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jaxjagman

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Everything posted by jaxjagman

  1. jaxjagman
    That didn't work out very well,nothing severe but some heavy rains.Bought some new tires yesterday morn and was driving down Old Hickory,all the sudden several cars in front of me saw a brick mailbox explode from a car hitting it,ran over a few boulders,poor tires
  2. jaxjagman
    Come on,lets do this.Don't mean it will happen this far out.Sure miss those strong autumn cold fronts
  3. jaxjagman

    ENSO

    jaxjagman replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    Euro seems to have alot of support bringing the MJO signal out of the COD into Dec.Cold signal but i think we should warm up some before then,lots of questions seemingly what the MJO does after that,be nice if it stayed there but that is wishcasting..lol
  4. jaxjagman
    We don't know what thunder sounds like here anymore,you got some convection
  5. jaxjagman

    ENSO

    jaxjagman replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    Subsurface has leveled off the last several days.No more subsurface -6 but its still cold below,east of the IDL.Not much of any KW being shown the next several days so NINA should stay more weak right now,least that is how i see it
  6. jaxjagman
    Could be but right now it don't really look that way.SOI still looks to be more NINA.MJO right now is being shown climbing out the COD into the WP into the first of Dec.,that should be more BN rather than AN. IF the CFS were to be believed this far out it will weaken some into Dec then strenghten again into the WP into week3 of Dec.,that shouldn't be a warm signal as long as it's out of a COD..JMO
  7. jaxjagman
    Think we will see a warm up into Dec.,maybe not that bad right now,GEFS might be to slow.Euro and CfS both show the MJO starting to strenghten into the WP into Dec.,think the question will be where it goes after.Typical NINA seemingly,cold front end,sucky after that
  8. jaxjagman
    Its cold signals right now
  9. jaxjagman
  10. jaxjagman

    ENSO

    jaxjagman replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    Guess we should finally punt the idea of the horrid 2011-12 winter,at least by the ENSO.Subsurface still has a large cold pool of -6..The seasonals coming in now shows the ENSO much colder than what they have been showing in recent months even into spring
  11. jaxjagman
    To bad its not winter,East Asia is fixing to crank up for a bit
  12. jaxjagman
    Probably have to wait and see,CFS could be wrong
  13. jaxjagman
    Need the MJO to stay out of the Maritime,don't look like it will happen.Euro has been to strong with it last week into Africa,probably constructive interference from a KW.I wouldn't be surprised if the Euro comes out of the COD the next few days and shows it stronger into the IO,seems to be what the CFS has been showing
  14. jaxjagman
    You gotta think something is going to happen during this time frame,recurving typhoon and a crashing SOI.But right now it could be anything,could even be severe
  15. jaxjagman
    Possible "phoon" recurving off of the Japan coast in a few days which would fall in line basically with the timing possibly of those maps
  16. jaxjagman

    ENSO

    jaxjagman replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    The APCC ENSO Alert suggests “La Niña WATCH”. During September 2021, negative sea surface temperature anomalies were observed over the equatorial Pacific. The Niño3.4 index below -1℃ is expected to gradually increase to -0.24℃ during the forecast period. Based on the running 3-month mean Niño3.4 index, the latest APCC ENSO outlook suggests a 90% chance of La Niña conditions with weak intensity for November 2021 – January 2022, which gradually decreases. Meanwhile, ENSO-neutral conditions are likely to be gradually increasing and then dominant during February – April 2022. Highly probable above normal temperatures are predicted for much of the globe, especially for Eurasia, southern USA, and Argentina for November 2021 – April 2022. A tendency for above normal precipitation is predicted for eastern Russia, some regions of Canada, and the Arctic for November 2021 – April 2022.
  17. jaxjagman
    Turned my heater on for a bit to get the chill out this morning
  18. jaxjagman

    ENSO

    jaxjagman replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    We'll see, this is looking more like a more modoki, west based NINA than anything,its even cooling into the subsurface closer to the IDL.After the next KW moving through this week the MJO signal looks mute right now until it strenghtens into the IO towards the end of the month.Least that is what i see,but this still looks stronger than 2011-2012..IMHO.Think if i were a betting man from TX/LA/AR into the OV could see all kind of extremes,cutter heaven.But that is JMHO.
  19. jaxjagman

    ENSO

    jaxjagman replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    Pretty much all agree a moderate NINA peaking around the new year
  20. jaxjagman
    PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN 512 PM CDT THU OCT 07 2021 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0559 PM TORNADO 4 N CROSSVILLE 36.01N 85.03W 10/06/2021 CUMBERLAND TN EMERGENCY MNGR AN EF1 TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN ON THE NORTH SIDE OF CROSSVILLE NEAR THE OBED RIVER AND MOVED NORTHWARD ACROSS RYE WOODY RD...LAWSON RD AND TABOR LOOP BEFORE LIFTING. AT LEAST SIX HOMES AND SEVERAL OUTBUILDINGS WERE DAMAGED ON RYE WOODY RD AND LAWSON RD WITH THREE HOMES AND ANOTHER UNDER CONSTRUCTION SUFFERING SIGNIFICANT ROOF AND EXTERIOR DAMAGE. NUMEROUS TREES WERE ALSO SNAPPED AND UPROOTED IN ALL DIRECTIONS AND POWER LINES BLOWN DOWN. PATH LENGTH 1 MILE AND PATH WIDTH 50 YARDS. MAX WINDS 90 MPH.
  21. jaxjagman
    News said it was a TOG
  22. jaxjagman
  23. jaxjagman
    That looks brutal for Jan especially for severe.Mid level ridge in the SE and a Upper level ridge extending westward somewhere along the the Mid Atlantic/Carolinas.The ENSO already is looking more like the NINA in 2011-2012,with the exception this is colder right now Nothing will probably break the severe outbreak of Jan21-23 of 1999,but this was during a moderate NINA and the most active severe January's on record with 2012 coming in 2nd.Summer was just as brutal in 2012,Nashville hit its all time record high 109F https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tornado_outbreak_of_January_21–23,_1999
  24. jaxjagman
    https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/13b68e35b8fd48e0b0188f1645992b98
  25. jaxjagman
    Its colder right now than the 2011-2012 NINA.Some similar looks tho down into the subsurface but i'm sure technology is much better than it was 10 years ago.But either way it ended up being a moderate NINA into winter
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