jaxjagman

I know,i posted this in our severe thread earlier,its kinda like 2023

Right,the MJO right now you should look at whats driving the pattern,even the ensembles havent been very good in the long range this winter,its been a weird winter sorta speaking

There is so much crap going on this winter,its really hard to trust any model,we've been pushing back cold since Nov and seems to be maybe doing this again,you throw off one piece of the puzzle it throws off everything

Not that its not already chaos,just more..lol

Chaos again with the MJO signal,alot of stuff going on as we get into the New Year with the Rossby Wave train and Kelvin Waves

Wonder what this severe season will look like? The pattern oddly enough resembles 2023.During the winter of 2022-23,there was also a AR during that winter.Yes,AR'S can be had in NINAS,but are still more common in NINO'S. The latest charts today show NINO is peeping around the corner,while the subsurface in the east still have some cold pockets -2-3C mainly in the east,so it's not going away yet Not saying 2023 will happen again but it still is sorta a good analog year.Of course,there is also a chance of a SSWE later in the winter season

Has NINA actually not peaked,i mean the East is warning and the west gets cooler each day

Kinda like wash rinse and repeat,with Rossby and Kelvin Waves along with the standing wave in this regions for months it seems close to the MC

Decent look after the next couple days,you should be looking at a pattern change the next couple days.As this trough passes through Russia/Mongolia,models continue to show rising heights in this region for several days,just get ready for some moderation into the first week of Jan,throughs into Mongolia/Russia mean ridge building into the Koreas,so you should/could be seeing a -PNA for a brief time

I took my shit down this morning while it was warm..lol SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Sunday) Issued at 1100 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025 After an intensely foggy morning, it`s cloudy and very muggy out there. Temperatures have warmed into the low 60s so far and will make at run at 70 by this afternoon. The remainder of today will be cloudy and dry as the ridge responsible for our spell of above- normal warmth finally shifts to our east. Behind the exiting ridge will come a fairly strong upper low that will push a strong cold front through Middle TN Sunday night. Ahead of the frontal passage, flow aloft will transition out of the southwest, drawing anomalously high moisture into the area. Looking at soundings, instability overall is very limited with less than 100 J/kg and profiles are totally saturated. With that being said, a 60 kt low- level jet will be in place as this line moves through, and if any of that wind can mix down, there will be a chance for a gusts up to 40-50 mph with the line. With regards to any tornado potential, the threat is very, very low. Low-level helicities and shear are more than sufficient, but limited instability and weak lapse rates will make tor development very difficult. The most likely scenario is that a narrow band of heavy rain and gusty winds will move through tomorrow night between 7pm-1am. Non-thunderstorm gradient winds will be gusty tomorrow as the surface low moves across our north. There will be a steady breeze with gusts up to 35 mph at times. Here`s your notice now to get those outdoor Christmas decorations down!

Thx,you dont piss anyone off here,glad you post here

Wait a minute,i remember this storm now.The LP came from Middle MS and rode trough Cen Alabama into Ga,this caused a deformation band into North Alabama,we just moved from Jacksonville to Lawrecrmburg.Tn,we got 8" from that storm

TBH,thats not a clipper by reanalysis

Thats crazy,you sure this wasnt from LP?I i mean clippers are weak until they hit the Plateau,in general if you get 2 inches here thats a nice clipper.I remember tho when i lived in Lawrenceburg we got the lake effect snow from the Great Lakes that lasted about three days,didnt add up to much,i got tired of it snowing,didnt even hardly put a dusting down,just light snow or flakes

I wouldnt be to concerned with a ice storm,maybe next winter,We in Mid Tn and W/TN get ice storms from a NINO not NINA,plus this a more East based LaNina,the east gets all that and more than likely more snow

Yeah it not easy for you guys,its all with the trough axis and this has alot to do with the NAO,we never do good here in Mid Tn with clippers,we get very little and watch them explode as it gets into the Cumberland

Better than whats its been,we are getting rid of "The Pig" like @Flashcalled the Bering Sea ridge,just getting rid of that is a still a plus,we are fixing to have an active STJ,which could produce,just dont want to bury it or its hoping for clippers,we just live in precarious part of the lower 48 generally in winter there is a cutoff 1-40N-S,we just have to have the perfect setup,its not easy as many people think in Tn,alot can go wrong

I'm kinda like you,screw the cold if its not gonna snow.Kinda of like a cross hair tho,if you dont have cold you dont have snow.Our predicted high in Nashville is 74 Sunday,the record here is 75 back all the way into 1874,that's nuts

There is plenty of blocking into Mongolia/Russia,the problem to me is with the blocking into the Barents Sea.But the EPS looks better to me than yesterday,its much colder into Canada.It would even be better that the blocking into Barents goes into the Greenland Sea.But i guess it's baby steps maybe,we got rid of the Bering Sea ridge and now have a active STJ as @Houston mentioned

Thats not a warm look as we get into the the end of the first week of Jan

Buyt this should be more or less from the East Asia winter monsoon trough sorta speaking this shifts H from the Bering Sea into Siberia,Mongolia

I mean,Dec should even break Dec records for EQBO

This might be one of the most negative EQBO since we've seen into the early 40's into Jan,tho its still up in the air right now https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/qbo.data

This should be the real deal as we get into Jan,should see a change after that trough moves east,this cold spell is nothing but transient right now,you could possibly be fixing to see a more substantial one afterwards

You should see some teleconection sorta speaking of where of MJO will be for the next several days even tho its into the COD upcoming