jaxjagman

Ok,we will keep it then,might wotk out better that way or we'd have to start a thread for the next season at the start of one,if that makes since

Fixing to start a new Severe thread but was thinking of letting the ENSO thread slip slide away since there is already a thread on the main page,we can post ENSO in the seasonals,see what yall think?

If no one else does it work on it later today

I remember the big snow when we first moved here was on Christmas day in Lawrenceburg we got around 10" and another storm dumped about 2-4" after that a couple days later,i was so excited to see snow after living in Jacksonville,Fl where we rarely seen snow ever then after that the dreaded snow dome came upon us

We hit 75 today,missed the record of 76 in 2016.Bah humbug !!

It STILL seems possible the Euro is going to be wrong with the MJO from destructive interference from KW

John made a good point a couple days ago this don't seem like a typical NINA.Believe that Aleutian high has been stronger than past Ninas causing some area out west for the heights to fall when they should actually rise

Yes that Aleutian High is resiilient

Dunno,i'd like to see the GEFS side with the GFS.But they are complete opposite.So this could be a death ridge just as well

It should help with a pattern change upcoming,to what extent i have no clue

Tried to find a decent map,but here is one

Yeah this causes the Walker Circulation to strenghten,and causes upwelling in the Eastern Pac,basically you can see the waters cooling now in the east to the surface

WOW !! @ THE SOI 25 Dec 2021 1015.80 1003.15 46.34 10.90 10.65 24 Dec 2021 1014.85 1005.50 29.22 10.18 10.14 23 Dec 2021 1011.50 1006.15 8.46 9.60 9.63 22 Dec 2021 1009.09 1007.85 -12.87 9.60 9.34 21 Dec 2021 1009.99 1011.50 -27.14 10.36 9.37 20 Dec 2021 1011.33 1009.50 -9.81 11.50 9.67

Yeah,kicks the Aleutian "H" out and a +ve PNA for a change,but to far out to believe.Even if it does work out probably just transient,but who knows.SPV is shown to be getting attacked as well

Doing ok,had a stroke in my left eye,hard to read but its getting better,docs said it will take months to heal,other that everything is ok.,hope all is well with you

for a brief time it went NINO back to NINA again

I wish Alan Huffman still had his ENSO models,but ii'm not sure its that far off,with a ridge into Western AK into the Aleutians EUTIAEUTIAN

Pretty impressive FWIW Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 24 Dec 2021 1014.85 1005.50 29.22 10.18 10.14 23 Dec 2021 1011.50 1006.15 8.46 9.60 9.63 22 Dec 2021 1009.09 1007.85 -12.87 9.60 9.34 21 Dec 2021 1009.99 1011.50 -27.14 10.36 9.37 20 Dec 2021 1011.33 1009.50 -9.81 11.50 9.67

Thats really impressive for this time of year,big 588dm sending dp's into the low to mid 60's through out the Valley with potential for some spots getting close to 30+ AN temps

Didnt quite work out,just some wind

Nashville's record high was 76 in 2016 Christmas day,,hope you didnt put those shorts away

Is the MJO really moving that much or is this constructive interference from a EW? The Equatorial subsurface temp has rose the last couple days and you also saw the SOI flip flop back into a more NINO but now its back to NINA so it had a brief hit on NINA but it still looks rather healthy. My bet is it will turn possibly cold into the 2nd week of Jan., but nothing seems to be locking nothing in.CFS seems to want the MJO to strengthen back into Africa into Jan then into the IO after but i wouldnt rely on that right now. Mid 70's possible Christmas day,possible severe weather next weekwhat season is this?

We haven't had a active severe fall in quite some time,this year was epic for sure December 10-11, 2021 Tornado Outbreak One of the worst tornado outbreaks ever recorded in the United States struck the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Tennessee Valley from the evening hours on December 10 into the morning hours on December 11, 2021. What made this tornado outbreak even more unusual was that it occurred in the month of December, and is easily the worst tornado outbreak ever during that month. Dozens of tornadoes affected Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Arkansas, Kentucky, Tennessee, Mississippi and Alabama, killing over 100 people and injuries dozens of others. Across Middle Tennessee, a total of 15 tornadoes were determined to have touched down as of December 18th - three EF-2 tornadoes, six EF-1 tornadoes, and six EF-0 tornadoes - making this the 5th largest tornado outbreak on record in Middle Tennessee. These tornadoes injured 8 people and caused millions of dollars in property and tree damage in many counties. These tornadoes, combined with the 5 tornadoes that occurred just a few days earlier across Middle Tennessee on December 6, 2021, set a new record for the number of tornadoes during the month of December Here are some December Tornado Stats: A total of 20 tornadoes occurred across Middle Tennessee in December 2021 - five on December 6th & fifteen on December 10-11th. From the 1800s through 2020, only 17 tornadoes were recorded across Middle Tennessee in the month of December Many counties that had tornadoes in December 2021 had never recorded a tornado in the month of December before, including Stewart, Humphreys, Cheatham, Wilson, Trousdale, Overton, Pickett, Coffee, and Grundy Counties A total of 44 tornadoes have occurred across Middle Tennessee in 2021 - the most on record, beating the previous high total of 38 in 2011 https://www.weather.gov/ohx/20211211

US National Weather Service Nashville Tennessee 53m · For Official Release: New 24-hour Record Rainfall for the State of Tennessee The State Climate Extremes Committee (SCEC) in coordination with the National Weather Service in Nashville, Tennessee and the Tennessee State Climate Office at Eastern Tennessee State University has confirmed that 20.73" of rain in 24 hours is a new State Record. This new 24-hour Precipitation Record occurred on August 21, 2021 at the McEwen, TN Wastewater Treatment Plant. It breaks a previous record of 13.60" in Milan, TN on September 13, 1982. The SCEC carefully reviewed the meteorology and equipment conditions for this event. A unanimous vote of 5-0 determined that the 20.73" observed in McEwen, TN on August 21, 2021 was valid and constituted a State Record for 24-hour total precipitation. Catastrophic flooding occurred in Waverly, TN and surrounding areas as a result of this record rainfall.

Nina isnt going no where for a time,The Equatorial is dropping once again and that map STU showed above shows its cooling once again the same place where we saw this impressive numbers earlier down into the subsurface