jaxjagman

Ill use what the EPS shows,as heights rise into East China/Koreas this should be a warming in the east,BUT during this time the blocking along the Aluetians get shifted into Siberia,this would cause height falls into East Asia,i really think we will have a cold X-Mas,plus the MJO into which seems TO to be maybe in Africa right now maybe or at least western IO

Be a good case study upcoming in general cause around the 23rd of Nov the SOI dropped,and took out the Nina base state but rose shortly afterwards back towards NINA,so you'd have BN temps towards the middle of Dec but this would be transient because afterwards a few days the SOI would rise again.But the large fall the last few days would tell you it could get rather cold right before X-Mas unlike some of what the models seemingly show,but other teleconnections still play apart

Strong blocking into the Western Aluetians,Bearing Sea being shown would pump up a +PNA but where does the Trough Axis set up,definite cold look towards the Mid month

Not sure the MJO is really stalling out,its during the next few days the signal is getting nothing but constructive interference from Kelvin.Rossby.CFS has been showing this for several days now

Nothing but rain here,gonna be over by the looks pretty soon,back edge is closing in

Keep seeing it being to warm while the clown maps keep saying you'll get IP and SN,looks more cold rain here

Look at the SOI around the 23 of Nov then next week,this is when the models get chaotic with the MJO,but even that today, look how negative the SOI is today,the LaNina base state has been taking out and it is acting more Nino now,seems like the JMA and Euro are going into the COD,then back into the WH afterwards possibly and should probably climb back out the COD,actually the GEFS isnt far behind

lol...glad i'm not the Met at OHX

Per OHX,we are right now today+3.2 AN,Nov isnt a dry month either here and we are below avg 1.76" https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BRO&product=CF6&issuedby=BNA

Euro Mean today,i still think you stick with the JMA right now

Its just my opinion but when the SOI dropped pretty good around the 23rd then rose before Thanksgiving and the dropped again after,this pattern could should more than likely look like this into East Asis into the first week of Dec,it wouldnt effect our weather until right before the mid month of Dec 29 Nov 2025 1011.21 1008.95 -3.95 14.40 8.89 28 Nov 2025 1011.09 1008.70 -3.12 14.81 8.88 27 Nov 2025 1011.74 1008.55 1.97 15.52 9.00 26 Nov 2025 1012.11 1006.05 20.23 16.24 9.20 25 Nov 2025 1009.58 1005.50 7.63 16.34 9.25 24 Nov 2025 1007.56 1004.90 -1.40 17.10 9.38 23 Nov 2025 1009.73 1000.85 38.17 17.97 9.60 22 Nov 2025 1011.59 1003.75 31.56 17.51 9.41

IMHO out in the Pac there is alot of stuff going on with Rossby and Kelvin waves,this is why all the models seem to be struggling with the RMM,even the JMA which has been more tightly bunched is now showing more spread today.You'll more than likely in the next few days see some swings in modeling

Few days ago it was showing a WWB east of the IDL,where did it go..lol

No words needed where the MJO is today

We always here in Middle Tn get hosed by inverted troughs,still remember when we had a Winter Storm Warning that was right before the snow dome talk came in,was suppose to get 3-5" and the models missed the inverted trough and we just got rain instead,because it missed the warm nose

The MJO was fairly chaotic into Maritime/WP this cycle but it was into still the Maritome the first week of Nov,i need to go back and read it more thoroughly for myself,thanks for sharing this,John

Check it out this winter if the MJO gets back to P5,ill look for an archive but i doubt its the same

Probably need to see where the OLR is when it gets into MJO P5,right now we are in P6 with typhoon Koda

More members are jumping in each day around Christmas into early Jan

https://x.com/i/status/1993894442328375446 Check out his winter forecast

GTH Outlook Discussion Last Updated - 11/25/25 Valid - 12/03/25 - 12/16/25 Recent observations of tropical convection and the global tropical circulation indicate that the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) remains active, with the enhanced convective phase over the West Pacific. Little eastward propagation was evident on the RMM-based MJO index during the past two weeks, however, fluctuations in amplitude are indicative of interference from other modes of variability. The biggest disruptor to the ongoing MJO evolution is the low-frequency La Niña base state, which is preventing upper-level easterlies, low-level westerlies, and widespread convection from crossing the equatorial central Pacific. Enhanced convection is crossing the central Pacific away from the Equator, however, especially along the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) region. Time-longitude analyses of the low-level zonal wind field reveals two distinct features propagating eastward: a slowly evolving envelope of westerly anomalies that has progressed from the Indian Ocean in October to the far western Pacific by mid- to late November, and a faster moving signal, likely Kelvin wave activity, that is circumnavigating the globe. As this latter signal comes into phase with the slower evolving signal, westerly wind bursts have occurred, followed by a period of increasing disorganization. Dynamical model forecasts are in good agreement that a period of constructive interference between these two signals will occur in late November and early December, resulting in a disruption of the La Niña trade wind regime over the west-central Pacific, and a rapid amplification of the RMM-based MJO index in Phase-7. Beyond this period, the faster moving mode becomes more unpredictable and may not well capture an easterly phase of the Kelvin wave, but the slower-evolving low-level westerlies are favored to continue impacting the Pacific basin into mid-December. A potential second enhancement of the MJO signal is clearly depicted in both the GEFS and ECMWF model systems during late December over the East Pacific, likely tied to another period of constructive interference between the slowly propagating signal and the Kelvin wave activity. Based on this guidance, the MJO is favored to remain active, and may become the dominant contributor to the global tropical convective pattern during early December. Pacific MJO events teleconnect well with the midlatitude circulation during the Boreal winter season, and may contribute to a reinforcement of ridging across western North America and troughing over eastern North America. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ghaz/index.php

Believe the GFS and Euro are killing the MJO off to fast in the WP mainly because of a Kelvin Wave is causing destructive interference.MJO is more than likely still active and moving

SOI has been fairly chaotic as of late,ups and downs,the last couple weeks,big drop two days ago,ensembles were looking severe last weekend into the first part of Dec,not no more 25 Nov 2025 1009.58 1005.50 7.63 16.34 9.25 24 Nov 2025 1007.56 1004.90 -1.40 17.10 9.38 23 Nov 2025 1009.73 1000.85 38.17 17.97 9.60 22 Nov 2025 1011.59 1003.75 31.56 17.51 9.41 21 Nov 2025 1011.94 1004.90 26.47 17.04 9.28 20 Nov 2025 1013.02 1005.20 31.43 16.68 9.16 19 Nov 2025 1013.90 1005.00 38.30 16.14 8.87 18 Nov 2025 1013.91 1006.65 27.87 15.23 8.46 17 Nov 2025 1013.24 1007.30 19.47 14.55 8.06 16 Nov 2025 1013.02 1008.85 8.20 14.05 7.64 15 Nov 2025 1011.89 1008.00 6.42 13.81 7.50 14 Nov 2025 1011.80 1008.10 5.21 13.71 7.48 13 Nov 2025 1011.52 1009.15 -3.25 13.44 7.37 12 Nov 2025 1012.06 1010.30 -7.13 13.43 7.36 11 Nov 2025 1012.19 1009.60 -1.85 13.91 7.44 10 Nov 2025 1012.05 1008.55 3.94 14.24 7.51 9 Nov 2025 1013.18 1009.05 7.95 14.46 7.52 8 Nov 2025 1015.00 1009.15 18.89 14.82 7.31 7 Nov 2025 1015.88 1008.40 29.26 14.92 6.94 6 Nov 2025 1015.28 1008.05 27.67 14.37 6.61

Still look like its getting into Africa before Christmas