jaxjagman

My son has a gymnastics meet in Knoxville tonight,i'll wait until the severe potential to pass then i am headed that way

Us in Mid/Tn the cap should be gone now ,Window looks between 10-12 for severe,rest is wind

Winds are picking up for sure.NIA 10 min ago reported a 38kt gust

Try this one https://www.windy.com/-Show---add-more-layers/overlays?gust,2023030215,36.473,-89.253,5,m:eNpadfB

We probably should have started a thread just for wind..lol..thats gonna seemingly be the bigger story

Be relly surprised if they dont expand that risk further east in a bit with that wind shear showing

National Weather Service Nashville TN 223 PM CST Thu Mar 2 2023 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Friday) Issued at 201 PM CST Thu Mar 2 2023 Go outside. Enjoy this tranquil weather. Tomorrow is not going to be like this. Partly to mostly cloudy skies and winds 10 mph or less is quiet compared to what we`re expected tomorrow. Let`s start with tonight. As I type this, an already intense closed low system has dug into northern Mexico. This system will eject northeastward over the next few hours and as it does, a severe weather outbreak will begin over ArkLaTex. They`re going to be in for a long night. At the same time, a warm front will be lifted through Middle TN. Mostly showers, maybe a few thunderstorms are expected here at home. Initially, we were concerned about the potential for a few strong to severe storms with the warm front, but it looks like we`re not going to destabilize near enough for any intense storms. However, as the night goes on and the upper low becomes negatively tilted over Arkansas and deep, strong cyclogenesis occurs, the pressure gradient will tighten tremendously over the region. This is going to do two things: 1.) pull more moisture/instability into the area and B.) it will make the wind blow as though a severe storm is over the whole area. The combination of instability nearing 500 J/Kg and great forcing along the front will open the door for severe storms. Mainly, damaging straight line winds will be the threat with any storm, but low-level helicities nearing 250 m2/s2 will also cause storms to exhibit some rotation, so a tornado or two is also possible. Of course, all of that is fine and dandy, and while we might issue a few warnings, I really think the bigger story of tomorrow is going to be the gradient winds. For the first time in my 16+ year NWS career, I have preemptively issued a High Wind Warning. This will replace the Wind Advisory completely and run from 6 am to 6 pm CST. Here`s why this is going to be significant: winds are going to gust 45 to 60 mph probably before storms get to wherever you are. This will open the door for trees to fall (especially with grounds already wet) and power outages to occur. This means you will need to have your smart phone charged to 100% TONIGHT and make sure you have fresh batteries in your NOAA Weather Radio so you can reliably get warnings if the power goes out. This is going to be a unique situation and we need to treat it as such. Gradient winds aside, models continue to show storms breaking across the TN River around 7-8 am tomorrow morning and traversing Middle TN through the mid-afternoon hours. Winds will start to subside around sunset in the west and last a few more hours in the east. In regards to the flood threat, QPF value are not sky high. I do believe we can see the light at the end of the tunnel as far as that`s concerned. However, with several spots seeing 3 inches last night, additional rainfall tonight and again tomorrow over the same areas could cause at a minimum localized flooding. For this reason, I will maintain the Flood Watch, though it could be cancelled early if rain totals look even smaller than what I`m seeing now.

< Day 2 Outlook WPC Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Outlook Risk of 1 to 6 hour rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance at a point Updated: 1952 UTC Mon Feb 27, 2023 Valid: 12 UTC Mar 01, 2023 - 12 UTC Mar 02, 2023 Forecast Discussion Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 302 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2023 Day 3 Valid 12Z Wed Mar 01 2023 - 12Z Thu Mar 02 2023 ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF TENNESSEE... ...Mid-South... Low-amplitude southern stream shortwave energy embedded within strong, and increasingly diffluent mid to upper-level west-southwest flow aloft downstream of the longwave trough over the Southwest will be interacting with a quasi-stationary front draped across the Mid-South for multiple rounds of convection late Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night. The convective threat will be facilitated by an increasingly moist and unstable boundary layer pooling along and south of the front with aid of a 30 to 50 kt low-level jet. PWs are forecast to rise to locally over 1.5 inches over the Mid-South with these values reaching as much as 2 to 3+ standard deviations above the mean. A dual moisture feed regime is forecast with a combination of low-level Gulf of Mexico moisture working in tandem with the northeast transport of mid to upper-level eastern tropical Pacific moisture which is already seen pooling in the latest CIRA-ALPW imagery. MUCAPE values are forecast to rise in the vicinity of the front to between 1000 to 1500 J/kg and this coupled with deep layer forcing associated with the aforementioned shortwave energy, increasing vertical shear, and larger scale placement of right-entrance region jet dynamics/forcing should result in regional development of organized convection. Multiple convective clusters are expected that will tend to be aligned west-southwest to east-northeast with the deeper layer mean flow and this will be suggestive of a threat of repeating/training cells. Rainfall rates are likely to reach up into the 1 to 2 inch/hour range with the stronger/organized convective cells and with some storm totals that may reach up into the 2 to 4+ inch range given concerns for repeating/training cells. The latest NASA SPoRT soil moisture data indicates relatively moist antecedent conditions across portions of the Mid-South and this is suggested as well with USGS data showing locally above normal streamflows. Given this and the environmental support for heavy rainfall, a sizable portion of the Marginal Risk area was upgraded to a Slight Risk with an emphasis on Tennessee where the best overlap of moist soil conditions and heavy rainfall potential overlap. Isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding will be possible across this region. Orrison

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2023 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ON D4/THU... ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4... A regional outbreak of severe weather appears increasingly likely Thursday afternoon and Thursday night including the potential for large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes, some of which may be strong. Available guidance is in ample general agreement with the east/northeastward-ejection of an upper trough from the southern Rockies early Thursday to the Ozarks/ArkLaTex by late Thursday night. Owing to a stalling/decaying front early this week, respectable low-level moisture will exist across much of the Deep South in advance of this approaching upper-level system and its related intense deep-layer wind field. Current thinking is that this severe potential should steadily increase across central/eastern Texas and possibly southeast Oklahoma during the day. This risk should only increase/further organize into Thursday evening across the ArkLaTex/ArkLaMiss and Lower Mississippi Valley, and eventually the Tennessee Valley late Thursday night. ...Friday/Day 5... Severe-weather potential is expected to continue to Friday across the Southeast States including Georgia/north Florida and the Carolinas, and possibly as far north as parts of the Mid-Atlantic. This will be as the upper-level trough races northeastward from the Lower Mississippi Valley toward the Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic States. Very strong deep-layer winds will coincide with a modestly unstable warm sector ahead of a cold front and/or residual convection from Thursday night. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes could occur across the region. ...Saturday/Day 6 through Monday/Day 8... An inactive few days with limited deep convective/severe potential is currently expected this weekend into early next week. High pressure will likely be increasingly established east of the Rockies as richer low-level moisture is shunted toward the Gulf of Mexico. ..Guyer.. 02/27/2023

Next week might be interesting Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2023 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ON D5/THU... ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4... West-southwest mid-level flow will be in place on Wednesday as moisture advection occurs across much of the Southeast. Thunderstorms will be possible across the moist sector from east Texas eastward across the Gulf Coast states and northward into the mid Mississippi Valley. At this time, any severe threat is expected to remain isolated on Wednesday, due to weak instability and limited large-scale ascent. ...Thursday/Day 5 and Friday/Day 6... An upper-level trough will move quickly eastward on Thursday from the Desert Southwest into the southern Plains. By late afternoon on Thursday, model forecasts develop a corridor of moderate instability in east Texas and have strong deep-layer shear present over much of the southern Plains. This environment should support severe storms capable of large hail, wind damage and perhaps some tornadoes. A widespread outbreak of severe weather will be possible beginning Thursday afternoon and continuing into the overnight period. The potential for severe storms should shift eastward across the lower to mid Mississippi Valley and into the central Gulf Coast states Thursday night where the threat for wind damage, hail and tornadoes should continue. On Friday, the upper-level system is forecast to move northeastward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. The greatest potential for severe storms would be from eastern parts of the southeastern states northeastward into the Carolinas. Any line of storms that can persist or develop during the day on Friday, could have wind-damage or tornado potential. However, the overall threat on Friday should be less than Thursday, as the upper-level trough moves further northeast away from the stronger instability. ...Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8... On Saturday and Sunday, high pressure is forecast to settle in across much of the continental United States. This dry and cool airmass should make thunderstorm development unfavorable in most areas. ..Broyles.. 02/26/2023

Thought the Euro was more like the GFS...lol,but both seem to be having problems with the H5,which at this range should be common.To give credit to the GFS (cant believe i'm giving it praise at this range)it's been consistently showing the H5 closing off and the Euro just recently picked up on this.This right now seems like a hydro problem with recent rains leading up to this event,either way it seems right now a pretty potent system

His facts are totally wrong for Nashville,hes just trying to spew his anti global warming with JB.It's certainly a fact our warmest temp in March came on March,20 of 1982 when it hit 86.Why dont he post how Nashville shattered a record high last week and almost broke the all time record high for Feb by a degree...hmmm

Me watching Auburns point guards

Been like this all winter,some great storm tracks time to time,you'd typically expect to cash in but nothing

Ive been looking at 2018 but right now the MJO was more progressive than now,not sure this seems like it could become more active now as we head towards the bookend of March into April,if the MJO can stay active

Pretty strong MJO signal into 8 upcoming.I'm starting to think our best shot at severe for the next few weeks will come over the next few days

We got some flakes flying in with the mist

finally a tornado by Parker Crossroads,its been showing rotation

yeah if you look at the map i posted it should be along there

Yeah shook my house a couple times

ational Weather Service Nashville TN 639 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2023 ...New MESOSCALE UPDATE... .MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL... Issued at 628 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2023 The 12Z sounding from OHX shows a moist, highly-sheared, and potentially unstable atmosphere already in place. Fortunately, the radiosonde release took place before the current storm moved over the office, so the profile is uncontaminated. The current surface-based CAPE is 0 and the LI is also 0. However, the forecast surface-based CAPE is 879 J/kg with a corresponding LI of minus-4. The mid-level lapse rate is 7.2 C/km, so this suggests the potential for strong updrafts especially with the help of the cold frontal boundary this afternoon. The observed 0-3 SRH is a robust 530, which is about what we expected with this environment. The wind is 48 kts at 900 meters AGL, so there is a considerable amount of low-level wind shear already present. Finally, the precipitable water value is 1.41 inches, which is a record high PWAT value for this date/time. The mid-level dry layer which was showing up on previous soundings, including just 6 hours ago, has completely disappeared. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 218 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2023 This is turning out to be a very interesting forecast for February! I might have even forgotten for a bit that it is barely mid February. We had a few strong storms overnight with the warm sector but this has transitioned to a heavy rainfall threat at the moment. 06Z sounding had a surface cape of 62 J/KG but a PW of 1.20 inches. Cancelled Watch #34 for our CWA as convection seems to be elevated and HRRR shows the CAPE really dropping off through 10Z. Fully expect additional watches later this morning and afternoon with the very strong cold front. Severe parameters from the 06Z HRRR is very impressive today especially this afternoon and early evening. It has very high shear and helicity through the day. MUCAPE picks up near the Tennessee River by 15/16Z to 1100+ J/KG and spreading to Nashville Metro by 18/20Z of 1200+ J/KG and then dropping to 500-700 J/KG by 23Z. Timing is very challenging as it seems like the potential for severe weather will be through the day. It might be easier to say when it will end and that will be with the cold front. Making an educated guess...the best timing is just out a head and with the front...or from noon west to 6 pm east. Please stay weather aware as all severe weather types of straight line winds...hail...and tornadoes will be possible. The HRRR supercell composite and Significant Tornado Parameter really highlights several areas across middle TN from 18-00Z. Please stay weather aware and please encourage your social network to do the same. Once the cold front passes it will be on the cold side tomorrow with highs in the upper 30s to middle 40s.

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=mesoscale_01&x=1549&y=645&z=2&angle=0&im=60&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&maps[borders]=white&lat=0&p[0]=cira_glm_l2_group_energy&opacity[0]=1&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6 Moved North of us now but it woke me up a few times..lol

Quite a convective system overnight here,looking like some of the rains the models were showing came in a few hrs faster

We just live in a weird environment seemingly.The mountains wreck havocs on snow or severe

ay 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2023 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST OHIO... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are likely from the central Gulf Coast states northward into the Ohio Valley on Thursday. Several tornadoes are possible over Mississippi and Alabama, including the risk for isolated strong tornadoes. ...Synopsis... An elongated positive-tilt upper trough will extend from the upper Great Lakes into the southern Plains by 00Z, with a primary/leading midlevel jet over 110 kt from MO into Lower MI and a dry slot developing from St. Louis to Lake Erie. After 00Z, a secondary wave will move from the southern Plains toward the lower MS Valley, with increasing height falls and strengthening winds aloft across the southeastern states. At the surface, low pressure will move from southern IL into OH by 00Z, reaching New England by Friday morning. A cold front will extend south from the low, crossing the MS River by late morning, and proceeding into the mid OH/TN Valleys by late afternoon. Meanwhile, a warm front will extend east from the low Thursday morning, across central IN and OH. Southerly winds across the warm sector will maintain a plume of 60s F dewpoints as far north as the surface low, with mid 60s F across the lower MS Valley. More substantial moisture will be in place over LA, with upper 60s F translating eastward across southern MS/AL and the FL Panhandle by Friday morning with the cold front roughly from western PA to FL by this time. A broad area of 40-50 kt southwesterly flow at 850 mb will exist atop the entire warm sector, enhancing low-level shear. The combination of a moist air mass and favorable shear over a large area will likely support corridors of severe storms, including a few tornadoes through the period. ...LA...MS...AL... A cold front will move into western MS and south-central LA by midday, where ample moisture will be in place. Storms both along and ahead of the front will be possible as the air mass will be uncapped, with upper 60s F dewpoints likely sufficient to support surface-based parcels. Effective SRH around 300 m2/s2 will be common along the eastern edge of the instability plume, and supercells will be possible with tornado risk. As height falls and winds aloft increase overnight, the cold front will continue to support strong to severe storms, with 50 kt flow at 850 mb and mid to upper 60s F dewpoints from southern AL into the FL Panhandle. Hodographs will be quite favorable for tornadic supercells, with the primary mitigating factor being cool/marginal boundary-layer temperatures. ...OH Valley into TN... Storms are likely to be ongoing across much of TN and KY, perhaps extending into northern MS and along the AR/MS border, within a warm advection regime beneath 50-60 kt 850 mb flow. The instability axis will be near the MS River Thursday morning, thus storms across western areas may have tornado or damaging wind potential at that time. Much will depend on existing storm modes at the beginning of the day, as heating will be limited, and outflow may both provide a focus for new development or stabilize portions of the warm sector. During the afternoon, areas of air mass recovery may occur ahead of the cold front and behind the early day storms. In addition, some of the existing storm complexes could evolve/reorganize across KY and TN. Shear profiles will strongly favor supercells with tornado threat, but little heating and ongoing precipitation may limit surface temperatures. Farther north, a dry slot should clear out much of the area around IL and northern IN, but southern IN into OH will remain sufficiently unstable for severe storms given strong shear. The area along and east of the surface low track may favor isolated supercells, assuming the surface air mass can warm into the mid 60s F. ..Jewell.. 02/15/2023