jaxjagman

the band fixing to come though looks better,we might have some heavy snow in a few min

yeah we are gettting the last burst it seems

24 here

You will,just look at those convective bands coming at you from the SW

Yall are fixing to get clocked in the east..lol

that convective line to our west is getting its act togethermwe might hit 6" if it does,up to about 3 now

Odd,we didnt have much of any mix here

Yup

Looks like another band is building in the west

should be on you

yeah that convective band has held firm,we should be closing in on 2 in now already

man,the winds are howling with sideways blowing snow,this is so cool..lol

You're in the sweet spot for sure

ripping by my house http://traffic.brentwoodtn.gov/201173a.htm

http://traffic.brentwoodtn.gov/201044.htm Nice

Nice,loop this you can see it https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/?initsatsrc=On&initsatname=GOES-E&initsattype=swir&initcscheme=ir1&initimdimx=1050&initimdimy=555&initrange=38.000:-93.250:32.500:-80.750&initloop=True&initnframes=20&initlightningge=On&initlightninggw=Off&initltngfed=Off&initltngtoe=Off&initinterstates=On&initwarnings=On&initlatlon=Off&initascatb=Off&initascatc=Off&initascatambb=Off&initascatambc=Off&initsst=Off

Help of a KW and MJO,we've got a +TNI right now

MJO looks like it could possibly strenghten into the IO/Maritime the next several days.Euro shows a upper level ridge into East Asia around this time next weekend followed by a trough into East Asia.Possibly a time frame to watch i believe around the 3rd week of March.

Models are hinting at a decent Upper Level Ridge into the 2nd week of March around the Mid Atlantic along with a Caribbean HIGH,we could see some strong storms upcoming along with some potential hydro probs down the road if the models dont back down

Subsurface is cooling east of the IDL,Resilient NINA going on right now.Lots of the seasonals keep NINA going on into summer.This along with could potentially be a active Hurricane Season it seems right now and possibly Severe.CFS shows a KW moving across East of the IDL the next few days.Still think the best analog year from the past decades is 2012,but into Met spring it was starting to warm in the east,not like right now.See what it looks like in the several days.

Little more convection shown this afternoon,most of us should see a fllood watch it seems right now < Day 2 Outlook WPC Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Outlook Risk of 1 to 6 hour rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance at a point Updated: 2027 UTC Sun Feb 20, 2022 Valid: 12 UTC Feb 22, 2022 - 12 UTC Feb 23, 2022 Forecast Discussion Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 340 PM EST Sun Feb 20 2022 Day 3 Valid 12Z Tue Feb 22 2022 - 12Z Wed Feb 23 2022 ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI, TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS... ...Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys... Showers and thunderstorms should be ongoing across Missouri/Arkansas into the Lower Ohio Valley at the start of the period, ahead of a shortwave trough tracking from the Central Plains into the Upper Midwest. While instability is expected to be weak across the region Tuesday morning, standardized precipitable water (PW) anomalies of +3 will be present along with confluent 850 mb flow of 40-60 kt. Areas of WSW to ENE training are likely early in the period with rainfall totals of 1-2 inches in an hour atop a region of the nation that has high soil moisture values (over 90th percentiles for 10-40 cm depth) and low flash flood guidance values. Weakening of forcing and moisture values through 00Z Wednesday should transition the event to more of a longer duration and less intense rainfall for the latter half of the outlook period. Model guidance was mixed with placement, but the 12Z NAM appeared too heavy and north with its axis of QPF. Better deterministic and ensemble placement for 2-4 inches of rain was located closer to the Ohio River, with magnitude of rainfall and probabilities lowering with eastward extent into Ohio, West Virginia and southwestern Pennsylvania. However, flash flood guidance values of only 1-2 inches in 3 and 6 hours was present across the central Appalachians, and these values might be exceeded despite the lower rainfall intensity later in the period. ...Lower Mississippi to Tennessee Valleys... As a surface low tracks northeastward from the Midwest into New England Tuesday/Tuesday night, a southwestward trailing cold front will extend across the Lower Ohio Valley to Southern Plains. Moisture return ahead of the cold front combined with daytime heating should allow for increasing instability from the Lower Mississippi Valley into Tennessee, Mississippi and Alabama. Southwest to northeast oriented convergence, parallel to the deeper-layer mean flow, will be in place across the southern U.S. which should support an axis of training convection, mainly from 21Z Tuesday through 12Z Wednesday. Rainfall rates of 1-2 inches in an hour are likely given the moisture and instability in place, and training could support 2-4 inches of rain. Model agreement on this axis was good on its occurrence but not as good with placement. Therefore, the existing Slight Risk area inherited from continuity was expanded a bit into southwestern Tennessee and northeastern Mississippi, in accord with the latest model spread. With the increasing signal for 3-4+ inches, there may be a need to upgrade to a Moderate Risk as the event gets closer, but confidence in its placement is too low at this time. Otto

lol..i was directing that to me for my post last evening,its all good

Shouldnt have said winter was over,i really dont know that,especially the higher elevations.But when in see ridging building in Korea that generally means the same here,models are hinting at that into the first week of March. CFS seems to have some destructive interfernce with the MJO signal and shows it moving further east and fast.But this seems to be by a KW moving into that region which it is showing.I think you are more right the MJO looks to be in the WP

Yeah downtown Franklin might be under water,we will see.Euro seemed tohave back down somewhat this afternoon