jaxjagman

Euro did a big flip flop i'd say,from a crud look to a rather nice one.There is a trough going trough East Asia today.Might be a period to watch closely anyways

Good luck to you guys in the east,you guys deserve it.

Back to some decent snow again here http://traffic.brentwoodtn.gov/201173a.htm

That sucks,might do the same here later looking at my radar

http://traffic.brentwoodtn.gov/201173a.htm Close to my house

The flakes are massive no doubt

NINA seems to be dying out quicker than i thought it would the SOI the last few days is acting more like a NINO now.The MJO going back into the Westen Pac .looks warmish towards the end of the month Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 15 Jan 2022 1007.03 1007.60 -24.40 3.32 7.51 14 Jan 2022 1008.50 1005.95 -9.70 4.71 8.00 13 Jan 2022 1011.05 1005.35 5.14 5.64 8.43 12 Jan 2022 1013.14 1008.60 -0.32 6.01 8.61 11 Jan 2022 1011.99 1008.45 -5.04 6.46 8.80 10 Jan 2022 1007.84 1008.35 -24.11 7.04 9.02 9 Jan 2022 1007.02 1008.30 -27.74 8.33 9.43 8 Jan 2022 1008.45 1008.65 -22.65 9.56 9.77 7 Jan 2022 1011.09 1008.10 -7.63 10.53 9.97

National Weather Service Nashville TN 809 PM CST Sat Jan 15 2022 .UPDATE... FOR EVENING DISCUSSION. && .DISCUSSION... Light rain continues to drift northward at update time this evening, blanketing a good portion of Middle TN. Temperatures for almost everyone are in the upper 30s to low 40s, but very slowly, we`re starting to see some colder temperatures invade our far northwest counties. One or two reports of sleet have already come in from Dover and we can expect this kind of a wintry mix to continue to spread southward through the nighttime hours, especially as the rain evaporates and helps cool the air column across the mid-state. I have no reason to change anything from the earlier forecast package. Temperatures and PoPs are on track. Latest hi-res guidance continues to show pockets of heavy snowfall tomorrow as we deal with banding and even the potential for some convective snow showers. This will beef up snowfall rates to 2+ inches/hr and likely give several areas quite a bit of snow. While the Plateau still looks to bear the brunt of this winter weather system, there are indications that several spots south of I-40 will see more snow than we`re currently forecasting. Where these heavy pockets will occur is the main question. Messaging hasn`t changed from last night: don`t focus on amounts. Wintry weather, and probably quite a bit of it is going to get dumped across a good portion of the mid-state tomorrow. This is going to lead to major travel impacts and while we`re lucky Monday is a holiday, which should take many off the roads, the other half of us will be dealing with a messy situation. Monday still looks cloudy, so even if we reach into the mid-30s, without sunshine, roads are going to be bad until Tuesday.

Still moisture back into eastern OK

37 here now

IInverted trough it doesnt seem stacked ATM

That is wild

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=atlpac-wide&product=ir

I bet John will get hammered and like Nashville said some possible thundersnow possibly,along the lower flank of the trowel along the upslopes

NINA could die off quickly it seems.Much as i kicked the 2011'-2012,the equatorial is looking quite similar,just a few weeks ahead,we could have a active severe spring seemingly right now Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 15 Jan 2022 1007.03 1007.60 -24.40 3.32 7.51 14 Jan 2022 1008.50 1005.95 -9.70 4.71 8.00 13 Jan 2022 1011.05 1005.35 5.14 5.64 8.43 12 Jan 2022 1013.14 1008.60 -0.32 6.01 8.61 11 Jan 2022 1011.99 1008.45 -5.04 6.46 8.80 10 Jan 2022 1007.84 1008.35 -24.11 7.04 9.02 9 Jan 2022 1007.02 1008.30 -27.74 8.33 9.43

One thing to look at the NAM right now seems to be the strongest with the 850 low,gfs is behind that and the HRR is the weaker,thus you'd also have a weaker WAA into parts of the Valley with the weakest but who knows right now

We also had HP nosing down from the NW,that's big

No.the deformation zone was around our area and not to the south.I remember putting my pointer around NE Williamson County it showed us getting 9".,think we got around 7-8",it didnt shpw much of anything to the south

That could be a Icemeggedon..lol

Must have misunderstood them ? https://x-default-stgec.uplynk.com/ausw/slices/ee7/9ca48a3b38ef42538c6fe52a659b1e99/ee7285d0e2154bcdb24834083b254559/ee7285d0e2154bcdb24834083b254559_e.mp4

Alabama should have beaten Auburn.Auburn quite a bit puts the gas pedal down at times then it's like they get over confident and blows it.We have a good team no doubt but how good are we?I haven't a clue yet

Looks more or less tilted,its why you see all these wild jumps here to there.Models are having a hard time trying to pin point where the actual low is going to be

No way that clown map of the GFS is right here,to much WAA,that is not all snow in Mid Tn

National Weather Service Nashville TN 222 PM CST Wed Jan 12 2022 .DISCUSSION... Beautiful mild mid-January day across Middle Tennessee today with clear skies, occasionally gusty southwest winds and current temperatures in the upper 40s and 50s. Continue mild weather is expected tonight into tomorrow with lows only dropping into the 30s and highs on Thursday once again in the upper 40s and 50s. A fast-moving clipper system will race across the area Thursday afternoon and early evening, and although low levels will be fairly dry a few light rain showers are possible - mainly in our northeast counties - which could briefly end as light snow showers. Temperatures will cool down a bit behind this system with lows falling into the upper 20s to low 30s Friday morning, and highs topping out in the 40s on Friday afternoon. This weekend continues to be a forecasting nightmare as 12Z model suite indicates a closed upper low pressure system takes an unusual U-shaped path from the Plains across the Gulf Coast states then up the East Coast, bringing a long duration precipitation event to Middle Tennessee from Saturday into Sunday. Exactly where this upper low and its associated surface features track has major implications on whether we will see wintry weather across Middle Tennessee. In general, models indicate strong WAA ahead of the upper low will keep mild air in place most of Saturday, with precip staying as mostly rain, before the atmosphere cools at all levels Saturday night and Sunday as the low moves near then east of our forecast area, leading to a mix of rain and snow with a changeover to all snow before precipitation ends. GFS continues to be further north with its track versus the ECMWF, and thus has a rainier solution than the more wintry Euro. Very difficult to pinpoint potential snow amounts due to these track differences, but overall currently appears our western and northern counties have a better chance to see some accumulating snowfall with this system while our southern and eastern areas have a lower chance. Forecast soundings indicate this will mainly be a rain or snow event, although some sleet is possible albeit more unlikely. WPC and model liquid QPF totals range from 0.5 to over 1.5 inches with this event, suggesting parts of the area could see another significant snowfall - which would be our third this month if it occurs. Hopefully the models come into better agreement over the next couple of days for sanity`s sake. After this system, dry and colder weather makes a return for the first part of next week.

Nina getting or gonna hit with everything,ER,KW,MJO.Warming in the east,cooling in the west.