jaxjagman

Hydrologic Outlook National Weather Service Nashville TN 516 AM CST Sun Feb 20 2022 ...Flooding Possible Washingtons Birthday through Friday... Moderate to heavy rainfall will impact Middle Tennessee Washingtons Birthday through Friday afternoon as two distinct weather systems move across mid state region. As of this time, total rainfall amounts will range from around 3 inches southwest to approaching 6 inches northwest through Friday afternoon. Currently corridor of heaviest rainfall amounts look to be across northern portions of mid state region as Tuesday progresses. There may be a brief lull in rainfall on Wednesday. However, another round of heavy rainfall is expected to arrive Wednesday Night and last through at least Thursday night, with heaviest rainfall amounts expected Thursday night. Soil moisture continues to remain relative high especially across northern portions of mid state region. Due to this rainfall potentially causing additional rises on rivers, several rivers across area could reach action if not flood stage as week progresses. Flash flooding could also be possible across mid state region. While the exact location of higher rainfall amounts not yet totally certain, it is imperative that if you have interest near areas that are known to flood, that you pay close attention to rainfall forecasts over the upcoming week. Updated information concerning this rainfall event will be provided during morning hours on Washingtons Birthday.

Long range models did a decent job somewhat with the Subtropical ridge it seems.Question still looms what convection comes it,severe if any also.IMO winter is over after the trough going through East Asia today.There seemingly will be a SER setting up for us in the long range

Auburn lost again,i'm still not convinced they are the team to beat in the SEC.Problem with Auburn is they don't have a great PG.There PG's are not consistent.,make stupid passes and to me anyways are like ball hawks going to the basket.Fun team to watch for sure,but elite enough to win it all?I dont think they are unless Pearl can fix them. I still think if Ky can heal there troops.They might go further in the tourney than any SEC team right now.Calipari always brings out his best when it counts.JMO

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CST Wed Feb 16 2022 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA REGION EASTWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley, Mid-South, and Southeast on Thursday. ...Synopsis... Phasing of a northern-stream upper trough crossing central Canada and the north-central U.S. with a southern-stream trough crossing the southern Rockies/southern Plains will occur Thursday, with eastward progression of the consolidating feature expected. This system will be characterized by very strong deep-layer flow on its southeast flank, across the south central into the eastern CONUS. At the surface, a deepening low is progged to be shifting eastward out of Oklahoma across the northern Arkansas/far southern Missouri region through the day, and then northeastward along the Ohio Valley into the evening hours. A broad, moistening warm sector will exist across the Mid South and Southeast, until a cold front, advancing eastward with time, ushers in colder/drier air. This front is expected to reach the Mississippi Delta region during the afternoon, the Appalachian crest overnight, and then extend from the Mid-Atlantic region to the Florida Panhandle by 18/12Z. ...Arklatex region eastward across the Mid South and central Gulf Coast region... Widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms will be ongoing at the start of the period from southeastern Kansas southward to eastern Oklahoma and Arkansas and into northeastern Texas at the start of the period, near and ahead of the advancing surface low/cold front. Meanwhile, largely elevated, warm advection-induced convection will extend northeastward across the Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys and vicinity. While meager CAPE is expected early in the period, strong flow aloft suggests that locally damaging wind gusts will be a possibility from the Arklatex region eastward toward the Mississippi Delta area through mid afternoon. With time, deepening of the low and associated strengthening of low-level southerlies will allow persistent northward theta-e advection to combine with modest/local diurnal warming, eventually yielding evolution of mixed-layer CAPE up to about 500 J/kg. Across Kentucky and areas north, a cool boundary layer should persist, resulting in slightly stable conditions beneath evolving, modest instability. However, this thermodynamic concern is partially offset by stronger ascent aloft spreading across this region -- along with the deepening low expected to track along roughly the Ohio River through late afternoon and into the evening. With this ascent likely to maintain partially forced convection, and given exceptionally strong/veering flow with height across this region, potential for locally damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes remains a possibility. Farther south, greater low-level theta-e advection suggests that the boundary layer will become at least neutral, and therefore greater certainty of surface- or near-surface-based storms exists -- both near the advancing cold front, and also with associated warm advection-driven bands of convection in the free warm sector. As noted above, very strong shear -- with south-southwesterly 850 mb winds in excess of 50 to 60 kt increasing to west-southwesterly at 70 to 90 kt at mid levels -- is suggestive of supercells, and attendant risk for damaging winds and several -- and possibly locally strong/damaging -- tornadoes. As such, an upgrade to enhanced risk is being introduced, centered across the Tennessee Valley area from late afternoon through the evening hours. ..Goss.. 02/16/2022

Someone is going to get dumped on if the long range models are right.Mid Level ridge around the Caribbean and Upper Level Ridge around the MId Atllantic.No clue about severet but hydro would suggest with this pattern some serious flood potential somewhere

CIPS best analog for the upcoming days looks better in the East 3-6-92,mainly wind it seems right now.That was freaking nuts in Cen Fl March of 92 https://www.weather.gov/media/mlb/surveys/record_hailstorms.pdf

Maybe yall will do something and see a bit more,our dp's show alot of dry air so what the radar shows is nothing but virga mostly

we got some flakes flying around,its 29 now around here

Early March of 2012 had a outbreak,if it happens again who know https://www.weather.gov/meg/march2_2012_severe_event

I still believe the best analog year is NINA of 2011-2012 for us in the Valley,plus it matches up well with the ENSO.

If the CFS is anywhere right.It shows the Aluetian High what we possibly saw it into Dec in March again.This would promote a rather robust -PNA signal like we seen in Dec.

looks more like 2017-18,this is into April but still

Not sure if there is a great analog year,I think you should throw out some of those those years,i posted on the severe thread.Best match in recent decades could look like the 2017-18 NINA,But the map i'm posting is into April of 2018,but still looks like it could match up the best. https://site.extension.uga.edu/climate/2018/04/enso-update-increased-chance-for-el-nino-next-fall-or-winter/

Auburn escaped another win.Not sure what to think about this team.When they are on they are awesome but they seem to get over confident at times and look just bad.Great teams will put the dagger in you and never look back,tells me Auburn can be beat anyday.Kessler is a freak tho,so glad he came to Auburn

Seems maybe some cross breed from 2012 Nina to 2018 Nina.You can go beyond those times into the 1950's to the 1980 but GW is real.NINA looks like 1996,2001.2012,2018 and even 2021. 2012 was the off year with severe out of those years.But it produced some strong tornadoes east of 1-65 in spring and even the deadly Derecho in Chatty that year. Either way,the big record breaking -PNA in Dec since records were taking since 1950 with the help of the Aluetian High was set at -2.76 it was a big factor with our historic severe Fall season into Met winter https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.pna.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

Oh man,look at that.Makes me think of Phil

Not sure yet.CFS is parking the signal into the Maritime and Euro seemingly,that should possibly be severe leading into or around Met spring.

Rossby wave is going to work its way into the IO the next few days and a Kelvin Wave coming off Africa during the same period,plus you have a TC,MJO signal could and should get stronger into the IO

If they would fix North America,you wouldnt have to spend no more money,thats alot of charts they put out

ECMWF added stuff also,but some plots dont seem to update well in North America https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts

Its still cooling in the west and warming in east so a transition is on going

ill be in knoxville for my sons gymnastics meet Sat.,so let it happen

yeah i watch the radar in Mid Tn where we have barely anything it starts to explode as you get to the Cumberland,i believe that

Clippers are what they are here,they clip us,sometimes we get lucky and get a inch but they seem to do better once they start hitting the upslopes

coming off the lakes,could enhance it,could be more than showing