jaxjagman

I believe this is more ENSO than anything else.But that's JMHO 11 Feb 2024 1005.21 1008.95 -40.73 -8.94 -5.15 10 Feb 2024 1005.61 1009.10 -39.53 -7.15 -5.06 9 Feb 2024 1003.50 1008.45 -46.54 -5.57 -4.93 8 Feb 2024 1005.88 1007.85 -32.23 -3.97 -4.64 7 Feb 2024 1005.31 1008.70 -39.05 -2.84 -4.42 6 Feb 2024 1005.56 1009.50 -41.69 -1.50 -4.12 5 Feb 2024 1007.06 1009.90 -36.41 -0.02 -3.85 4 Feb 2024 1008.30 1009.40 -28.05 0.94 -3.66 3 Feb 2024 1007.67 1007.55 -22.19 1.65 -3.51 2 Feb 2024 1006.85 1008.15 -29.01 2.20 -3.36 1 Feb 2024 1007.27 1008.65 -29.40 3.19 -3.02 31 Jan 2024 1009.49 1009.45 -21.52 4.18 -2.70 30 Jan 2024 1009.93 1009.15 -18.04 4.81 -2.50 29 Jan 2024 1009.71 1008.55 -16.25 5.81 -2.29 28 Jan 2024 1010.40 1008.00 -10.41 6.71 -2.02 27 Jan 2024 1011.41 1007.50 -3.29 7.10 -1.83 26 Jan 2024 1012.20 1008.10 -2.40 7.08 -1.83 25 Jan 2024 1011.37 1008.40 -7.72 7.07 -1.81 24 Jan 2024 1011.85 1008.10 -4.05 7.35 -1.78 23 Jan 2024 1010.69 1007.45 -6.45 7.18 -1.77 22 Jan 2024 1010.29 1005.50 0.85 6.48 -1.69 21 Jan 2024 1010.18 1003.25 10.93 5.24 -1.69 20 Jan 2024 1010.92 1003.10 15.13 3.85 -1.89

Euro looks totally different from last night.I'll still hold a slim chance but the globals have been mostly consistent with the southern system being more suppressed,plus we still dont even know what the teleconnections will be like

Yes,we live in a different world climo wise than the east,after you get over the mountains its a different world.This is also the reason why we see more tornadoes in our parts compared to the east

The high in the Atalantic,if its stronger and even more westward than being shown should be ample enough to change the steering pattern and change the storm from going into North Florida

Our last storm here in in MId Tn in Jan we had a -PDO/-PNA-NAO,chart is the EPO.I still think we have a chance for a storm or at least some S word but i'm not sure we'll see the -NAO we saw in Jan 2023 12 28 -1.71 2023 12 29 -36.25 2023 12 30 -0.77 2023 12 31 -8.59 2024 01 01 -16.35 2024 01 02 -14.37 2024 01 03 71.51 2024 01 04 199.53 2024 01 05 196.56 2024 01 06 81.39 2024 01 07 34.24 2024 01 08 65.26 2024 01 09 94.10 2024 01 10 0.67 2024 01 11 -60.09 2024 01 12 -43.39 2024 01 13 -0.39 2024 01 14 -23.32 2024 01 15 -161.03 2024 01 16 -231.80 2024 01 17 -207.17 2024 01 18 -195.44 2024 01 19 -168.61 2024 01 20 -33.35 2024 01 21 61.72 2024 01 22 88.66 2024 01 23 105.73 2024 01 24 108.20 2024 01 25 46.39 2024 01 26 54.46 2024 01 27 111.99 2024 01 28 104.89 2024 01 29 115.66 2024 01 30 98.16 2024 01 31 21.32 2024 02 01 13.72 2024 02 02 30.50 2024 02 03 8.65 2024 02 04 -40.74 2024 02 05 -57.45 2024 02 06 -33.05 2024 02 07 34.99 2024 02 08 47.94

Yeah i wasnt laughing at the post,the soup in funny

We could get a storm in the long range if the teles work in our favor it seems maybe just a slim chance.The last couple days there was a system going into the Yellow Sea and South Korea basically,so chances are we should see a system further south of us.Right now looking at the teles its gonna be to far south and not really much ample cold air,just something to watch Sure looks cold tho by Euro AK Rex block and -NAO,probably just cold for us here and more chances if anything for the eastern people

This was the 4th strongest DMI since 1980 this last fall,all of the other years always resulted into a NINA on the ONI,into the summer months,plus all three other times before hit a moderate to strong NINA.Seemingly in 1994 this was just a Moderate NINO compared to 1997 and 2019,strong.This year is strong(2023) 1997 and 2019 were proceeded by with multi NINA years ,strong NINAS ,but theoretically you could also say 1994 was actually more NINA driven into the pattern for multiple years 1994 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.1 1995 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.5 -0.8 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 1996 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.5 1997 -0.5 -0.4 -0.1 0.3 0.8 1.2 1.6 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.4

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS 8 February 2024 ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory / La Niña Watch Synopsis: A transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is likely by April-June 2024 (79% chance), with increasing odds of La Niña developing in June-August 2024 (55% chance). During January 2024, above-average sea surface temperatures (SST) continued across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. SST anomalies weakened slightly in the eastern and east-central Pacific, as indicated by the weekly Niño index values [Fig. 2]. However, changes were more pronounced below the surface of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, with area-averaged subsurface temperature anomalies returning to near zero [Fig. 3]. Although above-average temperatures persisted in the upper 100 meters of the equatorial Pacific, below-average temperatures were widespread at greater depths [Fig. 4]. Atmospheric anomalies across the tropical Pacific also weakened during January. Low-level winds were near average over the equatorial Pacific, while upper-level wind anomalies were easterly over the east-central Pacific. Convection remained slightly enhanced near the Date Line and was close to average around Indonesia [Fig. 5]. Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected a weakening El Niño. The most recent IRI plume indicates a transition to ENSO-neutral during spring 2024, with La Niña potentially developing during summer 2024 [Fig. 6]. Even though forecasts made through the spring season tend to be less reliable, there is a historical tendency for La Niña to follow strong El Niño events. The forecast team is in agreement with the latest model guidance, with some uncertainty around the timing of transitions to ENSO-neutral and, following that, La Niña. Even as the current El Niño weakens, impacts on the United States could persist through April 2024 (see CPC seasonal outlooks for probabilities of temperature and precipitation). In summary, a transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is likely by April-June 2024 (79% chance), with increasing odds of La Niña developing in June-August 2024 (55% chance; [Fig. 7]). This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. A probabilistic strength forecast is available here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 14 March 2024.

Seemingly the Euro and CFS are close to being on the same page right now .CFS has been showing the velocity getting back into the IO and even Maritime into March,it just recently back down and now as we head towards the end of the first week of March its now into Africa just getting into the Western IO

GEPS shows the same thing

This looks like a persistent NINO into spring possible early summer,so we in general would see a more early spring than later severe threat,dont mean it can't happen,but the odds of it are reduced

LOL

Mean while in Central and East China

Here was the SOI back into Dec before our cold shot and the SOI today,who know if it turns out as before,surely shouldnt be as cold if it does turn cold 5 Feb 2024 1007.06 1009.90 -36.41 -0.02 -3.85 4 Feb 2024 1008.30 1009.40 -28.05 0.94 -3.66 3 Feb 2024 1007.67 1007.55 -22.19 1.65 -3.51 2 Feb 2024 1006.85 1008.15 -29.01 2.20 -3.36 1 Feb 2024 1007.27 1008.65 -29.40 3.19 -3.02

The map you quoted me at is the wind reversal.To be a major SSWE you still need the temps at 10hpa to rise around 25 degrees,this is probably the easiest site to read the temps,there is nothing happening right now as the temps look steady the last couple days https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/

Just shows the potential for a SSWE https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/readme.html

The mean has been pretty consistent with bringing the MJO into around phase 8 today and is even just as consistent the last few days with the stopping point.It's having a hard time in the WP.yesterday it was fairly clustered by day 5,not as much today

thats pretty wild

In the past few years parts of Nashville to the north of it has been like a tornado magnet,we havent had one here since 2020.Best area of severe though has always been along the TN/MS/AL border But yes,home insurance has certainly spiked up.

Cold soccer season is not fun.I remember those days when my kids played

This updates in our afternoon each day.But the ensembles are pretty clustered D5 going back into the WP,then by D10 about to be or getting into the WH so we might have to wait until the last week of Feb to get colder it seems like to me

Hudson anyone

Could be the kiss of death for early severe which was what i was thinking could happen

Sports has gotten out of control in all areas because of money and the fans are the ones that are paying for it Baseball look at how the Dodgers found a way to exploit the Ohtani contract,Hes getting paid a annual salary of 2M$ plus deferred payments of 68M$ between 2033 TO 2043 so they can just try and win a championship. Look at the NFL,they are now trying to make this into a international and PPV game.Look at all the price hikes some teams are doing starting next season is just insane.Plus the Super Bowl,for a 20 person suite you pay between 1.4M$-2.5M$, for up to 20 people that is insane,price of a beer$20,if you wanna a hot dog its only $12.75..lmao Now to college sports what are the rules?The NCAA has been corrupt now for decades.It seems the BIG-10 and SEC are getting pissed off and maybe had enough and formed a advisory group together this week,but its hard to read between the lines what is going on.But NIL ,shoot some college players soon will be able to retire before even leaving college if not already The sports world has become Insanity for fans,it's suppose to be entertainment not a business not for you morage your house to watch a game,its out of control !!