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jaxjagman

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  1. jaxjagman
    Auburn basketball has had a brutal schedule so far.Houston,Iowa St, tonight NC and next week Duke,dont think anyone else has had such a brutal schedule,its like playing in the Big Dance before conference play..lol
  2. jaxjagman
    Storm surge alone is gonna be brutal once again into Tampa Bay seemingly right now,they surely don't need to get hit again right now
  3. jaxjagman
    We went to my wifes dads house in St Pete this week to just help clean things up and move what we could salvage and move it into storage inland,he has Parkinsons disease and cant do to much on his own,his house was under 4-feet of water,thats someones boat in his swimming pool,its still there no one has claimed it as of yet
  4. jaxjagman
    This is my wifes,dads house in St Pete,they just refurbished the swimming pool this year and its ruined now.it also has a boat in the pool,we dont know whos boat it is yet
  5. jaxjagman
    It was brutal for you in the east of us,wish we'd have started a thread for it,its definite a historic event ,especially you guys east uf us
  6. jaxjagman
    We had a unique set up last storm with the ULL and the ridge to the east,might not see that ever again in our life time
  7. jaxjagman
    I dont see this is possible myself
  8. jaxjagman
    Models keep showing tropical genesis in the GOM in the extended time frame,my thinking is the models are to fast ATM with this trough which should steer the potential TC,guess we'll see but i think this trough the models are showing is to fast,this should have some steering mechanics where the cyclone does go
  9. jaxjagman
    Would be wild to feel the effects of three tropical systems here in one season,we rarely feel much effect here from one when ever 2. Western Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico: An area of low pressure could form over the western Caribbean Sea in a few days. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development thereafter while the system moves generally northwestward, and a tropical depression could form during the middle to latter part of next week as the system enters the Gulf of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
  10. jaxjagman
    We 've had around 3-4" here so far,should possibly get a couple more,its definite gonna be a drought buster for us which i'm happy about
  11. jaxjagman
    Yeah you guys out in the mountains be safe,nothing like south of us but still
  12. jaxjagman
    Think it was 110 at that time the TWC said 120,maybe they were talking gust,dunno
  13. jaxjagman
    DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Helene was located near latitude 27.9 North, longitude 84.6 West. Helene is moving toward the north-northeast near 23 mph (37 km/h). A continued fast motion to the north-northeast is expected through landfall in the Florida Big Bend this evening. After landfall, Helene is expected to turn northwestward and slow down over the Tennessee Valley on Friday and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Helene is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is expected, and Helene will likely be an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane at landfall. Weakening is expected after Helene moves inland, but the fast forward speed will allow strong, damaging winds, especially in gusts, to penetrate well inland across the southeastern United States, including over the higher terrain of the southern Appalachians. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km). A weather station at Venice Municipal Airport recently reported a sustained wind of 46 mph (74 km/h) with a gust of 69 mph (111 km/h). Another observation near Venice Beach reported a sustained wind of 51 mph (82 km/h) with a gust to 66 mph (106 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters is 951 mb (28.09 inches).
  14. jaxjagman
    Think there is a banter thread for the storm,maybe ask there
  15. jaxjagman
    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSAT4+shtml/262042.shtml
  16. jaxjagman
    Cant imagine driving to Atlanta and the nightmare that could happen,especially with potential mudslides/winds in the mountains,hopefully people take detours.But you cant fix stupid can you ?
  17. jaxjagman
    Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 855 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Day 3 Valid 12Z Thu Sep 26 2024 - 12Z Fri Sep 27 2024 ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...2030Z Update... In coordination with all of the impacted offices, the Moderate Risk was expanded north to include much of the east facing slopes of the Southern Appalachians with this update. What is forecast to be Major Hurricane Helene is forecast to make landfall in the Big Bend Region of the Florida Panhandle Thursday evening. Around and well ahead of the arrival of the center of circulation, bands of locally very heavy rain will impact all of the Florida Panhandle and portions of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula. PWATs with Helene are expected to be nearly off the charts, as the much larger than normal hurricane draws nearly unlimited moisture from the much warmer than normal eastern Gulf and efficiently converts it to heavy rainfall. Areas of the Florida Peninsula east of the track will contend with storm surge along the coast, which will impact drainage from the heavy rain...resulting in excessive rainfall flooding due to poor drainage. Thus, the Slight continues along the Florida Peninsula, with the Moderate closer to the track. Fortunately, Helene is likely to be moving at its fastest forward speed when it makes landfall in the Big Bend region. This should somewhat reduce the impact potential of the heavy rain. Thus, for now, a High Risk along the Gulf Coast is not yet anticipated, but will certainly continue to be considered with new and changing guidance. Further north, the intensifying southeast flow ahead of Helene's center will advect increasingly deep tropical moisture into Georgia and the Carolinas. The previous day's PRE will give way to the primary rainfall shield with Helene, only resulting in increasingly heavy rainfall into north Georgia and the Carolinas, especially overnight Thursday night. The Moderate Risk was expanded north to account for the PRE, Helene's rainfall, and the much more dangerous nature of the impacts from nighttime flash flooding. Mudslides and landslides will become increasingly common in the southern Appalachians as rainfall amounts approaching 12 inches are expected. Despite recent dry conditions in this area, PWATs exceeding 3 inches in some areas will support storms easily capable of overwhelming the soils resulting in a very healthy percentage of the rainfall converting to runoff. The area from metro Atlanta, much of north Georgia, the western tip of South Carolina, and much of the mountains of western North Carolina are considered in a higher-end Moderate Risk, with increasing potential of eventually needing a High Risk upgrade for this area. This is for a few reasons: 1) The PRE shifting east (as mentioned in the D2 discussion) will prime many of the same southeast facing slopes much more efficiently than in previous forecasts. 2) Increasing rainfall totals with PWATs potentially getting as high as 3 inches in some areas means that much more efficient warm rain processes. 3) Southeast flow perpendicular to the southwest to northeast orientation of the southern Appalachians will maximize the upslope component of the flow, resulting in more rain. 4) Terrain issues, especially after multiple inches of rain Wednesday could mean multiple mudslides and landslides which could cut off whole communities from the road network. For Atlanta, any ERO risk upgrades will be dependent on significant rain from the PRE on Day 2/Wednesday in the city, as otherwise on Day 3 the rainfall in Atlanta will likely be similar to surrounding areas. The surrounding Slight Risks have generally been expanded in all directions: In the Florida Peninsula, convergence along the East Coast with the expansive wind field may result in heavy rain in urban areas from Orlando to Jacksonville. Given the eastward shift in the guidance and that much of Helene's moisture will shift northeast well after landfall, the Slight has been expanded to include all of South Carolina and central North Carolina. Finally, the Slight has also been expanded west to cover nearly all of Tennessee. Much of the westward shift in the guidance will be with some of Helene's moisture as it dissipates being absorbed into a cutoff low over the Mississippi Valley, resulting in a conveyor belt of moisture and heavy rain over much of Tennessee. That heavy rain will continue westward with a jet eventually moving into Missouri and Arkansas by Day 4/Friday. Flash and urban flooding across the major Tennessee cities from Chattanooga, Nashville, Knoxville and maybe as far west as Memphis will be possible. Wegman
  18. jaxjagman
    We could use the rain .LONG TERM... (Tuesday Night through next Monday) Issued at 1104 AM CDT Mon Sep 9 2024 The focus in the long term continues to the newly named tropical system, Francine. Currently it is a tropical storm off the east coast of Mexico. It will have a north/northeasterly track and is expected to make landfall along the Louisiana coast on Wednesday. Ensemble solutions are in fairly good agreement that the remnants continue northward roughly along the Mississippi River bringing showers and storms back to our area on Thursday. Without much upper level steering, the remnants are expected to very slowly continue the northward track Friday and into the weekend. As far as any severe potential, the best chance for Middle Tennessee will be Friday. Model soundings show low level backing along with around 500 J/kg of MUCAPE which could be supportive of rotating cells. With that said, there are many details still to be worked out. The remnants will very slowly wobble northeastward early next week. In the meantime, expect scattered shower and storm chances to continue. Rain could be heavy at time with PWAT values in the 1.7-1.9" inch range. As far as temperatures in the extended, Wednesday will be the warmest days with highs back in the 80s and 90s. Thursday through the weekend will be cooler given the increase cloud cover and showers and storms.
  19. jaxjagman
    Same here,gonna be a bad foilage season this year in our parts.Most of the rains today have been west of us,but right now we seem to be getting a OFB from those which is kicking off some showers.HIT 102 yesterday and of course my upstairs AC croaked out
  20. jaxjagman
    We got thunderstorms again here also,models kept showing today an inverted trough with PW'S over 1.8",hopefully those cells to the west dont die out,we could use all we can get
  21. jaxjagman
    But who knows,some are close to being a more "Modoki",that could just as well be winter.look at how warm it still is off of East Asia,SST'S
  22. jaxjagman
    Not really sure,way to soon to believe any model right now but right now it sure looks like a SER into late winter and possibly a active early severe season
  23. jaxjagman
    This winter is looking like more and more 2015-2016 if you resemble the ENSO.It wasnt exactly boring for us in MId TN back then,we had severe and a couple winter storms in Jan,Dec was exceptionally warm tho.The whole winter was AN for temps,but its NINA,so that shouldnt be a surprise.Be nice to at least get some snow,but nothing is giving in Tn,unless you are in the mountains
  24. jaxjagman
    Our yard has had patches since May,its getting worse but at least today we are getting some thunderstorms with some nice cells producing.So far to me this looks more of a east based NINA into winter,since Mid May the thermocline has warmed and not cooled around 55M,but that dont mean crap right now.Sure looks warm as we head towards the 4th,upper level ridge with a 597 parked above by the GFS,yippee
  25. jaxjagman
    I found this on Twitterhttps://x.com/Dentonwx/status/1797090493664272545/photo/1
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