Jump to content

jaxjagman

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    8,720

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by jaxjagman

  1. jaxjagman
    Until the models can figure out the shortwave troughs,we'll continue to see changes each run
  2. jaxjagman
    Was looking at that also,impressive what the GFS is showing,gonna make the plumbers happy if its right
  3. jaxjagman
    Me too,just look at the MJO starting back Nov 25 with the CHI map i posted,we saw the strong Pac Jet coming off Asia,it shouldn't be as strong right now but its still coming by the models
  4. jaxjagman
    To add onto to this the MJO does a loop basically,this is from a strong Kelvin wave moving across Africa today and will enhance the MJO signal into the western IO
  5. jaxjagman
    I know,but where is the MJO actually gonna be at?Seems to me it has the potential as it goes into the Maritime to start heading back towards the COD with the possibility of going back into the NH much faster than the Euro is showing
  6. jaxjagman
    GFS looks like the Southern TN,North Alabama ice storm in 1996 where they lost power for weeks
  7. jaxjagman
  8. jaxjagman
    We didnt even get a sprinkle
  9. jaxjagman
    lol..yall hit the gold mine
  10. jaxjagman
    I dont think Nino is going to matter to much going forward,its still fairly strong right now
  11. jaxjagman
    Nah,we're good and no worries,I knew what you meant
  12. jaxjagman
    Yeah i know,i agree with you.I'm hoping it dont myself,almost showing shades of like 2020-21 sorta
  13. jaxjagman
    Finally updated today it looked good yesterday but not today
  14. jaxjagman
    hopefully we see our first snow of the year here .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Monday) Issued at 1240 PM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 A slow-moving closed upper-level low will be the main feature to watch through the extended. On Wednesday, this low slowly tracks southeastward through Missouri, and by late Wednesday night, shower activity may begin to develop across far northwest portions of our area. Showers spread eastward through Middle TN through the day on Thursday, and then likely become focused across the east by early Friday. This is a cold system so temperatures will fall with its arrival which of course has an impact on our precipitation type. With temperatures in the low to mid-30`s to start the day Thursday, precipitation will likely begin as a rain- snow mix before changing to primarily rain as temperatures warm into the 40`s. A changeover back to snow or a rain-snow mix would then be favored Thursday night and into Friday morning as temperatures fall again. As far as accumulations go, at this time it`s still not looking like anything to get too excited about. Model guidance is in disagreement about how far south the upper-level low will manage to track. The GFS and its ensembles in particular track a stronger, colder closed low directly overhead, and as such, have greater probabilities of accumulating snow. It`s definitely something to watch to see if that trend persists, but for now, am leaning towards the majority of guidance which doesn`t dig the low quite as far south. Rain and snow showers come to an end Friday as the closed low finally exits. By the end, best probabilities of accumulating snow will be along the Cumberland Plateau. Some locations in Fentress/Cumberland counties may receive accumulations near a half inch.
  15. jaxjagman
    https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/1739373353310265673/photo/1
  16. jaxjagman
    Mr,Bob dont speak much these days huh...lol...Merry Christmas to everyone !!
  17. jaxjagman
    Merry Christmas Mr.Bob,i see you lurking
  18. jaxjagman
    https://twitter.com/jfd118/status/1739256578346299588/photo/2
  19. jaxjagman
    Should be possibly a cold front around New Years day as a trough is going through East Asia today but the NAO looks +ive generally cold chasing rain right now look.Still looks like a -ve NAO/AO as we head towards wk 2 of Jan but the PNA is more neutral right now by the GEFS
  20. jaxjagman
    The SOI has crashed the last couple days 23 Dec 2023 1006.15 1009.45 -36.43 -2.68 -6.55 22 Dec 2023 1006.81 1009.00 -30.67 -2.01 -6.23 21 Dec 2023 1008.66 1007.70 -14.32 -1.59 -6.04 20 Dec 2023 1009.98 1006.70 -2.28 -1.72 -6.09 19 Dec 2023 1010.66 1006.85 0.47 -1.91 -6.36 18 Dec 2023 1010.45 1006.60 0.67 -1.87 -6.65 17 Dec 2023 1011.50 1006.35 7.42 -1.79 -6.95 16 Dec 2023 1011.48 1005.45 11.99 -2.04 -7.25 15 Dec 2023 1010.25 1005.75 4.05 -2.78 -7.56 By the looks of this afternoons GEFS it shows a ridge in East Asia around the New Year then followed by troughs.East Asia should turn cold again like several days ago but this time as it turns cold its showing better teleconnections for us.When it got cold in East Asia several days ago we was dealing with a +ve NAO/AO this time its quite opposite with a more -ve NAO/AO.But if everything holds we should see a ridge in the east into the first week of Jan then a chance to be colder as we get into wk2
  21. jaxjagman
    https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1738191160076554407/photo/1
  22. jaxjagman
    GFS is trying,but this is the fairytale time frame of it.
  23. jaxjagman
    I know,where does the MJO go when we get near the mid month of Jan?If the CFS is anywhere right,much of Jan shouldnt be that horrid
  24. jaxjagman
    Still looks like a strung out mess Christmas day.GFS got slightly better this afternoon,but it still looks like a mess
  25. jaxjagman
    Euro today at least shows the MJO headed into WP/WH around Christmas,we seemingly will have to wait maybe for some sort of pattern change for awhile.MV has a vid about the extratropics and MJO correlation if you wish to watch https://ams.confex.com/ams/95Annual/videogateway.cgi/id/29036?recordingid=29036
×
×
  • Create New...