jaxjagman

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 75 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 950 AM CDT Tue Apr 2 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern Kentucky Western and middle Tennessee * Effective this Tuesday morning and afternoon from 950 AM until 300 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph likely Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter likely SUMMARY...A loose cluster of storms in western Tennessee is expected to evolve into a couple of supercells while spreading east-northeastward toward southern Kentucky and middle Tennessee through midday and early afternoon. The environment ahead of the storms will be favorable for tornadoes, a couple of which could be strong (roughly EF2), as well as damaging gusts up to 75 mph and large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles north of Jackson TN to 45 miles north of Crossville TN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

Neither has much rotation right now

The thunderstorm cell looks more impressive than the tornado cell in SW TN

HRR last couple runs keeps honing in on the TN/KY line for some possible strong tornadoes mid afternoon

Sound like winds and if cells can remain broken tornadoes possibly

Just start another severe thread,this one is 3 years old,bout time to start a new one

Still top analog is Mid April 1998 by the NAM 12z today,Disco from Nahshville LONG TERM... (Monday Night through next Sunday) Issued at 1106 AM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024 The main concern in the extended forecast continues to be on Tuesday with the expectation of some severe storms. A wave of energy within a larger positively-tilted, broad trough will eject out of the SW CONUS on Monday with a surface low developing in response. The surface low will move from the Ozarks into the Midwest and deepen as Tuesday progresses. Storms could be ongoing early Tuesday morning to our north and west. A couple of the CAMS including the HRRR have some activity leaking into our northwest around dawn. There could be enough instability in place where a severe storm cannot be ruled out. The main show continues to appear to be in the afternoon ahead of the cold front. Models continue to show surface CAPE values between 500 to close to 900 J/kg during the afternoon. Models are suggesting storms will develop ahead of the front over the western third of the CWA and move eastward as the afternoon and evening progresses. 0-500mb bulk shear will be ample to support organized updrafts with values greater than 60 kts. 0-1 km SRH values could be between 200-250 m2/s2 over the eastern half of the area Tuesday afternoon. Storm modes may be a mix bag of clusters, supercells, or line segments. Given all of that damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes all look possible. The severe storm window should end between 00z and 03z Wednesday.

Good luck to the Vols today.

April 16,1998 top analog by the NAM,don't mean we'll see a repeat,could even change from the next few runs ,just saying.

Still think this is very similar to what happened in 1997-98 NINO/NINA.The surface is warming right now thanks to a WWB,during this time the subsurface along the IDL and even west got to around -3C into April,the CCKW into May along with the MJO made a quick dismise of NINO

More or less a couple systems the warm sector has had a decent capping inversion for us. Tuesday like you mentioned is timing.If the Euro is right we'd have some broken cells into Tn by the cams,more severe.

Gray Ratsnakes are pretty common in Tn

Mammoth Cave is pretty cool,have fun!! Welcome to the board.Like PW just said beyond a certain time frame the models can change. Right now into Late Monday and Tuesday looks like a cold front by the Euro and GFS models,might be your biggest issue.But i wouldnt trust much myself beyond that point right now

I dont know.Some of the short range models are coming in quicker tomorrow,wouldn't surprise me if a slight risk was introduced further east next update close to Nashville

It just would do this in mid March

I'm still surprised more people didnt die in the Nashviile (downtown) from the F3 .The Kissimmee,Fl tornado (F3)was the worse in late Feb but the Birmingham F5 lifted 2 miles from downtown,that would have been catastrophic if it hit downtown.The chart is from fatalities in 1998

Towards as we get into April we could get active again.We had a similar pattern back into 1998 with a minor SSW in March along with a ElNino quite similar to this one to an extent based on the ONI. 1997 -0.5 -0.4 -0.1 0.3 0.8 1.2 1.6 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.4 1998 2.2 1.9 1.4 1.0 0.5 -0.1 -0.8 -1.1 -1.3 -1.4 -1.5 -1.6 But anyways the MJO by the CFS is showing the MJO getting into Africa/western IO into the first/2nd week of AprilUntil then we should start to see the AAM rise then revert back into a -AAM into April, But during this time frame we saw some violent tornadoes into Alabama https://www.weather.gov/bmx/event_04081998 We also saw the F5 hit Larwenceburg,Tn around a week later No forecast,nothing to panic about but there is some similarities from 1998 that i'm seeing right now to be a active period possibly well into spring

We know where the MJO is headed

Nino is done now.EKW just put a dent and in the east ,upwelling the colder waters FROM the thermocline to the surface.Euro and CFS the next few days both show a ERW,coming into play also,kinda like a 1-2 KO punch,then the easteries should come into play.If the thermocline was much colder along the IDL,into the WP,,this would be quite similar to what happened in the1997-1998 NINO/NINA

Pattern of how the NINO got broke down from a strong Nino in 1997 into a strong NINA later into 1998,in most ways its very similar. Abstract [1] The intensity of the 1997 El Niño and the 8°C sudden drop in sea surface temperature (SST) around 0°–130°W during the turn into La Niña in 1998 were a surprise to the scientific community. This succession of warm and cold events was observed from start to finish with a comprehensive set of remotely sensed and in situ observations. In this study we employ space-based observations to demonstrate, for the first time, their maturity in capturing the preconditioning, onset, evolution, and decay of the 1997 El Niño and its transition into the 1998 La Niña. An accumulation of warm water in the west and equatorial wave reflection on the western ocean boundary appeared favorable for the development of El Niño. However, the action of a series of westerly wind bursts from December 1996 to June 1997, notably in March 1997, was instrumental in setting up this huge El Niño. The westerly wind bursts excited equatorial downwelling Kelvin waves and advected the eastern edge of the warm pool eastward, which triggered a distinct warming over the central and eastern parts of the equatorial basin. Once these warmed regions joined, the coupling between the SST and surface winds was fully effective, and El Niño reached its mature phase. By that time much of the warm waters of the western equatorial Pacific was transferred toward the east by surface eastward currents. The demise of El Niño and its turn into La Niña in spring 1998 were due to the arrival in the east of various interrelated phenomena. Upwelling was brought from the west by favorable off-equatorial wind stress curl and equatorial Kelvin waves generated by easterly winds and wave reflection on the western ocean boundary. Additional upwelling was brought from the east by equatorial Rossby waves generated by westerly winds. These various upwelling signals were added to the general uplifting of the thermocline because of the slow discharge of the upper layer of the equatorial basin by diverging surface currents. A series of equatorial Kelvin and Rossby waves, characterized by upwelling and opposite surface currents, led to the breakup of the warm waters, the surfacing of the thermocline, and the drastic drop in SST in May 1998 around 0°–130°W. With the arrival of cold water in the east the easterly winds expanded from the west, and La Niña turned into a growing mode. This view of the 1997–1998 El Niño–La Niña, afforded from space, enables the testing of various El Niño theories. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2001jc000850

Yeah,pretty strong cap did us in

Looks good