jaxjagman

Some of NOAA'a sites seem to be down

Its still weak and maybe to late,but a definite QBO switch upcoming

15-0..there i just jinxed us

Yeah i have no doubts there are more EF-4 and probably even more EF5 before hand we just dont know

I see what you are saying,but these were downgraded https://www.weather.gov/ohx/forgottenf5

But this was in Alabama,it's marked on that link i posted above from NOAA

There's only been one confirmed F-5 in Tn since 1950,that was the Lawrenceburg one,now if you want to consider parts of Northern Alabama as parts of the Valley,i'd agree with you.Its really insane tho if you look at North Alabama per capita how many F-5'S they had,that's just crazy https://www.spc.noaa.gov/faq/tornado/f5torns.html

You definite want to keep the GEFS look.Even tho it loses the -NAO it keeps the -EPO with a +PNA starting up still around the 19th-20th,least it's showing consistency

That's the GFS upcoming

I didnt word that right,it was after about 45 min to an hr the convection started after the squall passed.I went back and looked at the K-Index on all the models there shouldn't have beeen much of any post convection,its still lightning and thunder here

Convection of this system seemed to lag behind the main line.We've had thunder now for almost 45 min recently after that main squall passed,every model did a poor job with the mesoscales in our parts

Amazing how cold the GEFS is compared to the GFS,i'm wondering if the last upgrade of the GEFS helped the thermals with the hi-res upgrade?GEFS use to have a warm bias,not to oftern you see it that cold,especiallly here in the long range.But then again,i might have forgotten what cold is anymore..lol

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND CENTRAL GULF STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected to spread across the Mid South and central Gulf States today. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes are possible. Localized damaging-wind threat will be noted with convection across the Ohio Valley and Middle Atlantic. ...Discussion... Intense 500mb speed max is translating through the base of a strong short-wave trough over the southern Plains late this evening. This feature should become negatively tilted during the day as flow increases to near 120kt at 500mb over the OH Valley by early evening. In response to this feature, primary surface low will track along a polar front along the OH River into southeast IN. This should allow modified warm sector to surge ahead of the front into portions of the OH Valley. Even so, forecast soundings north of the TN Valley do not exhibit much instability, and convection that evolves ahead of the strongly-forced short wave should struggle to produce lightning. Will maintain low severe probs for locally damaging winds ahead of the intense speed max. Of more concern will be convection that is ongoing at the start of the period along a strong front near the MS River. Late this evening, a well-organized squall line was advancing east across AR/east TX toward LA. This activity is handled well by 00z model guidance which surges a squall line into western MS by the start of the day1 period. Earlier thoughts regarding this convective scenario remain. Strongly sheared linear MCS is expected to advance across the central Gulf States during the first half of the period. Environmental shear strongly favors supercells but the primary convective mode should be linear along a strongly forced boundary. Damaging winds are the primary threat with this activity, though embedded circulations could pose some tornado threat. It's not entirely clear how much pre-frontal discrete convection will develop due to limited heating. Even so, surface dew points rising into the upper 60s should be adequate for surface-based supercells. Given the forecast shear, tornadoes are certainly possible, especially if discrete convection can develop ahead of the squall line. Downstream across the Middle Atlantic, increasing southerly flow will allow boundary-layer moisture to advance north across the Carolinas into VA where 60s surface dew points are expected during the overnight hours. While warm advection will undoubtedly encourage showers across this region, the primary large-scale forcing will spread across the OH Valley into the northern Middle Atlantic. Forecast soundings suggest modest lapse rates which do not allow for meaningful instability to materialize across this region. Despite the strengthening wind fields, will opt to maintain 5% severe probs due to weaker forcing and meager buoyancy. ..Darrow/Nauslar.. 01/11/2020

Rotation by Fairfeild Bay

Alot of rotation,had to expand the view,they are moving fast..lol

Should maybe be a tornado towards Clinton soon

Maybe that batch in front of the line might get its act together shortly,looks like its formed from a OFB in Cen ARK

Few mesovortices in east Ark,by my scans

Cell north of Waveland

Should have started this earlier.The cell NW of Hagarville has recycled

Only been one EF-5,Lawrenceburg

Tornado on the ground in Arkansas,looks to be headed towards Lamar

Teleconnections are going to start flipping around the 19-20th,about every model shows this.We will seemingly start to get back to a +PNA/-EPO

When ever you see these systems coming out of East China,East China Sea, Yellow Sea and South Korea this is a juicy pattern for the Valley.If everything teleconnects correctly we can score with this pattern or we can get the boats ready.It's beeen awhile since we seen this look in these parts.Look for an active pattern anyways upcoming