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jaxjagman

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Everything posted by jaxjagman

  1. jaxjagman
    I wouldnt trust the soundings like John mnetioned,they are way to warm with the 850mb,the problem is the 925MB,levels with a warm nose with winds S/SW
  2. jaxjagman
    Should be about 2500 ft
  3. jaxjagman
    there iis a warm nose into the lower levels,you might be able to over come this with your elevation,for us you want to see this happen in the evening
  4. jaxjagman
    Weather winter song for us in the Valley when we see a chance of snow..lol
  5. jaxjagman
  6. jaxjagman
    Not sure i worded it right,It doesn't mean you can't get cold.I was talking about the jet extension in East Asia.This will cut off the active pattern we've been seeing because troughs will be more or less up north and we will possibly be dealing with some sort of SER.It's really a crappish look IMO
  7. jaxjagman
    If we don't get help somewhere this pattern we are in is fixing to suck IMHO.When the jet retracts back into East Asia this is going to build back the ridge into East Asia and keep troughs from going through,so our active pattern won't be so active,Basically it would look just like the GEFS is showing in the long range
  8. jaxjagman
    Thanks,but you should be here anyways,this is your home..lol
  9. jaxjagman
    If the pattern would teleconnect right,we'd have a potential bowling ball coming though the Valley,but that's a big "if"
  10. jaxjagman
    Still looks like a potential strong storm into the first of the month.You have a Equatorial Rossby Wave running in with a kelvin Wave.
  11. jaxjagman
    Sure looks like it 10mb-100mb,but like always it's the long range
  12. jaxjagman
  13. jaxjagman
  14. jaxjagman
  15. jaxjagman
    More poleward today
  16. jaxjagman
    I use the CPC for the MJO,it usually updates our time just after 8 or some where in that line in the morning,Euro is later on tho https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml
  17. jaxjagman
    Maybe money or rights?Not sure why he'd ommit it.It's a great tool and easy to decipher oceanic waves
  18. jaxjagman
    Just a note you can still get tropical monitoring on NCICS. Ventrice took it off his site for some reason. https://ncics.org/portfolio/monitor/mjo/
  19. jaxjagman
    giphy is the same way,i thought you was using tiny
  20. jaxjagman
    Thought about your pics just now and tinypics are what they are tinypics,i have to enlarge my pics to see them,its no big deal
  21. jaxjagman
    Could be cache?
  22. jaxjagman
    I use google chrome awesome pic,but i can understand how tinypic works
  23. jaxjagman
    Similar pattern it would turn cold with the AK warming by the weeklies,can you make your screen bigger when you post with tinypic?It could make the clarity better?
  24. jaxjagman
    This is the strongest +IOD on record this year since 1982 per SINTEX.In Feb the of 2007 the IOD was still reading + but this is typical of strong IOD events.Every year since 1982 not counting this year there has always been a moderate to strong LaNina the following ,.1995,1997,2007 Unlike the low solar years like this year these IOD events have happened into the mid decades which makes this seem rather unusual to an extent Even with the low solar there has never been a SSW IN 1994-1995 AND 1997-1998.This could have some merit because of a stronger ENSO compared to 2006-2007. In 2006-2007 The ENSO was a border line weak-moderate ElNino winter.But this was the only winter season to actually have a SSW into Feb.It got real cold though in Feb of 2007,there is also signs of a SSW upcoming.Who know at this point,but something to keep an eye on.. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/national/200702
  25. jaxjagman

    ENSO

    jaxjagman replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    Surface has cooled some since the last update in 3.Towards the end of the month into the first of next it looks possibly another KW will get to 3 again,seems possible just as well the MJO could get into 8 unlike what the RMM'S are showing today killing it off in 7.But either way the signal looks weak
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