jaxjagman

Still don't' believe the Euro is right with the MJO.it's having distructive interference from the CCKW in the Maritime right now and in the end it will be in the WH much quicker than its showing

CFS has been much faster with the signal,shows it getting into the WH before or about the next 2-weeks

GTH Outlook Discussion Last Updated - 01/16/24 Valid - 01/24/24 - 02/06/24 Following a period of weakening over the Indian Ocean earlier this month, the MJO became much more organized during the past week. Latest RMM observations show the MJO signal propagating eastward into the Maritime Continent (phase 4), and steadily gaining amplitude, which is well reflected by a reemerging wave-1 pattern in the 200-hPa velocity potential anomaly fields. A large uptick in MJO amplitude is heavily favored in the dynamical models during the next week, which appears to be tied to constructive interference with a convectively coupled Kelvin Wave propagating out of the Indian Ocean. This wave phasing is likely to promote widespread enhanced convection over the Maritime Continent, which has been otherwise persistently dominated by a suppressed convective El Nino response. Even with the MJO continuing to destructively interfere with the low frequency El Nino conditions, intraseasonal activity is largely favored to remain coherent during the next several weeks. Very good agreement exists in the RMM forecasts depicting a high amplitude event propagating eastward into the Western Pacific during the next two weeks, where the MJO looks to eventually constructively interfere again with base state over the Equatorial Pacific. Ensemble spread increases in the extended range, however many solutions (especially the GEFS) continue to maintain a high amplitude event, taking the MJO signal back into the Western Hemisphere by the first or second week of February. A healthy, eastward propagating MJO is expected to provide increasingly favorable conditions for Tropical Cyclone (TC) development over parts of the southern Indian Ocean, as well as the Western Pacific on both sides of the Equator. And in light of aforementioned convective pattern reversal favored over the Maritime Continent in the near term, this could induce a stronger MJO teleconnection in the extratropics downstream. Wintertime Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent MJO events typically lead to the development of anomalous mid-level ridging with warmer than normal temperatures over the central and eastern U.S. This is consistent with the latest week-2 guidance, however there is also both model and historical support for the associated anomalous mid-level ridging to retrograde over western North America with time, potentially allowing for the return of colder than normal temperatures over parts of the U.S. heading into February.

Euro seems to be showing more of a inverted trough into Mid Tn compared to the GFS,thats why you dont see such a strong LLJ into Mid Tn,its snow to the north and mixing towards the AL/Tn line here in Mid Tn.GFS

Euro shows a 35-45 LLJ,over Mid Tn,lower elevation wont stand a chance here basically up to the Ky line

Think thats where Flash lives

Yeah we did good with this system,should be around 8" so far,ill go out and measure it later today

Mountains play havoc with weather,its 12 here

I know,for some reason when i try to load the 2nd pic it says its to big

I tried,its never done this before

Thought the NAM was the big winner in our parts,EURO was the big loser

Server isnt allowing me to post all together for some reason

Short range models still show the secondary later on

thats a nice band fixiing to hit theCunberland

i saw Nashville should have a decent shower,we seem to have gotten split this time

kinda hit a lull recently but picking up again should be getting some decent snow here soon

Thx you look to be under a decent band right now

NAM is gonna thump the Globals once again even in its extended range of it,im getting impressed with it myself as of late

some bigger flakes now here,we look to be 2-3" right now,radar look good again to our west recently https://g1.ipcamlive.com/player/player.php?alias=brentwood201173a

not sure about Chatty tho,look more of a mix right now

Starting to fizzle out in the NW,models though have shown this.HRRR shows it snow tho in most of all Tn through the day it seems

My wife says the same thing,did you lock the door

Yeah yall should be getting what we are soon,moderate snow here now