Newman

Dumping snow here. Probably have a half inch, maybe more.

Are you guys in these yellow/orange echos?

Yeah maybe it was just a quick burst of sleet because now it's snowing pretty consistently here.

Snow and sleet has begun. I think most areas will start off with sleet/snow mix and then once the heavier echos come in then all snow.

Let's enjoy every flake guys. Not often we see snow in mid-November.

I think virga will be kept to a minimum with that strong WAA push. There will be some, but not as much as we would normally expect with such dry dews.

The 3k NAM says watch out even down to Philly Friday morning around 6am as the ULL backside pulls through

This forecast still stands. Cut back for those SE of Philly to C-1" at most of sleet/snow.

Don't worry about the snow maps with this storm. The NAM shows 1.25" of liquid for a lot of SE PA. At 10 to 1 that's 12" of snow. Ratios will be 8 to 1 so make it 10 inches of snow. Cut it in half to account for sleet and you get 5" of snow and almost 2" of sleet and/or freezing rain accretion.

I'm hyped. It's only mid-November and we're tracking THIS. Check out the 700 fronto on the NAM. We all will be thumping heavy snow during the evening commute Thursday.

Wow the NAM keeps NW areas around the Lehigh Valley 90%-100% frozen throughout the storm. Lets go.

This map is more realistic: Still, it's literally mid-November and we are tracking a legit snow/ice storm. Anything to cover the grass is a win for me.

Sun angle in November is pretty low so that's good. Temps will be down into the mid-upper 20s Wednesday night and Thursday morning. However, we might lose a lot of our initial precip to virga due to how low the dewpoints are.

Wow Bernie Rayno is all over this threat. He says the initial WAA isn't the main story but rather the CCB and ULL swing through on Friday morning. If you want to watch his periscope, it is on his twitter. He circled SE PA up into Central and Northern NJ and just north of NYC as the bullseye for potentially 3-6" and locally 8". He basically said to never ever trust a closed ULL. Also, I'm sure you guys know that the 18z Para GFS snow map includes sleet. It would be nice to get 15" of snow in mid November but it's not happening lol.

My forecast at the moment would be: Philly on SW to the coast C-2" at most of snow, mostly sleet so probably less, and then over to a chilly rain. Philly on NW to the Lehigh Valley 2-4" of snow, to sleet and freezing rain, then ending as a chilly rain. Lehigh Valley on NW into NE PA 4-8" of snow, then to sleet and freezing rain. Depending on low-level cold, storm may remain frozen throughout. This all depends on initial onset of precip and how strong the low-level cold hangs on. I think sleet/freezing rain will be the predominant precip with the easterly winds off the coast in the mid-levels. In fact, my snow forecasts are probably too high but it's still 3-4 days away. The Ukie and Euro are much colder and snowier than the GFS and CMC.

Yep guidance is hanging back a piece of energy off of the Tuesday storm. If the great lakes low gets out of the way and the High Pressure up north trends stronger, which typically happens, then an inland CAD event could take shape next week before a bit of a warm up to end November. I expect "winter" starts 2nd week of December, but looking at the MJO progression, we could see a trough back in the east by very early December.

I think most if not all of us away from the coast will see snow in the 12-14th time frame. Whether accumulation occurs or not is still in the air but don't be surprised to see snowflakes next week. Courtesy of NSFW Weather: I would say the purple areas is actual accumulation and the blue areas is snow falling and/or coatings-1".

Congrats Western PA on the 18z GFS. Storm signal is there for something in the 14th-15th time frame.

I agree with all of your points and can see your hesitance. However, I believe the +PNA and EPO region will feature a predominant ridging pattern on the west coast. The warmer waters in the North Pacific should allow for a strong +PNA look throughout the majority of the winter, rather than having it be sporadic and transient. Just my opinion, however. One of my biggest concerns is the negatives out towards Hawaii. If the negatives pull west too much, then the western US ridge will be pulled too far offshore and the eastern trough will be oriented too far west in the Midwest and feature too many coastal hugging storms and/or deep interior show bombs. Basically where you see the EPS map above is where you want to see everything oriented. I would like to see -AO pop with blocking in the arctic region, trapping the trough underneath. However, the Scandinavian blocking should do the trick. I love this look.

The colder water in the Indian Ocean is going to play big dividends this winter. If it persists, I don't see the MJO coming out of favorable phases 8, 1, 2 and 3 too often. Modoki continues to form, even saw a WWB earlier this week which will help build the SST's up a bit. Would like if the eastern areas of the ENSO were a bit colder. Long range shows trough in the east with chances of snow, even closer towards the coast. Scandi blocking is also evident and i would bet we see that alot this winter. I'm loving what I'm seeing heading into November and this winter at the moment.

Too many mets and knowledgeable enthusiasts to name specifically, but almost ALL winter forecasts I have seen expect a trough/colder weather on the EC and a snowier pattern. The ENSO state, solar state, EPO state, North Pacific Warm Blob, etc. all have corresponding analogs that point to a decent winter. I've seen 2002-03 thrown around a bit. The only worry I have is a lack of Atlantic cooperation and the heavy reliance on Pacific drivers. BUT, the Pacific is more important on our weather than the Atlantic is. I think we'll see the positives over the north pacific bridge across Canada into the NAO region regardless and trap the trough underneath. The QBO right now is negative and trending positive, a possible worrying feature but it is only one piece of the puzzle and will likely be muted out with the other factors. I think the pattern continues to step down rather traditionally into winter. I could see December being decent snowfall wise, January taking a bit of a break, and February/March rounding out the winter strong. We'll see if any SSWE begin to take shape this winter which could throw a wrench into the equation. Nice seeing some of you guys again!

Guys, the old GFS is completely on it's own now. EURO/UKMET/ICON/CMC/NEW GFS all landfall down into SC/NC. In fact the EPS members coming in right now are all into SC or NC as well. Could we get some gusty remnants later on? Sure. But a landfall north of the OBX is looking very unlikely at this point. Good luck to North Carolina on this one. The coastline is going to get destroyed by the MH force winds and inland will get 10-20" of rain. Insane really.

I haven't posted here much summer cause nothing has warranted me to. However, the flooding today in and around Berks County is incredible. Ponds and streams everywhere overflowing their banks and now making new streams and ponds. In other news, Joe Bastardi is calling for an epic winter. Already getting his unbearable and unneeded hype up for the winter season.

Could Someone explain why Greenland ice is at a record level with regards to surface mass balance? If there is any sign for this to decrease and get back to normal levels, what is it?