jaxjagman

Not even sure what might happen here.Still look like early rains and clouds might hold back any severe.Like SPC mentions.I think for you guys its more timing,GFS/NAM seem to be showing loss of diurnal heating the severe threat falls off markadly,dont mean you still cant get severe storms

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of Texas and Oklahoma beginning late in the day and into the evening on Wednesday. A severe threat will also develop overnight over the lower Mississippi Valley/Mid-South region, with a tornado risk. ...Eastern OK/North-Central TX to the Mid-South... Late-evening satellite imagery depicts a well-defined upper low digging southeast into northern AZ. This feature is forecast to shift into the southern Rockies by mid day as a 110kt 500mb jet translates across the desert southwest toward the southern High Plains. With time this feature will advance into eastern KS allowing the trough to become more positive tilted as it moves into the central Plains. This evolution will maintain broad southwesterly flow across lower latitudes, including the Mid-South region. Of particular concern will be the development of a pronounced LLJ across the lower MS/TN Valley, especially during the latter half of the period when a marked increase is expected (in excess of 60kt). More appreciable mid-level height falls will remain north of the higher-buoyancy air mass, thus low-level warm advection will likely prove instrumental in the majority of supercell development through the period. At 05z, a narrow band of strongly-forced convection is observed along the front over AZ. Otherwise, most of the southern states are convective free with strong capping. Low-level trajectories favor Gulf air mass advancing inland across the lower MS Valley, and mid 60s surface dew points are well established at this time over much of the upper TX Coast and LA. Latest guidance suggests this air mass will easily advance north into AR/western TN Valley later today; however, convective development will likely remain suppressed until the latter half of the period when the LLJ intensifies in response to the approaching short wave. Upstream, strong boundary-layer heating across the southern High Plains will result in very steep surface-3km lapse rates from the southern TX Panhandle into western OK/northwest TX. It appears this steep lapse rate plume will overspread the northwestern portions of return moisture across south-central OK/north-central TX, just ahead of the front/dry line. As temperatures warm into the lower 70s capping should weaken and scattered convection is expected to develop. Forecast soundings favor supercell development and this activity should spread east during the evening hours with an attendant threat for all hazards. Downstream, LLJ will increase across LA into western TN from late afternoon into the evening. Steep mid-level lapse rates will overspread this region as 3km capping gradually weakens. As the cap weakens, isolated discrete supercells are expected to evolve within a moistening, warm advection regime. ESRH values in excess of 300 m2/s2, along with steep lapse rates, and modest instability favor severe supercells capable of producing tornadoes, possibly strong. A corridor of supercells may ultimately evolve along an axis from southeast AR into western TN, during the latter half of the period, as the cold front will not advance east of the MS River prior to sunrise. Warm advection should be the primary forcing mechanism for this activity, thus episodic bouts of severe are possible. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 02/15/2023

Incredible what the mountains can do.We are almost 60 and yall are getting snowI was driving my BMW with my top down today

But who knows down the road.The Euro seems like it wants to to build back the Mid level ridge again down into Cuba/Bahamas,and a Upper Level Ridge around the Mid Atlantic.Seems like the same pattern we are seeing mid week once again

Probably better to wait until around next weekend,But the GFS and Euro seems to be hinting at some potential strong storms in its long range

Congrats to who ever got to see some snow.Least someone got to see it in this crappie winter

Most of the models have been showing it raining,cloudy here possibly in the morning until the CF passes through,Thursday.Shouldn't be no problem with winds.It could be a big deal here or not a big deal,its kinda to early to trust any model right now,its a pretty active pattern upcoming JMO

This SEEMS to be headed towards 2018 when there were no EF4-5'S that year.Japan had the BAIU FRONT establish in which caused catastrophic flooding in that region.Flooding in India.Couple strong phoons .There was a couple strong hurricanes,Florence for one.We also had a fall tornado outbreak in Nov.,just a few events noted. Based on the ONI it does look certainly possible when we get into spring it could become more neutral.We just as well had a similar SSWE into Feb(pic below) Who knows,but by my observation as of right it seems to be headed towards a more 2018,this does not mean anything historical will happen again that was noted above.

Not looking good for failure,not right now anyways

Yeah it seems to be headed towards a major SSWE,but it still looks to be a outlier right now,no clue,sometimes the GFS wins..lol

Almost look like the GFS wants to obliterate the PV dont it?

Euro site seems to be down,seems like a outlier right now

MJO just getting into the WH this time of year also dont seem very kind,its usually just dry until it gets into the WH and Africa,thats where you guys in the east could cash in if the signal stays coherent

But i wouldnt be surprised if some boundary gets hung out somewhere along us in future model runs,you'll see some severe risk like Houston said in Dixie again,not sure for us but as the days get longer

MJO has been consistent still since fall,seems more than likely later on we will see systems again cutting up through the Ozarks or Tenn every 3-4 days depending on where any ridge sets up but most of these will be +ve tilt and move out fast.Its what weve seen since fall it seems

there was a trough going through East Asia a couple days ago,i wouldn't be surprised if the EPS is to slow

Outbreak in 2011 we didnt have to worry about the SPV

GEFS wants to kill severe spring possibly

Pattern since fall has been consistent with the MJO and right now i wouldnt be suprised if this looks better in the next few days,but we are going to warm up some upcoming

Euro has the MJO getting into the WH,Phase 7 out of the COD around the Mid month,it looks much better than what it has been showing.Crazy as it sounds the the Euro is playing catch up to the GEFS

Just zr here,,mostly drizzle right now should pick up in about a half hour

I'm not really sure,the MJO signal looks to really weaken as we get around MId Feb,both the Euro and CFS are showing this,GEFS right now keeps a stronger signal into the WP out of the COD. Seems like at least we;ve seen this same pattern out west since Nov,wash,rinse and repeat.The MJO signal gets strong then it goes into suppression after, then strong then suppressed again and so on.So seemingly if the patten recycles like it has we'll start seeing a stronger signal into Africa and the IO into March,but thats JMO and certainly might be wrong

Dont think we even got below freezing last night and we still are not right now

National Weather Service Memphis TN 901 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2023 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 900 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2023 02z surface analysis places an arctic cold front from New England back through portions of the Cumberland Plateau, Northern Alabama, and into Southern Mississippi. The freezing line across the Mid-South extends from near Paris, TN back to Memphis, and generally along the I-40 corridor into Little Rock, AR. Regional WSR-88D radar trends show the leading edge of the wintry precipitation already just east of the Mississippi River. KNQA WSR-88D dual polarization products indicate precipitation is falling mainly as freezing rain with the inclusion of some embedded sleet over Northeast Arkansas. This verifies with METAR observation and winter weather reports we`ve received thus far. Unfortunately, the earliest 00Z models (NAM/HRRR) are indicating slightly cooler temperatures which may end up impacting the potential melting of any ice during the day on Tuesday. A combination of a 30 kt 850 low level jet over the Arklatex and low to mid level warm air advection and a mid-level shortwave trough will assist in producing precipitation across the Mid-South throughout the night with the first wave tapering off Tuesday morning. 00Z KLZK upper air sounding is indicating a well pronounced warm nose approaching 9C resulting in the complete melting of precipitation as it reaches the below freezing temperatures near the surface thus resulting in freezing rain. Some sleet will still be possible further north towards the Missouri/Kentucky border where temperatures are slightly cooler aloft. Ice accumulation amounts across the warning area may end up averaging between one quarter to one half inch across the warning area with this first round if latest model guidance verifies across the area. An evening update will be available shortly to adjust precipitation chances upward and lower temperatures into Tuesday.

Pattern looks more severe than cold as we get into deep Feb,just my two cents,if this was Cane season we'd probably be looking at tropical genesis some where