jaxjagman

National Weather Service Nashville TN 138 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Monday Night) Issued at 130 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 No major changes will be made to the forecast for the very cold and snowy weather coming our way. A Winter Storm Warning remains in place area-wide from 6 PM today until 6 am Tuesday. Snow was already crossing the Ms River early this afternoon. Short range models show the snow spreading rapidly eastward into our area late this afternoon and evening. Snowflakes should start to fall in our western counties by 4 or 5 PM. By midnight, the ground will likely be covered for most areas along and west of I-65 with an inch of fresh powder, and up to 2 inches for some spots. By daybreak Monday, much of the Mid State will have snow cover, averaging 1 to 3 inches. Then, the second main wave will move across the area late Monday morning through afternoon with the greatest additional accumulations focused along a band from Waynesboro and Lawrenceburg northeast to Crossville and Jamestown. Models have become as agreeable and consistent as we can hope for with winter wx in our region. We are still expecting all snow with event totals averaging 1 to 3 inches over our northwest counties and 4 to 7 inches across our southern and Plateau counties. Areas around Clarksville could come up a little short, especially with the second wave tomorrow falling mostly south of I-40. Some spots in the main band across the south and Plateau could over-achieve with 7-8 inches under locally enhanced bands. Nashville Metro is on the edge of the higher band, so a small shift in this band could raise or lower totals for Metro. The snow will taper off Monday night as temperatures plunge further. Lows by Tuesday morning will be around 10 degrees with wind chills down in the single digits below zero for much of the area. A wind Chill Advisory will likely be needed, but we will wait til later tonight or Monday before focusing more on the cold. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Sunday) Issued at 130 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 After the snow leaves, bitterly cold, dry air will grip the Mid State Tuesday through Wednesday. A fresh blanket of snow will enhance the cold temperatures. Highs will be limited to the teens for many areas on Tuesday and down near zero Tuesday night. The snow on the ground will not go anywhere through midweek with these frigid, yet not record-setting temperatures. Temps will finally climb above freezing Thursday just before another system comes our way with another chance for snow and another blast of Arctic cold air. Latest models show potential for up to an inch of snow with this fast moving system late Thursday through Friday followed by more bitter cold and dry air for the weekend. &&

Looks closer to the NAM what its been showing IMHO

yeah its definite showing more QPF this run

Yall did warm up,we went to 28 here but the last couple hrs its dropped to 26

Its already past,look at the WPC maps

I'd take that,it snows all day tomorrow basically.Short range models dont show much past mid morning here,sure there will flakes flying around most of the day

Yeah seems strange,this is even west of Nashville it shows ZR

Short range models look more faster with this system.HRRR even shows some mixing almost all the way to the Ky border but the thermal profiles dont support that

Good luck to yall,man you stole the snow dome from Nashville it seems

Ill watch it for the Friday system,Euro lost it today somewhat but the GFS still has it,who know at this point

Think its mesoscale now,i doubt the Euro will change much myself

National Weather Service Nashville TN 1054 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 852 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 We are about to take the cold plunge. Taking a look at some 00Z models tonight, messaging remains the same for 3 to 4 inches of snow to fall areawide starting Sunday evening and through the entire day Monday. Some areas could see larger accumulation amounts between 5 to 6 inches in any heavier bands that move through. Looking at the near term, the sharp cold front bringing the first real blast of arctic air is right on the cusp of western TN. The coldest air tonight will be across the western half as the cold front drapes across Middle TN. Lows across all of Middle Tennessee tonight will range from 10s in the NW to 20s in the SE. Highs tomorrow will struggle to reach 30 with many places struggling to reach 25. Temperatures are not forecast to get above freezing again until Thursday, so that is close to 110 consecutive hours below freezing. PLEASE check in on those most vulnerable and prepare accordingly for an extended period of bitterly cold temperatures.

The pic Reb showed below your post shows it

CF

Looks like we will warm up some again.MJO looks strong right now as it gets into the Maritime and WP,but we still should be under the influence of Nino,The SOI yesterday is showing more Nina 13 Jan 2024 1012.32 1002.65 23.84 -1.58 -5.00 12 Jan 2024 1011.79 1004.40 13.10 -2.63 -5.40 11 Jan 2024 1011.80 1005.55 7.73 -2.92 -5.60 10 Jan 2024 1010.99 1006.05 1.56 -2.96 -5.74 9 Jan 2024 1011.83 1006.90 1.51 -3.07 -5.76 8 Jan 2024 1013.35 1008.45 1.37 -3.46 -5.81 What the ensembles are showing into next week East China and Korea will see height rises for a few days then a trough will go through East Asia and just like earlier in the season the heights will fall again in those parts.It shouldnt be a brutal warm up least right now it seems in our parts

Id be happy to get WSW criteria right now,seems like we've been following this system since last winter...i'm getting tired..lol.Might be more wise now to follow the mesoscales.

wonder how the globals incorporate the data at this time frame in the Valley,its rare to have cold air to be in place already...dunno

National Weather Service Nashville TN 207 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Sunday Night) Issued at 200 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Our main concerns continue to be the developing bitter cold and snow. After temps fall below freezing tonight, they are not expected to reach freezing again until Thursday. Cold wx precautions should be implemented, and we encourage plans to make warming shelters available throughout the next several days. Significant snow accumulations are expected to begin Sunday evening and continue through the day Monday and into Monday night. Our forecast shows 3 to 4 inches for most of the area. Our northwest counties may come in on the low side of that, while some enhanced bands of snowfall could produce localized amounts of 5 to 6 inches in some spots along and south of I-40. Before the big storm arrives, we will have a cold frontal passage tonight that will reinforce the Arctic air. This front will be accompanied by a brief band of snow flurries or showers. Areas along and north of I-40 may see a dusting late tonight, especially for areas along the KY border. Sunday will be dry for most of the day and very cold. Highs will not climb out of the 20s for most of us. Light snow will start to spread into our far western counties after 3 PM. Light snow will blossom across the area Sunday evening, then the intensity will gradually increase late night. By daybreak Monday, most areas will see the ground getting covered, and up to 1 inch may accumulate for the west half. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Saturday) Issued at 200 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 A Winter Storm Watch remains posted for Sunday evening into Tuesday morning. Models have come into better agreement confidently depicting widespread snowfall amounts in the 3 to 5 inch range. This will occur as a broad upper level disturbance crosses the region with deep cold air already in place. Often we deal with precipitation type changes in our winter forecasts, but this one will be all snow. A 120KT upper level jet stream will set up with Middle Tennessee located under the favorable right entrance region throughout Monday. Moisture will be deep through the atmosphere and forecast soundings show very favorable thermal and moisture profiles for the growth of snowflakes. The area will also be within a low to mid level frontal convergence zone. All of this means high confidence in snow with potential for enhanced bands of snow setting up, giving locally greater totals, perhaps 5 or 6 inches in some spots. It is hard to know exactly where the bands will develop, but even the generalized totals of 3 to 5 inches will cause significant travel impacts. Also, with such cold air in place, the snow will stick right away and it will stick around as temps stay sub-freezing until Thursday. The cold air with the snow and after the snowfall will not be record-setting (most records are well below zero), but it will be dangerous for vulnerable populations as wind chill values will fall below zero. So, a wind chill advisory may ne needed, especially early Tuesday morning and early Wednesday morning. As if the early to mid-week wx festivities were not enough, we are looking at another shot of accumulating snow later in the week, perhaps 1 inch for late Thursday into Friday! &&

NAM shows a warm nose now all the way to Nashville,steals some of the snow fall here into zr/ip at times

Looks like the % of WPC this morning,they show parts of the Cumberland getting smacked