jaxjagman

CFS is showing another EKW the next couple days getting into 1+2,the last one that went through a few days ago has warmed this region up pretty good recently.

Few more days before the upgrade to V16,unless something changes https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/scn_21-20_gfsv16.0_aaa_update.pdf

So what happens during a power outage?

Either CPC just forgot to change the date or a adjustment was made to the last update

I was playing with my new toy above. CFS looks active in the Pacific upcoming.Sure this will change some but the models will probably struggle with the upcoming pattern.GFS is already trying to hint at bulding another Sub-Tropical ridge into the GOM.But this time frame should be our best shot upcoming at some possible severe weather.

1.mp4

SPC today almost shows a basin wide moderate NINA,but the SOI is acting like this is a more ELNino the last few days,been awhile since it went negative,the SOI

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20210228 Fatality in Ga

Talk about a lucky young man https://wreg.com/news/child-shocked-by-power-line-in-nashville-while-playing-barefoot-in-rain/

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 15 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 810 PM EST Sun Feb 28 2021 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Far south-central Kentucky Middle Tennessee * Effective this Sunday evening from 810 PM until 1100 PM EST. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Cluster of strong to severe storms may produce damaging winds and a brief tornado before it weakens later this evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles north and south of a line from 80 miles west of Crossville TN to 20 miles northeast of Crossville TN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

Might have been a tornado,seeing reports of power poles snapped in half

Not sure,i just seen that tea cup hail

How bizarre,it was around this time last year when tonadoes struck

Tornado Watch TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 13 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 220 PM CST SUN FEB 28 2021 TORNADO WATCH 13 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CST FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS TNC005-017-021-023-033-037-039-043-045-047-053-055-069-071-075- 077-079-081-083-085-095-097-099-101-109-113-117-119-125-131-135- 147-157-161-165-167-181-183-187-010400- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0013.210228T2020Z-210301T0400Z/ TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON CARROLL CHEATHAM CHESTER CROCKETT DAVIDSON DECATUR DICKSON DYER FAYETTE GIBSON GILES HARDEMAN HARDIN HAYWOOD HENDERSON HENRY HICKMAN HOUSTON HUMPHREYS LAKE LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LEWIS MADISON MARSHALL MAURY MCNAIRY MONTGOMERY OBION PERRY ROBERTSON SHELBY STEWART SUMNER TIPTON WAYNE WEAKLEY WILLIAMSON $$ ATTN...WFO...LZK...OHX...MEG...LMK...PAH...

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 PM CST Sat Feb 27 2021 Valid 281200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are likely from parts of Texas into Middle Tennessee on Sunday. Damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes should be the main hazards, but some large hail may also occur. ...Synopsis... Several mid-level shortwave troughs are embedded within a larger trough across the central CONUS. A stronger shortwave will move through the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes through the day. A compact shortwave will develop into a closed low across the Southwest throughout the day while several weaker perturbations will move through moderate southwesterly flow extending from the Southern Plains to the Ohio Valley. At the surface, an area of low pressure will begin the day in Iowa before deepening as it moves northeastward into the Great Lakes. As this surface low strengthens, a cold front will sharpen and advance southeastward from the Midwest to the southern Plains. Numerous thunderstorms, some severe, are expected along and ahead of this cold front. ...Southern Plains to the Ohio Valley... A shortwave trough seen on Water Vapor across northern Mexico early this morning will move quickly northeastward through the morning. Weak ascent associated with this mid-level shortwave is expected to overspread a moist and unstable warm sector across north-central/northeast Texas and southeast Oklahoma this morning which will likely initiate scattered convection. Supercells are possible given moderate instability (1000-1500 J/kg), steep mid-level lapse rates (~7.5 C/km) and effective shear around 65 kts. All severe weather hazards will be possible with these early storms. This includes the potential for a tornado or two given the moderate low-level shear. Temperatures ahead of the cold front are expected to increase into the low 70s with dewpoints in the low to mid 60s from the southern Plains as far northeast as southwest Kentucky by mid afternoon. This should yield MLCAPE around 1000 to 1500 J/kg from the southern Plains northeastward to far southern Kentucky. This destabilization of the air mass, combined with the tightening low-level frontal circulation should support widespread storm development along the front by early to mid afternoon. Storms may initially struggle to become severe due to some warmer temperatures near 700mb and the propensity for storms to initially move to the cool side of the boundary and become elevated. However, through time, storms are expected to grow upscale into a forward propagating MCS. This line of storms will likely pose a threat for damaging winds given the strong low-level flow and a broad region of weak to moderate instability downstream. 00Z CAM guidance suggests the most robust linear segments may occur from northeast Arkansas into western Tennessee where height falls and cooling temperatures aloft may assist in stronger updraft development. Low level flow is expected to increase above 40 knots at 0.5 km in this region which will support a greater threat for severe wind and a favorable low-level shear profile for potentially a few tornadoes embedded within the line. By late evening, instability is expected to weaken substantially which will likely support the line weakening by the early overnight hours. ...South Texas... A few storms are expected to form late in the period (after 07Z) near the Edwards Plateau and move eastward. Moderate instability (1500 to 2000 J/kg) is expected in this region with steep mid-level lapse rates around 8 C/km. Supercells will be the likely storm mode given effective shear around 60 to 65 knots. Low level flow will remain quite weak and thus large hail will be the primary threat with this activity. ..Bentley/Darrow.. 02/28/2021

National Weather Service Nashville TN 330 PM CST Sat Feb 27 2021 .DISCUSSION... Went with a blended model solution through next Saturday afternoon. Good initialization and generally good solution agreement. Big player in this potential significant rainfall event unfolding across mid state region through early Monday will still be a surface warm front moving well north of mid state region tonight, shifting heavier rain axis up into Ohio Valley. Trailing this warm front is a cold front that will drop into mid state region later Sunday, and then work south of our area overnight. Late Sunday/Sunday night will be our biggest threat of flooding as most of expected rainfall will come during that period and some river flooding possibly continuing well through next work week. Severe parameters also a bit enhanced for Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening across our area. Afternoon high temps on Sunday expected to sore into mid 70s south with a good amount of instability and favorable lapses rates for strong to severe convection development, especially if rainfall does not move into this portion of mid state region until late afternoon hours allowing for increased atmospheric instability due to enhanced diurnal heating influences. SPC has placed entire mid state region in a marginal risk during Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening time frame. Still looks like all this rain will end as Monday morning hours progress. Past and future QPF have been quite consistent over the previous few model runs giving our area a total rainfall event of 2-4 inches, with isolated 4+ inches possible. Thus a Flood Watch continues from 12Z Sunday through 12Z Monday for most of mid state region expect south central and southeast counties where lesser amounts are expected. This developing weather pattern will result in unseasonably warm lows are tonight as low level warm air advection becomes increasingly established. Lows tonight will actually be higher than seasonal normal high temperatures! Lows tonight will range upper 50s north to lower 60s south. Highs on Sunday will range from upper 60s north to mid 70s south. Lows Sunday night will fall into low to mid 40s as surface frontal passage occurs. As a cold air advection pattern from our north settles into mid state region as Monday progresses, highs will be actually a few degrees cooler than seasonal normal values generally in lower 50s. Following this system, potential of scattered showers will continue across mid state region through Tuesday night as now both latest GFS/ECMWF solutions move a system across mid state region as Tuesday night progresses. Dry conditions should finally prevail across our area Wednesday through Thursday afternoon as upper level ridging influences build across mid state region. Also noted is now better agreement between latest GFS/ECMWF solution as next weekend approaches. However will still maintain forecast consistency with mentioning just a chance of showers across mid state region Thursday night through Friday night. Temperatures are expected to stay around seasonal normal values Tuesday through next Saturday afternoon. Maybe some wintry precipitation mix working in during Tuesday and Wednesday morning hours, but no significant accumulations expected. Mid state continues to get a break from Old Man Winter!

If tomorrow is what some of these short range models are showing, it should be a active day if you like severe. Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CST Sat Feb 27 2021 Valid 281200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible from parts of Texas into the Ohio Valley on Sunday. Damaging wind gusts should be the main hazard, but some hail and a couple tornadoes may also occur. ...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi and Ohio Valleys... Multiple mid-level shortwave troughs will move eastward across the CONUS on Sunday. One such shortwave trough is forecast to advance from the northern Plains and Upper Midwest to the Great Lakes by Sunday evening. Another shortwave trough should develop slowly southeastward from the Great Basin to the Southwest, eventually closing off over AZ/NM late Sunday night. The primary surface low is expected to develop northeastward across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes and into southern Ontario by Sunday evening, in tandem with the previously mentioned shortwave trough. A cold front extending southward from this low should be located over parts of the lower OH Valley into the Mid-South and southern Plains Sunday morning. This cold front will shift slowly southeastward through the period across these regions, and it will likely provide a focus for convection. A fairly broad swath of enhanced mid-level southwesterly winds should overlie the frontal zone, but stronger forcing associated with both shortwave troughs is likely to remain north of the warm sector. Still, forecast soundings from northeast TX into the lower MS Valley/Mid-South and continuing into parts of KY indicate a veering and strengthening wind profile with height through mid levels. Upwards of 50-60+ kt of effective bulk shear appears likely, which is clearly sufficient for organized storms, including supercells. However, two potentially limiting factors remain apparent. One is the orientation of the front nearly parallel with the southwesterly mid-level flow. Tendency may be for storms to form along the front and then get quickly undercut while becoming elevated. The other limitation may be generally weak low/mid-level lapse rates and related modest instability. Even so, the presence of surface dewpoints generally in the 62-68 F range coupled with some diurnal heating south of the front should support MLCAPE around 250-1000 J/kg by Sunday afternoon. Current expectations are for mainly elevated storms to be ongoing across parts of the lower OH Valley Sunday morning in a strong low-level warm advection regime. Additional convective development appears likely along much of the length of the cold front by late Sunday morning or early afternoon. Short bowing line segments may pose an isolated damaging wind threat as they move east-northeastward. Even though low-level flow should tend to veer to southwesterly across much of the warm sector through the day, enough low-level shear may remain to pose a threat for a couple tornadoes with either semi-discrete storms or circulations embedded within the line segments. Eventually, this isolated severe threat should wane across the lower MS Valley and TN Valley Sunday evening as storms become mainly elevated behind the front. Finally, some hail threat may exist with elevated storms both Sunday morning and Sunday night across parts of TX into the ArkLaTex vicinity. Mid-level lapse rates should be modestly steepened across this region in advance of the shortwave trough over the Southwest, and deep-layer shear will likely be rather strong and uni-directional, potentially supporting elevated supercells. ..Gleason.. 02/27/2021

Welcome

Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 325 AM EST Fri Feb 26 2021 Day 1 Valid 12Z Fri Feb 26 2021 - 12Z Sat Feb 27 2021 ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND ADJACENT AREAS... We will maintain a Marginal risk across portions of northern MS/AL/GA into central and eastern TN. Total rainfall amounts, from earlier Thur evening through today, should end up around 2-3" across portions of northern MA/AL/GA. Rainfall rates will never get all that high, given limited instability and quick cell motions. However elevated convective cells will continue to track across the region through the morning hours, with hourly totals locally exceeding 0.5". It is the persistence of these elevated heavy cells moving over the same area that will eventually result in some rainfall totals approaching 3". Overall it looks like rainfall should stay below the 1,3 and 6 hr FFG...thus this mainly just looks to be a soaking rain without much in the way of flood impacts. However, can not rule out some localized, mainly minor, flooding through the morning hours where brief training of the aforementioned elevated convective cells overlaps the increasingly saturated soil conditions. Thus will maintain the Marginal risk across this region. The focus for later tonight into early Saturday shifts northward into central and eastern TN. Model forecasts show a corridor of strong 850mb moisture transport pushing into this region...likely helping expand/intensify shower activity. This intensification of low level inflow also pushes PWs up above the climatological 90th percentile. The main question mark here will be instability. The current model consensus is only a couple hundred J/KG at most...which is likely not enough to get get rates over 0.5" in an hour. However moisture convergence will be quite strong, so it will not take much more instability to start getting rates towards 0.75" in an hour, and the orientation of the moisture convergence axis with the mean flow would support some training. Thus while the most likely solution would suggest rates too low for a flash flood risk, there is at least a small threat of the event overachieving and beginning to approach or locally exceed FFG...which is a bit lower over eastern TN compared to areas upstream to the southwest. We will carry a Marginal risk over this region to account for this threat later tonight into early Saturday. Chenard Day 2 Valid 12Z Sat Feb 27 2021 - 12Z Sun Feb 28 2021 ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY... Shortwaves rounding a mid-level trough axis situated across the central U.S. will interact with a residual surface boundary draped across the region. As a result, moderate to heavy rain will develop along and just north of the boundary which will eventually lift north as a warm front ahead of a developing system to the west. Anticipate this to occur during the latter half of the forecast period as the shortwave approaches Saturday evening coincident with the upper level jet strengthening helping to promote strong divergence aloft. With return flow increasing through the forecast period, precipitable water values will climb to around 1.25-1.5 inches aided by 35-45 knot low level southwesterly flow by 28/06Z. This is 2.5 standard deviations above the mean. With isentropic ascent along/north of the warm front with modest elevated instability (on average 500 J/kg MUCAPE), rain rates will likely exceed 0.75 inches per hour in some locations. In addition, training may occur based on the deep southwesterly mean wind aligning briefly with the propagation vector. This could result in 3 hourly rainfall totals in exceeding of 1.5 inches. While antecedent conditions may illustrate fairly dry conditions as of late, with recent snow melt, soil moisture is slightly above average. Therefore, the aforementioned rain rates may exceed flash flood guidance resulting runoff and thus scattered flash flooding in some locations. As a result, a Slight Risk was introduced along a narrow corridor where the heavy rain rates overlap with higher soil moisture. The inherited Marginal Risk was modified based on the latest model guidance and resultant WPC QPF. Pagano Day 3 Valid 12Z Sun Feb 28 2021 - 12Z Mon Mar 01 2021 ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS A PORTION OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... A trough axis situated across the eastern half of the country will advance south and east through the forecast period. Mid-level shortwaves will continue to round the trough, moving atop a surface boundary/cold front which will act as the focus for multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms across portions of the Deep South and TN Valley. Within the warm sector, strong moisture feed and return flow from the Gulf of Mexico will mean a surge in precipitation water values to over 1.5 inches which is around 2.5 standard deviations above the mean. This moisture transport will be aided by 35-45 knot low level southwesterly winds into a strengthening frontogenetic zone within the right entrance region of an upper level jet streak. Therefore, large scale lift and deep layer moisture will not be limited; though instability does appear modest. So, while key ingredients for heavy rainfall clearly exists, it is the training and back building of moderate to heavy rain along the aforementioned front that could lead to rain rates exceeding flash flood guidance over 1 to 3 hours in some locations. If this occurs over fairly saturated soils, especially given the additional rainfall on Day 1-2, then localized to scattered flash flooding may occur. This signal is also supported by ensemble probabilities and looks to occur Sunday afternoon through the overnight before the front eventually sinks south. Therefore, a broad Marginal Risk area was introduced with a focused Slight Risk area across the TN Valley where heavy rain/rates will overlap with wetter antecedent conditions. Given some lingering model uncertainty, anticipate there will be modifications made to the extent and position of the Slight Risk area. We will continue to monitor the latest model trends and modify accordingly. Pagano

Subsurface is warming in the east recently ,

Welcome

National Weather Service Nashville TN 157 PM CST Thu Feb 25 2021 .DISCUSSION... A little cooler today, but all-in-all, not a half bad day. The sun is out and there`s a little breeze. Can`t complain. However, starting tonight? Let the complaining begin. Light to moderate rains will move into our southern zones around midnight and while they`ll likely garner less than a half inch of rain south of I-40 tonight and tomorrow morning, it`ll be a prelude to what`s coming over the weekend. Models continue to be surprisingly consistent regarding the rainfall potential this weekend. 3 to 5 inch totals have been maintained for several days now. I would argue that with the parameters as they are (anomalously high PW values and some convective potential, along with a stationary boundary across the mid-state), 4 to 6 inches is likely with a few spots getting more than that. Of note, models have shifted the axis of these heavier rains slightly further south, with a focus along and south of I-40 and on the Plateau. This is an expected development as models tend to shift northward or southward with time, but what it means is the exact locations that will get the highest amounts is still yet to be determined. That said, I do believe these numbers are legit. In coordination with surrounding WFOs, with flooding concerns not expected to begin until Sunday, we`ll hold off on issuing any Watch headlines at this time, but the likelihood of them being issued on this shift tomorrow is pretty high. Bottom line, look for periods of heavy rainfall, especially Friday night through Monday morning. Speaking of Friday night, there is some indication that we could have a couple of strong storms across the south. However, I`m not wholly sold on this idea as forecast soundings are completely saturated and CAPE is scarce at best, but there is plenty of shear with which to work and mid-level lapse rates aren`t shabby (6.5-7 deg C). I`ll mention it in the updated HWO this afternoon, but in the grand scheme of things, it`s not the biggest concern this weekend. So, overall flooding concerns? Check. Meager strong storms Friday evening? Check. What`s next? Rivers... Grounds are still relatively saturated after the snow/ice melt from last week. We`ll get them primed more tonight and tomorrow night and then the heavier stuff comes in Saturday night into Sunday. With this progression, I think rivers are going to start becoming a problem Sunday afternoon at the earliest as run-off starts occurring. River Forecast Centers are already indicating that several rivers in Middle TN will be an issue as late as Monday and that`ll likely run into the middle of next week. That said, if you have interests near rivers that are well-known flooders, you`ll want to begin taking necessary precautions soon. In the extended part of the forecast, the Euro continues to show two more systems next week (Tue and Thu) and the GFS is maintaining a dry solution next week. Obviously, this doesn`t lead to much confidence in the extended, but if we do end up with more rain on top of what we get this weekend, we could be looking at prolonged river issues. &&

ational Weather Service Nashville TN 156 PM CST Wed Feb 24 2021 .DISCUSSION... It`s a warm one out there this afternoon, but worry not; we`re nowhere near record values. The record high for today`s date is 81 set waaay back in 2017. Somebody will have to tilt the earth a little more for that to occur today. Other than the warmth, it`s a little breezy and clouds are starting to build in from the northwest. These are associated with the light rain that is expected this evening. Again, not much to get excited about as latest guidance would suggest some will get none and a few will only see a couple hundredths by sunrise. The big story with this forecast package continues to be the heavy rainfall expected this weekend. If there`s any good news, it comes in the form of confidence because models continue to zero in on a 4 to 6 inch solution from Friday until Monday morning. All of this is due to what looks to be a stationary boundary that sets up Friday night and hangs around through the weekend. Multiple shortwaves traverse the boundary as it sits over the mid-state and because of this, we very well could be looking at widespread flooding issues as early as noon on Sunday. PWs continue to be anomalously high for this time of the year (forecast soundings are showing record numbers Saturday night into Sunday) and an impending low- level jet will only work to enhance rainfall rates both Saturday and Sunday. Included in all of this, I`ve maintained a slight chance of thunder starting Friday night and while this will give some a rumble of thunder, any convective enhancement will only fuel rainfall efficiency. I wouldn`t be surprised if we`re talking Flood Watches at this time tomorrow for the weekend. What could end up being a bigger issue is the runoff. Grounds likely won`t absorb all of this rainfall, which will cause quick rises on area rivers and creeks. Forecast ensembles run by our River Forecast Centers are suggesting minor and *possibly* even moderate flooding on a few rivers in Middle TN by Monday. You will need to monitor this closely if you have interests near Middle TN rivers that flood regularly. All of this should come to an end on Monday, however, the Euro continues to show yet another system moving into the area on Tuesday. While the GFS isn`t currently showing this same system, if the Euro verifies, additional flooding could be a concern. For now, enjoy the beautiful day and check back with us over the next 24-48 hours for the latest information regarding this weekend`s heavy rainfall forecast.

I was wondering what happened to you,good to see you back