jaxjagman

Yes,starting today The Cumberland Trail opens from 7AM until sunset

I was thinking about going also but man those parks are gonna be packed

Short range models don't even agree with the synoptic for Sat,whats new Mid week, next week the Euro has a system that goes -ve tilt somewhere around the Cen/Plains.Something to watch anyways at this range. Longer range into May could be a Kelvin passing through,but thats to far out to believe and or timing

Hanks pretty damn brave,Oklahoma yesterday,but some great footage

Slightly different look on tonights runs so far

This was the strongest +IOD on record compared to 1994 and 1997,both those years following in winter 1995 and 1998 made it to a moderate Nina to strong Nina.Even in 2006 which is now the actual 4th most IOD event this went into a strong Nina and is the only IOD event that went into a more resurgent Nina in 2008.So seemingly this could be a more moderate Nina is not out of the question

It's going through Tn on this afternoons run.+ tilt,.looks kinda meh right now unless something changes.Also the Euro shows a potent shortwave around the Gulf Shores early Thursday.Some KI but the better Showalter and Theta is south

Yeah buddy

12Z Euro sped up,quite a bit.Sure it will change once again,pretty volatile pattern right now.

Have to wait and see what the first system does.But both the Euro and GFS is hinting at the trough will go -ve tilt somewhere .Euro looks more into the lower Ms/Valley but the GFS is further east around the Friday time frame.GFS seems to want to make the 2nd system the dominant storm tonight with even very little inversion.One of them is going to fail seemingly,the first storm or the next system into possibly next weekend

So basically you'd rather see the tripole warm and not cool,it has adverse effects https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/JAS-D-11-018.1

Also,if its even right of course at this range this would be seemingly a time where you'd root for the EPO more than anything.Certainly would be a chance of a SER

You'd rather see the N/ATL Tripole warm not cool,depending on other modes this screams +NAO

Region 3 is now the warm spot.The subsurface is now the warmest into 3 and 3,4.Models show a KW moving east of the IDL in a couple days.If the weeklies are right,region 3 will cool towards the middle of next month.

Latest JAMSTEC,into summer

Jamstec is now shifting towards LaNina but would fall back to more neutral into winter.It wasn't even showing a LaNina last update

Subsurface is cooling.Today 4 /3.4 and 3 are around +0.4 and 1.2 is fixing to warm back up.

https://atlas.niu.edu/

Should be an active period coming up,seemingly

MJO is now headed into some favorable phases,when it gets into the eastern IO seems some uncertainty afterwards,CFS seems to want to show the GWO going -ve but still into the COD,but even so the East Asia seems like its going to get active once again.Depending on the teleconnections their could be a system in the long range as as a trough went through the Yellow Sea into S/Korea yesterday,possibly the end of next weekend we might see something.As well you should look at the ENSO,after the MJO, Kelvin and a WWB on going, region 4 might not be the hot spot but east of the IDL might be,and could excite once again the S/Jet even more down the road

With the passing MJO and Kelvin region 4 has cooled and and 3.4 and 3 might finally surpass 4 as the warmer regions upcoming,this is where your warmer subsurface is at right now and 4 continues to get cooler down below

I agree with the pollen,its been brutal

I think the HRRR missed the boat,talk about bad ,can't say much for the other models either.Models are not doing a very good job lately

NMME into fall

Big shift to the west overnight