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Everything posted by jaxjagman
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Long range looks pretty crappy,right now.Models seem to want to build the Upper level ridge into South Korea/Japan into the 2nd week of Feb,this could very well build the Mid Level ridge(SER) the middle of Feb, maybe it will change but as we head into mid Feb that's not a cold look.
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Pretty active start of 2023 in Jan https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_tornadoes_in_January_2023
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Trough going through East Asia again yesterday and today,same ole same ole.Teleconnection nothing but a -NAO/PNA,,cold chasing rain look,ready for severe if we even have one
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Pretty much we've had a minor SSW but the next couple days the winds will pick up again,we never saw a complete reversal just a displaced Vortex ,still be interesting to see what happens later
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Last couple days the winds spiked up causing the temps to fall some.What the models today are showing these winds will nowl die off,we should see a temp rise the next day or two
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January 2023 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion Thread
jaxjagman replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
See what happens in the long range,Euro today wants to build a Big Rex block into the Ak,thats not good but there is a trough going through East Asia in a few days,seems possibe at least for now we cool down,warm up then a trough in the East into Feb sometimes in the first week of Feb- 923 replies
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January 2023 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion Thread
jaxjagman replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
Right but i wonder if this site is having the same issues,it dont really show any spike in temps until maybe today or tomorrow?Seems like the maps of what JMA shows we've already seen the winds decelerate last few days,not trying to nit-pick anything- 923 replies
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January 2023 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion Thread
jaxjagman replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
To an extent anyways,no SSW right yet- 923 replies
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January 2023 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion Thread
jaxjagman replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
Looks like we are seeing the winds decelerate- 923 replies
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January 2023 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion Thread
jaxjagman replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
Tomer Burg on twitter says the GFS/GEFS has had data issues into the Polar Vortex- 923 replies
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January 2023 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion Thread
jaxjagman replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
KW passing through the east has put a hurting on the ENSO in the east,CFS continues to show the the MJO getting stronger into Africa and moving into the WP,seems like a poop pattern if its right will happen again around Mid Feb or sooner- 923 replies
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January 2023 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion Thread
jaxjagman replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
Of course that HP might not be there tomorrow 240h out- 923 replies
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January 2023 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion Thread
jaxjagman replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
Might be wishcasting,but the big HP in the Upper plains if its further to the SE than being shown we could possibly see see a phase and something nicer than being shown,but we know how if works for us..lol- 923 replies
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January 2023 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion Thread
jaxjagman replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
Yeah the jet extension was brutal at times the last few weeks coming off Asia into NA,but we are now seemingly going back into a more Nina,with a active S/Jet.thats not that bad if you can get things to time right- 923 replies
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January 2023 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion Thread
jaxjagman replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
I know,it could totally screw up severe spring- 923 replies
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January 2023 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion Thread
jaxjagman replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
Pattern look wash rinse and repeat,been like this the past couple months it seems,should trun cold the end of the month,warm up for a few days then turn cold again shorlty after..jmho- 923 replies
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January 2023 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion Thread
jaxjagman replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
Nice Rex block around the GOA,Question should be the NAO and what the blocking does after as the Euro has some nice HP up around the N/Plains the end of that run- 923 replies
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January 2023 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion Thread
jaxjagman replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
Its still a brick right now- 923 replies
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January 2023 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion Thread
jaxjagman replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
Probably start watching the SPV around next weekend,winds decelerate and temps rise but thats not going to help out until weeks ahead if at all.But it should still weaken the SPV and displace it.I dont think you should even trust any model what it shows right now until it actually happens- 923 replies
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January 2023 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion Thread
jaxjagman replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
Thats not a horrid look if it happens,but it seems this pattern we are in is so progressive and we cant get nothing to lock in- 923 replies
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Fall/Winter Banter - Football, Basketball, Snowball?
jaxjagman replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
I dont know about Tn but i feel the goal is to get into the tournament,plus would be to win the SEC tourney.Think most fans feel that way.But Ky fans dont seem to feel that way,you have to win the big dance or we will get rid of you,just bizarre to me -
Fall/Winter Banter - Football, Basketball, Snowball?
jaxjagman replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Yeah they have consumed alot of talk on our sports talk radio stations here calling for JC to get fired,then they pull off this upset.But this is KY basketball it seems,you never count them out,just strange tho -
January 2023 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion Thread
jaxjagman replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
I do agree a better PNA would squash that S/Jet.we'd probably see a BETTER hp to the NW possibly even somewhere into the Cen Plains,jmho- 923 replies
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January 2023 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion Thread
jaxjagman replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
I agree we seem to be finally getting the Pac Jet out but now we deal with the S/jet,arggg- 923 replies
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January 2023 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion Thread
jaxjagman replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
Even East Asia has been changing the last couple days.GFS want to build a Aluetian Rex block, the Euro seems to following it but not a Rex,East Asia looks cold for a couple days but then it warms back up.Aluetian high would mean a SER,POOP PATTERN- 923 replies
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