Jump to content

jaxjagman

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    8,688

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by jaxjagman

  1. jaxjagman
    teleconnections on the GEFS seems to want a +ao/-pna,not what you would like to see in the long range right now
  2. jaxjagman
    I swear Kentucky has the most weird basketball program,seriously thought Tn would crush them
  3. jaxjagman
    Starting to wonder if we are fixing to see the kiss of death for this winter as we head into Feb.CFS wants to show a standing wave into the WP,along with a strenghtening MJO signal,of course this could be wrong but you still dont want to see this
  4. jaxjagman
    GFS keeps hinting a REX block around the Aluetians long range,dont think we want to see that
  5. jaxjagman
    Keep seeing for a time being more ridge over Japan into South Korea,this should be more or less ridge around the Carolinas into the 3rd week of Jan but for a brief time after it gets broke down,we should turn cold again still towards the end of the month,but no clue about after,its probably just gonna be the typical up and down pattern we've seen lately but i'm not sure we really cool down until then,not much anyways,seem to me a period OF A/N is on the horizon
  6. jaxjagman
    lol...snow lovers hell,i like that
  7. jaxjagman
    Not sure i trust the CFS,seems to be showing a rossby wave with a Kelvin Wave crashing into the MJO and it blows up into portions of the IO,this probably should strenghten the MJO into the Maritime towards the end of the month
  8. jaxjagman
    Think you said it several days ago,pattern looks up and down right now,but i still think we turn much colder maybe towards the the end of Jan,maybe we can get a system for someone
  9. jaxjagman
    Dunno,dont like where the MJO is headed into Feb right now,seems to showing Maritime
  10. jaxjagman
    If the Euro is right we could get pretty cold for a spell into the last week of Jan
  11. jaxjagman
    Definite need to just watch and see what unfolds the next several days
  12. jaxjagman
    Dunno right now,think it was yesterday or the day before the GFS didnt show much of the winds dying down like today
  13. jaxjagman
    https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-zonal-mean-zonal-wind?area=nh&base_time=202301120000&player_dimension=base_time
  14. jaxjagman
    Leave it here for now,but something to watch the next several days
  15. jaxjagman
    Damn Jeff,when did you ever see GOES go warm like that in spring
  16. jaxjagman
    Doubt we see a SSWE,winds decelerate and maybe displace it but its still a brick
  17. jaxjagman
    For us in Mid Tn i use South Korea.Teleconnections factor in just as well and it's not 1 to 1 correlated meaning it can be wrong,but it does give you a hint of the pattern upcoming.In a couple days there is height rises in East Asia mean a blah pattern with height rises in the east but there is a trough at this time going through Mongolia into China,this would mean basically trough in the west rising heights in the east.So least to me it seems at this time the Euro could be slightly to fast with the pattern.But the pattern is 6-10 days,i always split it myself and go 8 days
  18. jaxjagman
    Myself East Asia seems more easier to decipher
  19. jaxjagman
    Think like Jeff said days ago we probably have to wait.The SPV was weak into Nov/Dec then the strong trades set in and the SPV went into brick mode.Now the winds seemingly will slack up but the SPV still looks strong and more displaced,wish Berlin didnt kill that site.MJO could get good for spell but right now seemingly this will be a fast MJO BACK into the Maritime and WP,Doesnt this seem like the 2011-`12 winter here right now,we got cold in Dec and again into Feb but March if i recall right didnt you guys get a couple late season storms in the east?There was no SSWE during this time.
  20. jaxjagman
    Even if its right we'd still be talking several days to effect us any even after that time stamp,then we'd have to see what kind of teleconnections are showing up after.
  21. jaxjagman
    Still shooting for the mid month.MJO gets out of the WP,Pacific Jet retracts,least we sould get out of the crud for awhile
  22. jaxjagman
    Should be a very active patterm we are seeing now into week2 of Jan if you like rain and severe in the cold season
  23. jaxjagman
    Even the Euro would seem to show a volatile pattern with all the moving parts,not sure the models will do a very decent job upcoming
  24. jaxjagman
    Not sure i agree with BAM unless the PAC craps out.Who knows right now.The SPV seemingly as we head into Mid Jan is gonna get displaced and weaken again as it goes into Greenland,least thats what the GFS says FWIW.The AO is showing signs it could fall out soon or least go -ve for a spell,still like to see a better NAO but even that is better than it looked yesterday.But the pattern we are in for the next couple weeks looks like cutters.I was looking at all the waves the GFS shows in the long range seems like a volatile pattern to decipher,proly best to stay away from the GFS MID/LONG range,its not gonna be right
  25. jaxjagman
    probably generally not to an extent but still gives you a hint,Like the Euro shows the signal of the MJO retrogrades into the WP when the majority of its ensembles shows it going into the WP.so i wouldnt say the CFS is that far off,but that dont mean its right either
×
×
  • Create New...