jaxjagman

wonder how the globals incorporate the data at this time frame in the Valley,its rare to have cold air to be in place already...dunno

National Weather Service Nashville TN 207 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Sunday Night) Issued at 200 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Our main concerns continue to be the developing bitter cold and snow. After temps fall below freezing tonight, they are not expected to reach freezing again until Thursday. Cold wx precautions should be implemented, and we encourage plans to make warming shelters available throughout the next several days. Significant snow accumulations are expected to begin Sunday evening and continue through the day Monday and into Monday night. Our forecast shows 3 to 4 inches for most of the area. Our northwest counties may come in on the low side of that, while some enhanced bands of snowfall could produce localized amounts of 5 to 6 inches in some spots along and south of I-40. Before the big storm arrives, we will have a cold frontal passage tonight that will reinforce the Arctic air. This front will be accompanied by a brief band of snow flurries or showers. Areas along and north of I-40 may see a dusting late tonight, especially for areas along the KY border. Sunday will be dry for most of the day and very cold. Highs will not climb out of the 20s for most of us. Light snow will start to spread into our far western counties after 3 PM. Light snow will blossom across the area Sunday evening, then the intensity will gradually increase late night. By daybreak Monday, most areas will see the ground getting covered, and up to 1 inch may accumulate for the west half. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Saturday) Issued at 200 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 A Winter Storm Watch remains posted for Sunday evening into Tuesday morning. Models have come into better agreement confidently depicting widespread snowfall amounts in the 3 to 5 inch range. This will occur as a broad upper level disturbance crosses the region with deep cold air already in place. Often we deal with precipitation type changes in our winter forecasts, but this one will be all snow. A 120KT upper level jet stream will set up with Middle Tennessee located under the favorable right entrance region throughout Monday. Moisture will be deep through the atmosphere and forecast soundings show very favorable thermal and moisture profiles for the growth of snowflakes. The area will also be within a low to mid level frontal convergence zone. All of this means high confidence in snow with potential for enhanced bands of snow setting up, giving locally greater totals, perhaps 5 or 6 inches in some spots. It is hard to know exactly where the bands will develop, but even the generalized totals of 3 to 5 inches will cause significant travel impacts. Also, with such cold air in place, the snow will stick right away and it will stick around as temps stay sub-freezing until Thursday. The cold air with the snow and after the snowfall will not be record-setting (most records are well below zero), but it will be dangerous for vulnerable populations as wind chill values will fall below zero. So, a wind chill advisory may ne needed, especially early Tuesday morning and early Wednesday morning. As if the early to mid-week wx festivities were not enough, we are looking at another shot of accumulating snow later in the week, perhaps 1 inch for late Thursday into Friday! &&

NAM shows a warm nose now all the way to Nashville,steals some of the snow fall here into zr/ip at times

Looks like the % of WPC this morning,they show parts of the Cumberland getting smacked

I know its more Mesoscale but the NAM blew away the GFS and Euro the last tornado outbreak here,it did very well into its extended range.Im not saying its gonna be the same outcome as this,i'm just saying

More like where these short wave troughs will actually be at,it dont mean the NAM is right

Plateau gets hammered by that run

Nam is going more north it seems right now

You can issue a WSW outside the window,but i think most mets frown on it,who ever issued it must feel pretty comfident

Maybe we can score on the next system,the Euro would bring a warm nose to us tho with the LP crossing into N/Al.the GFS shows more of a inverted trough down into Cen Al.everyone would benfit from the GFS into Tn

.LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Friday) Issued at 125 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 On Sunday, that upper low over the Great Lakes will reinforce cold air over our region and only allow for high temps to get into the 20s and 30s. A weaker trough will allow for a stationary boundary to linger over the mid state for the start of next week, allowing for a decent shot at some good snowfall accumulations. Models continue to waver and dont increase confidence at all with snow amounts as latest ensembles have shifted the snow axis ~100 miles to the southeast, but, the boundary, isentropic lift, and other synoptic factors are starting to point to the potential for the mid state to see accumulating snow. Ensembles show a few members at higher end amounts, dragging the mean higher, but there has been a slight uptrend in forecasted snow amounts since the previous run. We will see what the next runs have and hopefully show some consistency to increase confidence on location and magnitude of snow. The GFS/NAM show decent isentropic lift Sunday night through the day Monday, with some convergence as well as Q vector convergence hinting at pockets of banded snow potential during the day Monday. Soundings show deep saturation in the low levels just a little warmer than the DGZ, but still enough lift for good snowfall potential. GFS and its ensemble suite showing the highest potential for snowfall right now compared to other models, likely due to stronger synoptic forcing, frontogenesis, and a little more surface moisture. We will see if that holds. The one thing that has remained consistent is the cold temperatures, so unlike other snow events, this event will start and finish as snow across the area, which will further support accumulating snow. Temperatures next week are already going to struggle to get above freezing until Thursday, but any higher snowfall amounts will result in low temperatures dropping further than forecasted. Right now, the coldest night will be Tuesday night, having lows in the single digits and wind chills in the single digits below zero. Light snow looks to continue Tuesday and may result in some additional light accumulation, but at the very least, a cloudy day will prevent the sun from showing up during the day. The sun should return Wednesday with above freezing high temps Thursday. Unfortunately another trough will swing in Friday, bringing rain and snow potential along with colder temps into next weekend.

I was just glancing at the news and they said a house was hit by lightning in Gallatin

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpfhsd

Always could be wrong,it kills it but rebuilds it after again

GFS is the only model that kills the NW,artic air pulls out to quick,in MHO its a outlier that run

be nice if the CMC would break its losing streak

It would be a bummer if we dont get much of anything as active as this pattern has been as of late

.LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Thursday) Issued at 203 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024 So we get beyond tomorrow, and again, let`s not look past tomorrow, as the wind threat is likely to cause significant impacts, but then we have to start looking at the snow potential Sunday night into the first half of the week. Models are still not in great agreement regarding how this is going to unfold. I think I can say, we`re still very confident it`s going to snow Sunday night. Placement of the highest amounts still look like they are going to be along and north of I-40, especially in the Land Between the Lakes area. However, now the latest suite of models wants to stretch out the snow potential from not just Sunday night, but into Monday and Tuesday, as well. Sunday night into Monday would have the higher totals, but a secondary wave could bring additional snow to the area, especially east of I-65 on Tuesday. On the whole, the probability of exceeding 1 inch anywhere in Middle TN is something like 60-80% across most of the area. But as we start talking about the potential for anyone getting 3 inches or more (Winter Storm Warning criteria), now we`re falling into the 30-40% category and that`s been relatively consistent over the last couple of days. Hopefully by Saturday, we`ll have a better grasp on how things are looking for Sunday night into Monday. Now the cold. As the snow comes to an end, a CP airmass will drive into the mid-south and TN Valley. This is going to bring sub- freezing temperatures to the area for an extended period of time. Teens and single digits will be pretty common every morning next week, with Tuesday and Wednesday mornings looking the coldest. Low to mid single digits are still progged. Much like Sunday after the winds die down and colder air enters the picture, keeping an eye on vulnerable populations is going to be imperative mid-week as afternoon highs under 32 degrees look probable.

ooops,left that out

National Weather Service Nashville TN 210 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Friday Night) Issued at 203 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024 If you stepped outside, you`d think it was March. 50s across the board this afternoon and with plenty of sun and a little breeze, I think we`ve been able to mix down some of the dry air we saw in this morning`s 12Z OHX sounding. Dew points have struggled to get to 30 degrees across the northern 2/3 of the mid-state. In any event, if you haven`t been able to get out and enjoy today, give `er a try. Things will go downhill quickly starting tonight. By midnight tonight, a very sharp trough over the center of the country will develop a surface low near Arklatex that is expected to bomb out as it moves into the Ohio Valley tomorrow afternoon. This is going to cause a multitude of issues across the region, from severe weather to extremely strong gradient winds. Let`s start with the gradient winds, because in my estimation, this is going to cause the biggest problems. Winds will start to ramp up by midnight tonight, especially for our counties west of I-65. By sunrise, as our Wind Advisory goes into affect, southeast gusts of 30-45 mph will likely be occurring across the whole area. Peak gust time looks to be in the noon to 3 pm time frame. Gusts of 40 to 50 mph with occasional gusts to 55 mph are going to be possible. Much discussion was had about the potential for issuing a High Wind Warning, however, in coordination with most surrounding offices, we`ve held off on issuing that product and stuck with a very high-end Wind Advisory. In any event, these winds are going to cause downed trees and scattered power outages across Middle TN. The stink about this is the cold air that filters in behind the system. It`s not the coldest of what we`re going to see in the next 4-6 days, but if you don`t have power, it`s going to feel like it. Be sure to pay extra special attention to vulnerable populations tomorrow. On top of the gradient winds, there is at least a low-end severe weather threat. We talked about this yesterday and honestly, not much has changed. Our warm sector GREATLY struggles to develop tomorrow morning with dew points barely reaching 50 degrees. This is going to keep CAPE values at 100 J/Kg or lower. Now, if we do end up getting a bigger push of dew points, then yes, the severe threat will go up -- and with helicity values where they are, we can`t ignore the possibility of an isolated spin-up. The more likely scenario is the potential for any convection to enhance the straight line wind threat that we already have, even outside thunderstorms. Look for a weak line of convection to start moving across the TN River mid-morning tomorrow and it should exit the Plateau around 3-5 pm in the afternoon. Strap in. We`re not done yet.

Why you should not trust anything especially next week To many moving parts and the storm itself isnt even on the west coast yet