jaxjagman

Not as dry that run,assuming its right,it'd still be adding token flakes the day after Christmas

Looking more likely as we get into the 3rd week of Dec we could see a stretch of days not even getting above freezing...JMHO.We'll pay the piper it seems as we get into Jan the way the MJO is looking,hopefully we can get some snow out of this before.Be a shame if we dont

Wonder if the GFS is gonna be actually close to what its showing on the thermals around Christmas,Thats some height drops in East Asia,havent seen that in a few years.

Cumberland

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 572 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southeast Arkansas Northern and Central Louisiana Central Mississippi * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 1210 PM until 700 PM CST. ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION... * Primary threats include... Numerous tornadoes expected with a few intense tornadoes likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Supercells are expected to develop this afternoon and track northeastward across much of northeast Louisiana and central Mississippi. Parameters appear favorable for strong and long-tracked tornadoes this afternoon and early evening. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles north of Fort Polk LA to 55 miles south of Tupelo MS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 AM CST Sun Nov 27 2022 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... CORRECTED FOR WORDING ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with wind damage and tornadoes, along with some hail, will be possible from the Sabine River Valley and lower Mississippi Valley north-northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. A significant severe-weather event will be likely across parts of the region. ...Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley/Sabine River Valley/Eastern Ozarks... A highly progressive upper-level trough will move quickly into the southern and central Rockies on Tuesday. Ahead of the system, a broad 40 to 60 knot low-level jet will transport low-level moisture northward across east Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley, where surface dewpoints should reach the lower to mid 60s by midday. In response to moisture advection and surface heating, moderate instability is forecast to develop by early afternoon across much of east Texas and Louisiana. Isolated to scattered convective initiation will be possible in the early afternoon from near the instability axis eastward across the lower Mississippi Valley. A severe threat will be possible with this activity. Moisture will continue to advect northward into the eastern Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley during the late afternoon and early evening. This will set up a broad corridor of moderate instability across much of the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. As the upper-level trough approaches from the west, the low-level jet is expected to strengthen into the 50 to 70 knot range by early evening. This combined with increasing deep-layer shear, associated with an approaching southern Plains mid-level jet, will make conditions very favorable for severe thunderstorms across the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. NAM forecast soundings along the axis of strongest instability, from northeast Louisiana into eastern Arkansas, by 03Z Wednesday have MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear in the 60 to 70 knot range. This combined with a long and looped hodographs, with 0-3 km storm-relative helicities in the 400 to 500 m2/s2 range, will be favorable for supercells and tornadoes. A few strong tornadoes will be possible with the more dominant supercells that remain discrete. The most favorable area for strong tornadoes may develop along the western edge of the low-level jet, as is forecast by the ECMWF, from eastern Arkansas into northwest Mississippi and western Tennessee. A tornado outbreak will be possible across parts of the lower to mid Mississippi Valley, if the current forecast parameters, such as instability, deep-layer shear and low-level shear remain at current forecast levels. In addition to the tornado threat, the potential for wind damage will likely increase during the evening as storm coverage and the chance for cell interactions increase. Mid-level lapse rates are also expected to be steep, which should support a hail threat with the more intense cells. The extent of moisture return will determine how far north-northeast the severe threat develops. At this time, it appears that at least some severe threat will be possible during the evening and overnight period as far north as southern Illinois and southwest Indiana. A categorical upgrade will be possible in later outlooks. ..Broyles.. 11/27/2022

Just dont want no freaking split of the SPV.Last few decades when we get the SSWE and it splits our winters are garbage,might be different this time if it does but lately it hasnt been.

Last year we had the best fall severe season EVER.Seems like we could possibly see the MJO signal possibly strenghten into the WP as we head into Dec once again.Archive map is from last year and of course this is no forecastJust seems to me we could see a potential uptick in severe typical places like the Ozarks,Mid South,lower MS/Valley into Dec

Went to Brentwood HS,couplet fizzled out,just winds and a light show

Damn Volsmi'm pulling for you guys next week,Auburn is a dumpster fire,no hope for us

124 mph gust,Punta Gorda

Starting to think the lack of fireflies around here is more related to the development in Williamson Co.But we still have woods,but we also had a bigger deer population around here,even those are getting scarce but that has to do with development i am sure

Subsurface in the east ENSO has been cooling lately,not much left there.SOI the last couple weeks is acting like a NINA again.We did good last year here with snow into winter.We also did good in fall severe season if the Aleutian Low gets set up.Ready for winter

Can someone explain the lack of fire flies this year,its so odd.I usually go out on my deck at dusk and the bats are every where chasing them,i havent seen one bat this year.I had a fire fly land on my monitor the other night and i turned my lights off to watch it flash..lol.Just so weird not seeing them

Southern parts of South Korea is fixing to take a big hit by the models from the phooon.Tropical system in the east looks like a fish storm,OTS.I'm ok with that because like you mentioned it would be like starting the furnace up again for us,unusual quiet season tho this year in the tropics,more like a NINO year.So ready for fall !!

Other than the SOI not in sync right now and the warm east ENSO,we are about where we was in Dec last year with a pool of subsubsurface temps hitting -6c again.Get rid of that warm east ENSO, severe fall season might be something to watch again

Euro and GFS has a recurving phoon into the Sea of Japan possiibly but it just gets absorbed by a trough.Euro seems to show a mid level ridge building into the Central Plains today in the long range so the storm(tropical gen if it happens) it seems could just meander around the Bahamas for a couple days.There seems to be a trough going through East Asia the middle of the week,so that could be a player if the storm hits between Florida and the Carolinas or OTS.Least the weather got exciting to me anyways

We're getting the screw job here

Ever since when you posted this the standing wave popped up west of the IDL along with the strong EWB.The ENSO isn't acting like a typical ENSO.Think if the SPV can stay weak along with a more Modoki look like APEC shows it might not be that bad of a winter and not be a debbie downer,see the next update or two.Subsurface for right now is down to -5C east of the IDL again.Still a pretty healthy NINA with all the fake jabs it's put out to switch out

Parts of the NW Tn is in a extreme drought and around the Ozarks,rest of us is in a moderate.severe west of I-65 and in the south,just as bad around Chatty,Alabama/Tn line .We got some rain yesterday and early this morn but would have liked more.Boundary should lift northward around Sunday so maybe some training cells,anything is better than nothing.Brutal summer here and especially west of us

Been spoiled the last couple years,we haven't seen a heat wave like this in quite awhile.Yard was beautiful a couple weeks ago, not no mo.After the CF passes this week end,looks the same next week.Weird to say enjoy the lower 90's for a couple days,go outside when you can..lol

18/`9/4

Pretty strong MJO signal into the early parts of June into the WH/Africa along with a CCKW,should be a good shot to see some TG flaring up into the GOM,Caribbean possibly ,during this time