jaxjagman

NINOS,not NINAS.I'm not saying it wont snow but chances are better for you guys than us,it should flip next year

Like always in a NINA it seems,we see some flakes.If it snows it will be in March where it screws up severe

This basically shows the AR getting shifted from the NW into Cali,is this NINA or NINO...LOL

But 1988-89 was a mild winter just as well

Since the models showed 1988,went back to look at the MJO IN 1988,it did some weird shit also,but this was a strong NINA unlike this year,no worries Jeff,i dont share anything here on this board unless you say i can

Went back and looked at the reanalysis maps of the Dec Christmas Eve tornado in 1988 in TN to see if that was possible with what the models seemed to hinting at a couple days ago,i used the day before,guess four words should be noted"GOOD LUCK WITH THAT" This pattern we are in is just like we seen last year when we was off to a fast start but collapsed when the blocking into the Western Aleutians/Being Sea set in after the tornado outbreak in March this year All this does is pull the JS further northward makes the severe shift up into the OV,in which is what we seen CIPS yesterday morning had some good analogs for tornadoes around Christmas from the LMV into the Mid South,but the models yesterday afternoon crapped that out building the subtropical ridge further northward Still over 10 days out,this could always change again.We more than often get severe before cold in the cold season.I.E the severe outbreak last winter where Vortex is at in MS. in late Dec

Euro the last couple runs has been showing signs of the Subtropical ridge moving out west,maybe its seeing something the other models arent seeing right now,dunno.But right now it dont seem to have much if any support

Kinda looks like Christmas eve,1988

GTH Outlook Discussion Last Updated - 12/09/25 Valid - 12/17/25 - 12/30/25 Following a very high amplitude Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) propagation across the Pacific at the end of November, the intraseasonal signal has rapidly weakened as it crossed the Americas and Atlantic in early December and now resides within the unit circle. The strong MJO event was the result of constructive interference between the MJO itself and Kelvin Wave (KW) activity which have become more decoupled in recent days. Long range dynamical model ensembles depict the RMM-based MJO signal generally remaining within the unit circle, with some re-emergence into the Western Hemisphere around the end of week-2. While the GEFS and ECMWF show this evolution to some degree, the CFS is the most robust in its depiction of a more coherent loop of the RMM-based signal which comes out of the unit circle in phases 7 and 8 later in December. Velocity potential filtering indicates a very fast moving enhanced convective signal circumnavigating the globe during the next 2 weeks, despite the lack of an RMM-based signal appearing over the Eastern Hemisphere. However, an experimental projection of objectively filtered KW activity in phase space reveals a continuously circumnavigating signal, which at times constructively and destructively interferes with lower frequency modes. This makes for a rather complex and low confidence Global Tropics Hazards Outlook and is based mainly on La Nina composites and some consideration of dynamical models.

We'll know more in the next couple days where the MJO is going,now is when its getting destructive interference from Rossby/Kelvin Waves

Thats what it seems like to me anyways

It might be with the Walker Circulation starts to strenghten,this is why you see the ensembles pull the JS much further north and basically traps the cold air up North in the long range in a NINA

I mean basically this is what we are seeing if you look towards Eastern Aussie land,not saying we will torch but its not gonna get that cold,cold air is gonna be trapped in Canada,Upper Plains

It dont look very cold cold to me in the long range,this is in part due to the Walker Circulation ,when you see these strong EWB'S this strenghtens the Walker circulation and pushes the Jet Steam the jet more Northward in winter time during LaNina,in summer time we can see droughts in our parts,which is what we seen this summer,this is what you seem to be seeing right now with the ensembles long range

Record low on Deb 14 in Nashville was 6 degrees back into 1917,so that would break our record if it were to be correct

Sure looks like the MJO is getting into the IO/Maritime No doubt about that,,big Artic High moving down from the Upper Plains

Ensembles are going Zonal in the long range,not a warm look but its not cold either,very little QPFS,probably the only hope would be a bowling ball if it could manifest any cold with it I'm starting to wonder if the CFS is more right with the RMM'S,its been showing it going into WP the last several days,now its showing another Kelvin,Rossby into the WP towards the end of the year and crapping out there,we'll see if it keeps showing this.

Congrats bro !!

But you should see a definite warm up past the Mid of Dec,probably not brutal but AN

Ill use what the EPS shows,as heights rise into East China/Koreas this should be a warming in the east,BUT during this time the blocking along the Aluetians get shifted into Siberia,this would cause height falls into East Asia,i really think we will have a cold X-Mas,plus the MJO into which seems TO to be maybe in Africa right now maybe or at least western IO

Be a good case study upcoming in general cause around the 23rd of Nov the SOI dropped,and took out the Nina base state but rose shortly afterwards back towards NINA,so you'd have BN temps towards the middle of Dec but this would be transient because afterwards a few days the SOI would rise again.But the large fall the last few days would tell you it could get rather cold right before X-Mas unlike some of what the models seemingly show,but other teleconnections still play apart

Strong blocking into the Western Aluetians,Bearing Sea being shown would pump up a +PNA but where does the Trough Axis set up,definite cold look towards the Mid month

Not sure the MJO is really stalling out,its during the next few days the signal is getting nothing but constructive interference from Kelvin.Rossby.CFS has been showing this for several days now

Nothing but rain here,gonna be over by the looks pretty soon,back edge is closing in