jaxjagman
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Everything posted by jaxjagman
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https://site.extension.uga.edu/climate/2016/01/cold-and-snow-in-miami-in-1977-nearly-wipes-out-citrus/ I was living in Jacksonville but was younger,i thought i recalled it did snow in Miami
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Headed in the right direction anyways.GEFS looks even better than yesterday
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https://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/15565132 Crazy If we dont get some snow with this patten into Jan i give up on winter other than its gonna get cold.We seem to headed into Jan with the East Asia jet retraction for a few days with a +PNA and -AO/NAO as we get into Jan.As we get into Jan the AO drops somewhere possibly 2-3 sigma,just what it shows today,that should get us fairly cold if it dont change Long range the models show the East Asia jet extension back again.CFS want to strenghten the MJO signal tho into the IO,but this could be its thinking of a ERW that slows the progression of the MJO signal,kinda similar i think what we seen recently when the MJO was into phase 6,we'll see
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Mid and long ranges believe you'd rather see height falls into East China into the Koreas and not the opposite.Instead the EPS shows this more into the Sea of Japan into the Western Pac,without a definitive sign of a -NAO your trough axis will,could be seemingly to far east of us to get much of anything but hoping for a clipper or possibly even cold chasing rain with a chance even for severe weather
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THIS !! ,i dont get myself in BAMS recent post why you are comparing the EPO and how good the Canadian model did to the Euro AIFS and calling AIFS a EPIC failure,i mean the AIFS is an experimental project,kinda silly to me to even compare the two
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Least signs today at that breaking down
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That's what ive been thinking as well.The SPV is fairly solid right now and not really much signs of changing,.long range the Euro is about on the pole,so who knows.2014 when it got really cold the PV was weak,much weaker and displaced,maybe that can happen again.Least its been a wet and not a well AN pattern as of now,we need the rain
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I still think its a waiting game.We always get killed in winter in our parts when the jet enhances past 150W-180W(SER),but still so far even into the long range even into East Asia has been a rather a active period,could be the warm SSTS into the Sea of Japan,Yellow Sea,dunno.But right now seems more like a progressive pattern.yesterday the Euro looked like +NAO,today its now hinting a Rex block into Greenland in the long range
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Think id use some caution in the long range around Christmas,alot of moving parts from East Asia into the NW,but i get the MJO part
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That's my thinking also but it might not be t-shirt weather...lol..but if you want snow better go up north,not promising for us
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Seemingly what the Euro is showing today is the PV is headed towards the Baffin Sea but it still looks like a brick but either way,no reason to nicpick right now,see what it shows in a couple days or so,ill move this into winter thread,no need to keep it into Dec
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That would be everyones dream into the meat of winter
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He's been making some good vids as of late compared to some of his in the past. Right now the SPV the last few days has been just displaced and tilted.But there is as least some some signs by the Euro it could change in upcoming days.But right now its fairly like a rock.Going into 2014 the SPV was weak and let cold air pour into NA 2014 i think it was Daniel and i was talking about that year several days ago with the record proportion +TNH and +EA in 2014,excuse me if i got that poster wrong,i'm to lazy to go back and look. But that winter in Jan., 2014 it got extremely cold into even parts of Ky dropping down into the -30s. But 2013-2014 winter does have some similarity going for it compared to this winter.Even if you look at the ONI both these winters into S-O-N were both -0.2,if we we get a repeat of 2014,who knows ATM,we know how things can change in our parts
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Actually, its not a horrible look as we get in Jan,if it were to hold
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Yeah its snowing now
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Some flurries here now,unless that is bugsI went outside just now and saw nothing https://g1.ipcamlive.com/player/player.php?alias=brentwood201173a
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Yeah,it still bothersome to get the PNA broke down or the cold is going to our west But there is more spread today with the Euro ensembles,this could be also from a KW moving around the IDL right now could be causing destructive interference with the MJO signal,dunno
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I was hoping for a cold Christmas but the good PNA is getting broke down in which the long range models are showing and the GWO is showing signs going back to negative,if this was severe season i'd be getting excited,also the stout SPV via the Euro is getting displaced towards Greenland ,you dont want to see this,i was wishing for a cold Christmas but each day that passes it get more and more depressing,
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But the Euro is showing this breaking down into the 2nd week of Dec,right now anyways
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Yeah i believe that was the year we had a Winter Weather Warning here in the 2013-14 for that storm but i believe we got warm nosed in our parts it ended up being just liquid rain,thats when the snow dome started.
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When discussing "TNH index" with "La Niña,"it refers to the potential impact of a La Niña event on the Tropical Northern Hemisphere (TNH) weather pattern, which is a climate index that describes large-scale atmospheric pressure variations across the North Pacific and North Atlantic, often leading to specific weather patterns across North America, especially during winter months; During a La Niña phase, the TNH pattern can be amplified, potentially causing colder and wetter conditions in certain regions depending on the specific atmospheric conditions. Key points to understand: TNH Index: This index measures the strength of the TNH pattern, which is characterized by high pressure over the Gulf of Alaska and low pressure over the eastern North Atlantic. The Girl: A climate phenomenon where the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean experiences cooler than average sea surface temperatures, impacting global weather patterns. Connection: During a La Niña event, the jet stream can become wavy, sometimes enhancing the TNH pattern, which can lead to colder temperatures and increased precipitation in certain parts of North America. How to interpret: Positive TNH with La Niña: A strong positive TNH index during a La Niña phase could indicate a higher chance of colder and wetter winter conditions in parts of the United States. Negative TNH with La Niña: A weaker or negative TNH index during a La Niña might lead to less pronounced weather impacts related to the TNH pattern.
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Here it is Daniel https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013–14_North_American_winter
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I'm not sure,might be a Jeff question.If i'm not mistaken the 2013-2014 winter that was the year the TNH was positive,the 2nd highest on record that was when Atlanta got crippled by a winter storm and that was the winter the snow dome came out for Nashville.Met might know if that was the year but i'm pretty sure it was for the Atlanta storm
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Seemingly right now its typical Nina,cold into the early season then crap as we get into towards the holidays.Even the CFS,JMA shows something similar.Maybe it will change,but it definite needs to get out of there
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