jaxjagman

This is looking more and more like the 2010-212 resurgent NINA,just going back through the last 30 year cycle.We was really warm in the 2011-12 winter

Chance for some strong storms tomorrow. National Weather Service Nashville TN 325 PM CDT Sat May 8 2021 .DISCUSSION... Consensus blended model forecast used through Monday afternoon. Broke out a late afternoon zone grouping dealing with continued area of showers streaming northwest to southeast across western and southwestern portions of mid state region, This area is expected to shift southeastward as late afternoon hours progress and eventually move out of mid state region before the evening hours begin. Otherwise, not much overall change from previous forecast reasoning. The surface front that is hanging around mid state region will push northward as a warm front into Kentucky overnight. This will cause the mid state to experience much warmer and humid conditions on Sunday. From afternoon through evening hours on Sunday some strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible with strong to damaging winds the main concern. Best chance for strongest convection will be for locations approaching TN River Valley and southwest portions of mid state approaching TN/AL Border region. During this time period also, strong surface pressure gradient influences could cause winds to gust to 25 to 35 MPH at times. Taking a closer look, by the afternoon hours on Sunday, mid state will begin to see some surface instability (>1000 J/kg) accompanied with decent shear and rather strong lapse rates. Instability does still appear to be a limiting factor, but it does look like mid state region will experience just enough instability to support development of some strong to severe thunderstorms. As mentioned above, damaging winds will be the primary concern, but large hail, and with model sounding PWAT`S approaching at or around 1.5 inches, heavy downpours causing localized flooding, especially across locations approaching TN River Valley and southwest portions of mid state region approaching TN/AL border could occur too. Isolated tornado formation certainly can not be ruled out either.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN 452 PM CDT WED MAY 5 2021 ...NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR MAY 4, 2021 SEVERE WEATHER EVENT... .SUMMARY...AT LEAST 11 EF-0 TORNADOES TOUCHED DOWN ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE TUESDAY MORNING, MAY 4TH, CAUSING MOSTLY TREE AND POWERLINE DAMAGE, MINOR ROOF DAMAGE, AND SEVERAL DESTROYED OUTBUILDINGS. NWS NASHVILLE WILL CONTINUE PUTTING THE PIECES TOGETHER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS INCLUDING REFINING DETAILS ON PATH LENGTH AND WIDTH, START/END LOCATIONS, AND TIMES. ALL OF THIS INFORMATION IS VERY PRELIMINARY AND WILL BE CONTINUOUSLY UPDATED. AS OF RIGHT NOW, THIS MAKES 16 TORNADOES TOTAL IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE SO FAR THIS YEAR (INCLUDING ONE EF-0 IN COFFEE COUNTY ON MAY 3RD, ONE EF-0 TORNADO IN CUMBERLAND COUNTY ON APRIL 8, AND AN EF-2/EF-1/EF-0 ON MARCH 25 IN WAYNE, RUTHERFORD, AND WILSON COUNTIES RESPECTIVELY). https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OHX&product=LSR

That town is a tornado magnet

Maybe one fixing to pop around Rural Hill

Could be a EF0 rain wrapped

Miss tornado recycled,dont see a whole lot of rotation but it did a short while ago

There is some weak rotation north of Aberdeen,starting up

Crapped out as it got close to Alabama

Looks like it might have just recycled and getting its act together again

Miss tornado

The strong EKW put a beating with the subsurface in the east,surface is still cool in 1.2.Seems to be signs of another KW towards the middle of May.Seemingly, this could really warm up the surface in the east,kinda like a 1-2 punch with the last EKW,but on the other hand the subsurface is still rather cool in 1.2,guess we will find out soon enough

Yeah with the 3capes > 200,hard to disagree

Shear still looks the question

Euro is still slower with the front than the GFS ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BNA LAT= 36.12 LON= -86.68 ELE= 591 12Z MAY01 2 M SFC SFC 6 HR 6 HR 6 HR 500 1000 TMP DEW CAPE QPF CVP NCP HGT 500 (C) (C) J/KG (IN) (IN) (IN) (DM) THK SAT 12Z 01-MAY 10.1 4.0 0 578 560 SAT 18Z 01-MAY 22.7 3.6 0 579 562 SUN 00Z 02-MAY 19.6 14.1 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 578 566 SUN 06Z 02-MAY 14.1 8.6 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 578 566 SUN 12Z 02-MAY 15.3 7.2 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 576 565 SUN 18Z 02-MAY 25.0 8.1 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 575 566 MON 00Z 03-MAY 19.7 13.4 0 0.01 0.00 0.01 572 566 MON 06Z 03-MAY 17.4 16.1 258 0.07 0.06 0.01 569 565 MON 12Z 03-MAY 18.3 17.8 303 0.22 0.14 0.08 569 565 MON 18Z 03-MAY 23.0 20.4 1914 0.34 0.29 0.05 573 568 TUE 00Z 04-MAY 23.2 20.2 1941 0.09 0.06 0.02 575 571 TUE 06Z 04-MAY 19.2 18.8 1487 0.31 0.25 0.06 577 569 TUE 12Z 04-MAY 18.3 17.9 1547 0.26 0.26 0.00 577 569 TUE 18Z 04-MAY 24.5 20.6 1286 0.38 0.33 0.06 577 571 WED 00Z 05-MAY 21.9 20.1 971 0.02 0.01 0.01 575 570 WED 06Z 05-MAY 19.2 19.0 640 0.85 0.69 0.16 572 567 WED 12Z 05-MAY 13.8 12.9 8 0.05 0.01 0.04 572 562 WED 18Z 05-MAY 18.3 10.3 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 573 560 THU 00Z 06-MAY 16.8 9.4 18 0.00 0.00 0.00 573 559 THU 06Z 06-MAY 10.8 8.0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 572 556 THU 12Z 06-MAY 10.1 6.4 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 571 554 THU 18Z 06-MAY 15.2 4.6 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 567 551 FRI 00Z 07-MAY 13.9 9.4 32 0.00 0.00 0.00 561 547 FRI 06Z 07-MAY 10.0 6.9 1 0.00 0.00 0.00 557 545 FRI 12Z 07-MAY 10.8 8.8 13 0.01 0.01 0.00 553 543 FRI 18Z 07-MAY 13.8 9.7 61 0.15 0.12 0.03 554 544 SAT 00Z 08-MAY 9.7 7.4 13 0.12 0.07 0.06 554 541 SAT 06Z 08-MAY 6.7 3.3 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 553 539 SAT 12Z 08-MAY 5.3 1.6 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 555 539

Critical Angle The "critical angle" is the angle between the storm-relative wind at the surface and the 0-500 m AGL shear vector [(kt) displayed only for areas where the effective inflow base is the ground (SBCAPE 100 J kg-1 or greater, and less than 250 J kg-1 CIN]. A critical angle near 90 degrees infers streamwise vorticity near the ground, which favors stronger cyclonic rotation and dynamically forced ascent closer to the ground in a right-moving supercell (through the effects of tilting and stretching of horizontal vorticity). Critical angles in the range of 45 to 135 degrees suggest near-surface vorticity is more streamwise than crosswise, and values in this range are highlighted by the color fill. Large SRH colocated with a critical angle close to 90 degrees is most favorable for tornadic supercells.

90 is optimal like you said ,it can go lower or higher

LOL..you better not leave us,your opinion means to much here,I've learned alot from you as i am sure many others would vouch my same opinion.

Yeah, supercell

CAM on the GFS would be concerning with nocturnal storms while people are sleeping Monday evening into early morn

GFS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: MEM LAT= 35.05 LON= -90.00 ELE= 285 12Z MAY01 * - APPROXIMATED SFC SFC BNDRY SFC BEST SFC BNDRY 3000M PWW CAPE CAPE LIX LIX CIN CIN HEL (IN) J/KG J/KG (C) (C) J/KG J/KG M2/S2 SAT 12Z 01-MAY 0.7 0 0 13 10 0 0 41 SAT 18Z 01-MAY 0.8 0 0 7 8 0 0 33 SUN 00Z 02-MAY 0.9 3 0 5 6 -22 0 18 SUN 06Z 02-MAY 1.3 0 0 7 6 0 0 35 SUN 12Z 02-MAY 1.5 0 0 8 4 0 0 145 SUN 18Z 02-MAY 1.6 1 22 5 2 0 -1 115 MON 00Z 03-MAY 1.5 2 64 2 0 -20 -19 253 MON 06Z 03-MAY 1.5 4 70 1 0 -81 -20 184 MON 12Z 03-MAY 1.4 441 1115 -2 -5 -161 -20 197 MON 18Z 03-MAY 1.3 1941 1852 -6 -6 -76 -85 244 TUE 00Z 04-MAY 1.3 3229 3206 -10 -10 -50 -52 273 TUE 06Z 04-MAY 1.6 2851 2918 -10 -10 -76 -61 144 TUE 12Z 04-MAY 1.2 138 138 -1 -2 -429 -411 28 TUE 18Z 04-MAY 1.4 1433 1171 -6 -5 -8 -20 143

Hey Chip,when you post a sounding would you please post where the sounding is at,i noticed some people don't know where it's at,i know by the long and lat that is Middle Tn,but some folks that pop in won't have a clue,thanks

Pfizer

NAM could be bullish like normal in this time frame