jaxjagman

Subsurface is getting colder once again.Even seeing a pool of -4 around region3,to the east there has also been some cooling at the surface lately in the east.

Seems like some signs of a possible resurgent Nina upcoming and also signs it won't be.Some of these models have a warm and cold bias.GFDL seems to be warm while GEOS would keep us in a LaNina the rest of our lives. The last update CPC put out showed the surface continued to warm in the east,but the subsurface got colder around region 3

Snowing now

Ice

Ones by my house are out http://traffic.brentwoodtn.gov/201044.htm

ational Weather Service Nashville TN 1130 AM CST Mon Feb 15 2021 .UPDATE... FOR MORNING DISCUSSION. && .DISCUSSION... Latest model guidance has trended just a little bit colder for the lowest 3000 ft or so per model soundings, which may lean precip types for the western half to a more sleet/snow mix early on. Latest obs and mping reports coming in showing that sleet is the dominant precip type so far, with freezing rain mixing in. With a deeper near surface cold layer, the probability of sleet will increase, but the slightest adjustment of a shallower cold layer will lean the forecast to more freezing rain. The area that is most vulnerable to changes in the shallow cold air will be a swath of the mid state from Lawrence County up to Sumner, and east from Bedford County up to Pickett. That section of the mid state has the greatest model variability in that cold layer depth... if the cold air is shallower, we will be looking at more freezing rain in that area, and ice amounts will increase. If the cold air is deeper, more sleet will be expected with a possible quicker transition to snow later this afternoon. Did not alter snow and ice amounts much from the previous forecast since the obs trends may help tell the tale early this afternoon. 18Z special BNA sounding will also help assess the depth of the cold air and how well the models are handling it at this time. Other than adjusting wx, temps and pops slightly to line up with latest guidance and obs, no major changes to the forecast.

Fixing to get some decent ZR and IP,hope it is more IP

Mesoscale Discussion 0087 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0928 AM CST Mon Feb 15 2021 Areas affected...southeastern Louisiana...eastern Mississippi...western Alabama...middle Tennessee...and central/eastern Kentucky Concerning...Freezing rain Valid 151528Z - 152130Z SUMMARY...A relatively narrow band of freezing rain will persist for several hours across the discussion area. The onset of freezing rain will occur in portions of Tennessee in the next hour or so and in Kentucky after around 18-19Z. DISCUSSION...Recent radar mosaic imagery and observations indicate areas of moderate to occasionally heavy freezing rain along an axis from BTR/HUM to HSV. The precipitation was being enhanced by strong ascent associated with an upstream mid-level wave centered over Oklahoma and Texas. Impressive hourly freezing rain rates have been observed - including 0.11 inch per hour at BTR as of 1453Z. Weak mid-level instability was allowing for localized enhancement of precipitation rates in a few areas due to the convective processes. A few lightning flashes have also been observed across Mississippi. Over time, the band of heavier precipitation will migrate northeastward, with freezing rain becoming increasingly likely across Tennessee and Kentucky. Accumulations of 0.05-0.20 inch per 3 hours are possible (locally heavier near convection). Current observations/models indicate that areas of freezing rain have already begun south/southeast of Nashville, and heavier precipitation will begin in the Nashville area in the next hour or so. 3-6 hours of freezing rain is expected. The onset of heavier freezing rain will spread from southwest to northeast across central/eastern Kentucky beginning after around 18-19Z. The axis of heavier freezing rain will shift eastward out of southeastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi this morning (in the next hour or two), though lighter accumulations of freezing drizzle/rain and sleet may continue throughout the afternoon. ..Cook.. 02/15/2021

Long as i have been living in Tn i have never recalled a system before it gets to the Big bend of Fl eject to Northern Ga that fast Edit:I'm not saying its fast really,but the track is rather unique

Never can have anything simple here.Inverted trough,this could really cut into the snow and be more IP or ZR around our parts

Precip mode isnt doing very good,its not snowing,it's IP,least it is IP here

You should invest in radarscope,its pretty cheap,i have grlevel 2 also but that is expensive

Where are you at anyways?You mentioned Clarksville but your sig says Smyrna? Edit:Nevermind,i understand now after reading it over

Davidson Co., won't get into the political aspect of Cooper,but that should give you a hint.Glad i live in Williamson

Yeah no doubt,looks like we might get a break then another round is coming in from the SW

yes

Snow never was suppose to start until the afternoon,ip and zr until then

I thoght it was snowing also when i just went outside not much sleet no more, more ZR

Ice http://traffic.brentwoodtn.gov/201113.htm

Nashville is close to another big ice storm ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BNA LAT= 36.12 LON= -86.68 ELE= 591 18Z FEB14 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 (C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK SUN 18Z 14-FEB -2.9 0.1 1025 69 48 563 544 MON 00Z 15-FEB -2.1 1.4 1024 71 94 563 544 MON 06Z 15-FEB -3.2 2.6 1023 95 97 0.10 562 544 MON 12Z 15-FEB -3.7 2.4 1021 94 96 0.10 561 544 MON 18Z 15-FEB -3.0 0.9 1016 91 100 0.31 559 546 TUE 00Z 16-FEB -4.6 -2.4 1012 89 95 0.45 552 542 TUE 06Z 16-FEB -7.4 -8.0 1015 85 31 0.06 545 534 TUE 12Z 16-FEB -9.4 -11.9 1020 80 66 0.01 541 526 TUE 18Z 16-FEB -5.7 -11.6 1023 60 36 0.00 547 529 WED 00Z 17-FEB -9.1 -10.2 1024 71 12 0.00 553 535 WED 06Z 17-FEB -9.8 -4.6 1025 79 38 0.00 557 538 WED 12Z 17-FEB -6.5 -2.7 1026 78 70 0.00 559 539 WED 18Z 17-FEB 1.2 -1.0 1025 50 97 0.00 561 542 THU 00Z 18-FEB 0.7 0.1 1020 66 97 0.00 562 546 THU 06Z 18-FEB 0.2 1.5 1019 96 98 0.56 564 548 THU 12Z 18-FEB 0.8 3.5 1016 94 71 0.28 562 550

Tuesday morn the 18z Euro shows Memphis dipping below 0.with more snow probably and IP mixed in ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: MEM LAT= 35.05 LON= -90.00 ELE= 285 18Z FEB14 2 M 850 1000 FZING SFC SFC 6 HR SNCVR TMP TMP 850 HGT WIND PCP QPF LIQ (C) (C) THK (FT) (KTS) TYPES (IN) (IN) SUN 18Z 14-FEB -8.4 -0.7 126 8605 01011 MON 00Z 15-FEB -6.5 -1.3 127 6829 01009 MON 06Z 15-FEB -8.0 0.1 127 6280 01009 0.10 MON 12Z 15-FEB -10.2 -2.0 126 6592 02011 0.08 MON 18Z 15-FEB -10.7 -4.3 125 0 35010 0.53 TUE 00Z 16-FEB -11.3 -8.6 124 0 33010 0.08 TUE 06Z 16-FEB -13.6 -10.8 123 0 32006 0.00 TUE 12Z 16-FEB -18.1 -13.3 123 0 31004 0.00 TUE 18Z 16-FEB -11.2 -10.6 124 0 32002 0.00 WED 00Z 17-FEB -13.7 -7.2 125 0 34006 0.00 WED 06Z 17-FEB -10.5 -1.3 127 0 07005 0.00 WED 12Z 17-FEB -9.3 -3.0 127 0 04003 0.00 WED 18Z 17-FEB -2.1 -1.4 129 0 03005 0.01 THU 00Z 18-FEB -1.7 -1.1 129 6092 02006 0.21 THU 06Z 18-FEB -2.1 1.2 130 7120 01008 0.12 THU 12Z 18-FEB -2.6 0.2 130 5130 36008 0.01

Yeah,i seen some reports of sleet and snow but most are sleet,radar isnt doing very good

Yeah,HRR showed this going west of Nashville

Yeah,IP here now,hopefully the fools on the road will be safe or t-dot might light up

Maybe fixing to hit some decent IP shortly here