jaxjagman

Potent system,tornadoes in Florida headed towards St.Augustine

Yeah i was telling John yesterday i went over his mountains,started at 27 going up the upslopes when i got to the bottom it was 40 the other side

23 here

Wow !!

Probably better off now going HRRR and RAP, now with this system

Majority have a cut off line close to Nashville,not sure what to expect here

Nashville seems close, right now anyways it could be anything,rain or frozen GFS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: BNA LAT= 36.12 LON= -86.68 ELE= 591 12Z FEB14 * - APPROXIMATED 2 M 850 1000 FZING SFC SFC 6 HR SNCVR TMP TMP 850 HGT WIND PCP QPF LIQ (C) (C) THK (FT) (KTS) TYPES (IN) (IN) SUN 12Z 14-FEB -5.1 0.8 127 9147 00008 0.00 SUN 18Z 14-FEB -0.2 1.5 129 9266 02009 0.00 0.00 MON 00Z 15-FEB -0.2 2.2 129 6685 01008 0.00 0.00 MON 06Z 15-FEB -2.4 3.4 129 7471 01008 IP 0.06 0.04 MON 12Z 15-FEB -3.8 2.1 129 7408 01009 IP 0.06 0.10 MON 18Z 15-FEB -3.8 1.1 129 4614 00009 IP 0.07 0.11 TUE 00Z 16-FEB -5.0 0.1 128 3304 33008 SN 0.53 0.63 TUE 06Z 16-FEB -8.0 -4.9 126 0 31006 SN 0.04 0.66 TUE 12Z 16-FEB -10.9 -11.0 124 0 30005 SN 0.01 0.69 TUE 18Z 16-FEB -6.7 -10.6 125 0 30005 SN 0.01 0.68 WED 00Z 17-FEB -9.0 -8.9 125 0 00004 0.01 0.68 WED 06Z 17-FEB -11.3 -3.9 126 0 02004 0.00 0.68 WED 12Z 17-FEB -8.7 -1.2 127 2025 35003 0.00 0.68 WED 18Z 17-FEB -2.5 0.9 129 5751 06004 SN 0.01 0.63 THU 00Z 18-FEB -1.4 -0.3 130 4861 04004 SN 0.01 0.55 THU 06Z 18-FEB 0.2 0.1 130 4604 06005 0.25 0.59 THU 12Z 18-FEB 1.3 3.9 132 9155 06010 RA 0.91 0.55 THU 18Z 18-FEB 0.8 1.8 131 7835 33009 RA 0.57 0.44 FRI 00Z 19-FEB -3.5 -2.6 128 0 31011 SN 0.07 0.42 FRI 06Z 19-FEB -7.4 -8.4 125 0 30008 SN 0.01 0.44 FRI 12Z 19-FEB -11.3 -9.9 124 0 28007 0.01 0.47 FRI 18Z 19-FEB -5.8 -11.2 125 0 27007 0.00 0.45 SAT 00Z 20-FEB -6.4 -7.9 127 0 25004 0.00 0.43 SAT 06Z 20-FEB -7.9 -5.3 128 0 20005 0.00 0.43 SAT 12Z 20-FEB -7.4 -3.0 129 0 20005 0.00 0.43 SAT 18Z 20-FEB 0.9 -1.5 129 807 24006 0.00 0.33 SUN 00Z 21-FEB 0.3 -0.7 130 2349 29002 0.00 0.24 SUN 06Z 21-FEB 0.3 1.1 130 8274 16002 0.00 0.24 SUN 12Z 21-FEB 0.8 -2.1 131 8378 16005 RA 0.00 0.24

GFS is coming in colder for the next event FS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: MEM LAT= 35.05 LON= -90.00 ELE= 285 12Z FEB14 * - APPROXIMATED 2 M 850 1000 FZING SFC SFC 6 HR SNCVR TMP TMP 850 HGT WIND PCP QPF LIQ (C) (C) THK (FT) (KTS) TYPES (IN) (IN) SUN 12Z 14-FEB -9.2 1.1 126 9239 02011 0.00 SUN 18Z 14-FEB -6.7 -0.2 126 8399 02013 0.00 0.00 MON 00Z 15-FEB -6.5 1.2 127 7000 02012 IP 0.01 0.00 MON 06Z 15-FEB -8.8 1.6 127 6646 01010 IP 0.07 0.07 MON 12Z 15-FEB -10.6 -0.3 126 4275 01014 0.01 0.08 MON 18Z 15-FEB -10.9 -1.9 126 0 36010 SN 0.28 0.31 TUE 00Z 16-FEB -11.3 -6.4 124 0 34010 0.18 0.58 TUE 06Z 16-FEB -13.6 -10.4 123 0 32008 SN 0.00 0.58 TUE 12Z 16-FEB -18.0 -11.9 123 0 33005 0.00 0.58 TUE 18Z 16-FEB -9.5 -9.7 124 0 34004 SN 0.00 0.58 WED 00Z 17-FEB -9.6 -4.4 125 0 03004 0.00 0.58 WED 06Z 17-FEB -9.2 -1.0 127 0 09006 0.00 0.58 WED 12Z 17-FEB -8.6 -3.5 127 0 04004 SN 0.01 0.58 WED 18Z 17-FEB -3.0 -0.3 129 2764 08010 SN 0.07 0.62 THU 00Z 18-FEB -1.8 0.7 130 5192 03009 ZR 0.07 0.63 THU 06Z 18-FEB -1.3 -0.1 130 4139 03009 ZR 0.47 1.15 THU 12Z 18-FEB -1.7 -0.6 130 3277 34009 ZR 0.26 1.22 THU 18Z 18-FEB -1.8 -2.6 128 0 34011 SN 0.20 1.45 FRI 00Z 19-FEB -3.2 -7.1 127 0 32009 SN 0.02 1.46 FRI 06Z 19-FEB -10.0 -6.1 126 0 31007 0.00 1.46 FRI 12Z 19-FEB -14.3 -7.6 126 0 30005 0.00 1.46 FRI 18Z 19-FEB -4.4 -6.5 127 0 25005 0.00 1.46 SAT 00Z 20-FEB -5.3 -3.5 129 0 19005 0.00 1.42 SAT 06Z 20-FEB -7.7 -0.6 130 4368 19006 0.00 1.42 SAT 12Z 20-FEB -8.5 0.8 130 5542 20006 0.00 1.42 SAT 18Z 20-FEB -0.3 1.0 130 6028 21005 0.00 1.31 SUN 00Z 21-FEB 0.6 1.7 131 9424 22005 0.00 1.05 SUN 06Z 21-FEB 1.5 0.0 132 9891 14006 0.00 1.01 SUN 12Z 21-FEB 1.7 0.7 133 10965 16010 0.00 0.89

Brentwood just spent 60k dollars to upgrade the cams and the two close by my house are not even working

Our roads are white,looks mostly drizzle and sn,t-dot already looks like a mess on the road,it's gonna get worse as times goes on

Most of that should be IP where you are at

GFS don't have the qpf's the Euro shows,still the ratios would still be decent FS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: MEM LAT= 35.05 LON= -90.00 ELE= 285 00Z FEB14 * - APPROXIMATED SFC SFC 2 M SFC SFC SFC 6 HR TOTAL MXT MNT TMP DEW WIND PCP QPF CLOUD (F) (F) (F) (F) (KTS) TYPES (IN) (PCT) SUN 00Z 14-FEB 21.3 7.7 00007 SUN 06Z 14-FEB 21.3 18.1 18.1 8.1 02011 0.00 100 SUN 12Z 14-FEB 18.0 14.4 14.4 4.1 02012 0.00 86 SUN 18Z 14-FEB 22.0 14.1 22.0 5.1 02013 0.00 100 MON 00Z 15-FEB 26.2 19.7 19.7 15.4 01013 IP 0.05 85 MON 06Z 15-FEB 19.6 15.2 15.2 11.5 00010 IP 0.12 100 MON 12Z 15-FEB 15.1 11.0 11.1 6.7 36010 SN 0.02 100 MON 18Z 15-FEB 12.8 10.0 12.8 9.9 36010 SN 0.15 100 TUE 00Z 16-FEB 15.1 12.7 12.8 9.7 35010 SN 0.09 100 TUE 06Z 16-FEB 12.6 8.2 8.2 5.0 34007 0.00 90 TUE 12Z 16-FEB 8.2 4.6 4.6 1.2 35006 0.00 97 TUE 18Z 16-FEB 16.0 3.9 16.0 10.9 35005 0.00 97 WED 00Z 17-FEB 19.4 15.6 15.6 13.0 04004 0.00 100 WED 06Z 17-FEB 15.7 12.5 13.3 10.6 07007 0.00 97 WED 12Z 17-FEB 15.4 13.3 14.2 12.0 01004 0.00 100 WED 18Z 17-FEB 24.4 14.2 24.4 22.2 05008 0.01 100 THU 00Z 18-FEB 29.8 24.4 28.9 28.1 06009 SN 0.09 100 THU 06Z 18-FEB 32.4 29.0 32.4 32.3 05007 RA 1.02 100 THU 12Z 18-FEB 34.3 30.6 30.6 29.9 33010 ZR 0.46 100

GFS looked slightly slower,less snow in Memphis but it seemed to be enough to pull the ZR line further east

wow,big shift to the east edit:maybe not

GFS seems slow,the rapid isnt even updating on my site

Looking at some OBS,Memphis was suppose to get down to 19,they are at 16 right now

Wonder how cold it will actually get.Euro showed us getting down to 24 tonight,well that's not going to work out very well,we are sitting at 23 right now

National Weather Service Nashville TN 244 PM CST Sat Feb 13 2021 .DISCUSSION... Ok, here we go getting ready to venture into an upcoming winter wonderland. Forecast is problematic, to say the least. Biggest problem is the precip type. It is certainly going to be sufficiently cold enough to support an all snow event west of middle TN. Across our Plateau, some warmer air may allow rain to occur for an uncertain duration. In between, a mixed bag. Details will follow later in this discussion. Another cold day today. The freezing drizzle has ended and that allowed for the advisory to terminate at 18Z as scheduled. Hrrr does elude toward some patchy drizzle perhaps across eastern zones late tonight. Other models not quite in line so I will include this light precip. On Sunday, temps will again struggle and will only warm into the upper 20s northwest, to the mid 30s along and east of I-65. By late in the afternoon we will begin to see the approaching 1st wave of the winter weather assault. Sunday evening, the wintry precip will move in. Warm noses are indicated with a variety of the models. Thus, sleet and freezing rain will be the main types. Amounts with the 1st wave will not be too heavy. Looks like mostly sleet across the northwest where temps will be colder. to the east and southeast however, we will be looking at between one tenth and two tenths of an inch of ice by midday Monday. On Monday afternoon, the second and much stronger intrusion of wintry precip will arrive. Note that the arctic air at that time will begin to exert more of an influence across all areas west of the Plateau. With the depth of the cold air on the increase, the fcst is looking snowier. Furthermore, with temperatures Monday afternoon and evening ranging between 17F and 22F in our far northwest, ratios of a little greater than 10: 1 can be expected for that area. For that reason, the far northwest snow totals will reach up to 6 inches. I will be reissuing the winter storm watch. However, I will need to segment this product into 3 separate groups to cover the rather wide range in precip type and amounts. Across the Plateau, warmer air aloft will lead to warmer sfc temps for that area. They will still receive some ice and a little snow but amounts over there will be rather low. For the central areas including Nashville, we are looking at snowfall amounts of 3-4 inches and also ice accumulation of one to two tenths of an inch. Note that with this storm system, a high multitude of models support liq qpf amounts of nearly 0.75". Furthermore, this significant qpf amount is supported by a rather large coverage area. This means that this is a rather high confidence event in that our winter warning criteria is nearly a slam dunk. The Plateau is the only area where warning criteria may not be met. You see, that warm nose over the lower elevations, is more in place at the surface for the Plateau counties. The bulk of this winter weather system is low level driven. Again, its a little too soon for the warning, but look for it in the next 12-18 hours or so. Look for the snowfall to decrease in coverage from west to east late monday night and into Tuesday morning, when it finally ends. In the ext fcst, we may have another round of winter weather Wed nt into Thursday. Lots of uncertainty at this point. The track will be critical. Main temperature points worth discussion, teens for lows Tues and Wed. Highs will generally be in the 30s through the extended period.

Nice

Nice

Oddly 1905-1906, even tho people lived in a colder era back then was into a more moderate NINO,PER WEBBERWEATHER,in the 1917-18 winter this was a more moderate NINA into the tri-monthlies "OND". -1.04

Memphis would get totally hammered,like John said the best winter for them in decades ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: MEM LAT= 35.05 LON= -90.00 ELE= 285 12Z FEB13 2 M 850 1000 FZING SFC SFC 6 HR SNCVR TMP TMP 850 HGT WIND PCP QPF LIQ (C) (C) THK (FT) (KTS) TYPES (IN) (IN) SAT 12Z 13-FEB -6.4 3.3 127 9096 00007 SAT 18Z 13-FEB -2.9 -0.1 127 9431 36010 SUN 00Z 14-FEB -2.8 -2.7 127 9395 01008 0.00 SUN 06Z 14-FEB -5.4 -0.2 128 8917 01010 0.00 SUN 12Z 14-FEB -7.4 -0.3 127 9202 02010 0.00 SUN 18Z 14-FEB -1.7 -0.8 127 8068 02012 0.00 MON 00Z 15-FEB -2.8 -0.8 127 5907 36011 0.00 MON 06Z 15-FEB -6.3 -1.4 127 6092 01011 0.06 MON 12Z 15-FEB -9.2 -1.8 126 5509 01012 0.01 MON 18Z 15-FEB -10.8 -3.3 126 0 35010 0.43 TUE 00Z 16-FEB -10.6 -5.9 125 0 35010 0.34 TUE 06Z 16-FEB -11.0 -8.0 124 0 34008 0.02 TUE 12Z 16-FEB -15.1 -10.7 124 0 33005 0.00 TUE 18Z 16-FEB -10.0 -7.5 125 0 35004 0.00 WED 00Z 17-FEB -10.9 -5.1 126 0 36003 0.00 WED 06Z 17-FEB -9.2 -0.7 128 0 07005 0.00 WED 12Z 17-FEB -9.1 -2.0 127 0 04004 0.00 WED 18Z 17-FEB -3.7 -1.1 129 0 05006 0.00 THU 00Z 18-FEB -3.3 -0.3 129 0 02008 0.15 THU 06Z 18-FEB -3.2 -0.8 129 0 02008 0.31 THU 12Z 18-FEB -3.8 0.2 129 6763 00010 0.06 THU 18Z 18-FEB -4.3 -1.1 128 0 35012 0.24 FRI 00Z 19-FEB -3.9 -4.4 127 0 34011 0.14 FRI 06Z 19-FEB -4.6 -6.3 127 0 33008 0.05 FRI 12Z 19-FEB -10.1 -5.5 127 0 32005 0.00

Pretty much could be a nasty ice storm after the Valentines day storm for Nashville,if it is anywhere right,could be just rain also depending on any snow pack ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BNA LAT= 36.12 LON= -86.68 ELE= 591 12Z FEB13 2 M 850 1000 FZING SFC SFC 6 HR SNCVR TMP TMP 850 HGT WIND PCP QPF LIQ (C) (C) THK (FT) (KTS) TYPES (IN) (IN) SAT 12Z 13-FEB -2.5 3.2 129 8608 00006 SAT 18Z 13-FEB 1.1 1.5 129 8409 34006 SUN 00Z 14-FEB 0.5 -1.8 128 9043 34007 0.00 SUN 06Z 14-FEB -3.1 1.0 128 9032 35007 0.00 SUN 12Z 14-FEB -4.5 0.0 128 8667 00007 0.00 SUN 18Z 14-FEB 0.6 -0.4 128 8664 02008 0.00 MON 00Z 15-FEB 0.4 -0.1 129 8340 02007 0.00 MON 06Z 15-FEB -2.7 0.6 128 7222 35007 0.06 MON 12Z 15-FEB -4.1 0.7 128 6999 01007 0.10 MON 18Z 15-FEB -3.0 0.0 128 7030 00006 0.02 TUE 00Z 16-FEB -5.3 0.0 128 3261 02006 0.48 TUE 06Z 16-FEB -7.0 -2.9 127 0 34007 0.22 TUE 12Z 16-FEB -9.2 -8.1 125 0 31005 0.00 TUE 18Z 16-FEB -5.0 -8.0 126 0 30004 0.00 WED 00Z 17-FEB -5.9 -7.8 126 0 32004 0.00 WED 06Z 17-FEB -8.5 -3.1 127 0 03005 0.00 WED 12Z 17-FEB -8.7 -1.7 128 0 01004 0.00 WED 18Z 17-FEB 0.0 0.9 129 5299 06002 0.00 THU 00Z 18-FEB -0.3 0.6 130 4151 35005 0.01 THU 06Z 18-FEB -1.3 -0.1 130 4055 02005 0.20 THU 12Z 18-FEB -0.7 3.0 131 8781 02006 0.57 THU 18Z 18-FEB 0.7 1.8 131 8590 36008 0.25 FRI 00Z 19-FEB -1.0 -0.4 129 3806 33010 0.08 FRI 06Z 19-FEB -4.0 -3.9 127 0 32008 0.04 FRI 12Z 19-FEB -6.4 -6.9 126 0 31008 0.01

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: GLH LAT= 33.48 LON= -90.98 ELE= 131 12Z FEB13 2 M 850 1000 FZING SFC SFC 3/6 SNCVR TMP TMP 850 HGT WIND PCP HR LIQ (C) (C) THK (FT) (KTS) TYPES (IN) (IN) SAT 12Z 13-FEB -4.8 5.5 129 10085 01010 SAT 15Z 13-FEB -3.0 5.1 129 10083 00010 SAT 18Z 13-FEB 0.8 2.7 129 10245 36010 SAT 21Z 13-FEB 2.3 3.7 130 10076 01009 0.00 SUN 00Z 14-FEB 0.4 1.7 129 9670 01010 0.00 SUN 03Z 14-FEB -1.2 1.9 129 9666 03010 0.00 SUN 06Z 14-FEB -2.6 3.3 129 9668 02010 0.00 SUN 09Z 14-FEB -3.1 2.8 129 9697 02010 0.00 SUN 12Z 14-FEB -4.5 2.9 129 8881 02010 0.00 SUN 15Z 14-FEB -3.0 3.0 129 9090 02012 0.00 SUN 18Z 14-FEB -1.0 1.7 129 8932 02011 0.00 SUN 21Z 14-FEB -0.7 1.7 129 8939 01010 0.00 MON 00Z 15-FEB -2.0 1.9 129 8187 36009 0.03 MON 03Z 15-FEB -2.4 1.9 128 7302 00010 0.01 MON 06Z 15-FEB -3.5 3.9 129 7524 02011 0.01 MON 09Z 15-FEB -4.4 2.9 128 8608 01012 0.00 MON 12Z 15-FEB -5.8 -0.1 127 8187 36012 0.08 MON 15Z 15-FEB -6.9 -0.9 127 312 36012 0.30 MON 18Z 15-FEB -8.5 -1.6 127 13 35011 0.76 MON 21Z 15-FEB -8.8 -3.0 126 12 35009 0.16 TUE 00Z 16-FEB -9.1 -4.4 125 0 34009 0.17 ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: GLH LAT= 33.48 LON= -90.98 ELE= 131 12Z FEB13 2 M 2 M 2 M SFC SFC 6 HR FROZN TOTAL MXT MNT TMP DEW WIND QPF PCP CLOUD (F) (F) (F) (F) (KTS) (IN) (IN) (PCT) SAT 12Z 13-FEB 23.3 14.7 01010 56 SAT 18Z 13-FEB 33.2 23.2 33.5 19.2 36010 88 SUN 00Z 14-FEB 36.2 32.9 32.7 14.4 01010 0.00 0.00 98 SUN 06Z 14-FEB 32.7 27.4 27.3 11.2 02010 0.00 0.00 69 SUN 12Z 14-FEB 27.3 24.1 24.0 9.7 02010 0.00 0.00 92 SUN 18Z 14-FEB 30.3 23.6 30.2 14.9 02011 0.00 0.00 100 MON 00Z 15-FEB 31.0 28.5 28.5 15.4 36009 0.03 0.00 100 MON 06Z 15-FEB 28.4 25.8 25.8 16.0 02011 0.01 0.00 99 MON 12Z 15-FEB 25.7 21.6 21.5 16.3 36012 0.08 0.01 100 MON 18Z 15-FEB 21.5 16.7 16.6 12.1 35011 0.76 0.69 99 TUE 00Z 16-FEB 16.7 15.6 15.6 9.8 34009 0.17 0.17 93 TUE 06Z 16-FEB 15.6 12.4 12.2 7.6 34005 0.00 0.00 5 TUE 12Z 16-FEB 12.2 7.7 7.6 3.4 34005 0.00 0.00 0 TUE 18Z 16-FEB 17.4 5.0 17.6 8.0 03004 0.00 0.00 92 WED 00Z 17-FEB 21.9 17.0 16.7 10.7 07004 0.00 0.00 82 WED 06Z 17-FEB 16.8 11.1 11.3 6.6 02004 0.00 0.00 34 WED 12Z 17-FEB 14.0 11.1 14.1 10.2 03005 0.00 0.00 39 WED 18Z 17-FEB 26.9 13.9 27.1 20.2 04008 0.00 0.00 100 THU 00Z 18-FEB 29.9 27.2 28.8 25.4 03010 0.08 0.08 100 THU 06Z 18-FEB 29.0 28.5 28.9 26.8 02011 0.51 0.15 100 THU 12Z 18-FEB 29.4 28.5 28.7 26.2 35010 0.14 0.00 100 THU 18Z 18-FEB 28.7 28.1 28.6 24.5 34011 0.29 0.07 100 FRI 00Z 19-FEB 29.1 28.1 28.6 24.3 33010 0.02 0.02 99 FRI 06Z 19-FEB 28.6 26.6 26.6 22.4 31006 0.02 0.02 7 FRI 12Z 19-FEB 26.6 18.3 18.2 13.8 32006 0.00 0.00 0 FRI 18Z 19-FEB 30.6 16.6 30.6 18.4 13000 0.00 0.00 0 SAT 00Z 20-FEB 34.9 26.7 26.7 21.0 15005 0.00 0.00 0 SAT 06Z 20-FEB 27.7 24.7 24.9 19.2 17006 0.00 0.00 0 SAT 12Z 20-FEB 25.3 24.4 25.4 19.9 17007 0.00 0.00 0