jaxjagman

Probably have to wait and see,CFS could be wrong

Need the MJO to stay out of the Maritime,don't look like it will happen.Euro has been to strong with it last week into Africa,probably constructive interference from a KW.I wouldn't be surprised if the Euro comes out of the COD the next few days and shows it stronger into the IO,seems to be what the CFS has been showing

You gotta think something is going to happen during this time frame,recurving typhoon and a crashing SOI.But right now it could be anything,could even be severe

Possible "phoon" recurving off of the Japan coast in a few days which would fall in line basically with the timing possibly of those maps

The APCC ENSO Alert suggests “La Niña WATCH”. During September 2021, negative sea surface temperature anomalies were observed over the equatorial Pacific. The Niño3.4 index below -1℃ is expected to gradually increase to -0.24℃ during the forecast period. Based on the running 3-month mean Niño3.4 index, the latest APCC ENSO outlook suggests a 90% chance of La Niña conditions with weak intensity for November 2021 – January 2022, which gradually decreases. Meanwhile, ENSO-neutral conditions are likely to be gradually increasing and then dominant during February – April 2022. Highly probable above normal temperatures are predicted for much of the globe, especially for Eurasia, southern USA, and Argentina for November 2021 – April 2022. A tendency for above normal precipitation is predicted for eastern Russia, some regions of Canada, and the Arctic for November 2021 – April 2022.

Turned my heater on for a bit to get the chill out this morning

We'll see, this is looking more like a more modoki, west based NINA than anything,its even cooling into the subsurface closer to the IDL.After the next KW moving through this week the MJO signal looks mute right now until it strenghtens into the IO towards the end of the month.Least that is what i see,but this still looks stronger than 2011-2012..IMHO.Think if i were a betting man from TX/LA/AR into the OV could see all kind of extremes,cutter heaven.But that is JMHO.

Pretty much all agree a moderate NINA peaking around the new year

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN 512 PM CDT THU OCT 07 2021 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0559 PM TORNADO 4 N CROSSVILLE 36.01N 85.03W 10/06/2021 CUMBERLAND TN EMERGENCY MNGR AN EF1 TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN ON THE NORTH SIDE OF CROSSVILLE NEAR THE OBED RIVER AND MOVED NORTHWARD ACROSS RYE WOODY RD...LAWSON RD AND TABOR LOOP BEFORE LIFTING. AT LEAST SIX HOMES AND SEVERAL OUTBUILDINGS WERE DAMAGED ON RYE WOODY RD AND LAWSON RD WITH THREE HOMES AND ANOTHER UNDER CONSTRUCTION SUFFERING SIGNIFICANT ROOF AND EXTERIOR DAMAGE. NUMEROUS TREES WERE ALSO SNAPPED AND UPROOTED IN ALL DIRECTIONS AND POWER LINES BLOWN DOWN. PATH LENGTH 1 MILE AND PATH WIDTH 50 YARDS. MAX WINDS 90 MPH.

News said it was a TOG

That looks brutal for Jan especially for severe.Mid level ridge in the SE and a Upper level ridge extending westward somewhere along the the Mid Atlantic/Carolinas.The ENSO already is looking more like the NINA in 2011-2012,with the exception this is colder right now Nothing will probably break the severe outbreak of Jan21-23 of 1999,but this was during a moderate NINA and the most active severe January's on record with 2012 coming in 2nd.Summer was just as brutal in 2012,Nashville hit its all time record high 109F https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tornado_outbreak_of_January_21–23,_1999

https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/13b68e35b8fd48e0b0188f1645992b98

Its colder right now than the 2011-2012 NINA.Some similar looks tho down into the subsurface but i'm sure technology is much better than it was 10 years ago.But either way it ended up being a moderate NINA into winter

Nina looks pretty strong to me,looks similar back into late Oct when it peaked,i'd be surprised if this doesn't end up at a moderate Nina upcoming as cold as the subsurface is.The recent CCKW is helping this out with another being shown towards the end of the month,but it looks weaker than it did a few days ago

Subsurface is pretty cool.With a passing KW recently and another one being shown towards the end of the month, we should be back into NINA pretty soon.To soon to look at severe fall but seemingly it could be a active one,we'll see

Areas around Tullahoma and Manchester has gotten around 10",about 6 " here so far,that is per RS estimation Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0995 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1146 AM EDT Mon Sep 20 2021 Areas affected...western/Middle Tennessee, northern Alabama, northern Mississippi Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 201545Z - 202200Z Summary...Flash flooding is likely today as slow-moving convection develops and moves over moist soils from prior rainfall. Discussion...A cluster of slow-moving showers and thunderstorms was observed over Middle Tennessee this morning. Meanwhile, additional showers and isolated thunderstorms were deepening to the south/southwest acrosss portions of Alabama, Mississippi, and western Tennessee. The environment supporting the ongoing convection was characterized by weak low-level confluence (southerly 850mb flow across Middle Tennessee and south-southwesterly 850mb flow across Mississippi), abundant moisture (near 2 inch PW values), and increasing surface-based instability (500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE - highest in Mississippi). Weak flow aloft was contributing to slow movement of ongoing convection, which was already resulting in a few areas of 1"/hr rainfall rates near the Nashville area. Three-hour rainfall totals around 2-3 inches have also been observed southwest of Nashville Metro. Although the ongoing convective cluster near Nashville may pose a few localized flash flood issues this morning, a higher flash-flood risk is possible later this afternoon as convective coverage increases in tandem with the peak diurnal cycle. Models and high-resolution guidance suggest that the greatest coverage of storms this afternoon will exist from northern Alabama into Middle Tennessee. These areas also have very low FFG values (generally less than 1.5"/hr thresholds, with spots as low as 0.5"/hr). These thresholds should easily be exceeded with convection this evening, especially given the slow storm motions and efficient rainfall production expected. Within the discussion area, the greatest likelihood of flash flooding will exist where FFGs are lowest (Middle Tennessee, Alabama, and far northwest Georgia). Farther west, flash flooding is still possible (Mississippi, western Tennessee) given the favorable atmospheric conditions, although FFGs are higher as this region hasn't experienced the heavier antecedent rainfall as areas farther east. Cook ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...HUN...JAN...LMK...MEG...MRX...OHX... PAH... ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...SERFC...NWC...

16"+ by Gorman, the white shade,if its correct by all means

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Nashville TN 106 PM CDT Sat Aug 21 2021 .UPDATE... FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION. && .DISCUSSION... Incredibly active flash flood situation ongoing for western portions of Middle Tennessee this morning where 8 to 12 inches of rain has been reported so far in locations in and around Houston, Humphreys, Dickson, and Hickman Counties. Some of the rainfall amounts that we`re seeing are a good 20%-25% of the TOTAL rainfall amounts we see in a year around here. MRMS radar estimates show a swath of 14 inches of rainfall with a few pixels of 17 inches. Even though this is likely an overestimation, it`s still quite impressive to see amounts that high since this morning. In the 4-5 years we`ve been using this radar rainfall estimation this product, we think this is the highest we`ve seen it as it`s maxed out the color scale. There`s no wonder we were able to get incredible rainfall rates/amounts this morning as the 12Z sounding from the office recorded Precipitable Water (PW) value of 2.37 inches which is well above the Daily Max of 2.21 inches for August 21st. The good news is...rainfall rates and amounts are on the downward trend finally which should help some of the hardest areas hit this morning. Flood waters should begin receding here soon especially those in Dickson and Houston Counties. However, still a dire/catastrophic situation ongoing in Humphreys and Hickman Counties!!! In addition, we are continuing to monitor the flash flood threat for Maury, Perry, and Lewis Counties as another 1-3 inches of rain will be possible in these counties. With that said, continued the Flash Flood Watch until 3pm. Off and on thunderstorms will be possible outside of the Flash Flood Watch too. Please stay tuned to any and all warnings and please do not travel into these hard hit flooded counties if you do not have to! Outside of the flood threat, we are monitoring the potential for a strong thunderstorm or two later this afternoon mainly across Southern Middle Tennessee. Although this threat seems rather secondary at the moment to the ongoing flash flooding. Stay safe out there everyone and help us remind everyone Turn Around Don`t Drown and Move to Higher Ground!

No doubt !! Flash Flood Warning Flash Flood Statement National Weather Service Nashville TN 846 AM CDT Sat Aug 21 2021 TNC043-081-083-085-211545- /O.CON.KOHX.FF.W.0051.000000T0000Z-210821T1545Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Dickson TN-Hickman TN-Houston TN-Humphreys TN- 846 AM CDT Sat Aug 21 2021 ...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR HOUSTON, HUMPHREYS, HICKMAN, AND DICKSON COUNTIES... ...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1045 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR DICKSON, NORTHERN HICKMAN, HOUSTON AND NORTHEASTERN HUMPHREYS COUNTIES... At 846 AM CDT, emergency management reported thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 4 and 11 inches of rain have fallen. Flash flooding is already occurring. This is a FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY for Houston, Humphreys, Hickman, and Dickson Counties. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW! HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing flash flooding. SOURCE...Emergency management reported. IMPACT...This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW! Life threatening flash flooding of low water crossings, small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses. Some locations that will experience flash flooding include... Dickson, Waverly, Centerville, Erin, White Bluff, McEwen, Burns, Tennessee Ridge, Charlotte, Vanleer, Slayden, Pinewood, Nunnelly, Bon Aqua, Lyles, Primm Springs and Houston County Airport.

Tornado Warning ALC083-190015- /O.NEW.KHUN.TO.W.0008.210818T2347Z-210819T0015Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Huntsville AL 647 PM CDT Wed Aug 18 2021 The National Weather Service in Huntsville Alabama has issued a * Tornado Warning for... East central Limestone County in north central Alabama... * Until 715 PM CDT * At 647 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located over Athens, moving east at 35 mph.

No doubt,hardest i seen it rain this afternoon in quite some time,came down in sheets,just needed some convection

Sorry to hear this,havent been on much lately.prayers to your wife for a full recovery

If you start a thread you can moderate it and delete the whole thing,not sure that is what happened but seems possible.