jaxjagman

Tried to find a decent map,but here is one

Yeah this causes the Walker Circulation to strenghten,and causes upwelling in the Eastern Pac,basically you can see the waters cooling now in the east to the surface

WOW !! @ THE SOI 25 Dec 2021 1015.80 1003.15 46.34 10.90 10.65 24 Dec 2021 1014.85 1005.50 29.22 10.18 10.14 23 Dec 2021 1011.50 1006.15 8.46 9.60 9.63 22 Dec 2021 1009.09 1007.85 -12.87 9.60 9.34 21 Dec 2021 1009.99 1011.50 -27.14 10.36 9.37 20 Dec 2021 1011.33 1009.50 -9.81 11.50 9.67

Yeah,kicks the Aleutian "H" out and a +ve PNA for a change,but to far out to believe.Even if it does work out probably just transient,but who knows.SPV is shown to be getting attacked as well

Doing ok,had a stroke in my left eye,hard to read but its getting better,docs said it will take months to heal,other that everything is ok.,hope all is well with you

for a brief time it went NINO back to NINA again

I wish Alan Huffman still had his ENSO models,but ii'm not sure its that far off,with a ridge into Western AK into the Aleutians EUTIAEUTIAN

Pretty impressive FWIW Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 24 Dec 2021 1014.85 1005.50 29.22 10.18 10.14 23 Dec 2021 1011.50 1006.15 8.46 9.60 9.63 22 Dec 2021 1009.09 1007.85 -12.87 9.60 9.34 21 Dec 2021 1009.99 1011.50 -27.14 10.36 9.37 20 Dec 2021 1011.33 1009.50 -9.81 11.50 9.67

Thats really impressive for this time of year,big 588dm sending dp's into the low to mid 60's through out the Valley with potential for some spots getting close to 30+ AN temps

Didnt quite work out,just some wind

Nashville's record high was 76 in 2016 Christmas day,,hope you didnt put those shorts away

Is the MJO really moving that much or is this constructive interference from a EW? The Equatorial subsurface temp has rose the last couple days and you also saw the SOI flip flop back into a more NINO but now its back to NINA so it had a brief hit on NINA but it still looks rather healthy. My bet is it will turn possibly cold into the 2nd week of Jan., but nothing seems to be locking nothing in.CFS seems to want the MJO to strengthen back into Africa into Jan then into the IO after but i wouldnt rely on that right now. Mid 70's possible Christmas day,possible severe weather next weekwhat season is this?

We haven't had a active severe fall in quite some time,this year was epic for sure December 10-11, 2021 Tornado Outbreak One of the worst tornado outbreaks ever recorded in the United States struck the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Tennessee Valley from the evening hours on December 10 into the morning hours on December 11, 2021. What made this tornado outbreak even more unusual was that it occurred in the month of December, and is easily the worst tornado outbreak ever during that month. Dozens of tornadoes affected Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Arkansas, Kentucky, Tennessee, Mississippi and Alabama, killing over 100 people and injuries dozens of others. Across Middle Tennessee, a total of 15 tornadoes were determined to have touched down as of December 18th - three EF-2 tornadoes, six EF-1 tornadoes, and six EF-0 tornadoes - making this the 5th largest tornado outbreak on record in Middle Tennessee. These tornadoes injured 8 people and caused millions of dollars in property and tree damage in many counties. These tornadoes, combined with the 5 tornadoes that occurred just a few days earlier across Middle Tennessee on December 6, 2021, set a new record for the number of tornadoes during the month of December Here are some December Tornado Stats: A total of 20 tornadoes occurred across Middle Tennessee in December 2021 - five on December 6th & fifteen on December 10-11th. From the 1800s through 2020, only 17 tornadoes were recorded across Middle Tennessee in the month of December Many counties that had tornadoes in December 2021 had never recorded a tornado in the month of December before, including Stewart, Humphreys, Cheatham, Wilson, Trousdale, Overton, Pickett, Coffee, and Grundy Counties A total of 44 tornadoes have occurred across Middle Tennessee in 2021 - the most on record, beating the previous high total of 38 in 2011 https://www.weather.gov/ohx/20211211

US National Weather Service Nashville Tennessee 53m · For Official Release: New 24-hour Record Rainfall for the State of Tennessee The State Climate Extremes Committee (SCEC) in coordination with the National Weather Service in Nashville, Tennessee and the Tennessee State Climate Office at Eastern Tennessee State University has confirmed that 20.73" of rain in 24 hours is a new State Record. This new 24-hour Precipitation Record occurred on August 21, 2021 at the McEwen, TN Wastewater Treatment Plant. It breaks a previous record of 13.60" in Milan, TN on September 13, 1982. The SCEC carefully reviewed the meteorology and equipment conditions for this event. A unanimous vote of 5-0 determined that the 20.73" observed in McEwen, TN on August 21, 2021 was valid and constituted a State Record for 24-hour total precipitation. Catastrophic flooding occurred in Waverly, TN and surrounding areas as a result of this record rainfall.

Nina isnt going no where for a time,The Equatorial is dropping once again and that map STU showed above shows its cooling once again the same place where we saw this impressive numbers earlier down into the subsurface

Think i'd be careful with this Nina,its stronger than what you might think it is. Unlike last year where the SOI bounced all around it's not that way right now.The Equatorial subsurface is cooling once again and where we saw those impressive anomalies down in the subsurface earlier a few weeks ago, its getting cold the same area again. Be nice if that map was right but is it?Not sure NINA works like that,but if its like that think ,it would be a active jet for sure in Jan

Like a spring time storm,one of the EF-3 IN kY was talked about getting upgraded to a EF-4,but haven't heard nothing yet

UBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN 900 PM CST WED DEC 15 2021 ...UPDATED NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR DECEMBER 10-11, 2021 TORNADO EVENT... .UPDATE...COMBINED NWS MEMPHIS, NWS NASHVILLE AND NWS PADUCAH PORTIONS OF LONG TRACK TORNADO INTO ONE NARRATIVE, AND ALSO COMBINED CLAY COUNTY TN AND MONROE COUNTY KY TORNADO INFO. UPDATED NORTHWEST HICKMAN COUNTY, DICKSON, AND KINGSTON SPRINGS TORNADO PATHS BASED ON NASA SATELLITE IMAGERY, AND INCREASED WINDS SLIGHTLY WITH THE HENDERSONVILLE TORNADO. ALSO ADDED 1 MINOR INJURY FOR THE MOUNT JULIET TORNADO. A TOTAL OF 15 TORNADOES HAVE BEEN CONFIRMED ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH THIS EVENT. https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=202112160300-KOHX-NOUS44-PNSOHX

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https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=202112130301-KOHX-NOUS44-PNSOHX

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN 901 PM CST SUN DEC 12 2021 ...NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR DECEMBER 10-11, 2021 TORNADO EVENT... THIS IS THE LATEST STORM SURVEY INFORMATION FROM NWS NASHVILLE. AS OF THIS EVENING, 7 CONFIRMED TORNADOES OCCURRED IN MIDDLE TN, HOWEVER, ADDITIONAL SURVEYS WILL BE CONDUCTED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY THIS WEEK. INFORMATION WILL BE PUBLISHED AS SOON AS IT'S AVAILABLE. https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=202112130301-KOHX-NOUS44-PNSOHX

In case you dont know how to use it go to maps,,pull up velocity potential,mjo, its probably wise to click on days and NOT go past 5 or 7 days,just saying

I use these charts https://ncics.org/portfolio/monitor/mjo/

Would not trust anything that far out but it looks sweet today

Meant to put MJO but didnt,surely this could change,just keep it out the Maritime