jaxjagman

Day 1 Convective Outlook AMEND 2 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0508 PM CST Fri Dec 10 2021 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT FROM NORTHEAST AR/SOUTHEAST MO INTO WESTERN TN/KY AND SOUTHERN IL... AMENDED TO INCREASE SEVERE PROBABILITIES IN NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA ...SUMMARY... A few strong tornadoes, damaging gusts, and large hail are all expected beginning this evening across Arkansas and Missouri, with the greatest tornado threat close to the confluence of the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers. The damaging wind and tornado threat will persist overnight while spreading eastward into the Tennessee Valley and northeastward across the Ohio Valley overnight. Northeast Texas: Isolated thunderstorms are developing a bit farther west across northeast Texas than earlier anticipated. With ample moisture/instability across this region ahead of the front will increase severe probabilities across this region. The previous forecast appears to be on track, and little change is needed at 20Z. At 19Z, a dryline was located near the I-35 corridor from north TX into OK, with gradual warming and destabilization noted eastward into AR. Upwards of 1500 J/kg MLCAPE is already in place there, with further warming along with dewpoints holding in the upper 60s F. While capping currently exists over most areas, the deepening moist boundary layer is forecast become uncapped prior to 00Z over AR, and this will support possible supercell development with tornado threat evolving east-northeastward into western KY/TN through the evening. Otherwise, expanding storm coverage is likely around 03Z along/ahead of the cold front as large scale lift increases across the MS and OH Valleys, with very strong shear favoring tornadoes, possibly strong. For more information on the AR and southeast MO area, see mesoscale discussion 1978. ..Darrow.. 12/10/2021

How are you Mr.Bob,dont see you around much?

Mesoscale Discussion 1982 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0445 PM CST Fri Dec 10 2021 Areas affected...Eastern Arkansas...southeast Missouri...southern Illinois...southeast Indiana...and western Kentucky. Concerning...Tornado Watch 552... Valid 102245Z - 110015Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 552 continues. SUMMARY...A slow increase in storm intensity/coverage is expected over the next 1 to 2 hours. DISCUSSION...Initial storms which developed near Little Rock have not shown much organization thus far. In addition, weak cellular convection is developing across much of the Mississippi River region. However, a strong capping inversion, sampled by the 19Z LZK RAOB is likely limiting more robust storm development thus far. As heights continue to fall this evening, expect these warmer mid-level temperatures to erode further and expect greater storm coverage and intensity. Once mature supercells can develop, all severe hazards remain possible as the environment remains favorable with 0 to 1 km shear now in excess of 35 knots per KLZK VWP.

Mid South some of these short range models coming in might have a rough night

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OHX&product=PNS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 Your pic should be the Trousdale Co one

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 550 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 855 PM CST Sun Dec 5 2021 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern and central Arkansas Southern Missouri Eastern Oklahoma Northwest Tennessee * Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 855 PM until 400 AM CST. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Storms will continue to develop and intensify along and ahead of a cold front tonight, with a severe storm risk expected to continue through much of the overnight. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles west northwest of Fort Smith AR to 50 miles northeast of Dyersburg TN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

Models are all over the place for next weekend.But even if does turn cold there seems to be no mechanics that would logically lock in any cold/Just a roller coaster ride upcoming seemingly..Best thing to get any decent snow right now would be from some ANA front like system but i hate watching snow over night and melts the next day

Some strong storms possible over night,especailly if the NAM is right.LLJ starts to kivk in 50-60kts.See what the afternoon models show us. Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Sun Dec 05 2021 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY AFTER DARK FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION INTO PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the Arklatex region to the Mid-South and lower Ohio River Valley. ...Lower OH into Mid/Lower MS Valleys... Morning water vapor loop shows an upper trough amplifying over the northern Plains. The associated surface cold front is now over NE/KS, and is forecast to sweep southeastward across much of the MS and lower OH valleys by tomorrow morning. The result will be scattered showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of the front. Present indications are that the capping inversion will weaken this evening ahead of the front, with strong southwesterly low-level winds transporting dewpoints in the upper 50s and lower 60s into the region. This will encourage shower and scattered thunderstorm development along the front after dark from southern IL into southern MO and northern AR. CAM solutions suggest that initial robust activity will be sparse, but sufficient CAPE and shear through the cloud-bearing layer could pose a risk of hail in the strongest cores over parts of MO/AR. Farther northeast, linear convective segments could result in gusty/damaging wind gusts. As the night progresses, coverage of deep convection along the front will likely increase. It is uncertain how many organized storm clusters will form along the front, but 40-50 knot southwesterly low-level winds and considerable shear will promote a risk of bowing structures capable of damaging winds and/or QLCS tornadoes. This threat will persist through the early morning as storms develop southeastward into parts of MS/TN/KY.

It should turn cold but before both the GFS and Euro is looking severe next weekend,could change this far out.MJO Looks good right now,even the CFS is showing a strong signal into Africa into the last week of Dec.Nothing wrong with that but you should proceed with caution on that one

Probably a volatile period coming up around next weekend.Big trough going through East Asia,typhoon and a Rex block around the Western Aleutians

That didn't work out very well,nothing severe but some heavy rains.Bought some new tires yesterday morn and was driving down Old Hickory,all the sudden several cars in front of me saw a brick mailbox explode from a car hitting it,ran over a few boulders,poor tires

Come on,lets do this.Don't mean it will happen this far out.Sure miss those strong autumn cold fronts

Euro seems to have alot of support bringing the MJO signal out of the COD into Dec.Cold signal but i think we should warm up some before then,lots of questions seemingly what the MJO does after that,be nice if it stayed there but that is wishcasting..lol

We don't know what thunder sounds like here anymore,you got some convection

Subsurface has leveled off the last several days.No more subsurface -6 but its still cold below,east of the IDL.Not much of any KW being shown the next several days so NINA should stay more weak right now,least that is how i see it

Could be but right now it don't really look that way.SOI still looks to be more NINA.MJO right now is being shown climbing out the COD into the WP into the first of Dec.,that should be more BN rather than AN. IF the CFS were to be believed this far out it will weaken some into Dec then strenghten again into the WP into week3 of Dec.,that shouldn't be a warm signal as long as it's out of a COD..JMO

Think we will see a warm up into Dec.,maybe not that bad right now,GEFS might be to slow.Euro and CfS both show the MJO starting to strenghten into the WP into Dec.,think the question will be where it goes after.Typical NINA seemingly,cold front end,sucky after that

Its cold signals right now

Guess we should finally punt the idea of the horrid 2011-12 winter,at least by the ENSO.Subsurface still has a large cold pool of -6..The seasonals coming in now shows the ENSO much colder than what they have been showing in recent months even into spring

To bad its not winter,East Asia is fixing to crank up for a bit

Probably have to wait and see,CFS could be wrong

Need the MJO to stay out of the Maritime,don't look like it will happen.Euro has been to strong with it last week into Africa,probably constructive interference from a KW.I wouldn't be surprised if the Euro comes out of the COD the next few days and shows it stronger into the IO,seems to be what the CFS has been showing

You gotta think something is going to happen during this time frame,recurving typhoon and a crashing SOI.But right now it could be anything,could even be severe

Possible "phoon" recurving off of the Japan coast in a few days which would fall in line basically with the timing possibly of those maps