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jaxjagman

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Everything posted by jaxjagman

  1. Lots of moving parts leading up to the end of next week,throwing one piece off the others will follow
  2. GFS is trying to put this year into the record books in Nashville
  3. It took it long enough to make some noise potentially.Should take more hits with the MJO going into the IO,Maritime
  4. Its pretty wild how we continue to see these troughs in East Asia.At first i thought it was because the warm SST'S but then i remembered some of these SST'S this year are breaking records from last year,but we didnt see anything like this pattern last winter,possibly the ENSO,seems possible,we did have a strong NINO
  5. Still think the JMA is right with the MJO,but i also think the Euro is also right ,just not as amped.If the CFS is anywhere right it does show a strong MJO into Africa and into the IO,but in a NINA base state the signal will get destructive interefrnce into the IO from waves that should totally disrupt the MJO signal when its actually moving forward Maybe i might be wrong but if teleconnections work out i really think our coldest temps of the season could be towards the end of the month..jmho
  6. Thats still insane.I lived in Jacksonville for around 25 years.Like that article i posted from the from the Climate center in Florida ill post think link it does get cold i know,but ice i never seen ice until i moved here.With a Nor-easter in some winters when those winds cross the STJohns River,oh that shit is brutal..lol https://climatecenter.fsu.edu/topics/winters
  7. Didnt even know Florida could get so cold ,even though it was back into the 1800's Although many people head south to escape the cold in the winter, it isn't always warmer in Florida. When an intense low pressure system is followed by a strong high pressure system, particularly powerful invasions of cold air may occur in Florida. These cold air outbreaks can produce below-freezing temperatures and are usually accompanied by strong winds that can produce bitterly cold wind chills. Over the past 150 years, numerous severe cold outbreaks have affected Florida. In February 1899, a cold wave that became known as the Great Arctic Outbreak pushed frigid Canadian arctic air into the state. During this event, the lowest temperature ever recorded in Florida (-2°F) occurred on February 13, 1899. Since this outbreak, a number of "impact freezes" have influenced the retreat of the famous Florida orange groves from areas around Jacksonville and St. Augustine to their current locations in south Florida.
  8. Right,i was thinking the same thing myself
  9. Guess its possible but would be really,really rare
  10. I cant ever recall a ice storm in North Fl..lol
  11. Yeah the MJO into 3 alot of people always say thats gloom and doom but actually its not
  12. We get excited with the GWO into those phases for severe if its right..lol
  13. The pattern as of late has been acting like a decent Nino other than a Nina,so its not very coupled.The SOI the last couple days is hovering around -20,the SOI seemingly should start to reverse shortly
  14. Mean has really jumped on board today seemingly
  15. Yeah thats brutal seeing a 1058hp nosing into Oklahoma the Euro is showing,could be the coldest temps we've seen all season
  16. https://www.weather.gov/hun/lanina_winter_study_tennessee3_temperatures
  17. The link to above id you care..lol https://www.weather.gov/hun/elnino_winter_study_tennessee3_temperatures
  18. I assume this is going by the ONI,this is Middle Tn IN Nina years
  19. Maybe,im not sure what will happen,everything could be suppressed like Jeff mentioned,we had a ULL off the east coast last storm,models are showing a ULR off the east coast right now where ever it is placed,this could suppress the jet and hoping for clippers,to far off to tell right now plus im looking at the Euro long range
  20. I dont think we have the blocking for a storm next weekend like WPC was talking about earlier,the blocking dont seem to be there and both the GFS and Euro shows a active southern jet going into the OV,this should scream cutter and maybe cold chasing rain and maybe if cold can catch up possibly some higher elevation wrap around,maybe it will change,dunno right now
  21. Need the Euro to verify,if its even close with the blocking its showing it will turn quite cold with the map Jeff just showed
  22. Im not saying never use it,its still guidance.Sometimes it misses waves but corrects itself later,same with other models.It doesnt even have support from its members from some of its members,some are showing a stronger signal into the IO right now
  23. i was about to say that,give me weenie 18
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