jaxjagman
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Everything posted by jaxjagman
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Sounds like you are waiting on the apocalypse,sorry couldn't resist,just playing..lol
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Man look at the SSTS off the JAPAN coast,Sea of JAPAN and even Sea of OKHOTSK.Then you factor in the warmer than normal SST'S in he Gulf.Seems prime for a fun severe season,if you like severe.Of course this is only a model in Nov and we are talking April,but still.Troughs galore in the east with this.
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NMME is showing a strong NINA now into winter.APEC is the same its last update a couple weeks ago.We seem to be already at that point right now with the last ENSO update coming in at +1.7 for the week,per CPC. It does not look like the IOD(DMI) is going to disappoint the ENSO.Every year the DMI reaches around +1.4 there has been always been a moderate to strong LaNina into the the following winter,since 1980
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LOL... no doubt about that
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Coldest the subsurface has been yet along with a standing wave west of the IDL and KW ongoing along the IDL,NINA looks pretty healthy .Its still cold in the east,not sure why some of these seasonal models want to kill it off so fast sure some of these models
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Fall/Winter Banter - Football, Basketball, Snowball?
jaxjagman replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Today is fall back,we lose a hour and models are a hour early,wish they would not change this crap and leave time alone -
CFS shows a KW around the IDL today which gets into the GOM and Caribbean into the long range.GFS shows a strong tropical system and even the EURO shows a area of LP today in the GOM.Could get some tropical mischief upcoming.Where it goes and if anything does develop would seem to be a trough going through East Asia the next couple days
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CFS has a fairly strong wind burst into the second week of Nov if it is to be believed right now,something to watch,Subsurface is really cool right now into 3.4.If you are a tropical person you might even watch the GOM and Atlantic as the MJO passes and possibly a KW into Nov.,but that is to far out right now
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Fall/Winter Banter - Football, Basketball, Snowball?
jaxjagman replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Guess its going to be a long college football season huh -
IMME,shows a moderate NINA into March,with a more neutral east,this would be a +TNI for you severe folks into spring
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Fall/Winter Banter - Football, Basketball, Snowball?
jaxjagman replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
LaNina footprints all over it,we get early snow and think its gonna be a great winter,then we get stabbed in the back..lol -
Wild Speculation for Winter 20 -21
jaxjagman replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
I wonder if there is any relationship with the historic Cali fire season this year ?Jeff or any met,anyone?? -
Think one possible scenario would be if this would be a more resurgent NINA into spring,but that is to early to tell.Last one was back into 2010-2011.Something i will be watching the next few months anyways
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Just wanted to say thanks for posting here Fred.Hope you continue to post time to time.Nice to have a met posting in our area
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NMME looks Moderate now into winter.Even the GFDL is finally catching on
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Fall/Winter Banter - Football, Basketball, Snowball?
jaxjagman replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
He was one hell of a guitar player -
APEC shows a moderate NINA if not it's close, now until the first of next year,kind of resembles to an extent the BOM where it peaks at around -1.6 in Dec then trickles upwards
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The one i think you were taking about kind of fizzled out didnt it?Think it's what you were talking about but could be wrong.Looks like a strong one will get underway in the upcoming days tho.
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Fall/Winter Banter - Football, Basketball, Snowball?
jaxjagman replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
This would be cool https://www.theparliamentmagazine.eu/news/article/towards-free-and-open-weather-data-for-all -
Thanks,its going ok,ive been sick the last couple weeks,no COVID just feeling blah,scratchy throat,coughing, sneezing,what ever bug it is.hope i never get it again
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NMME is showing a Modoki moderate Nina in Jan
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CFS shows a robust Rossby Wave moving into the Easten Pac,i can see why the gyre's dont show much of anything right now other than into the Eastern Pac.
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Seems to doing well with even a more suppressed Kelvin Wave moving though
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Not very often into summer you see East Asia correlate very well,but right now it seems to showing this,if its right is another thing.Sure looks like the MJO is finally going to get out of the IO into the Maritime,it sure should be signs past the Mid of August we see more a SER,definite pattern change upcoming,sure hope we dont get into a flash drought
