jaxjagman

Lets see those shelfie pics in the mountains

I was thinking this still has alot of potential growth to be a pretty strong NINO upcoming the MJO seems like it gonna get stuck into the WP well into May seemingly.1997 was still much colder than it was right now in the west.CFS seems to be hinting at a strong KW as we get into May that could upwell those warm subsurface temps,i'm not no pro like you are so its just IMHO..lol

They have the best afternoon storms when they kick off the StJohns River in between the Inter Coastal during the summer time.When i was younger me and a friend were at St Augustine beach when you could drive on it and was drinking some beer.We seen a storm coming behind us but we figured it was just a typical afternoon storm.All the sudden we heard all this banging and the winds cranked up,we turned and looked must have been a EF-O went right by us it cleaned someones upper deck,surf board lawn chairs whatever else,we watched it go right by us then it went into a water spout we watched the surfboard go out about 500 yards into the ocean,i tried to go get it after but it was to far out .Usually when you are at Jax beach or around that area you see the storm headed towards you but it rarley gets past the Inter Coastal,sea breeze

Miss living in Jacksonville https://www.icwr.ca/

Looks like maybe a pretty potent system around next weekend

Yes after that loose SPV in Dec it bottled up and we just got flooded by the Pac,usally happens anyways some what with back to back Ninas,surprised it wasnt much wamrer but we did break a few highs into winter

Only snow we got was from the Dec early cold snap and that was only a dusting.It was still interesting because i cant ever recall such a active season with LP'S cutting through Alabama and just as well Tn,we usually score here but the cold air was never in place

Think we are about due for a Indian summer,we've been pampered the last few years it seems.Not really sure where the MJO is headed.CFS seems to be the outlier right now,if it craps out into the Maritime/WP June and beyond could be rather warm, but who knows right now

Looks like we could be headed towards a high end moderate to a strong NINO upcoming.When the thresh hold goes above +1(130E-80W)this is always proceeded by this since 1980 a moderate to strong NINO,my theory for 2018 dont look that great no more,dont see nothing breaking this down for a bit. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt

I took that post off.i just noticed site hasnt updated in over a week

Think they busted on the highs today

The east warmed up fast,still looks to be a positve TNI but thats gonna fade away soon

That was a good storm just passed through,my radar showed the dbz around 58 around my house,Hardest rain ive seen in years for a brief time,other than that..just blah,it was still exciting

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0405 AM CDT Sun Mar 19 2023 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... Airmass modification and a northward flux of low-level moisture will occur across the southern Plains through mid-week, as upper trough amplification occurs over the Southwest. On Day 4/Wednesday, while a 15+ percent severe area is not currently warranted, some severe potential may exist near a surface low across Kansas and a front extending east-northeastward into Missouri/Illinois. For Day 5/Thursday, severe weather seems probable across portions of the southern Plains Thursday afternoon and Thursday night. Current thinking is that severe potential should be maximized near the advancing cold front across Oklahoma toward the Ozarks and near the southward-extending dryline into north/west-central Texas. All severe hazards are plausible. Severe-weather potential will likely persist eastward toward the ArkLaMiss/Lower Mississippi Valley and Tennessee into Day/6 Friday. This scenario will be supported by strong deep-layer/low-level winds, atop a relatively moist boundary layer ahead of a cold front and/or lingering convection from Day 5/Thursday night. Thereafter, guidance variability considerably increases into the weekend, with uncertainties regarding the details of subsequent severe potential. ..Guyer.. 03/19/2023

Horrible winter,our only snow came when we had the record breaking cold in late Dec,that was only a dusting

Still think its possible those warm SST'S ARE LIKE 2018 in East Asia,but we'll see.To many similarities right now,.2018 wasnt the worse in the mainland for tornadoes,but there was no EF4 OR EF5 that year This map shows the tracks of all tropical cyclones in the 2018 Pacific typhoon season. The points show the location of each storm at 6-hour intervals. The colour represents the storm's maximum sustained wind speeds as classified in the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale (see below), and the shape of the data points represent the type of the storm.

Seems like the models are fairly close today.Upper level ridge building to our east next Friday could bring a decent CF around next Friday.But already seeing signs of the blah cap,see what it looks like in a couple days

Not having a good night posting it seems The MJO is acting like 1997 with the exception it seems to possibly die out in the future it seems.In 1997 later into the year it built up a strong NINO

This pattern seems to warm Into the Yellow Sea and Sea of Japan like the vid shows and even into the Bering Sea Into East Asia there has been nothing but Ridges in this area since December and the SST's are around 1.5-1.8C above normal.If these warm SSTS hold on you could see a potential decent Baiu front into Japan into summer along with some potential strong phoons.

Tried to like it but it wouldnt let me for some reason.March is gonna have a rough go with that MJO signal,looks like winter will arrive when no one wanted it no more,least i dont.

APEC is leaning towards a weak Nino into Aug,tho some are showing a stronger one

Nashville BP dropped to 29.06.record is 29.02,quite a system

Jackson had a wind gust of 54kts,power outages being reported

He didnt say there was 0% chance he was referring to later on

GymTek