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jaxjagman

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  1. jaxjagman
    Guess ill give up on the MJO being more adavanced,it dont seem to have much support,the next 10 days the Euro ensembles are pretty much bunched up into the WP
  2. jaxjagman
    I busted my ass on the ice trying to get the trash to the curb.Trash hasnt ran in 2 weeks so i had to try but it didn't work,sprained my left knee and left wrist,no broke bones anyways
  3. jaxjagman
    It seems that way.There is some slight differences.When we saw the last jet extension(+EAMT)in Dec the GWO gained momentum we also saw the MJO strenghten into WH headed towards Africa,this time looks different and with question marks.The GWO is certainly,seemingly gaining momentum compared to in Dec but questions still loom where the MJO is going.Also around Christmas the SOI was more coupled with a NINO 25 Dec 2023 1009.91 1007.95 -9.13 -3.78 -6.83 24 Dec 2023 1007.62 1009.15 -27.25 -3.37 -6.80 23 Dec 2023 1006.15 1009.45 -36.43 -2.68 -6.55 The SOI in late Dec(top) was more coupled with Nino.Soi as of late(bottom) looks like we are in a NINA 21 Jan 2024 1010.18 1003.25 10.93 5.24 -1.69 20 Jan 2024 1010.92 1003.10 15.13 3.85 -1.89 19 Jan 2024 1011.60 1002.65 20.45 2.87 -2.30 18 Jan 2024 1011.14 1002.35 19.70 2.12 -2.79 The GWO is certainly on the rise but compared to this time Oh well its just a waiting game it seems.I posted the GWO for comparison to around Christmas time,its really similar right now
  4. jaxjagman
    Still curious about the MJO.GEFS show a +EAMT as the MJO goes into the Pac its enhances the Jet extension into the Pac,as it leaves the Jet retracts back towards Asia
  5. jaxjagman
    Guess he had enough of social media,well this just sucks https://twitter.com/burgwx
  6. jaxjagman
    Seriously is the MJO gonna be where the Euro seems to be at?Euro mean and CFS look quite similar with the MJO progression
  7. jaxjagman
    Its just my interpretation of where the MJO could/should be at as be head into Feb
  8. jaxjagman
  9. jaxjagman
    Pretty sure it stays at 32
  10. jaxjagman
    It should be misting here for a bit longer,it never has been shown to be a strong system,very little QPF,higher elevations can always get upslope
  11. jaxjagman
    Here is a good OBS site if anyone is looking for one,its pretty good to a sense https://weatherobs.com/
  12. jaxjagman
    It just started snowing in SE Mo,crazy system
  13. jaxjagman
    Depends where youre at
  14. jaxjagman
    Still think you can get some more snow.The inverted trough that helped with the warm nose,the cold front is stationary,we could get a few flakes here maybe but seems to me the higher elevations could get something,wont be much but it seems to me you could squeeze maybe a tenth or so before it done.That map is a hour old
  15. jaxjagman
    You still could get a bit more snow,there still is moisture to the west,its not totally dry
  16. jaxjagman
    you should stay snow now
  17. jaxjagman
    Warm nose was/is more extensive than shown,its all the way up into S/Ky they should be all snow but its rain
  18. jaxjagman
    Still jus rains ,here we was at 32 then when it seemed the qpfs rose the temps rose to 34,now at 32 again.By the looks we should change over to ip,sn for a brief time before it ends,dont think ill drive anywhere tonight
  19. jaxjagman
    Nothing but virga here
  20. jaxjagman
    wInds are east here,S already in West Tn,NW in east,just going by the NWS OBS
  21. jaxjagman
    We will see,but it sure looks like its gonna be more progressive,MJO
  22. jaxjagman
    Still don't' believe the Euro is right with the MJO.it's having distructive interference from the CCKW in the Maritime right now and in the end it will be in the WH much quicker than its showing
  23. jaxjagman
    CFS has been much faster with the signal,shows it getting into the WH before or about the next 2-weeks
  24. jaxjagman
    GTH Outlook Discussion Last Updated - 01/16/24 Valid - 01/24/24 - 02/06/24 Following a period of weakening over the Indian Ocean earlier this month, the MJO became much more organized during the past week. Latest RMM observations show the MJO signal propagating eastward into the Maritime Continent (phase 4), and steadily gaining amplitude, which is well reflected by a reemerging wave-1 pattern in the 200-hPa velocity potential anomaly fields. A large uptick in MJO amplitude is heavily favored in the dynamical models during the next week, which appears to be tied to constructive interference with a convectively coupled Kelvin Wave propagating out of the Indian Ocean. This wave phasing is likely to promote widespread enhanced convection over the Maritime Continent, which has been otherwise persistently dominated by a suppressed convective El Nino response. Even with the MJO continuing to destructively interfere with the low frequency El Nino conditions, intraseasonal activity is largely favored to remain coherent during the next several weeks. Very good agreement exists in the RMM forecasts depicting a high amplitude event propagating eastward into the Western Pacific during the next two weeks, where the MJO looks to eventually constructively interfere again with base state over the Equatorial Pacific. Ensemble spread increases in the extended range, however many solutions (especially the GEFS) continue to maintain a high amplitude event, taking the MJO signal back into the Western Hemisphere by the first or second week of February. A healthy, eastward propagating MJO is expected to provide increasingly favorable conditions for Tropical Cyclone (TC) development over parts of the southern Indian Ocean, as well as the Western Pacific on both sides of the Equator. And in light of aforementioned convective pattern reversal favored over the Maritime Continent in the near term, this could induce a stronger MJO teleconnection in the extratropics downstream. Wintertime Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent MJO events typically lead to the development of anomalous mid-level ridging with warmer than normal temperatures over the central and eastern U.S. This is consistent with the latest week-2 guidance, however there is also both model and historical support for the associated anomalous mid-level ridging to retrograde over western North America with time, potentially allowing for the return of colder than normal temperatures over parts of the U.S. heading into February.
  25. jaxjagman
    Euro seems to be showing more of a inverted trough into Mid Tn compared to the GFS,thats why you dont see such a strong LLJ into Mid Tn,its snow to the north and mixing towards the AL/Tn line here in Mid Tn.GFS
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