jaxjagman

Maybe When we had the SSW earlier in Jan it effected the atmospheric Rossby wave train to some degree. around this time frame there was also a real strong Equatorial Rossby Wave,so the balance got thrown off with the pattern,so this could possibly be why our pattern went to junk seemingly

Composites in March with the MJO into the phase 3 and not into the Maritime.there is some lag time but not the degree we see here in our parts.Then you factor in with our lag here in NA with the ENSO should be something similar.I'm starting to think what was said a few days ago by some might be right

I dunno,just seems like the MJO could be getting destructive interference from the EKW

GEFS might be more right with the MJO.It could be what some of the other models are showing the signal into the Maritime is actually because of a Equatorial Kelvin Wave.Dont know if it will be right,it dont seem to have much support

Porobably be a bit before we figure it out.The KING and Queen seem to be fighting

Take that back,we moved to Lawrenceburg a couple years after the F5 hit Lawerenceburg a couple people took me on a tour where the tornado path went through there,think we moved to Nashville in 2010,not really positive on the exact dates but i dont remember it getting that cold

I guess it can.Last time it happened here was 2007,but we moved here about three years after,we didnt get those temps in Jacksonville,we was starting to hit the beach...lol

Seems like me there is going to be a strong Kelvin wave moving off AFRICA the next few days and excite the MJO and strenghten the signal into the Maritime,so much for my IO thinking it would go

The mean has been aiming basically skipping the cold phases for the longest time and dont seem to be backing down

12Z shows a stronger cap compared to the 6z building into parts of Tn through the day on Tuesday,less severe look if you dont like severe

GFS is showing a chance of severe Monday night into the Mid South,West Tenn,but this could also just be a shortwave its showing and might not be there next run seemingly,Tuesday could get interesting,GFS keeps showing alot of invergence into the warm sector,but this could be typical GFS bias at this range.Climo the best severe and tornado chance would be into Al/MS.

GTH Outlook Discussion Last Updated - 02/20/24 Valid - 02/28/24 - 03/12/24 RMM observations show a westward retreat of the MJO signal over the Western Pacific earlier this month, but the MJO has since resumed its eastward propagation and has moved into phase 8 (Western Hemisphere) in RMM space. Consistent with model guidance since last week, a much weakened MJO is generally favored in the RMM forecasts, with model solutions showing the signal mostly remaining within the unit circle during the next two weeks. However, there is some question as to whether this weakening is reflective of a disorganizing MJO or the removal of the 120-day mean which is strongly skewing the MJO signal to the right in RMM space. Upper-level velocity potential anomaly and OLR forecasts suggest the latter, which depict a more coherent MJO moving forward. Anomalous lower-level westerlies forecast continue to enhance probabilities for tropical cyclone (TC) development for the southwestern Indian Ocean through early March. It has been an active week for TCs around the globe, with 5 TCs that formed in 4 different basins. In the South Pacific, TC 15P formed east of the Cook Islands on February 15 and quickly dissipated. In the Australia region, TC Lincoln formed in the Gulf of Carpentaria on February 15 and moved inland quickly, bringing heavy rain to northwestern Australia. In the South Indian Ocean, on February 17 TC Djoungou formed east of Madagascar. It moved southwestward and became very strong before weakening and transitioning to an extratropical system. On February 18 TC Eleanor formed, also east of Madagascar. It is currently still active, meandering near Mauritius, and is currently forecast to eventually move towards Madagascar. For the latest information on TC Eleanor please refer to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). Finally, a rare South Atlantic TC formed southeast of Rio de Janeiro on February 18. It strengthened and was named Akara on February 19, and is currently tracking south. Despite a relatively weak RMM signal among forecast models, other indicators of MJO activity suggest a stronger MJO than might otherwise be expected. Upper-level velocity potential anomaly forecasts portray a weak to moderate MJO taking shape during weeks 2-3, with increasing anomalous divergence aloft over Africa and into the Indian Ocean as the forecast period progresses. This results in a moderate probability (>40%) for TC activity in the southwestern Indian Ocean during weeks 2-3. Interestingly, Indian Ocean MJO (phases 2 and 3) events historically lead to decreased chances for TC formation near Australia and the Maritime Continent but guidance from both the GEFS and ECMWF suggest a higher chance for TC genesis during the forecast period across the northern Australian coast than might otherwise be indicated, possibly due to Rossby or Kelvin wave interference. The large-scale environment is expected to remain weakly favorable for TC development over the southeastern Indian Ocean during week-3, and 20% chances for TC genesis are issued for portions of the northern Australian coast. The precipitation outlook for weeks 2 and 3 is based on potential TC activity, the anticipated state of the MJO, and a skill-weighted consensus of GEFS, CFS, Canadian, and ECMWF ensemble mean solutions. Above-normal precipitation continues for the Equatorial Eastern Pacific for both weeks, a response to the El Nino conditions, while suppressed precipitation is favored to the north and south of the El Nino-enhanced precipitation. Continued below-normal precipitation is indicated for portions of northern South America for week-2, and above-normal temperatures are likely for eastern Brazil during both weeks. Above-normal precipitation becomes more likely over the western Indian Ocean as the next MJO cycle begins during the forecast period. During week-2, above-normal temperatures are likely for the eastern U.S., much of Brazil, portions of western Australia, and much of southern Africa, while below-normal temperatures are favored for eastern China.

MJO is going into 1-2

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/

Actually matches up pretty decently with what the EPS is showing which would be into the 2nd week of March,least it does today

About to move to severe with Jeff...not sure how much is left in this winter

This was yesterday

Its now in the Euro range but this far out use with caution

This is what the Euro showed 2 days ago,so it fluctuates daily,But there still should be a trough in the east into March by the looks in East Asia

Still believe this is a colder pattern as we get into March,2m's map is the Euro

That's actually brutal if you want cold by the Euro this afternoon,looks more severe now into March with a trough trailing it.Plus the Euro mean more members are trying and skip the cold phases

I'm not knocking Jeffs map either,it's stamped the 8-15th,it certainly could look like that at one point

I still think it should turn colder as we get into the first week of March. There is a ridge building on top of Kazakhstan into the Urals all the long range models show this with basically troughing into Mongolia,Koreas and even down into the East China Sea,that shouldnt be a warm look

That was a BIG ridge into the Atlantic for Feb,2018,that's like a summer time ridge and not winter time

GEFS looks like a couple days away but by the JMA we already hit the Major