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jaxjagman

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Everything posted by jaxjagman

  1. jaxjagman
    Think we can moderate some into the first week of Feb.some people say the MJO is gloom and doom when it gets into phase 3,its really not,see all the height falls into east China and the Koreas,IMHO thats not is not a warm look,we've seen this pattern since late fall into winter this year and it continues
  2. jaxjagman
    Oh, i'm so sorry to hear this.I didnt know,what happened?
  3. jaxjagman
    What you make your girls go measure the snow...lol..j/k
  4. jaxjagman
    Why couldnt you?Think the MJO becomes murky right now where it actually could go in later days,probably any model could be right ATM into the extended period.I was looking at the CFS and it shows two camps in the upcoming days,,believe it should be more advanced.Seems to me the IO will play games with the signal from the Rossby wave trains and Kelvin,thats just my thoughts,no forecast and i certainly could be wrong
  5. jaxjagman
    Euro is trying to kill my cold thinking towards the end of the month.Siberian ridge and heights pumped up into the AK,Bering Sea would be a more ridge in the east,hopefully this changes
  6. jaxjagman
    Should be one of the past several years we seen the PV so strong.More warming today per JMA,but the PV is still strong and by 10days on the Euro it looks more just tilted.Soon as the MJO gets out of the Maritime it should get sling shot back to the pole
  7. jaxjagman
    Not really,they only cover severe during prime time.But this is the classic for them still to this day
  8. jaxjagman
    Alot of people move in those parts the same as Florida to escape the cold in winter,guess that will backfire on them this year..lol
  9. jaxjagman
    lol...if we miss out on snow from the mid of next week until Feb im going to severe,systems seem close to every 3-4 days
  10. jaxjagman
    Probably the next shift will,hard to believe they they wouldnt put out a WWA for the mountains
  11. jaxjagman
    If the HRR is anywhere right there could we a weaker clipper riding the trough,least thats what im seeing,you can see this on its CAMS
  12. jaxjagman
    Maybe its about the same but you can still see when the LP gets into N/Carolina it is stronger Than the 12z was
  13. jaxjagman
    GFS has a stronger system with more wrap into East Tn this run
  14. jaxjagman
    Cumberland should be the jack pot as usual,if we get a dusing here i'd say it was a win
  15. jaxjagman
    Probably not like 2018,that was a wicked storm anyways
  16. jaxjagman
    That would be brutal in North Florida,maybe shades like the 2018 storm
  17. jaxjagman
    I think the MJO signal will get totally interfered with the next upcoming days and any model could be right TBH.IMHO like Carver said earlier the NAO will probably change the next several runs over and over, i still think temps could moderate some and towards the end of Jan it can get pretty cold again,depending on teleconnections
  18. jaxjagman
  19. jaxjagman
    Starting a new severe thread since the last one was back into 2021,plus we want to keep severe out of winter threads unless we get a severe threat at any time. But this looks like a potential active season right now ATM.Right now the IO is fixing to come pretty active the next few days in which should/ could possibly strenghten LaNina upcoming the next weeks ahead as we head into March. So post your Forecast and OBS from now on here please
  20. jaxjagman
    https://www.jacksonville.com/story/news/2023/12/20/snow-florida-record-snowfall-lowest-temperature-christmas-snowstorm-great-arctic-outbreak-record/71983060007/
  21. jaxjagman
    Lots of moving parts leading up to the end of next week,throwing one piece off the others will follow
  22. jaxjagman
    GFS is trying to put this year into the record books in Nashville
  23. jaxjagman
    It took it long enough to make some noise potentially.Should take more hits with the MJO going into the IO,Maritime
  24. jaxjagman
    Its pretty wild how we continue to see these troughs in East Asia.At first i thought it was because the warm SST'S but then i remembered some of these SST'S this year are breaking records from last year,but we didnt see anything like this pattern last winter,possibly the ENSO,seems possible,we did have a strong NINO
  25. jaxjagman
    Still think the JMA is right with the MJO,but i also think the Euro is also right ,just not as amped.If the CFS is anywhere right it does show a strong MJO into Africa and into the IO,but in a NINA base state the signal will get destructive interefrnce into the IO from waves that should totally disrupt the MJO signal when its actually moving forward Maybe i might be wrong but if teleconnections work out i really think our coldest temps of the season could be towards the end of the month..jmho
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