jaxjagman

Tornado in KY has some decent rotation now

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0636 AM CST Sat Jan 01 2022 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS THE TN VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Damaging winds and tornadoes, a couple of which could be strong, will be possible through early tonight, especially across the Tennessee Valley. ...TN Valley and vicinity through tonight... Convection has persisted through the early morning hours along a baroclinic zone demarcating the northwest edge of the richer low-level moisture from AR into TN/KY. The convection has reinforced this boundary and it is unlikely to return northward today, given the lack of strong cyclogenesis as a result of an expansive cold air mass across the central U.S. that will undercut the stronger forcing for ascent in advance of the primary shortwave trough over AZ/UT this morning. Even though the main surface cyclone will not be particularly intense and will develop farther northeast away from the warm sector (in tandem with an ejecting shortwave trough now over TX/OK), strong deep-layer wind fields and vertical shear will persist through the day and into tonight in the warm sector across the TN Valley. Given the persistence of the subtropical ridge over FL and only glancing/small height falls through the day, much of the convection may remain confined to the convection-reinforced frontal zone. Still, there will be the potential for embedded supercells within a broken band of storms along the front, and a lower chance for a couple of supercells in the open warm sector along diffuse confluence zones a little south of the front this afternoon/evening. Effective bulk shear of 60-70 kt, effective SRH near 300 m2/s2, and MLCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg will conditionally support supercells capable of producing tornadoes, damaging winds, and marginally severe hail. The prospects for a strong tornado or two will likely hinge on pre-frontal supercell development (which is uncertain) from northern MS into northern AL and TN late this afternoon/evening. The frontal convection will spread southeastward through the overnight hours, with a gradually lessening severe threat and shrinking warm sector centered on AL toward the end of the period. ..Thompson/Kerr.. 01/01/2022

Record high for Nashville is 77,sitting at 73 right now,i think that might get broken possibly

I dont know why people want to kill this Nina off so quick. The equatorial subsurface has falling again,even with the strenghten Walker circulation in which will would cause upwelling along with KW in the East Pac as the MJO rolls through.Might take a beat down but its not going to kill this NINA anytime soon.

We had to replace our roof the last storm,meant to post it on the last severe thread but its locked now

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CST Fri Dec 31 2021 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DEEP SOUTH AND TENNESSEE VALLEY.... ...SUMMARY... Widespread thunderstorms are expected from the ArkLaTex to the Western Appalachians on New Year's Day. All severe-weather hazards are possible including large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes, a couple of which may be strong. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted upper-level trough will be centered near the Great Basin to start the period. This trough will maintain its positive tilt as it shifts eastward across the Plains and into the Midwest by 12Z Sunday. An embedded mid-level shortwave trough will move quickly from the southern High Plains across the Midwest and Ohio Valley Saturday to the Northeast by Sunday morning. A surface reflection of this mid-level shortwave trough is expected to travel along the front from the Ozarks to the Ohio Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic. ...Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians... There is still considerable uncertainty regarding the northward extent of the destabilization and severe-weather threat based on the position of the position of the surface front and the strength of the surface low. The NAM is stronger with the surface low with a much farther north warm front bringing low 60s dewpoints north of the Ohio River into southern Illinois, southern Indiana, and Southwest Ohio. However, the operational GFS is much weaker and southeast with the surface low and only brings low 60s dewpoints into south-central Kentucky. The ECMWF solution is between these two locations with the frontal position, which also closely resembles the GEFS mean. Therefore, the northern extent of the marginal and slight risk threat areas match the ECMWF and GEFS mean. A line of storms is expected to move through this region during the afternoon and early evening hours. Forecast soundings show more than 50 knots of flow only a few hundred meters above the surface. Therefore, mixing this strong flow to the surface should not be that difficult, even in a weak buoyancy environment. Low 60s dewpoints should yield MLCAPE around 250 to 500 J/kg across southern Kentucky, which increases the confidence for severe winds as the squall line moves through. In addition, a QLCS tornado threat will exist given the strong low-level speed shear present ahead of this line of storms. However, the limited instability and veered surface flow will be limiting factors to a greater tornado threat along this portion of the line. ...Portions of the Deep South into the Tennessee Valley... A large area of thunderstorms, some of which may be severe, is expected to be ongoing from western Kentucky to northern Texas Saturday morning. As the surface low moves from the Plains into the Ozarks Saturday morning, this convection is expected to become better organized, likely into a squall line, and start to advance eastward. Dewpoints are forecast in the mid to upper 60s ahead of these storms, which should yield MLCAPE around 500 to 1500 J/kg from north to south. This should be more than sufficient to maintain a strong squall line through the afternoon and into the overnight hours across eastern Arkansas, most of Tennessee, and northern Mississippi and Alabama. A 50 to 60 knot low-level jet will result in strong low-level speed shear across the entire warm sector. Forecast soundings show mostly unidirectional flow in the lowest 1 km due to the veered surface flow across most of the warm sector as a result of the elongated nature of the surface pressure pattern. This should temper the tornado threat somewhat, but with the strong speed shear and the expectation of a well balanced squall line, the environment will still be supportive for QLCS tornadoes. Most guidance hints at the potential for some warm sector supercell development across portions of Mississippi, Alabama, and Tennessee Saturday afternoon/evening. The ECMWF has been especially bullish with pre-frontal convection for the last several days, which continues through the latest 00Z run. Any strong supercells which can develop in the open warm sector will likely have the greatest threat for significant to potentially intense tornadoes. The most likely region for pre-frontal supercell development will be from eastern Arkansas to northern Alabama and possibly southern Tennessee where greater instability is forecast. Veered low-level flow will keep low-level directional shear limited during the first half of the day. However, at least slightly greater low-level turning is shown by forecast soundings during the late afternoon into the evening hours as surface flow remains south-southwest, while the low-level jet starts to veer more westerly as the main wave shifts east. This may result in a slightly higher tornado threat into the overnight hours from far eastern Mississippi into northern/central Alabama and northwest Georgia. ..Bentley.. 12/31/2021

Speak of the dog

Models are looking more NAM,should be a enhanced severe risk coming up some where

why dont yall just make this a thread from new years eve until out,it seems quite a period that way i wont start a severe thread.

Just keep the +EPO away...lol Edit scratch that comment,i was looking at another map

I'd think so if the CFS is right

lEastern Pac,should see NINA peak soon as the warmer SST'S build out west with upwelling in the east cools

SOI is still rather strong today.This should strenghten the Walker Circulation,generally this puts HP in the Eastern Pac in time Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 26 Dec 2021 1012.82 1000.10 46.71 11.43 10.90 25 Dec 2021 1015.80 1003.15 46.34 10.90 10.65 24 Dec 2021 1014.85 1005.50 29.22 10.18 10.14 23 Dec 2021 1011.50 1006.15 8.46 9.60 9.63 22 Dec 2021 1009.09 1007.85 -12.87 9.60 9.34 21 Dec 2021 1009.99 1011.50 -27.14 10.36 9.37 20 Dec 2021 1011.33 1009.50 -9.81 11.50 9.67

Lock this thread up please

After 4-years of the last one, time for another thread to get going

Ok,we will keep it then,might wotk out better that way or we'd have to start a thread for the next season at the start of one,if that makes since

Fixing to start a new Severe thread but was thinking of letting the ENSO thread slip slide away since there is already a thread on the main page,we can post ENSO in the seasonals,see what yall think?

If no one else does it work on it later today

I remember the big snow when we first moved here was on Christmas day in Lawrenceburg we got around 10" and another storm dumped about 2-4" after that a couple days later,i was so excited to see snow after living in Jacksonville,Fl where we rarely seen snow ever then after that the dreaded snow dome came upon us

We hit 75 today,missed the record of 76 in 2016.Bah humbug !!

It STILL seems possible the Euro is going to be wrong with the MJO from destructive interference from KW

John made a good point a couple days ago this don't seem like a typical NINA.Believe that Aleutian high has been stronger than past Ninas causing some area out west for the heights to fall when they should actually rise

Yes that Aleutian High is resiilient

Dunno,i'd like to see the GEFS side with the GFS.But they are complete opposite.So this could be a death ridge just as well

It should help with a pattern change upcoming,to what extent i have no clue