jaxjagman

LaNina footprints all over it,we get early snow and think its gonna be a great winter,then we get stabbed in the back..lol

I wonder if there is any relationship with the historic Cali fire season this year ?Jeff or any met,anyone??

Think one possible scenario would be if this would be a more resurgent NINA into spring,but that is to early to tell.Last one was back into 2010-2011.Something i will be watching the next few months anyways

Just wanted to say thanks for posting here Fred.Hope you continue to post time to time.Nice to have a met posting in our area

NMME looks Moderate now into winter.Even the GFDL is finally catching on

He was one hell of a guitar player

Thanks,missed this

APEC shows a moderate NINA if not it's close, now until the first of next year,kind of resembles to an extent the BOM where it peaks at around -1.6 in Dec then trickles upwards

The one i think you were taking about kind of fizzled out didnt it?Think it's what you were talking about but could be wrong.Looks like a strong one will get underway in the upcoming days tho.

This would be cool https://www.theparliamentmagazine.eu/news/article/towards-free-and-open-weather-data-for-all

Thanks,its going ok,ive been sick the last couple weeks,no COVID just feeling blah,scratchy throat,coughing, sneezing,what ever bug it is.hope i never get it again

NMME is showing a Modoki moderate Nina in Jan

CFS shows a robust Rossby Wave moving into the Easten Pac,i can see why the gyre's dont show much of anything right now other than into the Eastern Pac.

EWB passing east of the IDL should potentially scatter the warmth in the east.Nina should start to take notice more soon

Sure dont look very active with out much of any Kelvin Waves

MJO could possibly get into the Maritime and more suppressed off the African coast,seems like anything the forms will be home brewed or the tropics will probably be dormant of any tropical genesis into the 2nd week of August and several days after

IMME into fall,its not far off from Jamstec's Oceans posted above ,its

ENSO forecast: Observation shows that a weak La Niña is developing at present. The SINTEX-F predicts that the weak La Niña-like condition will persist in the latter half of this year. Indian Ocean forecast: Observation shows that the tropical Indian Ocean is warmer-than-normal at present. The ensemble meam suggests that the warmer condition will persist in autumn, then will return to a neutral-state from winter. However, there is a large uncertainty in the prediction as some of the members (specially, of the SINTEX-F2-3DVAR system) actually predict a weak negative IOD event in autumn. Regional forecast: On a seasonal scale, the SINTEX-F predicts that most part of the globe will experience a warmer-than-normal condition in boreal autumn, except for southwestern Australia, India, and some parts of northern Africa. In boreal winter, the model also predicts that most part of the globe will experience a warmer-than-normal condition, except for western Brazil, western Australia, India, and some parts of the Indochina Peninsula. As regards to the seasonally averaged rainfall in boreal autumn, a drier-than-normal condition is predicted for some parts of the South American Continent, southern Africa, West Africa, China, some parts of Europe. In contrast, most part of Northern America, Mexico, India, East Africa, Southeast Asia, Philippines, Indonesia, northern Europe, and northern Russia will experience a wetter-than-normal condition. In boreal winter, a wetter-than-normal condition is predicted for northwestern coastal area of Canada, a northern part of the South American Continent, northern Australia, western Europe, Philippines, eastern Indonesia, and Madagascar. In contrast, southern U.S.A., southern part of the South American Continent, central Africa, Spain, Portugal, western Indonesia, eastern China will experience a drier-than-normal condition. The model predicts most part of Japan will experience slightly warmer-than-normal condition in autumn as a seasonal average. In winter, most part of Japan will experience warmer- and drier-than-normal condition.

CFS shows a Kelvin Wave moving across the IDL today,this should be into the Eastern Pac into Wk3 of July then possibly into the Caribbean/Western Atlantic towards the end of the month .Could possibly kick up some TG,something to watch anyways if you are into the tropics. Towards the end of the month, it looks like the westerlies are going to kick in the IO which will in case strenghten the MJO signal into the Western IO (PHASE1).This seemingly right now would/could kick up another KW,tho no signs quite yet.

Thats pretty impressive,it doesnt look like the MJO is going to leave the Western IO for several days,if it does at all

There has been some warming into 3.4,but this should be more from the Kelvin Wave that passed through recently,at least help aide it anyways.

Been some cooling into the subsurface east of the IDL.Some of the seasonals look like a stronger NINA other than the GFDL

Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 426 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2020 Day 2 Valid 12Z Tue Jun 30 2020 - 12Z Wed Jul 01 2020 ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS...AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...2030 UTC Excessive Rainfall Outlook Discussion... Spaghetti plots from the GEFS and SREF point to the potential for rainfall amounts to exceed 3 inches from parts of Iowa into western Kentucky into eastern Tennessee...predominantly from ARW cores. The on-going Slight Risk was pretty well aligned in this corridor, so only changes were made to expand the western boundary based on antecedent conditions from the past week or so as well as anticipated rainfall amounts from today to the beginning of the Day 2 period. Also made some minor adjustments to the southern periphery based on latest model runs. These are fairly modest moves considering the run to run and model to model run consistency...but the numerical guidance tended to be in broad agreement with respect to the magnitude of instability and the amount of precipitable water available and the presence of the dynamics to help force and focus the activity. Not many changes elsewhere. Bann

Been some warming down into the subsurface the past couple weeks along the IDL,even East of it