jaxjagman

Big hail

That's the cell i saw come ,but no rotation,yet

Mesoscale looks pretty unstable towards the TN/Ms line right now

Yeah DP'S per Meso West are showing 68 right now in Memphis

By Maryville?

Yeah,the link works

Oh nice !!

xcessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1157 AM EDT Sat Mar 27 2021 Day 1 Valid 16Z Sat Mar 27 2021 - 12Z Sun Mar 28 2021 ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH AND TENNESSEE VALLEY... 16z Update: No major changes needed to the ERO at this time. 12z HREF members and recent HRRR runs still support a Moderate risk from eastern AR, into northern MS/AL and much of TN. Portions of this area have already seen 1-3" of rain earlier today...and going into the event soil saturation values were already well above average. Thus antecedent conditions remain favorable for additional flash flooding. Currently we are generally in between forcing mechanisms, and a slight decrease in low level moisture transport should result in some weakening/broadening of the low level convergence axis. However, by mid to late afternoon we should begin to see an uptick in mid/upper forcing from the west, along with a renewed increase in low level moisture transport, helping re-intensify the convergence axis. Thus the flash flood risk will likely begin ramping up by mid/late afternoon into the evening hours. This uptick by mid/late afternoon into the evening is of high confidence. It is just late morning into early afternoon where the risk may temporarily become more isolated/scattered...but even during this period some flash flood risk is still expected to persist. The multiple convective rounds, combined with favorable antecedent conditions, supports a scattered to widespread flash flood event as we head through the evening hours. Embedded within this Moderate risk there may very well be a narrower axis that receives 6-9" of rainfall. If this does occur then a focused corridor of more significant and dangerous flash flooding is possible...with the greatest chance of this from far northern MS/AL into southwest/south central TN. Given amounts of this magnitude and already saturated conditions, High risk level impacts are certainly a possibility over a narrow axis. However, no upgrade with this update, as the localized nature and uncertainty supports maintaining a broader Moderate risk at this time. Chenard

been seeing some weak rotation towards the SW

Definite ping pongs,woke me up earlier

Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 425 PM EDT Fri Mar 26 2021 Day 2 Valid 12Z Sat Mar 27 2021 - 12Z Sun Mar 28 2021 ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... 2030 UTC Update... Have upgraded a portion of the Slight Risk to Moderate, based on the growing model consensus of where the heaviest rain is more likely to occur. There is still some spread -- not only with the CAMs (NAM Conus-Nest farther north), but also with the non-CAM guidance (NAM and GFS continue to be north of the EC/UKMet/CMC_reg consensus). The last several NBM runs in fact are also honing in on a max QPF axis within the upgraded Moderate Risk area. While not overlapping with the heaviest rainfall that fell farther south-southeast Thursday, the latest NASA SPoRT 0-100 cm soil moisture percentiles continue to be over 95% of normal within the Moderate Risk area, and as such there is a reflection of this in the reduced FFG values. The Moderate Risk was strategically placed across areas that can expect a decent slug of rainfall associated with the elevated convection ahead of the warm front, along with the subsequent linear segments expected overnight Sat-Sun where, given the uptick in southwesterly flow (50-60kts at 850 mb), some training is expected. Compared to this time yesterday, the thermodynamic parameters per the GEFS and SREF have increased, especially with more robust low-mid level moisture transport and flux anomalies. Some of the latest CAMs -- including the more recent 18Z HRRR -- show hourly rainfall rates of 1.5-2.5+ inches underneath the strongest cells from late Saturday afternoon through Sunday night ahead of the cold front. Some of the CAMs show isolated 24hr rainfall totals of 4-7+ inches, which would approach the 2-5 year ARI.

Figured i'd run with it.Could have actually extended yesterdays with this because it's still part of that storm with the boundary lifting Northward.Some uncertainty still how far the warm front will lift and where it will be,but every model i have seen shows it going into the lower OV at least. Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Fri Mar 26 2021 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible Saturday across the lower Mississippi through Tennessee Valley regions. All hazards are possible including large hail, damaging wind, and tornadoes. Potential for a strong tornado exists from eastern Arkansas into western Tennessee. Other severe storms are possible across a portion of the Midwest with isolated damaging wind and large hail the main threats. ...Synopsis... At upper levels, a southern stream shortwave trough will move through the southern High Plains into central Texas. A northern stream shortwave trough will amplify across the upper Midwest. These features will eventually phase late in the period near the Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a warm front in the Southeast will advance northward before slowing/stalling in the vicinity of the Tennessee Valley. A surface cyclone will deepen across Illinois and Wisconsin and bring a cold front through the upper Midwest southward into the lower Mississippi Valley. ...Lower Mississippi through Tennessee Valleys... Moisture return will be ongoing at the start of the period and through the day. With upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoint currently along the Gulf Coast, it seems probable that mid to upper 60s dewpoints will exist in the warm sector. Given potential for elevated thunderstorms to develop along the northward advancing warm front, there is some uncertainty as to how far north the effective boundary will be. Even so, surface heating should support boundary-layer destabilization with 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE by the afternoon. Effective shear will be strong at 50-65 kts. Organized storms will be capable of all severe hazards. The greatest potential for tornadoes and larger hail will exist with storms that develop on the slowing warm front where more cellular development would be possible. Later in the evening, the cold front will move through the region and damaging wind gusts will become the primary threat, though QLCS circulations will also be possible given adequate low-level shear profiles. ...Midwest... Mid-level cooling along with the northern stream trough will support storm development along the cold front during the afternoon. Limited boundary-layer moisture will keep buoyancy more marginal with northward extent, though 1000 J/kg MLCAPE is possible. Strong deep-layer wind profiles and cold temperatures aloft will support marginally severe hail and isolated damaging wind gusts. ...Carolinas... A broad region of southerly flow will develop south of a stalled front within the Carolina Piedmont region. Isolated storms may develop along/near the boundary. Effective shear of 40-50 kts and relatively steep mid-level lapse rates will bring potential for marginally severe hail and damaging wind gusts. Wind gust potential will be maximized where parcels are surface based along and south of the boundary. ..Wendt.. 03/26/2021

We just missed it here,it went warned just as it passed us,heard some rocks hitting the house but when i looked outside it stopped

Decent rotation now

Tornado Nolensville

We got some hail out of that but not 2 "

Some rotation south of nolensville

Rotation north of Fairview now

Waynesboro is now a PDS

Rotation now east of Duck River

Mesoscale Discussion 0261 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0445 PM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021 Areas affected...central AL Concerning...Tornado Watch 50... Valid 252145Z - 252245Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 50 continues. SUMMARY...A corridor for a long track intense to potentially violent tornado is expected to maximize through the next hour across central AL. DISCUSSION...An intense tornadic supercell located over Hale County will likely remain unimpeded as it moves to the east-northeast across central AL during the next 1-2 hours. The near-storm environment is currently primed across central AL with 0-1 km SRH at 600 m2/s2 per observed storm motion according to the KBMX VAD. Given the very moist/strongly sheared environment, expecting a long-track intense (EF3+) and potentially violent tornado to continue east-northeast and reach the I-65 corridor over the next hour or so. ..Smith.. 03/25/2021

Oh my,SW of Birmingham