jaxjagman

National Weather Service Nashville TN 841 PM CST Thu Jan 9 2025 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 830 PM CST Thu Jan 9 2025 - High chance of significant snow accumulation and major travel impacts Friday into early Saturday. - Cold temperatures through the weekend with lows in the teens and 20s. - Temperatures below freezing during nighttime hours next week will re-freeze any melted snow, resulting in black ice and continued hazardous travel especially on secondary roads. && .UPDATE... Issued at 830 PM CST Thu Jan 9 2025 Have updated the short-term grids with the most recent model data and there`s no appreciable change in the forecast. We are still expecting widespread amounts of 4-7". Some locations will likely exceed that range. Other locations, mainly our southern areas near the TN/AL border, can expect less than 4", but also with light ice accumulations. Either way, the impacts are going to be the same area-wide. Radar imagery shows the leading edge of the snow just now reaching the Memphis Metro Area. The environment across Middle Tennessee is still relatively dry. Dew points are mostly in the teens, and the evening sounding from OHX gives a Precipitable Water of just 0.16", which is actually below the 10th percentile for this date. So we`re going to need quite a bit of moisture advection in order for precipitation to start reaching the ground. That should happen rather quickly now that the upper ridge has passed east of Middle Tennessee and the upper flow is in the process of turning southwestward. The forecast is still on track.

Nashville bumped the totals up since this morning here,they must feel pretty confident,more than i am anyways right now Tonight Snow showers likely, mainly after 5am. Increasing clouds, with a low around 25. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Friday Snow showers. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 32. Calm wind becoming east southeast around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible. Friday Night Snow showers likely, mainly before 9pm. Cloudy, with a low around 27. Calm wind becoming west northwest around 5 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

We was in a WSW several years ago,models didnt even so much of any WN and we ended up with all rain here

GFS is locked in

Looks like a Christmas light show right now

Link,forgot it https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php

Slight risk of much below normal temperatures for portions of the Ohio, Tennessee, Middle and Lower Mississippi Valleys, Southeast, and Mid-Atlantic, Fri-Sat, Jan 17-18. Slight risk of much below normal temperatures for parts of the Northwest, Rockies, Central and Northern Plains, and the Upper and Middle Mississippi Valley, Sun-Wed, Jan 19-22. Slight risk of much below normal temperatures for parts of the Southern Plains, Lower Mississippi Valley, Tennessee and Ohio Valleys, Southeast and Great Lakes, Mon-Thu, Jan 20-23. Slight risk of heavy precipitation for portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley, Southern Plains, and Tennessee Valley and Southeast, Fri-Tue, Jan 17-21. Slight risk of heavy snow for portions of the Central and Southern Rockies and Plains, Middle and Upper Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys, Great Lakes, Central and Southern Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, Fri-Tue, Jan 17-21. Slight risk of high winds for portions of the Central and Southern Plains, Middle Mississippi Valley, and Great Lakes, Sat-Mon, Jan 18-21. Slight risk for periods of high winds for much of the Four Corners and surrounding areas, Fri-Mon, Jan 17-20. Detailed Summary

GFS shows a heavy band of snow tomorrow setting up from SW/TN.Mid Tn into east TN,VA after,if it right anyways

Long range i still believe the Euro is wrong.Seems possible all its doing is seeing destructive interference from Rossby,Kelvin Waves

Not much change just comes in a little faster than earlier

National Weather Service Nashville TN 818 PM CST Wed Jan 8 2025 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 806 PM CST Wed Jan 8 2025 - High chance of snow accumulation and travel impacts Friday into early Saturday. - Cold temperatures this week with lows in the teens tonight. - Temperatures below freezing during nighttime hours next week will re-freeze any melted snow, resulting in black ice and continued hazardous travel especially on secondary roads. && .UPDATE... Issued at 806 PM CST Wed Jan 8 2025 Skies are finally clearing out of Middle TN as a trough has exited to the east. It`s been cold, but this trough brought a reinforcing shot of colder air. This combined with clearing skies will make for a very cold night across the area. Widespread lows in the teens are expected with a medium chance (30-50%) that temperatures fall into the single digits along the upper Plateau. One more quiet day is on tap Thursday as temperatures only warm into the mid-30s. Our winter storm will be approaching by tomorrow night, with snow moving into the area from southwest after midnight. As far as forecast concerns and uncertainty, not much has changed from the previous discussion below. The bottom line is that you should be prepared for significant travel impacts by mid-Friday morning.

Actually its KINDA like the NAM...fwiw,LP cutting through B'HAM

Emd of the run and still snowing inW/TN

NAM 3K dont show this wild scenario

NAM transferred the energy from the GOM to Tn in a couple hours?

Man,stronger LLJ

Maybe not,more ice this run

NAM is slightly strong this run,gonna be a good run for people in the west

NAM looks better so far,see what happens

Mesoscale model that isnt even that good with severe that far out

It brings the LP through Tn,wouldnt trust the HRRR that far out,it usually whiffs

Not sure why it made it small,heres the linkhttps://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpfhsd

LONG TERM... (Thursday Night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1104 AM CST Wed Jan 8 2025 Not much has changed in the forecast with the upcoming snow event. Models have hinted at a slightly further north track, which may allow for warmer air to move further north as well. This could allow for some rain to mix in with the snow especially near the AL border area. Any rain at all would rob moisture for the snow, and lessen snow amounts in that area. But, a further south track would limit moisture in northern zones, and lower snow amounts in that area. So, this is a difficult forecast in regards to snow amounts. At least the chances for sleet and freezing rain are very low with current model data. GFS and GEFS remain the most aggressive with snow and textbook isentropic lift over most of the day Friday, resulting in the heaviest snowfall. NAM has ramped up a little but remains below the GFS, and the ECMWF and ensembles remain on the lower end. Still, 10th percentile snow amounts are in the 1-2 inch range, and 90th percentile is in the 5 to 7 inch range, so we still have a decent spread between the models. Still have 3 to 6 inches across the mid state, with some locally higher amounts possible especially if any mesoscale bands develop with higher snowfall rates. Some of the CAMs are getting into the onset of the snow and suggest snow could start a little earlier than anticipated by a few hours, but either way, Friday will definitely have travel impacts regardless and travel should be avoided. Temps will likely be cooler if we get the snowfall currently in the forecast, so temps will struggle to get above freezing on Saturday. This will keep roads in rough shape especially on less traveled and secondary roads. Lows Saturday night will be in the teens, but there may be some relief Sunday with weak ridging and getting temps to the upper 30s. But another weak Midwest trough will swing through Sunday night into Monday, and could bring some flurries/light snow to the area. At the very least it will bring cloud cover, so any help from the sun on the roads doesn`t look likely. Lows in the teens/20s are expected each night next week, which any melting will result in re-freezing, keeping travel difficult with black ice on any cleared roads.

Then i just looked at the 2m's and its not very cold,so maybe it isnt right

Could be right,they will probably be colder because of the elevation,thus better ratios