jaxjagman

Long range the CFS continues to show the MJO starts to stenghten into the IO or Maritime towards the end of Jan into Feb,CFS has ben showing this for awhile it seems but it also shows a a decent KW which would seemingly be nothing but destructive interference but it does show it start to strengten the signal into a favorable patten into Feb..take it with a grain of salt right now

Seemingly we could have a warm up tho after this and another cool down right after with the Aleutiam High building in for a brief time as the MJO more or less retrogrades back into the WP maybe and loses it signals and hovers towards the COD/Map is the extratropics which seems to fit well with the RMM+1 into phase 8 MJO upcoming long range pattern shown by the models

6" so far,no complaints here

Just started

Nice should be here in min then

Still alot of precip in Ark

National Weather Service Nashville TN 155 PM CST Wed Jan 5 2022 .DISCUSSION... Today`s temperatures have rebounded to slightly warmer than normal levels, in the upper 40s and lower 50s with breezy winds. This is occurring ahead of an initially dry frontal passage this afternoon that will help set us up for wintry wx tomorrow. Lows tonight are expected to drop into the 20s areawide. By daybreak Thursday, a strong and intensifying H5 jet streak is forecast to be racing from the Central Plains toward Tennessee. At the same time, a surface low pressure area is expected to form across southern MS that will track northeastward along the Arctic front through central AL/GA into the Carolinas. Strong lift associated with both features atop the Arctic airmass will create widespread precipitation that will spread into Middle Tennessee starting around 10Z Thursday, covering the whole area by midday before quickly exiting during the afternoon as the surface low and upper shortwave depart. Forecast soundings from all available models continue to indicate all snow throughout the event along and north of I-40. South of I-40 and especially in the counties near the Alabama border, some forecast soundings (NAM, HRRR, SREF) show a warm nose at the onset of precip Thursday morning that will erode as precipitation spreads and cold advection increases. We think the cold air will win out with mostly low impacts from freezing rain and sleet. However, these warm nose situations often complicate our winter forecasts, so people in our southern counties should be prepared for the potential of at least some glaze development. Because of the mixed precip type, our southern counties should see the lowest snow totals with around 1 to possibly 2 inches. Along and north of I-40, we continue to forecast about 3 inches of snow. However, 12Z models have shown a substantial increase in qpf. This could translate to snow amounts pushing over 4 to maybe 6 inches for areas along and north of I-40 and this would require a Winter Storm Warning. Our reason for keeping the advisory in place is the sudden jump in model qpf. We would like to view updated model information this evening to see consistency before pushing these higher amounts. Since we are already pushing the upper bounds of advisory criteria, it is quite possible our evening or overnight crews may decide to issue a warning for parts of even much of our area with higher snowfall totals if models maintain support for it. Once snow gets going, temperatures will stay below freezing throughout the day on Thursday, with lows falling into the teens and single digits by Friday morning. Whatever ice/snow that falls will easily accumulate on roads and create hazardous travel conditions as we go through the day on Thursday and especially Thursday night into Friday morning. Although some sunshine is expected Friday, temperatures will struggle to climb beyond the 20s. lows Friday night will be very cold again, in the teens. An upper level ridge will build up quickly for Saturday with highs in the 40s. This is a little lower than previous forecasts and guidance since we expect a good deal of snow to be on the ground, holding back temp rises. The warm advection will continue Saturday night into Sunday, but the pattern will also bring moisture, meaning widespread rain showers. Another front will swing across the area Sunday evening. A brief flurry could occur as the cold front chases out the rain showers, but no accumulating snow. After this system, a return to cold, dry weather is expected for at least the first half of next week.

CF is closing in into MiD Tn

thats was old,disco,deleted it

Those southerly winds were quite brisk.We had snow still on our back deck right before dark,i went outside about 10pm,it was all gone.We hit 54 today,not sure it will go up much more

Looks like a adjustment was made to "OND So we now have a official Moderate Nina,unless further adjustment are made

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN 551 AM CST TUE JAN 4 2022 ...CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR DECEMBER, 2021... DECEMBER, 2021 WILL BE REMEMBERED AS ONE OF THE WARMEST DECEMBERS ON RECORD, AND ALSO FOR MULTIPLE OUTBREAKS OF SEVERE WEATHER AND TORNADOES ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THERE WERE 5 TORNADOES REPORTED DURING THE EARLY MORNING OF DECEMBER 6. A MUCH MORE DESTRUCTIVE OUTBREAK OCCURRED ON THE NIGHT OF DECEMBER 10-11, WHEN 17 TORNADOES TOUCHED DOWN, INCLUDING AN EF-3 AND TWO EF-2'S. THIS IS ONE OF THE LARGEST TORNADO OUTBREAKS EVER TO HAVE OCCURRED IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THIS WAS ALSO THE SECOND-WARMEST DECEMBER ON RECORD. IN NASHVILLE, THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE WAS 53.4 DEGREES, WHICH WAS 10.7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS 64.2 DEGREES AND THE AVERAGE LOW TEMPERATURE WAS 42.5 DEGREES. THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURE WAS 76 DEGREES ON CHRISTMAS DAY. THE LOWEST TEMPERATURE WAS 26 DEGREES ON THE 23RD. THERE WERE 9 DAYS ON WHICH THE TEMPERATURE DROPPED TO 32 DEGREES OR BELOW. RAINFALL ADDED UP TO 3.63 INCHES. THIS WAS 0.80 INCHES BELOW NORMAL. THE GREATEST 24-HOUR RAINFALL WAS 1.34 INCHES ON THE 5TH AND 6TH. THERE WERE 11 DAYS WITH MEASURABLE RAINFALL. THERE WAS NO SNOW. THERE WERE 6 DAYS WITH THUNDERSTORMS. THE FASTEST WIND GUST WAS 78 MPH ON THE 11TH. NASHVILLE FINISHED 2021 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 61.8 DEGREES. THIS WAS 1 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL. RAINFALL FOR 2021 WAS 59.32 INCHES, WHICH WAS 8.81 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL. IN CLARKSVILLE, THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE WAS 52.3 DEGREES, WHICH WAS 12.4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS 63.6 DEGREES AND THE AVERAGE LOW TEMPERATURE WAS 40.9 DEGREES. THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURE WAS 76 DEGREES ON THE 11TH, AND AGAIN ON CHRISTMAS DAY. THE LOWEST TEMPERATURE WAS 24 DEGREES ON THE 20TH. THERE WERE 11 DAYS ON WHICH THE TEMPERATURE DROPPED TO 32 DEGREES OR BELOW. RAINFALL ADDED UP TO 3.39 INCHES. THIS WAS 0.97 INCHES BELOW NORMAL. THE GREATEST 24-HOUR RAINFALL WAS 0.91 INCHES ON THE 5TH AND 6TH. THERE WERE 10 DAYS WITH MEASURABLE RAINFALL. THERE WERE 4 DAYS WITH THUNDERSTORMS. THE FASTEST WIND GUST WAS 61 MPH ON THE 11TH. A 53-MPH GUST WAS ALSO RECORDED ON THE 6TH. IN CROSSVILLE, THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE WAS 48.8 DEGREES, WHICH WAS 10.0 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS 58.5 DEGREES AND THE AVERAGE LOW TEMPERATURE WAS 39.1 DEGREES. THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURE WAS 70 DEGREES ON THE 3RD. THE LOWEST TEMPERATURE WAS 22 DEGREES ON THE 23RD. THERE WERE 12 DAYS ON WHICH THE TEMPERATURE DROPPED TO 32 DEGREES OR BELOW. RAINFALL ADDED UP TO 5.01 INCHES. THIS WAS 0.33 INCHES BELOW NORMAL. THE GREATEST 24-HOUR RAINFALL WAS 1.44 INCHES ON THE 29TH. THERE WERE 10 DAYS WITH MEASURABLE RAINFALL. THERE WERE 3 DAYS WITH THUNDERSTORMS. THE FASTEST WIND GUST WAS 47 MPH ON THE 11TH. CROSSVILLE FINISHED 2021 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 56.2 DEGREES. THIS WAS 0.9 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. RAINFALL FOR 2021 WAS 56.21 INCHES, WHICH WAS 1.32 INCHES BELOW NORMAL. THE OUTLOOK FOR JANUARY FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE CALLS FOR NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

Was wondering if yall get any snow where that low was tracking,saw it was bringing up a warm nose

Must be pretty windy now in the east,the gradient has really tightened up the past couple hrs

We got a couple inches,my oldest son is home from college so my kids went out and had a snowball fight,of course they threw one at me and i got into it at midnight

we might be getting a good convective band in a few min,stronger cell to out south tho

WPC post the Surface Analysis,spc post when ever they think is warrant

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=19&parm=pmsl

Use the mesoscale on spc

HRRR,is not doing a very good job..IMHO.Dont think i'd even look at it now

Convective band coming in from your SW,see if it grows

IP and SN now here