hawaii, although the magnitude of the anomalies have been gradually decreasing. Dynamical model forecasts, including the Subseasonal Experiment (Sub-X) suite, are mixed, so equal chances for above- and below-normal temperatures are maintained across Hawaii. Dynamical models generally favor enhanced precipitation.

That's probably not exactly true to an extent because this has been one of the strongest +AO ever recorced since 1990 Edit:Nevermind,i didnt know this was last year

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD 0239Z FRI FEB 14 2020 ...UPDATE DATAFLOW PROBLEM WITH WCOSS... IBM and NCO`s Dataflow Team continue to investigate a problem with dataflow to the supercomputers. This is impacting model production and dataflow to various NCEP data feeds and servers, including NOMADS. Users can expect NCEP model delays of 20-40 minutes.